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December2024

12/26 Trading Plan - Last Weeks Recap and Tuesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Cautious Holiday Trading As we continue the holiday week, trading volume and liquidity are expected to decrease significantly with the exit of institutional money and many professionals on break. This typically results in choppier and less predictable price action, increasing the potential risk for traders. The holiday trading mode is expected to bring more subdued movements with occasional sharp volatility. 📝 Recap: Historical Santa Rally Period Last week, there was a noted failed breakdown of the overnight 4785 low, which occurred late in the trading day. The focus remains on key support and resistance levels, with a cautious eye on the choppier market dynamics typical of this time. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Stock Market Momentum: The S&P 500 is approaching record levels, carrying momentum into the shortened trading week after marking an eight-week winning streak. Investors are looking forward to the "Santa Claus Rally," a period of traditionally good days for stocks during the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. Mortgage Rate Trends: Mortgage rates have dropped significantly, reaching their lowest level since mid-June. This decrease comes after the Federal Reserve indicated a likelihood of cutting the federal funds rate in the upcoming year. The lower rates are expected to increase homebuying activity in 2024. Global Market Movements: US equity futures edged higher, and the dollar remained stable as markets resumed post-Christmas. Asian stocks were mixed in light trading, with gains in emerging Asian currencies against a weakening dollar. Deal news, including the sale of Manchester United, lifted shares of some US-listed companies. Economic Forecasts: Analysts predict the global economy will slow further in 2024 despite easing pressures. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, the state of the US and Chinese economies, and the US presidential election will play significant roles in determining economic outcomes. Stock Market Review: The S&P 500 is on track to finish 2023 with a gain of about 21%. Despite various challenges, including inflation and rising interest rates, the US economy has shown resilience, and corporate profits are on the rise. Technology stocks have regained their lead, with mega-cap tech stocks contributing significantly to market gains. Gold Market: Gold prices have increased, heading for their first annual gain in three years. This rise is attributed to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 and a weaker US currency. Corporate News: Samsung has delayed production at its new US factory until 2025. Intel plans to invest $25 billion in Israel after securing incentives. Manchester United's ownership saga concludes with a $1.3 billion deal involving Ratcliffe. Emerging Markets: Goldman Sachs reflects on the lessons learned from a misjudged bet on China's post-pandemic recovery. The bank had anticipated a significant rally in Chinese stocks and a broader boost to emerging markets, which did not materialize as expected. Oil Market: Oil remains in focus amid geopolitical tensions, with the market watching for potential impacts on supply and prices. Cryptocurrency: The ousted Binance founder CZ's fortune grew by $25 billion in 2023, and Nigeria has allowed banks to open accounts for crypto firms, signaling a shift in the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies. 📉 Support Levels Major Support Levels: 4795: A pivotal major support, holding key significance for upcoming trading dynamics. 4779-83: Another crucial major support zone, acting as a potential turnaround point in the market. Minor Support Levels: 4772, 4766, 4750-55, 4741, 4734, 4724, 4719, 4708-10, 4699, 4690, 4682, 4678, 4670, 4660-63, 4648, 4641, 4630-33, 4624, 4614, 4606. 📈 Resistance Levels Major Resistance Levels: 4800: The first line of major resistance, potentially leading to more significant market reactions. 4808 and 4812-15: Described as a heavy, messy resistance zone; crucial for the day's trading strategy. Minor Resistance Levels: 4825, 4830-33, 4838, 4847, 4853, 4860, 4867, 4877, 4883, 4890, 4894, 4905-07, 4914, 4925. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Current Sentiment: The market is showing continued bullish momentum, with the S&P 500 futures (ES) indicating resilience and an upward trajectory. Key Strategy: Focus on established support zones, particularly around 4740-45, to initiate long positions. It's critical to avoid impulsive trading and wait for the market to come to these levels. Upside Targets: Maintaining above 4740-45 could propel the market towards the next levels of interest at 4767 and 4788. For a significant bullish continuation, eyes are on surpassing the 4810-12 threshold. Risk Consideration: Despite the prevailing bullish sentiment, be mindful of recent selling pressures and market shifts. The landscape can change swiftly, requiring constant vigilance. Bear Case Analysis: Market Vulnerability: The market stands at a pivotal point; a drop below the 4740 support could shift the trend to bearish. Critical Levels: The 4740-45 zone is crucial; a breakdown here could serve as an early bearish indicator. Short Entry Points: If weakness appears, consider short positions near 4736 but ensure to avoid rash decisions. Wait for confirmatory signals. Downside Targets: A confirmed bearish trend could open opportunities towards 4715 and 4705-08 as initial targets for bearish profits. Overall Outlook: Bullish Trend Continuation: The bullish outlook is contingent on the market's ability to hold and rebound from the 4740-45 support area. Key Levels to Watch: Keep a close watch on 4740-45 for support and 4767 & 4788 for potential resistance or breakout points. Resistance Testing: Be attentive to how the market reacts at established resistance levels, as a breakthrough or rejection can dictate the next move. Risk Awareness: Anticipate increased volatility and the possibility of both upward and downward movements, staying ready to adapt as needed. Strategy Adaptability: Flexibility in strategy will be key, especially in responding to real-time market changes and sentiment. Today’s Outlook: Market Dynamics: The immediate focus will be on the market's interaction with the 4740-45 area, which will likely determine the short-term direction. Profit Strategy: Employ a level-to-level trading approach, ready to capitalize on either bullish continuation or bearish reversal, depending on how the market unfolds. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/21 Trading Plan - Today's Recap and Friday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Muted Santa Rally Expectations Despite some anticipations of a quieter Santa Rally this year, the market is expected to navigate through a "choppier" holiday season than usual. Flexibility and adaptability in trading strategies are emphasized over predictions. 📝 Recap: Historical Santa Rally Period Historically, the "Santa Rally" begins with the final trading session before the holidays, typically from December 22nd to January 4th. Over the last 30 years, this period has averaged a seasonal return of +1.4%. Yet, a significant drop-off in market activity is expected during the holidays, potentially leading to lower-quality trading. 🌏 The Markets Overnight: Market Closure and Projections The IMF has lowered GDP growth projections for advanced economies to 1.5% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024, highlighting global economic slowdown concerns, while central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, raise interest rates to address persistent inflation. Emerging markets exhibit mixed economic trends, with weakened industrial activity but prospects for a 'Soft Landing' in some countries. China's growth has slowed in Q4, India's GDP outlook is positive for 2024, Brazil considers rate cuts, and Argentina faces peso devaluation issues. The US economy remains resilient with robust growth, buoyed by consumer spending and a strong job market, as the Biden-Harris Administration's policies aim to promote real wage growth and a healthy labor market in a context of reducing inflation. 🔍 Key Structures: Important Trading Zones Key structures to watch include a broad chop region between 4750-4810. The first major support zone lies at 4777-81, with any dips into the 4730s that recover from yesterday's low signaling strong buy opportunities. 📉 Support Levels: Support Zones for Trading Support levels are set at 4793, 4788, 4777-81 (major), 4772 (major), 4761, 4756, 4745-50 (major), 4737, 4732-34 (major), 4719, 4712, 4705-08 (major), 4698, 4692, 4685 (major), 4675, 4666, 4661 (major), 4648, 4641, 4625-30 (major), 4616, 4606 (major), 4591-93 (major), 4585. 📈 Resistance Levels: Identified Resistance Points Key resistance levels include 4797 (major), 4811 (major), 4816, 4822, 4830 (major), 4838, 4845, 4849, 4855-60 (major), 4871, 4876, 4883-86 (major), 4893, 4903-06 (major). 📝 Trading Plan: Strategy for Market Engagement The trading strategy focuses on holding the 4745-50 area, quickly buying up dips below this level. Bulls aim to maintain the 4777-81 zone on dips, test the 4811 level, and form a base for a potential upward movement through 4811. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Current Sentiment: The market retains a strong bullish trend, with the ES (S&P 500 futures) demonstrating resilience. Key Strategy: Concentrate on key support levels, such as 4740-45, for long positions, and avoid chasing the market. Upside Targets: A hold above 4740-45 could lead to a bounce towards 4767 and potentially 4788. A major upward move necessitates reclaiming 4810-12. Risk Consideration: Stay vigilant of market shifts; despite the bullish trend, the recent selling adds complexity. Bear Case Analysis: Market Vulnerability: The market is at a critical juncture; losing the 4740 level could indicate a bearish turn. Critical Levels: Monitor the 4740-45 range closely for any bearish signals. Short Entry Points: In case of weakness, consider shorts with a trigger around 4736, while avoiding impulsive trades. Downside Targets: If a bearish trend confirms, look to profit from support levels at 4715 and 4705-08. Overall Outlook: Bullish Trend Continuation: The market may continue its bullish trend if 4740-45 sustains. Key Levels to Watch: Focus on critical supports at 4740-45 and resistance levels at 4767 and 4788. Resistance Testing: Monitor whether the market tests and breaks through higher resistance levels. Risk Awareness: Prepare for increased volatility and a bi-directional market movement. Strategy Adaptability: Be ready to adjust strategies based on market responses. Tomorrow’s Outlook: Market Dynamics: The focus is on the performance of the 4740-45 level for potential upward movement. Profit Strategy: Aim for level-to-level trading, adapting to both bullish and bearish scenarios. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
12/18 Trading Plan - Today's Recap and Tuesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Bullish Trend with Cautious Watch The market continues its upward trajectory, indicated by 8 consecutive green days, but now faces a critical juncture just under major resistance. While the bullish trend is dominant, traders should be vigilant for any trend reversals. 🌏 Major Global Catalysts Tesla's Wage Increase: Impacts on union interest at the Nevada Gigafactory. North Korea's ICBM Launch: Escalating geopolitical tensions. Market Reactions: Mixed signals with rising Treasury yields and fluctuating European and Asian markets. Venezuela-Guyana Territorial Dispute: Agreement to resolve peacefully. China's Economic Challenges: Deflation risks highlighted by falling pork prices. Crypto Political Influence: Super PAC's significant funding for the 2024 elections. Russia-Ukraine Conflict: New EU sanctions amidst Putin's re-election plans. 📷 Snapshot Daily Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis: EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend. Overall Sentiment: Bullish. 📉 Support Levels Major: 4788-90, 4781, 4772, 4766, 4763, 4753, 4744, 4730-34, 4726, 4719, 4708, 4698-4700, 4692, 4684, 4673, 4663-66, 4654, 4648, 4634, 4630, 4618-20. Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670. 📈 Resistance Levels Major: 4796, 4806, 4810-12, 4817, 4825-27, 4838, 4848, 4860, 4873, 4883, 4900, 4906, 4910, 4923-25, 4932, 4945, 4953, 4962, 4976, 4990, 5002. Minor: 4787, 4795, 4816-20, 4826, 4838. 📝 Trading Plan Bull Case Analysis: Key Levels: 4781, 4772. Strategy: Maintain the breakout, targeting 4808-10. Risks: Be cautious after 8 green days, the trend could shift. Bear Case Analysis: Target Short Entry: If 4773 fails, consider shorts with caution. Profit Targets: Watch for potential dips towards 4708. Strategy: Discipline in profit-taking is key, watch for market traps. Tomorrow’s Outlook: Discipline and Strategy: Monitor 4781 and 4773 supports closely. The market remains bullish, but a shift is possible at any moment. Monitor support and resistance levels diligently and adjust strategies as needed. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro