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ASTROLOGY REPORT: Buy Bitcoin BEFORE June 8th!!!!!!!!!!!!I am using astrology to let you know that this is extremely serious. This video is NOT about technical analysis. This video is 100% about what is going on with the world news at the moment. The US default glooming news at the doors is real, and I am using astrology to prove it is indeed real and needs to be taken serious. You have to Buy bitcoin NOW, or at least before June 8th. This date will mark the start of the most BULLISH movement ever happened for bitcoin. Balaji was right, but not 100% right. Watch the video. Follow me for more ideas like this, and share your feedback here. thanks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ChemastroOfficial
3
EURUSD - A review of this week's newsWe're beginning to see a Tale Of Two Economies emerge, as US data this week shows the path of disinflation continues, albeit slowly, giving investors hope that the Fed's interest rate increases are making an impact. Meanwhile across the pond, all quotes from the ECB are warning that the fight against inflation rages on and further rate hikes will be coming. However, one major factor hanging over the Dollar is the news that there is "significant risk", according to the CBO, that the US won't be able to pay all of it's obligations as soon as the beginning of June, leading to the possibility of a default unless Congress votes to raise or suspend the Debt Ceiling. From a technical perspective we see EURUSD failed a number of attempts to break through at the highs and has now begun to create lower highs and lows with it's violent moves down in recent days. Key trendlines and support levels have been broken and all signs point to the countertrend move having begun. While we appear overextended on lower timeframes, it may be prudent to wait patiently for a new lower high for a viable short entry. It seems likely that we're witnessing a breakout to the upside on the DXY combined with profit taking and shift in sentiment for the Euro due to continued inflationary pressure in contrast to US inflation. United States (US): US CPI YoY 4.9% (Forecast 5%) : Consumer prices rose 4.9% on an annual basis, below forecast. US Core PPI YoY Actual 3.2% (Forecast 3.3%, Previous 3.4%): The US core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3.2% year-on-year, slightly below the forecasted 3.3%. US PPI MoM Actual 0.2% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous -0.5%): The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis, slightly below the forecasted 0.3%. US Initial Jobless Claims Actual 264k (Forecast 245k, Previous 242k): The number of Americans filing for initial unemployment benefits rose to 264,000, exceeding the forecasted 245,000. This increase suggests ongoing challenges in the US job market. The “single biggest threat” to the economy now is the US hurtling towards a default on its obligations, said Karine Jean-Pierre, press secretary. European Central Bank (ECB): ECB: Consumers see 5% inflation over the next 12 months vs 4.6% in February : The European Central Bank (ECB) reports that consumers in the Eurozone expect inflation to reach 5% over the next 12 months. This represents an increase from the previous estimate of 4.6% in February, reflecting growing concerns about rising prices. ECB's Nagel says the "latest interest rate hike won't be the last". ECB's Lagarde spoke on Thursday, saying "the fight against inflation isn't over".
Short
by HayeTrading
2
USDPKR about to hyperinflate? Pakistan will default?USDPKR is closely following USDLKR before the Sri Lankan Rupee hyperinflated in April 2022. Below USDLKR can be seen creating a pattern in 2020 and 2021 very similar to what FX_IDC:USDPKR has been doing in the last year. Here is what happened after Sri Lanka defaulted, and FX_IDC:USDLKR went from 200 to 360 in a matter of days Given the above fractals, is it possible that Pakistan can defailt soon? If it does and it follows through on the pattern, USDPKR can jump from from the 280s to the high 400s very quickly.
Long
by Sikbh
1
Credit Suisse Price Channel PainI don't love the idea of making grandiose predictions; I prefer to see everything in ranges of probability. That being said, the few simple tools I have added to this chart seem to have rather negative implications. There may be other price levels that are noteworthy, but I see the psychological levels of $10 and $3 having importance here. $6.50 as a previous ATL. $2 Psychological Support Level currently bearing the brunt of the weight. The wick of the current candle falls below to the current ATL of $1.76. I have marked a vague price channel towards the end. End result is a possible price channel to $0. To me, this doesn't look great. Take everything anyone says with a grain of salt. DYOR/DYOC. Commentary welcome; I don't mind being wrong, especially in this case.
NYSE:CSShort
by mrniemeier
Don't fear the capitulationINVESTMENT CONTEXT Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the key priority of the Fed is bringing down inflation, even while acknowledging that monetary policy can't address critical components like food and energy. Powell also a stated a recession is “certainly possible,” but not in the near term as the U.S. economy remains “in good shape.” Turkey's central bank is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at 14% on June 23, after it kept interest rates deeply below zero when adjusted for inflation. Norway's Norges Bank is instead set to hike its key rate 25bps to 0.75% Russia is facing three interest payment transfers totaling almost USD 400mln on June 23-24, but more pressing is a Sunday-night deadline on previous missed payments from late May. If the country fails to make those payment - ca. USD 100mln of bond coupons - it will effectively be declared in default Global bank Citi said the probability of a recession is now approaching 50%. The Bank expects 3% growth for the world economy this year and 2.8% in 2023 U.S. President Joe Biden called for a gasoline tax holiday, in an effort to relief households from pump gasoline prices, which briefly surpassed USD 5/gallon BTC trades have entered a dangerous (4) channel with trading range set between 19-21k as volumes fail to return to the blockchain space PROFZERO'S TAKE Value investing has been the key theme across Q1 and most part of Q2 this year, as investors unloaded Growth assets whose bulk of profits are located deep into the future, hence more exposed to higher interest/discount rates. That trend is set to reverse should a recession materialize. In particular, the undisputed champions of the past 150 days, namely Oil & Gas stocks, may steeply retrace as energy demand is threatened by slowing pace of industrial expansion, particularly in China. ProfZero warned back in April that the fat dividends paid this year may dwindle in 2023 as a protracted bear market triggers a recession; consistent with that, ProfZero maintains faith in Value-like Growth stocks, which enjoy state-of the-art balance sheets; top cash generation; and most importantly excel at intangible assets and services - natural price deflators for the economy ProfZero concurs with ProfThree thinking one step ahead - demand for industrial commodities is by definition pre-cyclical, and any slowdown in the near-term should be taken as an early sign of a cooling global economy. Seeing Brent crude tumbling more than 2% just on recession concerns confirms in ProfZero a sense of unease while looking forward on Energy equities; thinking even further though, the feeling of concern permeates the post-recession recovery, whose seeds do not look planted as of yet PROFTHREE'S TAKE One of the commodities to watch this week is iron ore, which has seen a slump to USD 110/ton on June 20 after topping USD 150/ton just two weeks ago. Profs’ eyes are obviously on China (ca. 60% of global steel output), where demand seems to be under threat following the news that steel mills are cutting production in response to weakening real estate sector. ProfThree contends iron ore quotes are finally close to their fundamentally justified levels after a long period of speculation-driven pricing. Yet, a further dramatic correction could still happen since the second half of this year is expected to bring an increase in steel output from China, compensating for the 10% y-o-y output reduction in Q1 due to the Olympics-related emission restrictions. ProfThree also sees infrastructure spending and targeted fiscal as well as monetary stimulus also to prove supportive to supply, thus boosting prices
by ProfZero
Russian government and corporate bonds about to default.Before the war Russian reserves amounted to 630 billion USD, a conservative estimate puts them to this date @ around 500 billion USD. Every day that the war lingers on, costs russias coffers 15 to 20 billion USD. This is not considering the additional sanctions and exclusion from the banking system slapped on Russia this weekend. Following the debacle of the Russian army in the Kharkiv region and the complete surrender of their troops in this region, Putin ordered to ramp up the use of heavy equipment and to send more troops and equipment to try and conquer the city. This will considerably increase the cost of the war for Russia. Also, this debacle is likely to trigger a wave of cancellations of orders for Russian military hardware, which has proven its self ineffective, specially after the downing of a SU35 (Russias top fighter jet) by a Ukranian SU22. Russia, home to 140 million needs 200 billion USD to ensure the population doesn't starve. At this rate, they will reach this threshold within 10 days, absent of a victory. Also, must be noted that a political victory is now impossible for Russia which was its primary objective for starting this war. Tomorrow the markets will open and within a few days the future of Russia will be decided by its ability to raise cash. The charts suggest these are out of the window and hedge funds may be placing their bets on a total Russian default.
RUS:RGBI
by csmottola71
Is Evergrande the next Lehman Brothers ??China`s economic model is based on real estate investment to drive growth. 20 Mil apartment buildings per year. China`s residential property is 20% of GDP every year. Too much! Real estate activities in China close to 30% of GDP every year. Huge! Chinese Government is Bashing the private sector, look at GOTU and BABA for example. Evergrande, second largest property developer in China has more than $300 billion in debt! Evergrande has $83.5 million interest payment Sept. 23 and a $42.5 million payment on Sept. 29 Failure to to pay in 30 days can put Evergrande in default. Today Evergrande has a Market Cap of 30.099B! At its peak, Evergrande was traded 13.5X higher! Evergrande’s potential debt blowup can send shock waves through financial markets! Today was just the beginning.
HKEX:3333Short
by TopgOptions
11
Dynex - where to next?Thanks for viewing, Wow, some interesting keywords in their business description; - LEVERAGED buyer of CMBS products (as you know, leverage works both ways. To juice gains or to ensure out-sized losses), - ADJUSTABLE-RATE mortgages (I suppose not so bad - unless interest rates increase which to be fair seems unlikely right now), - office buildings, retail, hospitality, and healthcare (all sectors hit super hard by the current health crisis. Healthcare because everyone is cancelling elective procedures - where all the money is made). Default rates of CMBS products above 10% in June 2020 www.cpexecutive.com but have reduced somewhat in the 2 months following. I'm sure that is good news - unless the reduction was due to "forbearance" - when banks just allow a break in payments of overdue accounts (no chance of a debt default if you don't call in your debts). Around half of the increase from ~2 to over 10% delinquency was from mortgages over 90 days overdue and at least part of the decline was due to banks deciding not to require payments (for some undetermined amount of time). Its like 2009 again - just replace CDO with CMBS and residential with commercial property. Asset backed securities are great - unless the value of the underlying asset declines significantly - which it has. I don't know where it will go, up down or sideways All I know is it is in a down-trend and the return in no way reflects the massive risk. It seems tailor made to get flattened by the current environment.. AVOID AVOID AVOID. Or buy, its up to you. Maybe the Fed will bail it out.
NYSE:DXShort
by flyinkiwi10
Evictions Galore - Prepare for some more Fed Rule-BreakingWell it's starting: www.washingtonpost.com Unpaywalled article about the same thing: money.yahoo.com So many Americans, 45% of whom*, who do not even have a dollar in savings, and most of those are lower-class, nonsavers who are renters who don't get the benefit of forebearance, are now facing the ensuing reality that we don't live in a benevolent despotate where the king can just forgive all the poor peasant saps. Instead, we live in (the remnants of) a free market, capitalist nation, that runs on "make money or fuck off" (kinda... sometimes.... well if you're not disabled, nonwhite, a woman, or have kids). www.statista.com * Easily way worse nowadays It looks like the reckoning is nigh, and we are about to face another good lot of craziness for a couple months (or maybe more if we are lucky). We have a load of debtor, drunkard Americans who work unskilled service jobs about to be homeless, or are already packing their bags. Meanwhile, many American homeowners are being saved, for the time being, by forebearance. On the other hand, there are issues like this*, 9/10 New York businesses not being able to pay full rent. nypost.com So what do we do with all this information? What does it tell us about the future? Much similar to my last article, there is a coming big change to the way debt will have to be handled as to prevent a massive bust - in this case, prevent millions of Americans becoming homeless within a few months to a year. If so many of these nonsaving, generally low IQ, probably prone to anger (vengeance-seeking is an attribute of lower IQ people. Can't control impulse.) people are going to lose their fancy leveraged lifestyles they have been given on a silver platter by a thieving government (that stole it from the Chinese and all the other third worlds that could benefit from taking back what they've been giving us for decades) then they'll probably wanna start rioting and throwing up signs about how angry they are, maybe even start hurting people they deem blameworthy. Where do we go from here? There'll have to be massive action from congress and the Fed. That's it. The dollar is gonna have to take a big ole kick to the teeth to prolong the damage that has been done by the onset of sober reality to our nonexistent economy. I think the couple months of waiting for something to happen will pay off by the end of the year when either we have another nice drop in the stock market (making Donald Trump shart his pants), or the Fed enacts that beautiful cryptocurrency*, lowers rates, buys corporate bonds, delivers bailouts, or finds some way to unconstitutionally defy the law written for them. www.bis.org
FRED:FEDFUNDSShort
by MoneybagsMcGee
BAILOUTS FOR GOVERNMENTS ARE THE REAL PROBLEM!I SEE MANY PEOPLE COMPLAINING ABOUT BAILOUTS FOR THE PRIVATE SECTOR! HOW ABOUT THE REAL PROBLEM: BAILOUTS FOR GOVERNMENTS! I WOULD BET MY LIFE SAVINGS THAT THE ECB WILL GUARANTEE THAT ITALIAN (AND EVERY OTHER EUROPEAN NATION'S) BOND YIELDS REMAIN SUPPRESSED BY SACRIFICING THE VALUE OF THE SAVINGS OF EVERY PERSON IN EUROPE! UNTIL GOVERNMENTS ARE ALLOWED TO DEFAULT, WE WILL CONTINUE A STEADY MARCH TOWARDS GLOBAL COMMUNISM! WESTERN CIVILIZATION, THE FREEST AND MOST PROSPEROUS COLLECTION OF INDIVIDUALS IN THE HISTORY OF THE PLANET, WAS BUILT ON PRIVATE SAVINGS ACCRUED THROUGH EXCESS PRODUCTIVITY (ACCUMULATED CAPITAL)! THE RIGHTS OF THOSE INDIVIDUALS AND THE VALUE OF THAT CAPITAL IS ON THE VERGE OF DESTRUCTION!
TVC:IT10YShort
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
1
If BND Ever Does This Again, Beware29th of November, 2007 - bond market experiences a flash crash which is quickly bought up by the FED in an effort to prevent widespread debt defaults. Worked for a few months only for companies to begin defaulting anyway, probably through a series of realized margin or interest spike risks. This is what caused the financial markets to implode in 2008. Watch and study the bond market, it can tell you more about medium to long-term market direction than any other indicator.
NASDAQ:BND
by Derivati_Capital
3
Deutsche Bank ($DBK): Weekly - Fractal - Default Risk increasingAs the default risk for Deutsche Bank keep increasing by the day it is now technically ready to move lower towards it's default target of 0.11€ it is still to date the most obvious contagion to the stock market crash of this decade. However the most likely target on the way down will first be 2.5€ which sits on the trendline from the top notation in May of 2007 which will hit once the fractal from the period 2007-02-26 - 2008-11-17 is activated. I remain a seller on Deutsche Bank ($DBK) till that target is hit.
XETR:DBKShort
by Keytrader
1
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US DEBT COST IS AT HISTORIC LOWSDue to continuous demand for US Treasury securities over the last 30 years and due to global deflationary pressures, triggered by globalization (cost optimization of global businesses) - the yields of 10 and 30 year Notes continue to decline along their long term descending trend line The result of such a development - is the current cost of US debt is lower than ever, which in turn allows larger external debt to be held by the States. As one can see in Monthly Treasury Statement - Net interest is the lowest type of Outlays in the US Budget higgs.rghost.ru (scource: www.fiscal.treasury.gov)
TShort
by Killy_Mel