USA National debt potential default in 2025-2026This parabola show exponential increasing US national debt, they cannot stop it.
Debt
AUD/USDThis is just to track my purchase of AUD today. I expect it to appreciate vs the EUR and USD over the coming months;
Australia is significantly exposed to commodity prices, which as showing signs of recovery, and
Australia has government debt at lower levels than most of the rest of the OECD (I have seen % levels ranging fro 40.5 to 66% - depending on the source) esp Canada, the U.S., U.K, and Japan and will be better positioned to react in a global economic downturn. Just reading an interesting report based on a late 2018 survey of 140+ financial advisors (www.invesco.com.au). At that time 77% expected the markets to change direction within the following 2 years.
I find it interesting that stats.oecd.org does not update publicly available government debt levels any more.
The number 1 concern was sovereign debt, #4 corporate debt levels, #5 consumer debt levels,
#2 & 3 were an emerging market crisis and china debt levels respectively. 4 out of the top 5 reasons for an expected downturn were explicitly based on excessive debt levels (of course it could be 5/5 as an emerging market crisis is expected to be caused by debt levels also). Despite my general aversion to fiat currencies I have chosen AUD notes as a worthwhile, relatively safe, and liquid hedge.
Enjoy and protect those funds everyone
Its not getting a lift anytime soon.. Where to start? The loss of $900,000,000 a year? The loss per share of $9.02? A growing impatience and anger with Lyft drivers? I believe people must have thought that Lyft would pop at IPO but its been declining since going public. Except the same with Uber, as they lose almost double that of Lyft every year. Ride-sharing companies are not a sound investment and they have plateaued in terms of innovation. Sadly, ride-share companies severely hurt taxi and black car services, putting many out of business because of how popular it became. So, this means ride-sharing is doing good? At a loss of $900,000,000 - $1,800,000,000 dollars.. no one is profiting. Not taxi, black car, or ride share companies and neither the drivers. Lyft will need to raise prices on rides soon or face problems with liquidity as well as mass driver walk-away. Once they raise prices, the advantage of ride-sharing will disappear. If you are holding at IPO price, it's better to take a loss because it doesn't seem like Lyft will be coming up anytime soon. There are almost no new products, markets, or innovations that Lyft can come up with to bring in a boost in share prices and optimism. This one is a major sell. The line includes days of up and down, but it will fizzle away.
Target ? $25 or lower.. where it will play around flat until some major announcement will spike it up, than fizzle away again. How fast? No one knows.. December showed us how a bear market and fear come into play, things could go south in a matter of days when fear comes into play.
$IVZ Strategies on a Value Growth StockIVZ has low P/E, D/E, and P/B ratios, despite growing revenue and dividends. Therefore, my 5 year outlook is bullish. I suspect the best times to buy are around a low of $19.40 for a short turnaround, but the price may get as low as $18.58 in as little as 2-3 weeks if the impulse from Jan-Feb echos the latest high.
Other possible low points for the suspected echo impulse, using fib levels, are 18.65, 18.93, 19.14, and 19.29. Pyramiding your buys using these levels should give a relatively low average position for long term growth, which can be sold off, probably during the year, for a profit to adjust the weight in the portfolio back to a reasonable level to meet your portfolio diversity goals. Despite the effort in averaging down and out, I do believe it is a worthy strategy to reap greater returns rather than buying once when it looks good.
The average price per book value for this stock is less than one and averages greater than 1.65, according to Yahoo. To reach equivalent value if book value remained constant, which it will not, the factor is 1.8x. Earnings are expected to rise, so book value itself will rise over time. Book value has risen 50% in the past ten years, so a 5 year price target given today's suspected low and a 1.2x oversold factor (because who sells at value?) will be 19.40*1.8*1.25*1.2 = $52.38 or about a 170% return on investment, plus another $6 in 5 year straight dividends at $0.30 per quarter.
Due to the volatility and bullish/bearish runs with bulls beating bears in the end, this makes a great swing trading opportunity. When the stock trends above 1.67% monthly or 0.38% weekly, the stock is performing greater than its exponential averages:
Average Exponential Monthly (%) Growth: (2.7^(1/(12*5))-1)*100 = 1.67%
Average Exponential Weekly (%) Growth: (2.7^(1/(365/7*5))-1)*100 = 0.38%
This is likely to occur now and less likely over the course of 5 years. Therefore, linear price increments may be more useful in determining rapid growth in earlier stages. In which case, when the stock trades above $0.55 a month or $0.13, the stock is performing better than its linear averages:
Average Monthly ($) Growth: (52.38-19.4)/(5*12) = $0.55
Average Weekly ($) Growth: (52.38-19.4)/(5*365/7) = $0.13
Right now, we are in a bit of a bull swing since Dec 24th, as with most (financial sector) stocks. There is some potential to ride this out for a while, so adjust your alerts to watch for the bear once it crosses down on the average expected growths. This stock has a tendency to go up in the early mornings around 10:00AM, so that would be your time to sell if the previous week was low and would not be your time to get hopeful.
Gold target range 15000-45000 USD: fundamental discussionThis chart depicts the gold price in dollar for the next decades.
As a background it is highly recommended to view my idea here:
This chart depicts the US gold reserves divided by the interest on debt.
The interest on debt is calculated as a proxy by multiplying the 10 year interest rate with the total federal debt.
Whether this is accurate or not is not so important as we just want to compare this ratio with its historic values.
It is important to note that official US gold reserves have remained unchanged since the closing of the gold window in the early 70's.
This metric has risen and fallen quite a bit.
First this metric rose during the stagflation of the late 70's.
The gold reserve of 262 million ounces hit a high of 222 billion whilst the yield did a first peak to 13.5% with the debt, barely over 900 billion our proxy interest was about 120 billion and thus the gold reserve was almost able to pay it off twice.
It is my belief that the rise in gold prices and with it the value of the US gold reserves is what cooled the debt market causing it to revert course into a 4 decade long bull.
Interest rates plummeted, federal debt rose faster, and gold also went down in price.
At the turn of the century gold found itself trading at 290 dollar, the gold reserve reduced to 76 billion, the US debt grown to close to 6 trillion and the treasury rate reduced but at times peaking to close to 7%, the ratio hit a low of just 0.2 years of interest on debt that could be paid by the gold reserve.
The next 11 years were marked with a continuing of the bond bull run whilst also gold rallied to a new all time high.
By 2011 and 2012 the ratio hit close to 2 years again thanks to gold trading at 1800 and the yield as low as 1.5%.
Since then, rising yields and declining gold prices have hit this ratio back to about the middle range.
Technically, not much can be said where we go from here so we'll have to take a look at the fundamentals.
While multiplying the 10yr with the debt is a nice workaround to picture the interest on debt by tradingview the real interest on debt is more difficult to compute.
The US debt consists of bonds with various denominations running from 30 year bonds to bonds with maturities of less than 1 year.
This means that of the 30 year bonds, most have been issued in the 1990's and 2000's and the interest paid on them is the yield of those bond at the time of issuing.
In fact the 30 year bonds that are maturing today have been issued exactly 30 years ago with a yield of almost 9%.
When they mature, they are rolled over in new bonds that -even if we had a small tick upwards in the last couple of years) - have a significantly lower interest of just over 2%.
The same holds for 10 year bonds which 10 years ago had a yield of 3-4% vs 2.6% today.
This effect is what caused the actual interest on debt (www.treasurydirect.gov) to not even double from 214 billion/year in 1988 to just 402 billion/year as recent as 2015 whilst the federal debt exploded over 20 fold from 900 billion to 19 trillion dollars.
However, all good stories must come to an end and this one is no different.
The bond market has been topping out for the better part of a decade now and yields have seen some upward momentum.
This has meant that a lot of treasury auctions saw the treasury forced to roll over their 5, 3 and 1 year bonds into new bonds with a higher yield than the old one.
Whilst the treasury can steer and man-oeuvre a little bit by opting to sell short term bonds when yields are high and long term bonds when yields are low there is ultimately no escape from market reality.
This has become clearly evident from the last prints of interest expenses on debt outstanding that have risen with 9.1% per year for the last 3 years and show now signs of abating with another 8.6% rise for the first five months of this financial year. This is in stark contrast with the 2.36% increase of the previous 27 years.
I would venture to guess that if nothing is done on a policy level to tackle the accumulating debt and rock the bond markets gently to sleep once more we will enter a spiral of increased debt issuance met with stable or declining demand which will push up yields which in turn will create the need of issuing more debt. This viscous circle will only end through a spectacular rise in the price of gold.
In a previous analysis I had already outlined a possible scenario of the 10 yr yield hitting its magnet level of 7% by 2025.
Given the current debt of 22 trillion, which is increasing at 1 trillion a year, it seems likely that by the start of 2025 we will be looking to a national debt in excess of 30 trillion dollar.
At a ratio of 1.8 for our gold reserve to interest expense on debt ratio we learn that the US gold reserve should be valued at 3.8 trillion dollars.
For this gold would need to rise to at least 14500 dollar.
If for some reason the debt markets stay irrational for a very long time before going in overdrive it could very well be that the US ends up with a 50 trillion dollar debt by 2035 when this scenario fully comes to fruition.
In such a scenario I see no reason to expect that the 10 yr yield would only stay limited to 7% but could easily hit the 1980 value of 13.5% again.
In order to calm the debt markets at these yields and these levels of debt gold would have to rise to about 45000 dollar to repeat the 1980 scenario.
Hold on to your horses.
Gold reserves measured in years of interest on debtThis chart depicts the US gold reserves divided by the interest on debt.
The interest on debt is calculated as a proxy by multiplying the 10 year interest rate with the total federal debt.
Whether this is accurate or not is not so important as we just want to compare this ratio with its historic values.
It is important to note that official US gold reserves have remained unchanged since the closing of the gold window in the early 70's.
This metric has risen and fallen quite a bit.
First this metric rose during the stagflation of the late 70's.
The gold reserve of 262 million ounces hit a high of 222 billion whilst the yield did a first peak to 13.5% with the debt, barely over 900 billion our proxy interest was about 120 billion and thus the gold reserve was almost able to pay it off twice.
It is my belief that the rise in gold prices and with it the value of the US gold reserves is what cooled the debt market causing it to revert course into a 4 decade long bull.
Interest rates plummeted, federal debt rose faster, and gold also went down in price.
At the turn of the century gold found itself trading at 290 dollar, the gold reserve reduced to 76 billion, the US debt grown to close to 6 trillion and the treasury rate reduced but at times peaking to close to 7%, the ratio hit a low of just 0.2 years of interest on debt that could be paid by the gold reserve.
The next 11 years were marked with a continuing of the bond bull run whilst also gold rallied to a new all time high.
By 2011 and 2012 the ratio hit close to 2 years again thanks to gold trading at 1800 and the yield as low as 1.5%.
Since then, rising yields and declining gold prices have hit this ratio back to about the middle range.
Technically, not much can be said where we go from here so we'll have to take a look at the fundamentals.
While multiplying the 10yr with the debt is a nice workaround to picture the interest on debt by tradingview the real interest on debt is more difficult to compute.
The US debt consists of bonds with various denominations running from 30 year bonds to bonds with maturities of less than 1 year.
This means that of the 30 year bonds, most have been issued in the 1990's and 2000's and the interest paid on them is the yield of those bond at the time of issuing.
In fact the 30 year bonds that are maturing today have been issued exactly 30 years ago with a yield of almost 9%.
When they mature, they are rolled over in new bonds that -even if we had a small tick upwards in the last couple of years) - have a significantly lower interest of just over 2%.
The same holds for 10 year bonds which 10 years ago had a yield of 3-4% vs 2.6% today.
This effect is what caused the actual interest on debt (www.treasurydirect.gov) to not even double from 214 billion/year in 1988 to just 402 billion/year as recent as 2015 whilst the federal debt exploded over 20 fold from 900 billion to 19 trillion dollars.
However, all good stories must come to an end and this one is no different.
The bond market has been topping out for the better part of a decade now and yields have seen some upward momentum.
This has meant that a lot of treasury auctions saw the treasury forced to roll over their 5, 3 and 1 year bonds into new bonds with a higher yield than the old one.
Whilst the treasury can steer and man-oeuvre a little bit by opting to sell short term bonds when yields are high and long term bonds when yields are low there is ultimately no escape from market reality.
This has become clearly evident from the last prints of interest expenses on debt outstanding that have risen with 9.1% per year for the last 3 years and show now signs of abating with another 8.6% rise for the first five months of this financial year. This is in stark contrast with the 2.36% increase of the previous 27 years.
I would venture to guess that if nothing is done on a policy level to tackle the accumulating debt and rock the bond markets gently to sleep once more we will enter a spiral of increased debt issuance met with stable or declining demand which will push up yields which in turn will create the need of issuing more debt. This viscous circle will only end through a spectacular rise in the price of gold.
In a previous analysis I had already outlined a possible scenario of the 10 yr yield hitting its magnet level of 7% by 2025.
Given the current debt of 22 trillion, which is increasing at 1 trillion a year, it seems likely that by the start of 2025 we will be looking to a national debt in excess of 30 trillion dollar.
At a ratio of 1.8 for our gold reserve to interest expense on debt ratio we learn that the US gold reserve should be valued at 3.8 trillion dollars.
For this gold would need to rise to at least 14500 dollar.
If for some reason the debt markets stay irrational for a very long time before going in overdrive it could very well be that the US ends up with a 50 trillion dollar debt by 2035 when this scenario fully comes to fruition.
In such a scenario I see no reason to expect that the 10 yr yield would only stay limited to 7% but could easily hit the 1980 value of 13.5% again.
In order to calm the debt markets at these yields and these levels of debt gold would have to rise to about 45000 dollar to repeat the 1980 scenario.
Hold on, its going to be a hell of a ride.
The American dream is a nightmare - Trump cool aid running out.In this screencast I review briefly some headline issues that point to deep troubles affecting the American economy. I look at the Dow Transportation Index which appears to be leading Wall Street in a southward direction.
My list of troubles for America is not exhaustive - so I may well have missed something of greater importance. Do share other facts if you know more.
If others know of reasons for optimism on the US Economy I would be willing to learn more. So far, I've not been able to find anything of true substance to support optimism.
This post is compliant with Tradingview's house rules on text-based posts.
Interest Rate Spikes Precede CorrectionsNotice the downward trend in the US10Y since the 80's, while government, corporate and consumer debt has exploded to all time highs. The achilles heel of massive debt levels are high interest rates, which end up causing slowed growth and economic contraction. With ever higher levels of debt, the level of interest required to put the economy in pain falls over time - thus why we see crashes and corrections even as the US10Y spikes to levels far below the historical average (~6.18%).
Last year we popped above the "danger zone" trend line and we saw what happened. Watch out for interest rate spikes, it can save your ass.
RAY DALIO SCENARIO - FEELS LIKE 1937?"History doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes."Ray Dalio often likes to talk about debt cycles.
Specifically, he has referenced that our economic climate can be compared to 1937.
Similarities:
End of long-term debt cycle, interest rates approaching 0.
Recent economic collapse (Great Depression of 1929-1932, Great Recession of 2008)
Widening wealth gap, globally
The rise of populism in many countries
BND Trendline Warns of Future DownsideBND bounced off a critical support corresponding to November 29th, 2007, the day that yields spiked after BND dropped and miraculously regained 7.5%. We see a downward trend forming in BND indicating a tendency toward rising rates while debts and deficits continue to set record highs. If the FED is not willing to significantly debase the dollar through record levels of monetary injection, the bond market will continue to drop. We are in the danger zone here, watching the bond market is crucial to timing the coming drop.
I do not suggest going short until the following conditions are met:
1. Bond market drops considerably over any time frame (testing that critical level of pre-2008 crash or extreme velocity).
2. Stock market begins to face reality - depends on the velocity of rising rates (faster = sooner).
QCOM Earnings: Test of 2-year ResistanceQCOM looks like it wants to test it's 2 year support at the $50 mark. Secondary support is somewhere around $43. QCOM is coming off of a finished head and shoulders pattern, making its D leg downward. Typically a D leg is finished by a sharp reversal. In case of negative earnings, QCOM will likely drop well below the $50 support and have a sharp reversal upward. If earnings are positive, QCOM will likely bounce off the $50 support and make a less drastic reversal upward. Fisher transform also indicates the potential for an upward reversal. With QCOM's extreme debt levels, the FED put will serve them well going forward.
All the way to Resistance? & Inarguable FundamentalsGuess myself and a very few group of others had underestimated the amount of faith in this market. I had wholeheartedly felt we would see the Dow cut short of the move towards the resistance line set by the other 3 peaks preceding. Though I had left room to suggest the possibility of this happening, I did have doubts and I did voice those doubts with others, so I was wrong, and I owe gratitude to my counter parts for being fair enough with me to reasonably say, “well, maybe”.
That said, the long term perspective still reads the same. The fundamentals are still shallowing up, and the technicals, when compared to previous end-cycles have very distinctly similar patterns, if we are to truly push back from this point of resistance and engage in a massive sell off shortly after.
This time, I’d like to be a little more open and take a position that we will test the resistance line at least once more on the way day. And this is not for the sake of holding weight to the recent news on positive earnings, as anyone that truly invests knows that these earnings were only “solid” because they came close to juncture with the wall st estimates.
If we remember, however, those earnings estimates were revised downward from previous quarters, so it means nothing that we met the expectations of a market still slowing down fundamentally.
A greater crisis that I think is looming still goes back not large-cap corporate debt but the debt on personal financing, consumers and credit cards. Those are all at records. Coupling that with the Fed Reserve’s charts depicting the total money supply in “deposit accounts”, we see that those accounts are dwindling pretty hard. This loss of deposit away from the market correlated fairly when when regressed to debt repayment expectations. So, liquidity leaving the market is always negative news for future earnings.
That said, one other concern I have is with the small-cap companies. Very poor earnings growth for just under half of them, and they are more leveraged in this hour than in any point in time in the index history. I can foresee a lot of negativity in the Russell 2000. Lower earnings make it harder to find coverage on interest payments, and should anyone need to survive by refinancing, they will be doing so at markedly higher interest rates when compared to 2013-2016.
How the FED Will Pump SilverHistorically, when the FED decides to raise interest rates it ends up breaking the market. This happened in 2000 and 2008 with the solution being interest rate suppression and quantitative easing. Both of these methods produce abnormal rates of inflation, leading the FED to raise interest rates in an attempt to preserve the purchasing power of the dollar - and it breaks once more.
It is practically certain that going into this next recession, the FED will once more lower interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Yet each time they do this, they must start by filling the "bad debt black hole" in order to prevent a complete breakdown in confidence. The black hole grows proportionally to debt, and considering there is more debt now than there ever has been in history, the initial round of QE required this go around must be unprecedented in scale.
QE and suppressed interest rates are what caused commodity prices to take off in 2009, notably gold, silver and oil. We can expect the same result this go around. Once the FED is forced to lower interest rates close to or below 0%, there will be no floor on inflation. That point in time will be the perfect setup for silver to shine.
When will it happen? It could take another year or so before we see a FED response to a market suffering from debt withdrawals. SLV calls are particularly attractive in such a scenario, as they offer superior leverage for limited risk. Assuming SLV went from $15 to $60 within two years (well within reason), SLV calls offer reward:risk of up to 70:1. Best positioning may be found after a drastic FFR rate cut.
Side note: Largest physical holding of silver, and manager of the SLV fund, just so happens to be JPM. JPM also *coincidentally* held the largest net short position in silver on the futures exchange not long ago (cash deliverable only).
Month-End Continuation & MoreSame idea as in previous chart.
This is zoomed in to show the main points of resistance. 2 areas of concern with rising wedge in these recent times and stretched RSI. Very likely turnaround point in the next week or so. If it breaks past the fib line, then there will assuredly be snubbing right at the resistance line set by the previous peaks.
The overall trend aims downward still just with greater range for volatility. The broad chart shows areas of potential bounce from the long term trends set from the previous 10-20 years. Intruding beneath these points will violate extremely long term sets of support. 2 are depicted here from the 'line 1' and 'line 2'.
I'm making a "why not" prediction as far as the timing with the green line I'd crudely drawn in our future. Seems as though that historically, the steeper climbs give steeper falls, and the more gradual inclines will mirror a gradual descent. We are in an era of just the opposite. Short periods of time with rapid ascent. So, I'd imagine just the same with the coming down from our highest high at nearly 27,000 pts for the DJI.
Though I have no crystal ball, and I could be painfully wrong, this seems passable to me. Consumers still have the power to extend themselves for longer than we can predict, and the mere culture of my country can exhaust every bit of leverage capacity in ways not seen before. It very well could be that we climb out of these slows and right up past the highs to reclaim new territory and keep this sick machine turning for another half-decade, and I would be equally unsurprised, but I have no doubt that what we are doing now has incredible consequences.
Bitcoin is still better than Not Bitcoin Say what you want about Bitcoin but it still beats out the risk in investing on traditional markets where rampant debt and risky products have over run the market not to mention volatile political situations.
In math we trust
Yields continue breaking higher as expected=> Yields are creeping higher one more time and we are starting to see major moves across equity markets as a result.
=> Smart money is afraid of inflation returning and therefore selling bonds is the go-to. This is causing yields to rise and because we are reaching the end of the road on QE, Central banks won't be buying bonds anymore and want to diminish their positions in order to clear up the balance sheets.
=> Whitehouse needs are no longer going to be met by the FED so investors will have to supply the money and at 3% they are not very willing.
=> Expecting fireworks across the board for this Quarter with all eyes on 3.22
=> As you all know, higher yields will compete with equity returns making bonds on the longer end more attractive ....
=> Good luck all those tracking the US 10 year
Rising rates: Why is the 30 year yield so low? The 30 year treasury yield has traded under 3.25% for almost 4 years now.
The Fed continues to hike rates on a quarterly basis and Trump is unhappy about rising rates.
Every day we hear how the economy is 'in great shape', and jobs data is 'as good as it gets'.
More significantly what is pushing up rates are increased treasury issuance and the Fed's accelerating Quantitative Tightening.
So all in all why isn't the 30 year yield closer to 4% like it was only four years ago?
For several years the market has priced in low expectations for the long term.
The yield curve continues to flatten towards the lowest spreads since leading up to the great recession.
(28 basis points on the 30-5 spread and 30 points on the 10-2 spread).
At this rate the curve could flatten or invert in 6 to 12 months.
An inverted yield curve historically is followed by economic recession.
What's your thoughts?
US 10-year T-notes. Downside could be limited. Target corrected.This idea supports the previous interest rate outlook.
I advise you to book profits on the idea given last September (see related) earlier than set target at 116'07
and this is why:
The long-term trend together with the previous low offers strong support for the price and could reject the drop in the 117-118 area.
In this area the wave C = 1.272 of wave A and this also fortifies the support.
So better close shorts there.
USD interest rate growth could be limited by previous top.At the end of last September I called for the drop in the 10-year US T-notes with quite aggressive target (see related idea).
In this and the next update I came to the thought that the drop could be over earlier as rates are reaching important resistance level.
Despite the aggressive tone on the rate rise in US, I think the upside is limited based on this chart.
Wave 5 of (C) already has reached the target zone and approaches the former top at the 3.04% where the wave 5 = 0.786 of waves 1-3.
It is quite possible that when we would reach that area above 3 pct something in the economy could cry out - stop it!
Let's see!
The Clock Is TickingI don't know how long this perceived affluence will continue--but the days are numbered. Everything is overbought.
Italian Bank problems?ECB President Mario Draghi and other EU authorities are telling Italian banks to sell their bad debts,
since it’s choking their balance sheets to give new loans to new business, and support economic growth.
The central bank insists it can solve the problem on its own.
But let’s put a bit of meat on the issue: A problem of 379 Billion Dollar is not going to disappear without a bit of stimulus spending.
Bitcoin will beat the Central Banks (Sarcasm) // If you honestly believe cryptos growth wasn't anything other than to bring forth a cashless society governed by the world banks / you thought they just would go down without a fight... I hope u truly start "reading the history books"
But hey, don't listen to me, go all in and don't forget to also invest in those 1300 not at all similar crypto coins. Bubbles need fuel & stupidity to survive... Just know that it prob won't go as you thought it would at the end.
Those who are in power are not giving away anything for free ;)
If you're one of those early investors in Bitcoin... Gosh... take profits quick and allocate that nice ROI into where the money will flow once QT starts messing with the market //
Apple: Future after iPhone 8 The journey of technology behemoth Apple, Inc. from Apple I to iPhone 7 has been a spectacular one. Its valuation crossed $800 billion this year and is onto becoming the first trillion-dollar company. It's not been a smooth ride all the way. Like every company, Apple too had to go through phases of ups and downs and failures. It too made products that flopped - Apple Portable, Apple III, Macintosh TV - to name a few. It all changed when Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997, 10 years after he was fired. Not many know that in 1997 the company was on the verge of bankruptcy and was saved by Microsoft, by pumping in $150 Million and ended the rivalry between the two innovators, Gate and Jobs.
Apple was once again being steered by Jobs, as an iCEO - interim CEO - hence the alphabet "I" prefixes the products he innovated as an iCEO. Apple with its iPod launch created a generation of fan followers that would go on to make their every product a success, no matter how flawed it was. iPhone 4 has call drop issues, iPhone 6 would bend when pocketed - yet, people bought them and made them Apple's success stories. Now that Apple's next flagship - iPhone 8 - launch is around the corner, and speculations are that Apple is going for a complete design overhaul, it's time to analyze the stock and try to make out what it would mean for the company and its future.
Analyzing the stock of Apple, I see it making a long-term high in February - March 2018 at price level of around $175. So multiplying it with the number of outstanding shares of 5.165 Billion gives us the approximate valuation of $903.8 Billion - guess Apple will not be a Trillion - dollar company, at least not in 2018 or anytime soon. In the following chart, I have also marked a few intermediate highs and lows - time targets at approximate, price targets do not mean much. High in the first week of October, then low in the first week of November, then High in the second week of December and the final low in the second week of January before moving towards its long-term high in.
As always, we will update when changing dynamics necessitates so.
