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Deflation

Gold isn't trading as a safe haven. Gold is not a safe haven, it’s a hedge from fiat currency. Portfolio allocation needs to match your personal risk-spectrum. A common misconception is that people look to gold in times of uncertainty. Gold is not a safe haven, it’s a hedge from fiat currency. A good example is comparing the price of gold to the S&P500 in 2008. Theoretically if gold was an anti-risk asset and the SP500 rises (risk-on), then the price would fall. Why? There was concern in the market that Q.E. and the expectation or rate cuts would cause inflation. It didn’t and gold rallied. Furthermore, gold has one of the worst trading sessions in a few months, which was in the peak of bullish volatility for the DXY and equities. In 2019, the dollar had a rally even though there were various Fed rate cuts. Yet now, the DXY is falling against the Euro,Yen and CHF. This has to do with the interest rate differential between rates attached to the U.S. dollar and the Euro. As you may know, the Fed has no room to lower rates at this point. Future contracts are set for a 100% chance of a hike for the next Fed meeting. My personal opinion (comparing the 3 month-10year bond yield curves) that this will be the beginning of the true deleveraging of the American Economy, right around June or July. There is greater downside adjustment for the USD rather than the the Euro, Swissy, Yen. But if you look at NZD/USD and AUD/USD, there is clear room to cut .These are both reliant on external demand vs. the internal consumption dynamic from the USD. What will happen in the coming months is a hike in interest rates, forced inflation, same huge spreads, a housing collapse, and stagflation followed by deleveraging. Maybe Jun through August. If we can get an interest rate adjustment from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Royal Bank of Australia which will flatten the interest rate differential. However, against the Euro, Yen, and Frank, the Dollar will fall as there is more downside adjustment comparatively. The 50 bp cut from the Fed (the only time in history that it happened since Lehman brother) was negative which was interesting. Prior, officials stood by a “material change” to the outlook on growth. I think this proves that the Fed recognized in a fearful way—acting bold rather than sticking to their usual “wait and see” approach.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TayFx
1
The start of a huge bull run in BTC again?Patterns and price action repeats itself over and over again in markets. Time and time again we see assets with their own specific price action characteristics repeating which can present us with fantastic opportunities to get into the market. Here you see BTC price action (blue) in 2015 following the LTC (Litecoin) halving which led to a bull run that reached $20,000. The price action is strikingly similar to the current BTC price action after the 2019 LTC halving with one major difference: we have encountered an enormous unforeseen deflationary spike as a result of the Coronavirus pandemic which has led to a hefty drop in BTC price. Just before this deflationary spike, BTC was following an upwards trend to the 10,500 mark which in visual terms matched almost precisely what happened in 2015 (check the comparison of price action). With the Federal Reserve flooding the markets with liquidity and massively increasing the circulation of dollars in the system to try and inflate our way out of this crisis, I find it hugely improbable that the markets will suffer any more drops of significance which leads me to believe that BTC will continue on its original path upwards. With the purchasing power of the USD set to fall off in light of the Fed's mass printing, this will push prices in BTC higher and with a shortage of the only other tangible and unprintable assets on earth (commodities ) it is my belief that considerable amounts of money will enter Bitcoin and the crypto space in general, therefore, price action will continue in its original path.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by jakecarling41
7
Big price collapse in oil may push dollar higher, gold lowerIt's not a good time to own the traditional safe havens of gold and silver amidst deflationary pressure on the dollar from oil's selloff. True, the federal government is injecting a lot of cash into the financial system and has interest rates at zero, which traditionally would be inflationary. But the price drop in oil is just SO big that it offsets those drivers of inflation. In my opinion, cash remains the best investment until oil prices stabilize.
FX:XAUUSD
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Bitpanda BEST investment updateIn this link you can find all the related information about the tokenburn. Overall ~ 11.000.000 tokens were burned (thats about 2% of the current circulating supply and 1% of the overall supply) and new features for BEST were added. blog.bitpanda.com This tokenburn event will now continue evey three months until 50% of the total supply is burned. The chart shows that due to very overextendet indicators and expectations of some investors, the actual valuation of the BEST token dropped for now, down to the golden ration 0.618 fib support. This level is the next bigger supportive confluence zone. Next to the fib retracement level we can see the daylie bollinger mean line (dotted line) that acted as resistance in the downtrend and the 200 day SMA line. The investors now have to decide how to value this Token correctly. My personal bias over a longer time period of time is bullish. Bitpanda is still one of the biggest austrian startups and the deflationary mechanism of the Tokenburns as well as the overall growing userbase on bitpandas plattform supports my thesis. The tokenburns now act as quaterly milestones and will be underlined by further developement progress of bitpanda. Thanks for reading my updates yours F P
B
by passio
Bitpanda BEST investment updateAccording to my previous analysis Bitpands own Ecosystem Token broke out, due to the earlier release of the the first Token burn on 30.01.2020 in the coming week as well as the announcement of new perks/features for BEST holders, next to the high fee reduction bonus. If the actual high is really in there is huge support at 0.0655 € . If this is an impulsive wave to the upside i estimate higher highs. People had good time to accumulate at lower levels (under ICO value) and are potentially now focusing on increased token price performance. Further updates in the future. Greetings F P
BLong
by passio
Copper testing bounds of decade necklineCopper is interestingly a great gauge of economic health coming from Asia, and also a relevant view on global growth / inflationary expectations. We've been battling two head and shoulder formations since the GFC. First, the very large commodity bubble formed a big head and shoulders that peaked roughly around 2012, a time where China had maxed out its credit expansion. We got a smaller head and shoulders in the post 2015-2016 deflationary episode that tested the original trendline and bounced during the 2016-2018 bull market. The smaller head and shoulders finally broke down, which led to Copper testing the boundary of the bigger head and shoulders. I expect this to break, although there will likely be some testing of this first. Note: this is not just a technical move. There are many fundamental reasons Copper is breaking down, mostly macro related to USD strength, asian weakness, over-expansion of Chinese credit, weakening demand, etc etc. Copper interestingly mirrors the Korean Kospi index very closely, and that is also breaking down from a major long term trendline right now. Expect more deflation, and some big market problems when this finally confirms the break of the lower trendline.
COMEX:HG1!
by GTStockmaster
XRP daily 5-16-2019 (golden cross imminent) Here is a look at a prediction I am making. I dont usually do this but since its not really a price prediction I am gonna throw this out there. The golden cross worked well with BTC and many other Alts so I am keeping an eye on this. We have already seen a 25%+ increase over the past few days. Maybe this was in anticipation of the future golden cross? Maybe not. I just want to document this so I can watch to see how it unfolds and learn from the results. I like dropping links to various articles I wrote in the past in these ideas I post daily. This write up I am sharing is my article about inflationary vs deflationary currencies. medium.com Happy trading everyone :)
by UnknownUnicorn4304403
Base Money - First Time EVER!The Base money of the U.S. has cross below the 200x2Wk SMA for the first time ever. It is a 200 SMA of the 2 Week print or data reading. This is just how the FED reports, every two weeks. However, it has crossed below the 200 SMA. This to me is signaling a DEFLATIONARY Event is on the horizon. When money is taken out of the system at this rate it will be DEFLATIONARY. Followed by a Hyper-Inflationary environment to correct. The next couple weeks will be important to watch to see if the FED corrects this right away or lets us slip into the hole of no return for a while. What do you guys think? Remember....this has never happened since we started keeping track of our BASE MONEY.
FRED:BOGMBASE
by jasonroy40
Why gold may fall back down to below 400/oz USDGold is still a bubble. Bubbles that rise over 600% in 10 years don't deflate by simply going down 50%. Most bubbles of this nature deflate back to close to their original value. In this chart, I explain a lot of the fundamental factors that drove gold price higher, China's role in gold, and why a Chinese hard landing (if it occurs) will cause a new great deflation, which will see gold fall back to it's values in the early to mid 2000's. Trading idea? As a long-tail hedge, you can play for an enormous tail-risk return by purchasing OTM leap puts on the ETF $GLD . January 15th 2021 puts with a strike price of $90 provide a 70x payout on the value of the original put option if $GLD falls down to $40 per share. This is a reasonable expectation if this plays out in the way described here. This is my big-short. Obviously it requires things to line up to occur, but I feel like the possibility here is very real, and nobody is expecting this to happen despite the fundamental basis that aligns quite well with the technical view of Gold. If it happens, it will surely be called a black swan in hindsight, but I feel this is more a gray rhino. It's not hard to see if you simply look at what is happening / what happened. Much thanks to Jeff Synder for information on the eurodollar system that helps put all of this in perspective: www.alhambrapartners.com For some great analysis on China, I encourage people to read deep-throat-ipo.blogspot.com which provides excellent, if sometimes scary analysis on what is happening in the east. And as always, take your own risks. This isn't necessarily a play on what is most likely to happen. It's a play of "heads I lose a little, tails, I win a truckload". Please do not dump your savings into something like this.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by GTStockmaster
Bond H&S = risk off deflationary + curve inversionMeasured moved based on H&S break has this moving approximately 10%. We're currently looking at a retest of the break, but it's fading fast. When combined with the record net-short interest here, this could be a fast move, and could even invert the yield curve in one fell-swoop. If so, this would be reminiscent of the 2000 yield curve inversion, which happened extremely quick, and occurred around the same time the bear market started. Note that the big drop after the head that occurred around May 25th was a global collateral call. That alone is reason to realize that liquidity is not what we thought and there may be more problems in the global dollar funding system than many would know.
TVC:US10Y
by GTStockmaster
2
Silver Explosion | SLV for the long termWith crypto and stocks, many overlook that boring shiny thing that used to be the basis for sound money. Personally, i like the actual physical silver...and it's a good idea to have some for a rainy day...or financial collapse....or a zombie apocalypse (and based on how many people are on side-effect laden meds, maybe that's not so far away, though i digress). But for now, I wanted to draw your attention to some things to note for silver. In this SLV chart, you can see a bollinger band squeeze never seen before since SLV was created. You can see prior movements when the bollinger bands got anywhere near this close... Also, there is a years long trend line on RSI.. and another trendline to notice on MACD. I can't be sure, but just considering mining costs, the price of silver can only go so low. Also, there is threat of inflation (as well as deflation) and there have long been publications about global dwindling supply of silver and COMEX rigging with JP Morgan and HSBC and a whole bunch of games with the paper price of silver while the real physical metal is acquired...on and on... Anyway, be on a lookout for silver to finally spring after being coiled for so long.
AMEX:SLVLong
by Procinctu
GoldCoin/USD (Goldcoin Token) Bye BUY GoldCoin ShortsGoldCoin/USD (Goldcoin Token) 05/12/18, 7:25 PM EST, by Michael Mansfield. Hi trader friends, I iope your weekend is a fun or fulfilling one! With practically all of the volume occuring on the up bars since the late March low, another good sized up move is in the cards onces this corrective wave is complete. Moreover, a with the large bullish volume on the up waves, a big down move is statistically less likely right now. But, we deal in probabilities not certainties, so it's still a possibility if the up move off the February low was was only a large corrective wave. But that certainly looks less likely now. Either way, uncertainty is why we always recommend the use of stop loss orders, not "HODLING" forever, in these digital markets. CLARITY: Without candlestick wicks, the price moves and waves look very clear to me: The January to late March decline was corrective. Conversely, the up move since the late March low looks very much like a bullish impulsive wave (uptrend, not up retracement). CORRECTIVE WAVE: This current correction is either a triangle, soon to be over, or a zigzag with one more wave lower to the Wave IV label. BUY CONFIRMATION: If 0.30 is exceeded on the upside, then the next upwave, Wave V, or Wave 3 of larger degree Wave (3) to the upside, will likely be underway. CONCLUSION: Once this short-term corrective Wave IV is complete, hopefully after one more push lower, then a Wave 5 up, or possibly 3 of (3) to the upside is likely. NEGATED: Should GoldCoin/USD break below 0.19, then this bullish outlook would be cancelled and GoldCoin/USD would likely fall back to below the March 2018 low. DISCLOSURE: This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk! Michael Mansfield CIO
GLong
by UnknownUnicorn1613901
1
What will happen in the Netherlands and deflation or inflation?CHARTDESCRIPTION If the (ETF) AEX will break this level i only prefer to go long if the RSI, MACDI,(Slow) Stochastic and Bollinger Bands will give me a positive signal. I'm on this moment concernd about the level we have reached, because there are many signs that the current stockmarkets are overvalued (for example the new ticker SNAPCHAT wich is to much overpriced) Also the ECB has now a new problem. They turned 'deflation' into 'pushinflation'. Wich concerned me, because wages hasn't rise at all. There is only more demand for labor (read: seasonal work).
EURONEXT:IAEX
by tmp_cox