Renewable energy – a requisite tool for tackling climate change"The electric light did not come from the continuous improvement of candles." – Oren Harari
In the year 1900, the world had a simple energy mix. One half of total energy supply came from coal and the other came from biomass. Gas, oil, and hydropower existed but paled in comparison. Fast forward 121 years, by 2021, things had changed in two key aspects. First, oil and gas had come head-to-head with coal to collectively account for nearly 77% of the energy mix. And second, total energy consumption had increased 14x1.
This drastic increase in our energy consumption, and demand mostly satiated by fossil fuels, has created a problem. It has left us with a carbon budget of 380 gigatons of CO2 equivalent from the start of 2023. In other words, we could hit 1.5°C of warming in 9 years2.
That is, unless things change meaningfully. Not continuous improvement, but radical change. Like shunning fossil fuels for cleaner alternatives. Not only is this essential but, luckily, it is now achievable thanks to the advancement of renewable energy.
At the heart of the energy transition
Consider the gap between the base case (dark blue line in the chart below) in Figure 1 and the path we must adopt in the 1.5°C scenario (teal line). The teal scenario appears to be possible by doing a combination of two things. Where decarbonisation of power and transportation is possible, it must be done. Where it isn’t, say heavy industries like steel and cement, carbon capture must be employed. Scaling up renewable sources of energy, therefore, is at the heart of this endeavour.
A more efficient alternative
Historically, our total energy consumption has only moved in one direction – upwards. While population growth and advancement in industrialisation and technology are the prime reasons for this, another contributing factor is that energy efficiency has seldom been achieved on a large scale. But with the rapid electrification of transport and buildings, efficiency gains vs using fossil fuels could result in total end-use demand for energy peaking by 2028 and, potentially, declining thereafter (in a 1.5°C scenario).
Wind and solar have arrived
Among renewables, wind and solar are expected to play the leading role (see Figure 3). There are numerous reasons for this. First, both technologies have been around long enough to see significant cost reductions in recent years. According to a Bloomberg New Energy Finance report published in June 2022, new onshore wind now costs about $46 per megawatt-hour (MWh), while large-scale solar plants cost $45 per megawatt-hour. In comparison, new coal-fired plants cost $74 per MWh, while gas plants cost $81 per MWh.
Second, most places in the world have access to either wind or sunshine (if not both). The only challenge that needs to be overcome, therefore, is obtaining the necessary funding required to install renewable energy farms.
And third, wind and solar are seeing some exciting innovations. Consider floating offshore wind as an example. Floating offshore wind power has several benefits as a source of renewable energy. First, floating wind turbines can be deployed in deeper waters where traditional fixed-bottom turbines cannot reach. This allows for greater access to stronger and more consistent wind resources, which can generate more electricity at a lower cost. Additionally, floating offshore wind turbines are less visible from shore and have a smaller environmental footprint compared to onshore and fixed-bottom offshore wind farms. Furthermore, floating offshore wind farms have the potential to be located closer to population centres, reducing transmission costs, and improving energy security. Lastly, because they are not limited by the ocean floor, floating wind turbines can be moved to different locations if needed, making them a more flexible option for renewable energy production.
Wind and solar can be complemented by emerging sources of renewable energy like hydrogen. Green hydrogen, which is produced through the renewable electrolysis of water, that is, passing a current of renewable electricity through water, has the potential to help decarbonise both heavy-duty transport like trucks, ships, trains, and airplanes, and energy-intensive industries like steel and coal. As the production of green hydrogen achieves scale, cost-reductions will foster further growth.
The pathway forward
Renewable energy can help the energy sector deliver net zero with the aid of the following:
1. Effective policy design - regulatory, commercial, and technical barriers to entry be removed.
2. Capital - by 2050, US$47 trillion is required to deliver the generation and infrastructure of a net zero energy system3.
3. Technology – wind and solar will need to be supported by emerging technologies like hydrogen and carbon capture.
4. System flexibility – innovative ways of energy storage and distribution will need to support renewable energy.
5. Sustainability – recycling will need to be scaled up to ensure we efficiently utilise natural resources.
Renewable energy is being fuelled by political will, technological progress, and investor interest. It is an exciting time to employ this tool in our fight against climate change.
Sources
1 Source: Visual Capitalist as of 10 March 2023 with original data from ‘Our World in Data’.
2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2023.
3 Wood Mackenzie, 2023.
Decarbonisation
Silver Linings Trade BookAt the expense of using a mixed metaphor, silver may at times appear to be a mercurial trading instrument. Even if you only trade silver as a CFD product, utilising pure technical analysis, and without holding any of it as a physical asset, you should still be aware of the macroeconomic context that influences this metal alongside supply and demand fundamentals. Silver, according to many players in the market, is heavily manipulated by some of the big banks as well as the U.S. Fed and Treasury. By manipulation, we mean a suppression of the real price of silver given bullish fundamentals that should translate into much higher prices.
Let’s first discuss the safe haven nature of silver. Four precious metals typically interest safe haven investors, namely gold, silver, platinum and palladium. It may come as a surprise to many that gold is not always the strongest and safest of havens and indeed during certain periods, silver, along with platinum and palladium, has acted as a safe haven when gold has not. Silver has been resilient in this regard as seen through the Covid-19 pandemic when its position as a safe haven asset climbed 47.89% between 31/12/2019 and 31/12/2020 compared to 25.12% for gold, 25.86% for palladium and 10.92% for platinum during the same period.
Silver’s backbone though is built from its use as an industrial metal and although industrial demand has been fickle since Covid-19, that’s still not been as fickle as investment demand since that time. As of January 2020, industrial buyers accounted for more than 50% of demand for the metal. Recent bearish economic data from key markets such as the U.S., China and Germany has put a lid on any attempts at a parabolic move eyeing the highs of Feb 2021 despite gold hitting an all-time high recently. When the global economy emerges from troubled waters, the global drive for cleaner energy will resume in earnest and make silver a key decarbonisation trade and we may see a resumption of the 2020 bull run. There is still room for a momentum rebound with a change in sentiment and consequent space to manoeuvre between where we are at the moment and the $30 high reached in early Feb 2021 and between that top and the all-time high of $49 in 2011.
Technical traders using leverage on gold CFDs, especially intra-day traders, get nervous when they look at the price action of silver in comparison. Silver’s price action is not as smooth as gold’s and the daily ranges may also appear tighter in comparison but this is in part due to silver’s wider use in industry compared to the yellow metal. As a result, silver has more cyclical characteristics than gold but this helps contextualise patterns and trends for trade analysis. Traders are losing out on not trading silver because intra-day trades as well as swing/position trades can offer an excellent risk to reward ratio with this instrument. Silver, like gold, is also offered by many brokers with a very reasonable spread and ones that are also much lower compared to platinum and palladium. As always, remember that when you go to market, be careful out there.
