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Deflation

STOXX 600 (BANKING)STOXX 600 BANKING -as indicated on the chart. the blue highlighted area is a buying opportunity with to much risk for me, so i will not participate, the greater opportunity is a SHORT, i will also not participate. The take away here is that prices can tumble all the way down to the yellow zone and a new normal will emerge in the most devastating deflationary market the world has ever seen - In line with my expectation that crypto currencies like Bitcoin, Ripple and Euthereum will sky rocket to new highs and make many rich in the a world of new normal!!
SWB:EXV1
by UnknownUnicorn1530896
Market melting up & endgame for S&P 500Yes the Fed isn't the only factor driving the markets up, however fundamentally the market should be going down. Interest rates have been a big factor to the market melt up but mostly due to the Fed pumping liquidity across all sectors, and there is more to come as there is no limit to how much they can print during a deflationary crisis as inflation is delayed (2-3 year delay). Printing currency has its benefits and drawbacks but to save the economy printing short term was the right thing to do, and yet a side effect of this is the re inflation of the equity bubble or even a inflation into a hyper bubble. The Endgame however is inflation of 10% + when the economy recovers and the liquidity finally shows up.
SP:SPX
by Chazza_208
INFLATION VS DEFLATION!INDUSTRIAL METAL PRICES HAVE BEEN SQUEEZED BY 2 OPPOSING BUY-SIDE FACTORS: 1) A SLOWING, DEPRESSIONARY WORLD ECONOMY WITH DIMINISHED DEMAND FOR ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS, ALONG WITH A GLOBAL DOLLAR SHORTAGE! 2) CENTRAL BANKS ENGAGING IN RECORD-LEVEL CURRENCY CREATION COMBINED WITH UNPRECEDENTED FISCAL STIMULUS BY GLOBAL GOVERNMENTS! IF INFLATION PROVIDES SUPPORT TO THE PRICE OF OIL, INDUSTRIAL METALS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN PRICE FROM THEIR '15-'16 BOTTOM!
TVC:USOILLong
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
Lessons to Learn from HertzHertz is a 102 year old rental car company with 38.000 employees and over $20 billion in enterprise value. Stock value was $20 just a few months ago and was under $2 after the close on Friday after the bankruptcy announcement. As the price fell the last few months around 45,000 Robinhood users bought the stock on the way down (and who knows how many users on ETrade, etc). I'm sure they saw a well known company at a big discount, and were hoping for a rebound when things returned to normal. However they are not very happy right now. Other people who aren't happy are lenders of the $18 billion in debt the company owed. That debt was an asset for those lenders, it had a value and an income stream that is now significantly impaired (if not devastated). That's billions of dollars now simply GONE in the Deflation of 2020--vanished in less than 3 months. Maybe there will be a restructure and some recovery, but that's a question for the future. Right now there are a lot of effected people who are poorer as a result who might not spend as much in the future or perhaps won't be able to make their debt payments, leading to further deflation. And this is just one company. Over 500,000 Robinhood users have bought American Airlines as it fell. 450,000 have bought Carnival Cruise Line. 280,000 have bought Boeing. 140,000 bought MGM Resorts. Etc., etc. I've read reports that a lot of ordinary people have put money into the market (stimulus checks right into the casino!) and are at home during the shutdown trading. This reminds me so much of 2000 where so many people, including myself, lost their savings in an ugly bear market. The current economic situation we're facing is unprecedented. The closest comparison is The Great Depression, and in many ways this is worse. IMO we're unlikely to see a return to normal for a long while, but rather people and businesses will be careful and reduce spending. Unemployment will be slow to recover. Money will be scarce and defaults and failures of indebted businesses like Hertz will continue to rise (which of course means banks are going to get hammered). The stock market and other assets will fall again and all those investors will lose their savings and be forced to reduce their spending even more. That loss of savings, reduction in asset values, increases in unemployment, debt defaults, etc. all lead to even more asset value reduction, defaults, etc. THAT is deflation. It's a viscous cycle and it isn't so quick to go away that a couple weeks of decline in the stock market is all you see of it. Anyone that thinks we're headed back to a rising market is delusional. I wouldn't buy any stock that has been hammered by this situation. Those stocks are down for good reason. In fact I wouldn't buy any stocks at all for a while (maybe more than a while). Deflationary environments are the ugliest situation for investors, and the US hasn't seen such an environment for nearly 100 years. This is the 100 year flood the old-timers warn about. This is the time to keep your cash safe so you'll have the means to buy after the markets have been devastated. Losses in the 1930's market were -87% over 3 years. Losses in the Japanese 1990's deflation were -80% over an even longer period. We haven't seen the end of this situation yet, it's just beginning. The virus was only act one.
H
by MystryBox
52
PETER SCHIFF VS JEFF SNIDER!THIS POST WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE COMPETING VIEW POINTS ON THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR RELATIVE TO OTHER CURRENCIES! JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF DOLLARS WORLDWIDE TO CONDUCT GLOBAL TRADE IN, DUE TO THE FED'S INABILITY TO TRULY SATISFY DEMAND FOR U$Ds, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES ARE SOLD TO BUY U$Ds. PETER SCHIFF'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF AN IRRATIONAL FAITH IN THE U.S. ECONOMY BY FOREIGNERS AND THE WILLINGNESS OF PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE TO USE AND ACCEPT PRINTED U.S. DOLLARS IN GLOBAL TRADE, SUBSIDIZING THE CONSUMPTION AND TRADE DEFICIT OF THE U.S. JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE U.S. GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET HAS BEEN BID HIGHER FOR DECADES AS U.S. TREASURIES PROVIDE THE SAFEST SOURCE OF U$Ds AND ARE THE MOST ACCEPTED FORM OF COLLATERAL FOR U$D LEVERAGE. IF U$D LIQUIDITY BECOMES CONSTRAINED ENOUGH WORLDWIDE, A SELL-OFF IN THE GLOBAL U.S. TREASURY MARKET CAN OCCUR AS THEY ARE SOLD FOR THE IMMEDIATELY NEEDED U$Ds, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. PETER SCHFF'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S ARTIFICIAL SUPPRESSION OF INTEREST RATES SINCE THE 1990's THROUGH QE , COUPLED WITH THE USE OF U$Ds IN GLOBAL TRADE AND THE IRRATIONAL FAITH BY FOREIGNERS THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE COULD SHRINK ITS BALANCE SHEET AND NORMALIZE INTEREST RATES HAS LED TO FOREIGN CAPITAL BIDDING UP THE PRICE OF U.S. GOVERNMENT BONDS. ONCE THAT FAITH IN THE DOLLAR'S SCARCITY IS DIMINISHED AND PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE REFUSE TO HOLD/ACCEPT U$Ds AND SUBSIDIZE AMERICAN CONSUMPTION, U.S. TREASURIES WILL BE SOLD-OFF, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. JEFF SNIDER'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: AS LONG AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE FAILS TO ADDRESS THE COMPLEX NEED FOR U$Ds AND AS LONG AS THE U$D REMAINS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, DEMAND WILL OUTPACE SUPPLY, AND THE U$D WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES UNTIL A CULMINATION OF DEFAULTS AND RESTRUCTURING RAVAGES THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST SEVERE LACK OF U$Ds, SENDING THE U$D SKY HIGH, LEADING TO AN ABANDONMENT OF THE U$D AS WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. PETER SCHIFF'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: ONCE PRODUCTIVE COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE BECOME DISILLUSIONED WITH THE AMOUNT OF EASILY CREATED U$Ds CHASING PRICES, THE APPETITE TO ACCEPT THOSE U$Ds IN EXCHANGE FOR GOODS/SERVICES AT CURRENT PRICES WILL DIMINISH, ALONG WITH THE DESIRE TO HOLD U$Ds, U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES. ONCE U$Ds AND U$Ds OBTAINED THROUGH THE SALE OF U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES ARE SOLD FOR OTHER CURRENCIES, THE U$D WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, FURTHER INCREASING THE PRICES OF IMPORTED GOODS/SERVICES, SENDING THE U$D INTO AN INFLATIONARY SPIRAL, MARKING ITS END AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. IN THIS CASE, IF THE FEDERAL RESERVE MONETIZED THE SOLD U.S. TREASURIES TO PREVENT INTEREST RATES FROM RISING, THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO HYPERINFLATION. -THE NOTES ON THE CHART REFLECT KEY EVENTS THAT MARKED THE PEAK IN THE U$D's EXCHANGE RATE VS OTHER CURRENCIES
INDEX:DXYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
PETER SCHIFF VS JEFF SNIDER!THIS POST WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE COMPETING VIEW POINTS ON THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR RELATIVE TO OTHER CURRENCIES! JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF DOLLARS WORLDWIDE TO CONDUCT GLOBAL TRADE IN, DUE TO TO FED'S INABILITY TO TRULY SATISFY DEMAND FOR U$Ds, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES ARE SOLD TO BUY U$Ds. PETER SCHIFF'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF AN IRRATIONAL FAITH IN THE U.S. ECONOMY BY FOREIGNERS AND THE WILLINGNESS OF PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE TO USE AND ACCEPT PRINTED U.S. DOLLARS IN GLOBAL TRADE, SUBSIDIZING THE CONSUMPTION AND TRADE DEFICIT OF THE U.S. JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE U.S. GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET HAS BEEN BID HIGHER FOR DECADES AS U.S. TREASURIES PROVIDE THE SAFEST SOURCE OF U$Ds AND ARE THE MOST ACCEPTED FORM OF COLLATERAL FOR U$D LEVERAGE. IF U$D LIQUIDITY BECOMES CONSTRAINED ENOUGH WORLDWIDE, A SELL-OFF IN THE GLOBAL U.S. TREASURY MARKET CAN OCCUR AS AS THEY ARE SOLD FOR THE IMMEDIATELY NEEDED U$Ds, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. PETER SCHFF'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S ARTIFICIAL SUPPRESSION OF INTEREST RATES SINCE THE 1990's THROUGH QE, COUPLED WITH THE USE OF U$Ds IN GLOBAL TRADE AND THE IRRATIONAL FAITH BY FOREIGNERS THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE COULD SHRINK ITS BALANCE SHEET AND NORMALIZE INTEREST RATES HAS LED TO FOREIGN CAPITAL BIDDING UP THE PRICE OF U.S. GOVERNMENT BONDS. ONCE THAT FAITH IN THE DOLLAR'S SCARCITY IS DIMINISHED AND PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE REFUSE TO HOLD/ACCEPT U$Ds AND SUBSIDIZE AMERICAN CONSUMPTION, U.S. TREASURIES WILL BE SOLD-OFF, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. JEFF SNIDER'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: AS LONG AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE FAILS TO ADDRESS THE COMPLEX NEED FOR U$Ds AND AS LONG AS THE U$D REMAINS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, DEMAND WILL OUTPACE SUPPLY, AND THE U$D WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES UNTIL A CULMINATION OF DEFAULTS AND RESTRUCTURING RAVAGES THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST SEVERE LACK OF U$Ds, SENDING THE U$D SKY HIGH, LEADING TO AN ABANDONMENT OF THE U$D AS WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. PETER SCHIFF'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: ONCE PRODUCTIVE COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE BECOME DISILLUSIONED WITH THE AMOUNT OF EASILY CREATED U$Ds CHASING PRICES, THE APPETITE TO ACCEPT THOSE U$Ds IN EXCHANGE FOR GOODS/SERVICES AT CURRENT PRICES WILL DIMINISH, ALONG WITH THE DESIRE TO HOLD U$Ds, U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES. ONCE U$Ds AND U$Ds OBTAINED THROUGH THE SALE OF U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES ARE SOLD FOR OTHER CURRENCIES, THE U$D WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, FURTHER INCREASING THE PRICES OF IMPORTED GOODS/SERVICES, SENDING THE U$D INTO AN INFLATIONARY SPIRAL, MARKING ITS END AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. IN THIS CASE, IF THE FEDERAL RESERVE MONETIZED THE SOLD U.S. TREASURIES TO PREVENT INTEREST RATES FROM RISING, THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO HYPERINFLATION. -IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE 0% YIELD ON U.S. 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND IS A DANGER ZONE IN EITHER CASE, AS FOREIGN ENTITIES WILL NO LONGER HAVE AN INCENTIVE TO HOLD U.S. TREASURIES, PREFERRING CASH, GOLD OR OTHER ASSETS OVER A NEGATIVE YIELDING BOND. -THE NOTES ON THE CHART OFFER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS AS TO WHY YIELDS BOTTOMED OR PEAKED AT VARIOUS POINTS DURING THIS BOND BULL MARKET.
TVC:US10YEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
Money Velocity is in Complete FreeFallM2V most recent data is from December 2019. It is likely near zero at the present moment. Some voices are saying that the Fed liquidity and balance sheet expansion is inflationary, but the charts tell a different story. The velocity of M2 is in complete freefall. We have reached the point where interest suppression is no longer an effective tool for monetary policy. It doesn't matter how low rates go or how much the Fed is willing to lend, people don't want to spend or borrow, and insolvent businesses are going to self-liquidate. People are hoarding cash, and rightfully so. You can't print your way out of a global demand shock and supply shock. If you study M2V closely, it tells a story. What you'll see is that the Fed has been in a liquidity trap for the last 20 years. To avoid a big deflation they've pushed rates lower and lower to stimulate growth now and push the problems down the road, but now we're at the end of the road and facing a bigger deflation than we could have ever imagined. There's no more growth to stimulate.
FRED:WM2NS
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
2
GDP? More Like Debt-Financed ConsumptionNotice the time period where the rate of change began to significantly increase. Sad that TV doesn't have the data but if you go and look, inflation from 1700-1900 was extremely stable. Not the "2%" per year inflation of today, was more like gradual deflation over time, with certainty that your money would be worth the same 100 years from now. During the classic gold standard era, from 1870-1910, real growth averaged 8-10% per year, and we had 3% deflation per year. The banking system of today is based off of printing lots of money, getting caught in a liquidity trap, and then being at risk of a major deflation because you thought you were smart enough to inflate an asset bubble with no consequences. That's where we are at right now. Very similar to 1929.
FRED:CPIAUCSL
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
Stocks Peaked 20 Years Ago. US Perma-Bulls are Chasing a BubbleIn nominal terms, US stocks have gone higher and higher over the last 20 and 30 years. This is priced in US Dollars. Priced in terms of real money, stable money, the US stock markets and the US real economic growth peaked 20 years ago. Over the last 20 years we've printed a crap-ton of money to paper over the losses and make ourselves feel richer, but it's all been an illusion. A money printing fueled bubble. And the most recent cycle peaked in September of 2018, when the Russell first entered into a bear market and when the gold bull left the train station. In terms of what's happening right now: The Russell is sitting at the top end of its range right underneath major resistance. Without big stock buybacks driving the market there won't be enough buying power to send it to new highs. The Fed can print as much money as it wants but it can't stop a massive global shock. Money velocity is at ZERO. Doesn't matter how much money you print, you can't fix a solvency problem with more liquidity. You can only buy yourself short slivers of time. Its only a matter of time before economy gravity is respected and the global markets, including the US equities, get absolutely cratered.
TVC:RUTShort
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
1