Deepseek
Nvidia could still be seriously overvaluedIf the release of DeepSeek's AI models really is as disruptive as some suspect, Nvidia bulls could be seriously questioning if they want to hold onto the stock for the long haul. And that means some bulls could be looking to offload into a bounce while bears seek to fade into them. I highlight some key levels for bears to keep an eye on.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst City Index and Forex.com
Maybe it's time to revisit this chart along with $NVDAIf you bought NASDAQ:NVDA and you're nervous:
First establish why you bought it first place?
What was your trade plan at the time of the buy?
Where was the planned Take Profit?
Where was the planned Stop Loss?
Are you still strictly following that plan right now?
Did you buy it for short term hold or long term?
If you bought it for long term and it's still within your trade plan then why worry or even think about it?
If you bought it for short term then execute your trade plan, it's just a trade.
If you broke all your rules and it's way below your planned Stop Loss and now you're looking around trying to find people who are hyping it up trying to make yourself feel better - don't do that, those people hyping it up are in loss with you as well.
Check the image I added, detach yourself emotionally and review the chart to estabish where we might be position and what might come next then set up a strict plan to follow from here on.
NVIDIA Retesting The Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NVIDIA gapped down massively
On the DeepSeek news and
Went further down after the
Opening, but then a gap closing
Move started and the price is now
Retesting the horizontal resistance
Around 130/132$ which also
Happens to be the gap's opening
Level so based on technical analysis
We might be expecting a local
Bearish pullback from the resistance
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
The West Innovates, but China COPY/PASTES Better...From Instagram/Youtube to Tik-Tok
From OpenAI (closed AI) to China Free AI ...
''🇨🇳📋 China Doesn't Just Copy, They Paste Better! 🚀🤖''
What Just Happened?
The DeepSeek AI shockwave just sent the US stock market into panic mode – wiping out hundreds of billions in value.
Here’s the breakdown:
DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, built a ChatGPT rival using a fraction of the resources.
They optimized their software rather than relying on NVIDIA’s expensive GPUs.
NVIDIA lost $500B in market cap, as investors realized brute-force AI computing might not be the future.
The US market tanked as the news spread – another case of China disrupting American tech.
This isn't the first time we’ve seen this play out…
China’s Playbook: Innovation Through “Pasting”
We’ve seen this before:
'US Innovation' vs 'China’s “Better Cheaper” Version'
Facebook / Instagram WeChat / Xiaohongshu
YouTube Shorts Douyin (TikTok in China)
Google Search Baidu
ChatGPT (OpenAI) DeepSeek AI
The pattern is simple: China doesn’t just copy – they optimize, scale, and outcompete. The US responds by banning them.
And guess what? The ban playbook is coming back.
OpenAI vs. China – The “Copy-Paste” Battle
China isn’t just building ChatGPT clones – they’re making them free. DeepSeek AI is disrupting the AI race by offering competitive models at a fraction of the cost.
TikTok destroyed Instagram Reels & YouTube Shorts → US tried to ban it.
DeepSeek AI is now outperforming OpenAI on efficiency → What’s next?
If history repeats itself, expect the US to start "national security" concerns about Chinese AI models soon. But the real reason? China is winning the innovation war.
My Take: The Real Reason Behind “Free” AI
Nothing in China is truly free. If they’re offering cutting-edge AI for nothing, the real cost is your data, ideas, and innovation.
They’re not just training AI – they’re training on global users.
By offering AI for free, they gather intelligence on how people build, create, and think.
This isn’t just about AI models – it’s about controlling the future of tech.
The US stock market just realized this, and so should you.
🚀 Watch how NVIDIA, OpenAI, and US regulators react in the coming weeks. A ban may be inevitable.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
ps. I am for sure NOT taking my AI innovation on a 'free- copy/paste is ok' place/ NOT Happening.
2000 $CSCO vs 2025 $NVDA, is the similar crash possible?🚨 Could Nvidia be the next Cisco? 🚨
In 2000, Cisco dominated networking with its own chips. But competitors used cheaper, nearly as effective chips, and the stock dropped from $82 to $8 in just 2 years. Is the same fate possible for Nvidia?
Cisco invested heavily in its IOS CLI and aggressively defended it.
Nvidia did the same with CUDA, taking action against anyone trying to make alternatives.
But now, competition is heating up.
DeepSeek and other companies could lead those who over-invested in Nvidia chips on borrowed money to offload them, flooding the second-hand market with GPUs.
Meanwhile, the Magnificent 7 might slow down orders since they already have tons of Nvidia chips stockpiled.
Just like Cisco switches were 80% off in 2001, could we see a similar scenario with Nvidia?
And let’s talk about the $2000 RTX 5090 — would you buy one today?
Nvidia has committed huge resources to TSMC for chip production. They could be facing an overstock issue, and slashing prices could hurt profit margins. 😬
We will soon know the direction it will go, next few quarters will show us all.
Is NVDA's $600 Billion Drop Due to DeepSeek?Is NVDA's $600 Billion Drop Due to DeepSeek?
From my observation, the answer is no. NVIDIA had been experiencing continuous breakout growth for several months, reaching a double-top peak at the same time the AI wave was at its strongest. This led to the company's valuation multiplying several times from its lows.
The $140+ range was around the peak valuation for NVDA. Therefore, in the next few months, a correction below $100 is inevitable. Even without DeepSeek, a similar event would have triggered this correction, as it is a natural phase for a company that has experienced such rapid and sustained growth. Framing it as an AI-driven narrative simply makes the situation more convincing.
Looking at the chart, NVDA will likely top out, correct downward to form a bottom, then rebound to a new high before the larger 3M cycle correction begins.
GBP/USD Resistance Rejection and Bearish OutlookGBP/USD is a forex pair representing the British Pound against the US Dollar. The current price is 1.24150, and the target price is 1.21000, indicating an expected decline. This suggests a bearish outlook, with a potential gain of 300+ pips if the price moves as anticipated. The analysis is based on support and resistance levels, key technical indicators in forex trading. The price is currently facing strong resistance, leading to a rejection at this level. A rejection from resistance often signals selling pressure, pushing prices downward. Traders expect the price to drop toward the next support level at 1.21000. The setup aligns with technical analysis, where resistance acts as a ceiling for price movements. If the resistance holds, further bearish momentum could drive the price lower. Risk management is essential, as price movements can be unpredictable.
DeepSeek AI | TechStocks Crash | NVIDIA down -17%On Monday (yesterday), Wall Street reacted wildly with the release of Chinese AI app DeepSeek.
Throughout the day, roughly 1 Trillion US Dollars was wiped from the stock market, largely from chip and tech stocks suck as Nvidia which caused a larger sell-off.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman called it an "impressive model" and POTUS Donald Trump said that it should be a "wakeup call for our industries".
The bright side of this, is that there can be some excellent entry points found across the market after the sell-off.
_______________
NASDAQ:NVDA
Nvidia's Largest Single-Day Decline and Its ImplicationsNvidia Experienced Its Largest Single-Day Decline on 27th Jan, tumbled 17%, erasing USD589B from its market capitalisation, it was the biggest in the US stock market history.
What will be the implications?
Last month, we discussed how the Nasdaq reached and responded well to the upper band of its parallel channel.
Nvidia being one of the largest market cap stocks in Nasdaq. What will be Nasdaq’s performance like for the rest of the year?
Let’s explore how we can include fundamental analysis to make sense of the situation.
Micro E-Mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures & Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
It Appears as though the Bullish Wedge is our most probable playTrading Fam,
Time for my weekly update on the Bitcoin. A lot has occurred in the last week or so since I updated you all last, not least of which includes Deepseek AI FUD causing panic in the GPU and Power stock plays which has spilled over into our crypto space. But does this panic have merit or is this simply another retail bait, shaking out paper hands while whales continue to buy? The charts are showing me the latter is most probably true and news seems to support my thesis here as Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy acquired another 10,107 Bitcoin on the 26th of Jan.
Previously, you will remember that I had spotted a potential H&S on the charts and had posted a caution in this regard as it had potential to play out.
Shortly thereafter, I also spotted this bullish pendant at which point my bias became conflicted. Was Bitcoin going to pop or was it going to drop? We had to wait and observe further price action before it became clear.
It now looks like our bulls maintained the greatest strength as we bounced off or our neckline, and broke up above our bullish wedge, hitting resistance at 106K. We then formed another bullish pennant smaller in size, dropped from that quickly to perfectly retest the topside of our larger bullish pennant, and then came back inside the wedge for further consolidation.
If I am reading this chart correctly, our greatest probability now lies with the bulls breaking to the upside of the smaller wedge and retesting that 106K resistance level again. In time, I believe we'll break 106k to the upside and continue towards our target of 140k.
Why 140k?
When we broke above our bullish descending channel in Oct. of last year, we continued up until we hit a new high at 109k. This was our local top. We can now measure the distance from that break up (around 68k) to our new high at 109k. This same distance can be utiliized to give us a new target from our bullish wedge breakout. This fractal gives us a reasonable target of around 140k.
Hope this makes sense.
✌️Stew
NVIDIA (NVDA): DeepSeek’s AI Shakeup Sends Nvidia PlummetingNvidia is down an astonishing 15% in just a few hours. The primary driver? Fundamentally, the announcement of Chinese startup DeepSeek has sent shockwaves through the market. This previously unknown company reportedly holds a significant number of Nvidia chips and claims to have developed an AI superior to ChatGPT with just a $6 million investment. This disrupts the entire tech landscape, as companies like Google and others are pouring billions into AI research and development. The news casts doubt on the competitive edge of industry giants, and Nvidia is caught in the crossfire, given its strong ties to AI development and chip demand.
From a technical perspective, Nvidia recently respected the upper boundary of its volume profile but failed to break above it—a likely factor contributing to this sell-off, though the DeepSeek announcement remains the major catalyst. The price has now dropped back to the Point of Control (POC) at $120, leaving a significant gap behind.
While a complete gap fill would be surprising in the short term, it’s not out of the question. However, we’re not looking to catch a falling knife here. Given the uncertainty around potential developments with DeepSeek, caution is important.
Our current plan is as follows: We are keeping the stop-loss for our first position at $114.50 to limit risk. A second entry is being considered in the range between $111 and $106.70, as this aligns well with both the wave ((ii)) structure and the volume profile.
This plan is not yet finalised, as we’re closely monitoring how the situation unfolds. For now, patience is key, given the volatility and the ongoing uncertainty.
Is DeepSeek really a threat to Nvidia?There are so many opinions circulating the internet right now, that it is difficult to get our heads around. Here is our opinion on what could happen with NASDAQ:NVDA stock in the near future.
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
RISK DISCLAIMER
74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
Did We Just Witness AI Black Monday? DeepSeek Shocks Tech StocksPanic sell, panic sell, panic sell! That’s basically how Monday went for Wall Street and those of you who hold Nvidia shares. Or just about any other tech stock — you name it, it likely fell nose first when a big and scary Chinese artificial intelligence startup unveiled its new AI model.
DeepSeek.
What in the world is DeepSeek and why do I hear about it now?
DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup, may have just stripped Nvidia of its untouchable status as the go-to company that develops expensive chips to train AI models. DeepSeek announced it had trained its latest model, a rival of ChatGPT, for the negligible $5.6 million in computing costs. The story gets even crazier: it did it with 2,048 Nvidia H800 GPUs (bought before the US rolled out export restrictions).
That’s a meager 5% of the $100 million OpenAI blew on training its GPT-4 model in late 2023. And, what’s even more, DeepSeek’s model, called R1, churns out responses that are scarily close to the advanced US-bred technology.
Oh, and it’s open source, unlike OpenAI, which was originally open source but shut its doors to the public. It’s also free to use, unlike ChatGPT, which offers a paid tier between $240 and $2,400 a year. DeepSeek’s R1 model is quickly gaining traction among users as it made its way to the top of Apple’s App Store rankings.
DeepSeek has factored in demand from corporations, too. While OpenAI hosts the model on its own platform, its Chinese rival allows you to host this beast on your own hardware, which is a big deal to lots of businesses that work with sensitive data.
The stock market was so shocked by the news that you can get pretty much the same result for a fraction of the cost (and give it to users for free), it ran for the hills. The aftermath — Monday saw more than $1 trillion washed out from the valuation of the Magnificent Seven club. One company specifically took the biggest blow.
Can DeepSeek deep-six Nvidia’s world dominance plans?
Have companies been overpaying for Nvidia’s $30,000 chips? And have investors been overpaying for Nvidia’s shares? Nvidia NVDA pulled in a record $35 billion in Q3 , 2024 and struck a gross margin of 75% and net income of $20 billion.
The Jensen Huang-led company on Monday showed it can also hit records in reverse. Closing down 17% for the cash session, it took the biggest L in history. This was the largest destruction of value for a single company ever — $589 billion . So why was Nvidia particularly hit by DeepSeek’s rise?
Nvidia has been the primary beneficiary of the vast amounts of cash companies spent on AI. Simply because Nvidia makes the semiconductors used to train AI models. But if the same result (or just about the same) could be achieved through far less expensive means, why bother propelling Nvidia to the top echelon of the world’s biggest companies ?
Nvidia has picked up roughly $131 billion over the past two years from the sale of data-center equipment, mostly AI chips. Its client list includes the biggest names in tech, such as Amazon AMZN , Microsoft MSFT , Meta META and Alphabet GOOGL . These four combined have shelled out $343 billion in AI-related capex (capital expenditures) over the past two years. Since the release of ChatGPT, Nvidia shares have surged more than 700%.
Could we be looking at the good old supply and demand equation in play? If DeepSeek’s claims are true, and other companies can do the same (it’s an open-source model), then the scales could turn from undersupply to oversupply.
Can we then see a market crash that’s beyond anything we’ve ever thought possible? Or is that freak-out an unjustified stretch? Share your thoughts in the comment section below.
NVDA's Historical Bounce Data - This Is The Way.Forget all the nonsense about deepseek and evidence surrounding the NVDA chinese financial psyop that crushed the market today (primarily before the market even opened). It's all smoke and mirrors. Putting your money in the middle when the odds are in your favor is how you come out on top. That being said, there's a 90% rebound rate for NVidia's 10 biggest drops over the last - hence the reason I'm sitting on 75 calls with a strike of 125 that expire this Friday. The average next day rebound is 4.4% with the median being 5.3%. NVDA closed at $118.58, meaning there's a 90% chance that tomorrow we will see the price settle in the following ranges:
Bull Case: 60% probability: $124.50 - $126.90
Base Case: 30% probability: $120.95 - $123.30
Bear Case: 10% probability: $115 - $117
The DeepSeek Red Herring:
Speculating on the DeepSeek nonsense, the release of DeepSeek's R1 seems like an attempt to make the narrative fit the story rather than anything based on actual news:
*As someone that works w/ AI every day, DeepSeek v3 has been out for a long time, and R1 was released over a week ago. There isn't anything new about this story.
*This likely points to a coordinated dump of NVDA by 'whales' during premarket hours to push price action, and China has enough sway in the US markets to perform such a sway after hours. More than 12% of the 16.9% drop occurred in a short period before the market opened - limiting the influence/access of retail investors and thereby maximizing their leverage/power over the market.
*This could be a preemptive move by China in a financial cold war that has been developing. Trump recently touted investing $.5T in stargate (ai), and has proposed tariffs of 10% on all chinese goods starting in just 4 days (Feb 1st)
*NVDA is the perfect target to send a message. Most of their production is in Taiwan, and we know how China feels about that. The fact that China can't purchase their super chips is a big slap in the face. It'd be like China growing a bunch of crops in Idaho, only to not sell any food to the US while the US is starving.
*It's a known fact that bots place the majority of trades on the US market these days. China is a master at reverse engineering tech (if not outright stealing it). Knowing what triggers market bots would be easier than supplying a fake narrative.
Nothing about DeepSeek being the reason for the drop passes the smell test if for no other reason than from a logical standpoint...a couple If/Then scenarios:
1) If Deepseek did develop a model for $6M (which would be both insane and extremely unlikely) using outdated tech - Then NVDA's response that they should have their export restrictions removed and the 2nd largest AI market open to them is legitimate. Sales would skyrocket.
2) If this is Chinese misinformation and they're lying about using the A100 chips or the development costs, then why would they do that?
3) If China can't develop their own model without the A100s, what would they do to gain access to them? Then I think they steal the model - either the o1 (openAI) or llama (meta) model and tinkered with it just enough to optimize it as it's performance results are almost identical to openAI's o1 model - DeepSeek's Founder admits "there are no secrets in AI". While models can run on outdated hardware, you can't develop new models in a timely fashion on anything other than the A100s because they're 20x more powerful than the previous chips.
The question is was this China's attempt to trigger a black swan event in the US markets prior to the tariffs being enacted - a financial cold war if you will.
DeepSeek: Interrupt, Reprice and RelaunchCME: Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures ( CME_MINI:MNQ1! ) #Microfutures
DeepSeek might have changed the landscape of artificial intelligence forever.
Since the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in 2022, A.I. ran on advanced computer chips and large language models, costing billions for anyone to get in the game. DeepSeek, a Chinese startup, made a competitive A.I. model for a fraction of the cost, using less advanced chips. With 8-bit instead of 32-bit data, and by using data relevant to the task at-hand rather than keeping the entire database active all the time, DeepSeek cut the training cost by 95% and completed the task with 2,000 GPUs instead of 100,000.
U.S. Stocks were down sharply on Monday on fear of an A.I. stock bubble popping. The Dow dropped 122 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq shed 3.2%, and the S&P 500 slid 1.9%.
Wall Street raises concern that the billions spent to build big AI models could be done with much less investment. AI darling Nvidia dropped 11%, Broadcom lost 12%, and AMD shed 4%. Microsoft lost 4%. Amazon and Meta shed 2.4% and 1.4%, respectively.
This is an example of “selling first and asking questions later”. Investors felt valuations are stretched for technology companies and headed for the exit. This highlights the risk involved in high-tech investment. DeepSeek disrupts the huge competitive edge held by OpenAI and Nvidia, making them less valuable overnight. In balance, a high-tech benchmark like the Nasdaq-100 index (NDX) provides better risk-adjusted returns.
NDX: Past, Present and Future
On midday January 27th, the NDX is quoted 21,137, down 3.0% for the day.
Once the selloff is settled, we want to ask the question: “Is this a normal correction in a bull market, or the beginning of a bear market?” Let’s have a quick look at the past bear markets.
During the dot-com bubble, the Nasdaq Composite Index peaked on March 10, 2000, at 5,048.6. As the bubble burst, the index plummeted to 1,139.9 by October 4, 2002. This represented a staggering decline of around 76.8%. The collapse was driven by the realization that many internet companies were grossly overvalued and unprofitable.
In the 2022 bear market, NDX logged in a huge loss of 33.0%, bigger than that of DJX (-8.8%) and SPX (-18.1%). High-tech companies relied heavily on financing to fund their research, while many of them were yet to be profitable. The Fed rate hikes pushed their borrowing costs up by 500 basis points, worsening their financial woes.
OpenAI's ChatGPT saved the day. This A.I. chatbot redefined the standards of artificial intelligence, proving that machines can indeed “learn” the complexities of human language and interaction.
In my opinion, DeepSeek did not cancel out the breakthroughs achieved by others. On the contrary, by massively lowering the barrier of entry, DeepSeek could quicken A.I. development and its widespread adoption. A new era of A.I.-driven industrial revolution, started by OpenAI and boosted by DeepSeek, has only just begun.
Additionally, Tech giants in the Silicon Valley are not sitting idly. OpenAI responded immediately by making the $200-a-month ChatGPT premium product free for all. The major players will learn from DeepSeek and redirect their research and development. After some short-term declines, the market will reprice the NDX component companies, setting them up for the next phase of the A.I. revolution.
A.I. and Robotic Applications Are a Reality
Last year, I took three trips to China and visited a dozen cities. What I observed there shows you how A.I. technology could be applied right now, not years away.
• In the past, when I ordered takeouts while at hotels, I needed to go to the lobby to pick up my food. Nowadays, the hotel front desk would put my order inside a robot, which would then run and ride the elevator on its own and deliver the food to my room.
• In fact, delivery robots are widely used for hotel room-service in China. They are not just in fancy hotels, but many budget hotels have also adopted them. The hospitality industry is labor intensive. Think about how much the labor cost this could cut down.
• Restaurant patrons in China can scan a QR code to review menu, order food and pay for the meal online. Many have done without waiters, cashiers and printed menus altogether. If you want to save the 20-30% service tips, this may be the way to go.
• Other emerging A.I. and robotic applications include driverless Taxi and food delivery by drone. On the one hand, they threaten the jobs of millions of people. On the other hand, they would save so much money for businesses and help their bottom-line.
The adaptation to A.I. and robotic applications is slow in the U.S. Sometimes, they are being blocked by labor unions, who value job preservation more than anything else. Another reason is the lack of investment in A.I. infrastructure and commercial applications.
On January 21st, President Donald Trump announced Project Stargate, a joint venture promising to invest up to $500 billion for infrastructure tied to artificial intelligence. This is a new partnership formed by OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank.
Separately, on January 22nd, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced that the oil producing country would invest up to $600 billion in the U.S., after his telephone call with President Trump.
To sum up my analysis, it’s my view that A.I. applications are well under way, and large investment would help shore up A.I. infrastructure and steadily deliver cost-saving and efficiency improving applications across every corner of the economy.
Project Stargate, named after the popular sci-fi movie, has the potential to spur another industrial revolution. After the market correction, NDX could rise higher once again.
Trading with Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures
Investors sharing my view could consider the CME Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 futures (MNQ). The MNQ contracts offer smaller-sized versions of the benchmark E-Mini Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ). Micro futures have a contract size of $2 times the Nasdaq 100 index, which is 1/10th of the E-Mini contract.
Micro contracts are very liquid. CME Group data shows that 1,279,703 contracts were traded on January 24th. Open Interest at the end of the day was 100,680.
Buying or selling 1 MNQ contract requires an initial margin of $2,306. With Monday midday quote of 21,156, each March contract (MNQH5) has a notional value of $42,312. Compared with investing in the underlying stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 18 times (=42312/2306).
Hypothetically, a trader waits for the Nasdaq futures price to drop to 20,000 then enters a long order. If MNQ rebounds to its previous high at 22,100, the price change of 2,100 points (22100-20000) will translate into $4,200 in profit for a long position, given each index point equal to $2 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $2,306 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 182% (=4200/2306).
The risk of a long MNQ position is that the Nasdaq goes into a bear market. To hedge the downsize risk, the trader could set a stop-loss in his buy order. For illustration, he would put the stop-loss at 19,500 when submitting the buy order at 20,000. If the Nasdaq declines 20% from its peak of 22,100 to 17,680, the long position would be liquidated well before that, and the maximum loss would be $1,000 (= (20000-19500)*2).
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Hobo is Deepseek exposure: could run hard!The market has woken up to bad news from China with Deepseek. Not going into detail but its generally bad for semiconductors, especially NVDA - which is quite high priced (understatement).
Been looking for opportunities on the other side of this trade and found HOLO. They will be using DeepSeek R1 as the model for their holographic AI engine. Thing is: Deepseek is the hype (just like AI and Quantum was before) and HOLO is probably one of the few stocks that offers exposure AND its only sitting at a 33 million market cap. Jokes, much higher! First target: $7, if rally can sustain for multiple weeks: $18.
I literally just bought, i honestly dont care if it pumped 50% pre-market - its a sign of strength. Let's see, obviously a risky play but also makes a lot of sense. Chart looks good after a retest of previous resistance.
China stocks ready to go? #DeepSeek another reason..This is a chart of the benchmark index for Hong Kong - HK50
It's up on Monday, while Nvidia is down 10+%
If funds are flowing out of Nvidia - China (home of DeepSeek) could be one place they end up.
The Hang Seng is a perfect example of how long a trend can take to reverse.
How many times would traders have tried to go long this index only to see it slump right back towards the bottom?
Now while this trend reversal might be delayed further - and might fail altogether - we think there is enough evidence to suggest a reversal is happening.
The price is above a rising weekly 30 week SMA
A long term trendline has broken
Crucially - the price made a double bottom pattern around 15,000
DAILY CHART
On the daily chart we see the strong surge in buying interest from September has given way to a long multi-month correction.
We are looking for a breakout above the down trendline to demonstrate the correction has finished and a new up-leg is beginning.
The final confirmation would come from a break of resistance (not drawn) from the November and December highs at 21,350.
Should the price turn lower and make a new fractal low under 19,650 then we’ll have to wait a bit longer for the Hang Seng trend reversal.
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request!