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Deflation

Deflation has started 2022. Dollar on the rise to previous highs WTI: Deflation has started 2022. Dollar on the rise to previous highs WTI has no room to be in Extended Range any longer. With Stocks and inflational products keeps going lower. Dollar domination is just getting stronger and VIX is still supressed relative to history. All this is about the breakout to the upside. Oil will reach 65 WTI price this month because of producers price is at 65. This price will get consumer back in rough times. Consumer spending in oil/gas is at lowest level. Remember supply and demand. Oil has been trading in static trading range, meaning oil price will go lower in time not higher. There is too much oil stored and prices are just pumped by inflation and war. Everything that has inflational status will go down hard still. See 50-70% drop still in stockmarket and so with energy prices. 10x natural gas is not sustainable either. Be ware and take care. Best Regards R.B
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by PivotX
3
FED Pivot?This chart suggest a FED pivot arriving much sooner than some may suspect. Compared to 2016 - 2019, the fast & big drop that usually follows a euphoric peak, came much quicker for this year. Given how much money printing went on during the pandemic, it's worth considering that this might be simply the first and second Elliott Waves for commodities, but there will be big corrections along the way, and since inflation is the rate of rising prices, not the price change itself, it would not be surprising for the FED to declare victory sooner than later. As for the fact that recessions often coincided with rates dropping, today is not comparable because the FED only started raising rates recently. It is arguable that the FED actually raised rates roughly around the right time, not "too late" as some would argue.
AMEX:DBCShort
by Indotermes
Inflation Update. Possible first wave?CPI-U is reported at 8.5%. The alternate CPI-U from 1990 has inflation around 12%. The alternate CPI-U 1980 has inflation around 16.5%. This has triggered the markets sentiment that inflation is over to go hog wild on it's Goldilocks targets and head higher on the SPX. To bring inflation down to the target of the FED now becomes the discussion. The market is seeking the fastest way to get the tightening cycle to stop. Like an addict searching for their next hit the question is how thick will the sugar coating get before the sun rays from the new recession and its implications dissolve the deep snow pack. Boy is it a blizzard coming down. The two paths from here are #1 does the market whine that inflation is coming down fast enough now so the FED over did it tightening rates and this recession is bad so please print me some dopamine. Or #2 is inflation going to come down fast enough for growth to bottom out and rebound higher so the FED can stop and print me some dopamine to stimulate the bottom of the trend to have the downturn be as short as possible. Either way the next 6 months will be the market trying to cajole the FED into please print some more money. The wider trend after that is the classic hyperinflation trend. A small inflation wave that wakes up the public to inflation. Followed by a small deflation wave to catch market participants off guard and make money. Followed by an over correction and printing of currency resulting in a bigger second inflation wave. Followed by a second larger deflation wave with further over correction and printing. Finally causing a rollercoaster crash into hyperinflation where inflation jumps from 20% to 700% in a month. This takes years to play out and is by no means guaranteed but definitely a model to keep in mind. If such a rollercoaster crash plays out hard assets are the name of the long game while volatile assets are the name of the short game. Real estate, and gold, with Bitcoin and ETH as insurance purchased at the bottom of deflation waves just as the FED pivots. Short term moves into and out of energy and food commodities for 3-6 month positions during inflation waves depending on market information. Stay safe out there. See you on the moon.
SP:SPXShort
by GreatScottTheMoon
1
Dollar targets 103/111As per previous ideas i believe the dollar is setting up for a strong move up This is in line with deflationary/ bear market expectations Here we see the 15 year dollar cycle I'm not sure whether this will triple top or false break out I think it willl be the final big move up for the dollar which will then go into decline presumably with more QE and possibly a debt default That would be the time to hedge against inflation, not now G.R.I. Dec '21 NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
TVC:DXY
by Great_Reset_Investing
1
$XLV:$KRE: Deflation winners and losersWe're seeing value health care ($XLV) show a lot of relative strength against other sectors as the dollar has been pushing. ($KRE) is often tied to growth when compared to it's bigger brother ($XLF) and eventhough financials do tend to benefit from rising rates, this has been much more of a hard landing and the financial rotation many expect may not come to pass, instead look for $XLV to continue soaking up 2022 when compared to other sectors.
AMEX:XLVLong
by Fox_Technicals
$AMZN: Down trend slowing down...There's a possibility of further downside for $AMZN over time, but currently, price action and the drop in commodities suggest that $AMZN is likely to go higher for a while. Until the next FOMC meeting, market participants might bet on a Fed pivot taking place sooner rather than later, given the drop in commodities suggesting inflation might be under control already. I personally think what comes after it is a recession, particularly if the Fed stays in the same hawkish course for longer...For now I'm out of bearish positions and went long using options in a few select names, as well as stock positions in names like $TWTR and $TSLA, etc. Upside here is good, see the yellow boxes for time and price targets in the immediate short term. What comes after this relief rally until mid to late July is to be seen. Will know more when we get there. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by IvanLabrie
1
SPX - Update on the S&P500 last moveHello traders, Today on SPX, a lot of movement with the announcement of the CPI index report, which equals to 8.6%....wHaT a SuRpriSEeee!! even though we know it is supposed to be even higher....anyway... all investor are afraid aff, of course, and here are the result...! I show you in the analysis below how I approach the last move with the Elliott Waves analysis Wave green (b) retracement on (a) Wave orange C extension Wave white 3 extension Wave white 5 extension
OANDA:SPX500USD
by ModTrades
1
Inflation: long term top or century breakout?Inflation Hits Fastest Pace Since 1981, at 8.5% Through March Gasoline weighed heavily in the increases, while prices moderated in several categories. Some economists say the overall rate may have peaked. Inflation hit 8.5 percent in the United States last month, the fastest 12-month pace since 1981, as a surge in gasoline prices tied to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added to sharp increases coming from the collision of strong demand and stubborn pandemic-related supply shortages. Fuel prices jumped to record levels across much of the nation and grocery costs soared, the Labor Department said Tuesday in its monthly report on the Consumer Price Index. The price pressures have been painful for American households, especially those that have lower incomes and devote a big share of their budgets to necessities. But the news was not uniformly bad: A measure that strips out volatile food and fuel prices decelerated slightly from February as used car prices swooned. Economists and policymakers took that as a sign that inflation in goods might be starting to cool off after climbing at a breakneck pace for much of the past year. In fact, several economists said March may be a high-water mark for overall inflation . Price increases could begin abating in the coming months in part because gasoline prices have declined somewhat — the national average for a gallon was $4.10 on Tuesday, according to AAA , down from a $4.33 peak in March. Some researchers also expect consumers to stop buying so many goods, whether furniture or outdoor equipment, which could begin to take pressure off overtaxed supply chains. By Jeanna Smialek NYT April 12, 2022
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by youknowram