$ROKU near heavy entry (3/5)Conviction: 3/5
Should probably wait for better entry around bottom support (4/5)
General Thesis
Weekly RSI good entry level
Daily RSI bounced off oversold, could still become bullish divergence with a lower low
bounced off near-term (2017) support trend line since inception
Growth
Gross margins (45%) is pretty steady the last few years, at all time highs
Revenue growth (50%) around historical average, down from 2020 pandemic highs
Value
P/S below average, looks like about historical median
P/FCF is very high (156), but about around mid-range of history
Fundamentals & Balance Sheet
quick ratio very attractive
Potential Risks
history is quite short, unclear how it will behave during recession
Daily RSI could spike down to oversold area some more
Historically no bullish divergence on weekly RSI before bounce
December2021
$VMW potential bottom (3/5)Conviction: 3/5
likely (40%) to go down more to touch lower trend line support (2008)
General Thesis
potential bullish div on weekly RSI @ oversold levels
could go down more to touch lower channel support (2008)
hovering long-time resistance / support line from peak of 2007, which was broken by covid panic
Growth
Gross margins high (82%), but decreasing since 2017
Revenue growth about historical average (11%)
Value
P/FCF below average
P/S below average
Fundamentals & Balance Sheet
low debt to asset (<1)
quick ratio good (>1)
Potential Risks
RSI-W not oversold yet
expensive P/FCF
another leg down for bullish divergence
another leg down to touch lower trend line support
$TWTR bounce from retest? (4/5)Conviction: 4/5
could have another leg down to complete bullish RSI-W divergence
General Thesis
breakout and retest from downward resistance line (2014)
Weekly RSI at oversold levels - ALTHOUGH could have another leg down to complete bullish divergence
200WMA as support?
c-leg down at 100% of a leg down
Growth
Margins are high, although came down a bit since 2019
revenue growth trending up, about average
Value
P/FCF expensive, coming down in 2021
P/S about average
Fundamentals & Balance Sheet
low debt to asset (<1)
good quick ratio (4)
Potential Risks
expensive P/FCF
data does not contain last recession
another leg down for bullish divergence?
can continue to hug downtrend
$COIN risky trade (2/5)Conviction: 2/5
General Thesis
Daily RSI grazed 30 2 days ago
bounced off short-term trendline since May 2021
will be carried up if crypto bounces,which is looking likely
Growth
Gross margins (90%) is high
Revenue growth high (300%)
Value
P/FCF N/A
P/S below historical average but expensive at 9
Fundamentals & Balance Sheet
low debt to asset (<1)
quick ratio N/A
Potential Risks
very short history, lines unreliable
Bitcoin outlook — Jan/Feb 2022Lines on charts for the end of December 2021 through February 2022.
Winter is here, with some storms ahead.
Bitcoin looks to continue to follow the short-term trend down from the recent all-time high. I believe we broke up and are currently in a retest. Unfortunately, I don't expect it to hold.
The next support is from a previous higher low at ~$45,475. No faith here in this support, it's looking weak AF.
I'm looking back at May-July 2021 for clues—particularly June 15th to July 20th, which could very well be the same pattern we take over the next 4 weeks. In short, we respect the major red trendline. However, expect to dip below and retest.
So, be ready for more drops.
Expect a few nasty bear wicks over the next few days. Totally wouldn't surprise me if it happens during New Year's Eve. So prep accordingly.
There will be brief runups with BTC showing dominance compressing ALTs to max pain. Careful with those bull traps.
Keep plenty of cash on hand, be ready to buy the dip. Trade this area but within a tight range.
If the previous pattern holds, we'll run up but then back down under the trend line and then around February start looking for the run to begin towards the next ATH.
Till then. Lighten your bags if you can, be ready to buy those dips.
Best of Luck in the New Year!
$DBE brajkout and retest (4/5)Conviction: 4/5
potentially better entry lower around 14.25
General Thesis
breakout and retest of off long-term (2008) downward channel resistance
weekly RSI did not touch oversold, but seems to hold at historical turning point
Growth
N/A
Value
N/A
Fundamentals & Balance Sheet
low investment in energy production
unlikely to have high energy production in the future from "green" initiatives
inflation?
Potential Risks
could hug trend line down further, especially if following elliott wave (5 waves already completed)
$TDC breakout and retest! (3/5)Conviction: 3/5
General Thesis
Weekly RSI looks is attractive but likely to go lower
Daily RSI turning up from oversold positions
breakout from 2012 down trend resistance, could be the start of a leg up!
target $60
Growth
Gross margins (57%) is pretty steady, at/near historical highs
Revenue growth (1.32%) around 75th percentile
Value
P/FCF below average (40th percentile)
P/S below average as well (25th percentile)
Fundamentals & Balance Sheet
quick ratio good (~1), although trending down
Potential Risks
short history
quick ratio has been deteriorating sincepeak in 2017
price could continue to move down trend line
stop loss at recent trough: $40
$OMGUSD bounce off 2020 lows? (2/5)Low conviction trade
bounced off 100 and 200 WMA, could be good buy point
but Weekly RSI is not at super attractive levels.
on the other hand, daily RSI has been hovering at oversold levels for about a month now, so could be good entry.
$IVLU International Value 5th wave to $30? (3/5)Conviction: 3/5
General Thesis
weekly RSI showed a recent bouc
bounced off long-term (2008) support trend line
Growth
N/A
Value
from other research, value of value (i.e. relative performance of value and growth) is at historical highs (i.e. very attractive)
also, US outperformance to international stocks is hitting upper bound of uptrend since 2011
which is also corroborated on a longer time frame from other studies.
although we have no idea when this is going to turn
Fundamentals & Balance Sheet
N/A
Potential Risks
market downturn will cause this to go down too, albeit to a smaller degree to growth stocks
did not bounce off of attractive Weekly RSI number
$XLB Materials looking overbought!Conviction: 4/5
General Thesis
reaching long-term upper bound on channel (2007)
Weekly RSI showing bearish divergence
weekly MA look like they might be turning over
Timeframe: 1 year-ish
Growth
N/A
Value
N/A
Fundamentals
N/A
Potential Risks
continued inflation + seller pricing power
could go on for longer
$IBM bounce? potential target $300 (4/5)Conviction: 4/5
need to break above descending resistance line for confirmation.
depending on speed of ascent, upper channel points to $300 target
General Thesis
bounced off long-term channel support since 1984-ish recently in 2020
also seems to continue channel since 1999
bounced off short term channel since 2020 lows
weekly RSI about neutral
Growth
Gross margins (50%) is pretty steady, near historical highs
Revenue growth (0.33%) is super low, but recent highs
Value
P/FCF below average (25th percentile)
P/S about average
Fundamentals & Balance Sheet
low debt to asset (<1)
Potential Risks
entry for Weekly RSI is not ideal, could be lower
$XLV set to outperform $SPY (4/5)Conviction: 4/5
Relative performance of Health Care against S&P 500 ( AMEX:SPY ) looks pretty good for the long term. However, it recently broke below support sooo not 100% sure, possibly 90% sure.
However, $XLV seems like it might be ready for a drop based on its own trends.
signal for near-term drop of the markets?
$SIL potential bounce from retest (2/5)Conviction: 2/5
General Thesis
breakout and retest of medium-term (2012) resistance line
if inflation takes hold... silver could benefit, which could benefit silver miners
Growth
N/A
Value
N/A
Fundamentals & Balance Sheet
N/A
Potential Risks
been pretty weak lately
silver OANDA:XAGUSD near support, can be risky
$ADSK long-term (multi-year) top? (3/5)Conviction: 3/5
could go up some more in near term, but looks quite risky long-term (5+ years)
General Thesis
weekly RSI showing bearish divergence
recently had multiple touches on long-term channel resistance (1991)
Growth
Gross margins (90%) at historical highs
Revenue growth (18%) also high relative to own history, maybe 80th percnetile
Value
P/FCF about average in the last 12 months
P/S at historical highs (about 80th percentile)
Fundamentals & Balance Sheet
low debt to asset (<1)
quick ratio mild (.8)
Potential Risks
could continue to hug upper resistance
short term bounce is possible, last time price touched trend line it took 4 years to touch bottom trend line
Historically no bullish divergence before bounce
$DISCA likely bottom (4/5)Conviction: 4/5
General Thesis
weekly RSI just grazed oversold levels, which means it could go down some more
bounced off long-term (2008) support trend line
Growth
Gross margins (50%) is pretty steady
Revenue growth (23%) slightly above historical average, bounce from lows in 2020
Value
P/FCF below average (25th percentile)
P/S below average as well
Fundamentals & Balance Sheet
low debt to asset (<1)
quick ratio good (~2)
Potential Risks
RSI could spike down to oversold area some more... unlikely because it just did that in 2020??
Historically no bullish divergence before bounce
Currently below all moving averages
$SAM potential bottom (3/5)Conviction: 3/5
General Thesis
potential bullish div on weekly RSI @ oversold levels
could go down more to touch lower channel support (2008)
fallen about 50%, normally fall 61.8%
Growth
Gross margins have steadily decreased since 2011
Revenue growth experienced high growth in 2020-2021, but have come down from 50% to about 15%
Value
P/FCF expensive (negative FCF)
P/S about average
Fundamentals & Balance Sheet
low debt to asset (<1)
quick ratio could be better (.8)
Potential Risks
expensive P/FCF
another leg down for bullish divergence
another leg down to touch lower trend line support
$MELI could be done falling (3/5)Conviction: 3/5
could have another leg down to touch lower channel line (2008)
General Thesis
could have finished 3 leg down correction
Weekly RSI at oversold levels - historically only touches this level once before bouncing
Growth
Margins are consistently falling since 2011
revenue growth trending up, new ATH
Value
P/FCF expensive (negative FCF)
P/S below historical average, come down a lot since peak in 2021
Fundamentals & Balance Sheet
low debt to asset (<1)
good quick ratio (>1)
Potential Risks
expensive P/FCF
data does not contain last recession
another leg down to touch trend support?