Defense
PalantirPalantir engages in the development of data integration and software solutions. It operates through the Commercial and Government segments. The Commercial segment offers services to clients in the private sector. The Government segment provides solutions to the United States (US) federal government and non-US governments. It offers automotive, financial compliance, legal intelligence, mergers and acquisitions solutions. Its products include Palantir Gotham and Palantir Foundry. (Via Robinhood). I'm big on the defense sector and knowing how much the government trusts this company I need to take a deeper look. The main thing that impressed me with Palantir outside of their general scope of business was the attractiveness of the Hedge Funds that has this in their portfolio. I normally don't bank on things like this. However, Vanguard (5%), Blackrock (4%), and State Street (1%) has this in portfolio. I do need to do more research on this company I will admit, but I'm confident that we are at a good price now for a good profit down the line (1 year or more out). Looking at the chart, looks like we on a retracement to the upside with a recent bear flag breakout. On the 15 min TF (This is the daily) there is a gap that needs to be filled around $23.66 It also seems as if price wants to break past the 20/50 ema if it does reach that gap which would be a good thing for shareholders. As I do more research, I will up my consideration!
What do you think?
Like, Follow, Agree, Disagree!
Go long LMTTrading in a channel with some healthy consolidation. 50 day SMA passed through 200 day SMA (Golden Cross)
Trading at a discount with only a 15 P/E ratio.
Fair Value Estimate from Morningstar: $436
Implied Upside from Last Close: 15%
Lockheed just landed a big sale to Switzerland of their F15 jets beating out Boeing
UAVsAeroVironment, Inc. is an American defense contractor headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, that is primarily involved in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) (Wikipedia)
I have been eyeing the military industry for some time, but the stocks have never reached the price I would take. Anyway, AeroVironment looks among the best in the sector from both technical and fundamental perspectives.
The technicals:
There is a double top pattern that developed itself into a triangle. The bottom is specified by two significant lows exceeding a round number 100.0 to the downside. The most significant gap is in the location too.
I expect a lot of liquidity below the yellow rectangle. If we ever reach there without an overall market crash, I'll create the entry there. It's probably the last line of DEFENSE against the bear market. Remember, that the big players need that extra liquidity to open a significant position.
The fundamentals:
The drones were used in recent conflicts against both a professional army and militia/guerrilla force with great success. Even though, the army makes it clear that UAVs are not a replacement for any part of the military, the spendings on both the research and the development increases over time (Statista).
However, the coronavirus might cause some material issues, and increases in spending might be halted (Ibisworld), it is a kind of technology the US will not want to fall behind in. Well, it has already started to fall behind as Turkey develops the first 'dronecraft carrier'. I think the cuts are rather to hit other parts of the defense sector.
I like AeroVironment specifically because, with its focus on UAVs, it is likely to fight for the contracts in this category most hard and the price is as a result derived mostly from this growing part of the sector.
The crash:
The question is if there is enough time for the buying opportunity to develop & profit from before the markets crash. I will be looking for an opportunity between 95-100$, but might not decide to invest at all in the end.
Boeing In Clear Ascending ChannelBoeing Current Price - $253.15 Price Target - $320.
The CDC is now saying once you get vaccinated you dont need to be quarantined to travel. They even said you can travel with a vaccine at “low risk” this is huge for aviation sentiment which was already strong and growing. With consumer saving rates at an all time high and the green light to travel from the CDC expect Boeing to roar next week. Orders for American Airlines & Alaskan Air last week is just the start of new orders for Boeing, after this news more airlines will be looking to make investments into aviation. The recent engine issues that grounded some planes is a minor fix and wont seriously impact Boeing.
BAH a tailwind into a Cup and Handle With recent cyber security hacks plaguing the US online infrastructure, a company like $BAH will have no problem meeting expectation. Given this bullish tailwind, I went looking for a pattern formation I could trade on. I opened up an old favorite book The Encyclopedia of Charts and looked up the parameters of a Cup and Handle (a tradition favorite). What I read was primarily that a good Cup and Handle starts with a 30% "Bump and run" as seen in the blue highlighted box. The book stated a U shape cup with a 5-30% rounded bottom is ideal, like that in the highlighted red box. For a proper Cup and Handle (40% potential rise after the handle) I would need to see the right lip get near (lower is better) the price of the left lip. Followed by a rather dramatic handle formation during the following two weeks.
Lockheed profit target 25%I picked up some Lockheed Martin today, because both value and sentiment on the stock are looking too good to resist.
Value
I estimate Lockheed's forward P/E at about 12.5, which is really cheap for a megacap. Forward P/S is 1.5, and forward dividend yield is over 3%. I estimate Lockheed's PEG ratio at about 2, with the annual earnings growth rate sitting near 4%, the sales and dividend growth rates closer to 2.5%, and the free cash flow growth rate near 5%. These are pretty great numbers. Lockheed has about 23% upside to its median price multiple of the last 4 years. Its main competitor, Boeing, has been hemorrhaging money like a catastrophic head wound hemorrhages blood. Meanwhile, Lockheed's been enjoying tailwinds from recovery of TSA throughput numbers, proposed acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne, and announcement of a large UK military budget this year.
Sentiment
Analysts give Lockheed an average rating of 7.8/10, a solid "Buy." This rating has recently improved a few points. S&P Global gives Lockheed's fundamentals an average score of 77.25/100. Its ESG score is about average for its industry. Open interest from options traders is in very bullish territory, with a 30-day put/call ratio of 0.5. TradingView's technicals-o-meter is flashing "buy." The average analyst price target for Lockheed is more than 15% above the current price.
Trading plan
I sketched out a tentative view on how Lockheed might move from here. We're sitting right at a resistance and hopefully about to break out. If we get through resistance here, I'm looking for a fairly decisive move to about $394.50. From there, I'm thinking we dither for a while. A lot will depend on conditions in the larger economy, but with vaccinations, stimulus checks, and geopolitical tensions, I suspect Lockheed will eventually break out toward its all-time high. If it hits my second target, the profit from the trade will be about 25%. I'm hoping it gets there by the end of 2021.
Is something about to happen in the Defense Industry?The algorithms, specifically, the Precise Signal is at it again. The signal is a SELL for Northrup Grumman. Historically, the Precise Signal indicating a SELL sees the stock move down an average of 10%. In fact the minimal drop for this signal with NOC is 7%. Considering Friday saw the stock drop 3% off its high, another 7% (or more) would be huge.
My MTFs also signaled SELLs, but since the Precise is built off of them this a not a surprise. For you technical junkies, the full analysis with each target is at my site for free as always
Lockheed Martin - Great Buying Opportunity LMT is getting pressure downwards however I am bullish on the company and stock. I believe the stock is currently undervalued considering the Biden administrations policies and what it would mean for defence stocks. This price level has supported the stock price and I believe it will breakout upwards from the descending resistance line. Either way, considering the support line, it is a good reward for risk to buy the stock with a SL below the support zone.
HXL - Hexcel Corp - Be Careful of Earnings Jan25th (aftermarket)HXL - Hexcel Corp
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Entry = break above 786fib @ 49.95
or breakdown to 382fib @ 36.98
1st Target = 56
2nd Target = 64
HODL Target = 76+
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This content is for informational, educational and entertainment purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice.
Good luck, happy trading and stay chill,
2degreez
RTX Long Raytheon Tech Corp Com ( RTX ) looks to break out of a bull flag after a ABC correction. On the daily timeframe , we have a pin bar on the 50 EMA signifying a support zone . February option contracts have good Open Interest (OI) and volume . Daily squeeze with momentum curling on the daily and hourly timeframe. Look for a break of top trendline
XAR- AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE 🚀one of our favorite ETFs 🚀Apologies for the many 'rockets' lately, we have been using the rocket on our Bitcoin chart but originally the rocket things started from and belongs to XAR AEROSPACE AND DEFENCE ETF.
Fundamentally, with the huge amounts being invested in aerospace (and defense), this sector is expected to fly and to thrive.🚀
Our market segmentation analysis has proved to help us 'Buy the strongest' and 'sell the weakest', for years now.
XAR is an ETF which can deliver excellent returns for us in 2021 to 2025.
FROM STATE STREET:
The SPDR® S&P® Aerospace & Defense ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the S&P® Aerospace & Defense Select Industry® Index
Seeks to provide exposure to the Aerospace & Defense segment of the S&P TMI, which comprises the following sub-industries: Aerospace & Defense
XAR AEROSPACE AND DEFENCE 🚀our favorite ETF is in Orbit 🚀We have been doing so well on AEROSPACE AND DEFENCE ETF and happy to say it has just broken 2 majpr resistance levels in 1 session!
We are keeping our buy positions until it reached record highs and will be keeping an eye on this for the future.. for a long time
Fundamentally, aerospace and defence are industries that have a bright future and are becoming increasingly important
Northop Grumman a buy near trend line supportDefense contractor Northop Grumman fell hard toward trend line support both before and after its earnings report last Friday, despite a solid beat of analyst expectations. The fall has occurred as analysts adjusted forward estimates of earnings and sales downward for the next two years. Despite the downward revisions, Northop Grumman remains a growth company, with PEG ratio of 1.8.
The share price has fallen much faster than earnings expectations, making NOC a very attractive buy as it approaches support. Let's look at NOC's current price ratios compared to its three-year median price ratios on earnings dates. Here is the implied upside from the current price ratio to the median price ratios on earnings dates over the last three years:
P/E: 21%
Fwd P/E: 18%
P/S: 17%
Fwd P/S: 21%
P/D: 17%
Fwd P/D: 23%
P/B: 31%
P/FCF: 81%
Sentiment on NOC is positive, with an 8.3/10 analyst summary score (average rating Buy). The news environment for the company is good, thanks to several US government contracts recently signed, and several others recently successfully completed. Open interest on NOC is about evenly split between bulls and bears, but the 30-day average of trading volume favors the bulls.
NOC is nearing support from July lows and a seven-month trend line. I will look to make a buy around 287.
ALSN wrong-way earnings move offers buying opportunityAllison Transmission annihilated analyst estimates for its earnings and revenue yesterday, spiking 10% after hours but falling during the daytime session today to below yesterday's close. Not only did Allison post a beat for the third quarter, but it has also seen upgrades to its earnings estimates for the next couple years. Allison also got recent good news when the US Army gave it an innovation award for onboard energy conversion in military tactical vehicles, and when Allison and IndyGo announced a partnership to build hybrid electric buses.
In P/E terms, Allison might look a little expensive. It's trading 27% above its median P/E on earnings dates over the last 3 years, 10% above its median forward P/E, and 8% above its median P/FCF. In forward P/S terms, however, it's cheap at 18% below the median. Likewise, it's 24% below the median P/D and P/B of the last three years. The somewhat higher P/E multiples are warranted because of growth expectations. With a PEG of 1.6, Allison is priced for growth.
Sentiment on Allison is fairly good, with about 11% upside to the average analyst price target, and a 7.7/10 analyst summary score (average rating "Buy"). Put/call ratios are bullish. In terms of technicals, Allison has dipped back below a trendline and dropped to a volume support node. Allison might get a bound from volume support here at 35.50, but it would be an even better buy if it dips to 32.