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Delta

Sceptical indicators, strategies or tools? Thoughts? So this post is a little different - it's not an analysis or really a tutorial. I am looking to see what the community sees as the strangest, craziest, most colourful, most interesting or pointless indicator, strategy or tool? About 2 years ago I was shown a strategy/technique - I assumed it was complete rubbish, it talks about Lunar dates, cycles. Now although cycles play a role in the market - I wasn't convinced it was powered by the moon. At first, I was very dubious about the concept of what seemed a sceptical idea. Over the years I have studied Fibonacci, Elliott, Gann, Wyckoff and often see logic to the idea. Now and again something pops up on the radar & I like to explore it. I've tested Algo's and Robots, strategies that claim 97% success rate. You name it and it's possibly sitting in the junk hard drive with my FX/trading pdfs, indicators & videos. Delta Phenomenon In the early 80's, Welles Wilder founded the Delta Society International. His purpose was to share the “secret of the order behind the markets.” This order, the Delta Phenomenon, is the basis of all market movement relative to time. All other methods of technical analysis are enhanced by this timing tool. As you will learn, the Delta Phenomenon gives a higher probability of trading success to existing systems. Mr. Wilder states "I have solved the Delta Phenomenon for many different markets over hundreds of years of data and I have never seen a failure in this order." Now at this point - I'm thinking, why isn't this mainstream or this guy not locked up in a nuthouse? I had read other Wells Wilder books and found them to be overly simplistic. In that regard, I was not disappointed. Now as I said at the start of this article, I'm not looking to teach the method - it's such a strange concept, I thought there must be other people out there with things they find interesting or pure crazy? Pitchforks for example - why do they work, how do they work? (not a question, more a statement) How about Gann? Why and how can Gann techniques plot trend lines for the future? Master of the Universe - Fibonacci levels - Again, why??? If you look at the dates on the chart above - these are forecasted using the delta technique, in theory, it's trying to predict moves in the market using moon cycles. Blank circles are daily turn points, circles & dots are major moves and the large circles with both, are dates whereby both near and medium dates co-exist. I am keen to hear what you think? Do you know of the delta phenomenon? Have you used it? What about something else similar? or just something you find interesting or/and random? How about something you are sceptical about? Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
8
That’s it for DELTA Delta this year’s price movement may looks very unique and exciting. But if you look back at the history, many other stocks also performed this price movement as well. I think GL can resemble DELTA. The reason that DELTA can do 10 fold in only one year period is because of market’s high volatility and DELTA size which can attracts more Prop trader and investment funds. For me, this price should be ( if not ) very near the highest price. I would be so surprise if DELTA price still stand higher than 200 by the end of next year.
SET:DELTAShort
by JirathB
BEAR TREND SINCE MARCH 2018 COMING TO A CLOSEAirline sector trend reversal should take place come the end of the year. History repeats itself and we are on the verge of a trend reversal. Extremely bullish on this sector over the next quarter. Bullflag pattern repeating itself over and over on the 4HR time frame. After each extension upward, set your SL at 50% of the flag pole length to mitigate risk and enjoy the ride. Other sectors like utilities & cruise lines all have the same charts and patterns as they are moving in sequence. Make sure to choose the better companies of each sector. I do not hold a position in AAL. My largest holdings at the moment are BA, PCG, and TLRY. - GL
NASDAQ:AALLong
by MarketMotion
2
Options Delta ExplainedI’m Markus Heitkoetter and I’ve been an active trader for over 20 years. I often see people who start trading and expect their accounts to explode, based on promises and hype they see in ads and e-mails. They start trading and realize it doesn’t work this way. The purpose of these articles is to show you the trading strategies and tools that I personally use to trade my own account so that you can grow your own account systematically. Real money…real trades. What is Delta? What is Delta? You see options prices are influenced by what they call the Greeks. A few of the Greeks are Delta, Gamma, and Theta. These are just three of the Greeks there are more. When you’re trading options, it is important that you know about the Greeks and what they do. For this article, we will focus on Delta, what it is, and why you should know exactly what Delta is. Then we’ll go through a specific example explaining it, and then I’ll share with you a few things that you need to know about Delta. So let’s get started. The Greeks OK, so as I mentioned, there are the option Greeks. Here are a few of them and what they tell you: 1) Delta is actually measuring the sensitivity. It’s a mouthful, but I’ll show you exactly what it means, for the option’s premium relative to the underlying asset in this article. In a nutshell, though, it basically says, how much does the option price change if the stock moves $1 to the upside or the downside? 2) Gamma is the rate of change of the Delta. 3) Theta , and Theta basically measures time decay. What Is Delta? So what is Delta? Delta is a number between 0 and 1 that measures how much the price of an option changes if the stock moves by $1. I know all of this sounds super theoretical, so let me actually give you a specific example. Now, the example that I want to use here is Microsoft MSFT when it was trading at $211.20. I want to cover different strike prices of options, because, again, options have strike prices and expirations. We are looking at the current price of this option and we will look at the new price of this option if MSFT moves by $1 from $211.20 to $212.20. When you bring up the option chain in your trading platform, in my case I use Tastyworks, the option we are using as an example is expiring on November 27th. Here, you would see there are different call options on this site with different strike prices. You would also see that they have all sorts of different Deltas. So let’s get started with the 205 that is right now trading at $7.30, and the Delta is 0.8. Remember, the Delta is 0.8 because again, the Delta is between 0 and 1. I’ll tell you about negative Delta in just a moment. The current price of the option is what we are seeing right here. We look at the last traded price, the last traded price is $6.92. So what does it mean? It means if MSFT goes up by $1 to $212.20, that the new price is $6.92 plus the Delta ($0.80). So, you see this where it’s really important that you understand Delta. Some people think that options move even more than the stock, and this is not true at all. So option prices always move less than the stock price. So the new price here of the option would then be $7.72. So this is for a strike price of 205, and this is a strike price that is so-called ITM “In The Money” because its value, its strike is less than the current price. Now let’s take a look at a strike that is at the money. Now assuming MSFT is trading at $211 we will use the 210 strike price. The 210 strike price has a Delta of 0.57, and this would be a so-called ATM “At The Money” with a Delta of 0.57. Again, it is between 0 and 1. The current price of the 210 strike here is $3.05. We are using the last traded price here. So if MSFT moves by $1 upwards, this option only moves 0.57. So this means that this option moves to $3.62. Lets cover one more example. So if we are using a strike of 215, that would be OTM “Out Of The Money,” and the Delta is 0.27. So the current price of this option is $1.06. So if the stock moves up by a dollar, this option only moves up by $0.27. Even though the stock moves up by $1, this only moves to $1.33. Things You Need To Know So let’s talk about the things you need to know. Options that are ITM have a higher Delta then options OTM. So this means that ITM options move more. Now, if you were to look back at your options chain, you see that the Delta for deep in the money options is 0.98. So this basically means that if the stock goes up by $1, the price of this option goes up by $0.98, so the deeper in the money, the closer to $1 the price will move. So options that are ITM are more expensive. This is where it’s important that you see that there’s a relationship between the Delta and the price. The higher the Delta, the higher the price, because the higher the Delta, the more it is in the money. As a rule of thumb, options ATM “At The Money” which are right where the strike price is right at the level where the current price is, are usually around 0.5. Now, all this applies to call options. Now put options have a negative Delta which is between -1 and 0. Well, the price of a put decreases if the option goes up. So the Delta for put options is all negative. Now, put options that are ATM, are usually closer to one. And options that are OTM, don’t move a whole lot. This is very important because some people just think, “Oh, my gosh, I’m buying out of the money options because they are cheap. It is so much cheaper to pay $1.6 than $6.92.” But they don’t really move a whole lot. Now here’s a really cool tip that you might not have known. The Delta is a rough estimate of the probability of the stock price closing above the strike. So here, you see with a delta of 0.8, it means that there’s an 80% probability right now that the stock will be above that strike price. If the Delta is 0.27, then that means there’s a 27% probability that the stock will be above that strike price. So I think it’s kind of cool as an options trader to know this. So the Delta is giving you a rough approximation of how likely is it that the stock will be above or below the current strike price on exploration. Now here’s the tricky part, Delta is not fixed. So the Delta changes as the price changes and here’s why. Right now, if, for example, MSFT (trading at $211) goes up to 215, the current strike price of 210 is deeper in the money therefore, then the Delta will be higher. So now you know what Delta is, how it influences the option price, and you see that this is important when you are trading options.
TVC:NDQ
by rockwelltrading
BABA: Comparing Time Frames for Clarity. Did We Find Something?BABA has recently been beaten down by bad news losing almost 20% of it's entire value in just over two weeks. This puts us past a simple correction and may indicate participants are looking for a new price level and new technical structure. The bulls did a great job on the way up (since March) however they did not technically build out a lot of trend support. That's what the bulls are dealing with right now. A lack of uptrend technical support. We do have some horizontal support lines we will be watching along with a potential price zone. IF price gets to this area I expect buyers to step in. However, with the lack of technical trend support, it may be difficult for the bulls in the near future. Indicator When we look at our CDV on both time frames, we see a possible indication of further bull action still in the market on the 2Day time frame. This signals bullish momentum is still in the market and we may reverse soon. However, on our 8h time frame, our CDV is completely inline with price action, leaving up us to question, who really has control? I've marked out historically how closely price action has correlated with the CDV for clarity. There is usually about a +/-3% buffer between the two. NYSE:BABA
NYSE:BABA
by jakelikesstocks
2
DELTA - its doesn't look greatThanks for viewing and sorry all those Aviation types who are hurting. Just a short one, Demand is deeply impacted, and there are yet to be any signs of a pick-up as yet. Stocks don't often lose 69% in 60 days and then just turn around and head for new all-time highs. Especially, when two studies came out last week showing how the virus - that shall not be named - can easily spread on-board aircraft. After a solid rejection at the 200EMA I am watching the $17.55 level as support, but I don't expect it to hold. After that, ~$14 at the 1.618 extension on what I believe may be the start of wave 5 down.. This is based 99% on TA and 1% the general environment presently. I don't want it to happen, that is just where I see the price going. I am not short Delta, but I also won't be a buyer at lower prices.
NYSE:DALShort
by flyinkiwi10
3
Delta Slow climbAlthough earnings reports are showing to be weaker than than of other airlines, Delta has been able to reduce their cash burn rate and help to mitigate overall losses. After taking a sharp drop down from progressive movement upwards, the technicals are starting to show a potential support level testing a higher low. Using a standard deviation measurement and taking into account current trend lines the target range for profit is above the trend line within the range.
NYSE:DAL
by AirMarketGroup
1
Trader's Guide to Vertical Debit SpreadsThe strategies and ideas presented in this guide have been designed to provide you with a comprehensive program of learning. The goal is to guide you through the learning experience so you may be an independent, educated, confident and successful trader. There are numerous variations of traditional options strategies and each has a desired outcome. Some are very risky strategies and others require a considerable amount of time to find, execute and manage positions. Spreads are a limited risk strategy. Spreads Spreads are simply an option trade that combines two options into one position. The two legs of one spread position could have different expiration dates and/or different strikes. Spreads can be established as bearish or bullish positions. How the spread is constructed will define whether it is bullish (rising bias) or bearish (declining bias). Different types of spreads can be used for the same directional bias of the stock. For example, if the stock has a declining bias, a call credit spread or a put debit spread could be opened to take advantage of the same anticipated move down. In this guide we will be talking about Vertical Debit Spreads, which are a limited risk strategy. Learning how to manage risk is as important as learning the details of a strategy. Vertical Debit Spreads A vertical debit spread is created when an investor simultaneously buys-to-open (BTO) one option and sells-to-open (STO) another option. The premium paid for the BTO is always greater than the premium received for the STO thus, creating a net debit from the trader’s account. Example: BTO a call using the May 180 strike for a debit of $7.57 STO a call using the May 190 strike for a credit of $3.42 Net debit for the spread is $4.15 The proper construction of a vertical debit spread is to BTO an at-the-money (ATM) strike and STO the strike that is 5 – 10 points further out-of-the-money (OTM). When opening a call debit spread, further OTM means a higher strike. When opening a put debit spread, further OTM means a lower strike. Both legs are opened on the same underlying equity and use the same expiration month. The Delta Ratio Delta is a factor in how profitable a debit spread may be. When the underlying stock moves, the value of the options will change at the rate of the Delta. Delta values will be different for different strikes depending on how far out-of-the-money or in-the-money the strike is. Look at an options chain for the current expiration month. Find the Delta of the at-the-money strike and compare it to the Delta of a strike 20 points out-of-the-money. The ATM strike will always have a higher delta than the OTM strike. This means that the value of the ATM strike will change more quickly than the OTM strike, as the underlying stock moves. When properly constructed, a debit spread is designed to take advantage of the Delta relationship between the long and short options. By STO a strike further out-of-the-money than the BTO strike, the long leg will increase in value more rapidly than the short leg. This is referred to as the Delta Ratio. Put debit spreads are used when the stock shows a declining bias. Puts increase in value as the stock decreases in value. In this case, the long put would increase in value creating a profit. The short leg would increase in value creating a loss. However, as we learned earlier, due to the Delta Ratio, the long put is increasing in value faster than the short put is creating a loss. This will create an overall position profit as the stock moves down. Here is an example: Stock trading at 520 and has a declining bias. BTO 520 put STO 510 put This spread creates a debit of $4.80 Stock declines to 510 causing the values of the puts to increase. The position can now be closed for a profit. STC 520 put BTC 510 put The value of the spread has increased to $5.80. Since the stock declined in value, the put options are more expensive. The spread was BTO for a debit of $4.80 and STC for a credit of $5.80 resulting in a $1.00 profit. Call debit spreads are used when the stock shows a rising bias. Calls increase in value as the stock rises. In this case, the long call would increase in value creating a profit. At the same time, the short call would increase in value creating a loss. However, as we learned earlier, due to the Delta Ratio, the long call is increasing in value faster than the short call is creating a loss. Stock trading at 500 and has a rising bias. BTO 500 call STO 510 call This spread creates a debit of $4.80 Stock rises to 510 causing the values of the calls to also rise. The position can now be closed for a profit. STC 500 call BTC 510 call The value of the spread has increased to $5.80. Since the stock increased in value, the call options are more expensive. The spread was BTO for a debit of $4.80 and STC for a credit of $5.80 resulting in a $1.00 profit. Risk and Reward on Vertical Debit Spreads Reward The maximum profit that can be earned from a vertical debit spread is equal to the width of the spread minus the cost of opening the spread. For a vertical debit spread to realize the maximum potential profit, both legs of the spread would need to expire in-the-money which means the position would need to be held until expiration. I do not recommend holding positions until expiration. Short term movements in the stock/index plus limited time value decay provide opportunities to close out positions for a profit of about 10%. If a position is profitable and the trader decides to hold the position hoping for a bigger profit or in an attempt to carry the position to expiration, there is a good chance that the profit will disappear and the position could turn into a losing position. This also will increase the risk of assignment/exercise if trading an American style expiration. A good way to lose money is to wait for a bigger profit Risk The maximum risk, or potential loss, from a vertical debit spread is the net debit (cost basis) of the spread (BTO leg debit minus the STO leg credit). Example: BTO 2765 call for a debit of $11.70 STO 2770 call for a credit of $8.30 Cost basis of the spread is $3.40 $3.40 is the maximum risk. A maximum loss will occur when both strikes are out-of-the-money at expiration. Learning how to properly adjust positions will avoid this. A trader establishes a bullish (call) debit spread when the chart indicates a rising bias. The breakeven point is the lower strike price plus the net debit. Referring to the example above, if the stock was at 2768.40 at expiration, there would be no loss and no profit. Example of breakeven point on above debit spread: Stock settles at 2768.40 at expiration The 2765 strike is $3.40 ITM, the value of the strike has $3.40 of intrinsic value and no time value. The 2770 call expires OTM worthless and you keep the 8.30 of credit as profit. Since you do not want to exercise your right to own the stock, you sell the 2765 back at the price of $3.40. This results in a $8.30 loss. $11.70 BTO – $3.40 STC = $8.30 loss You get to keep the original credit of $8.30 from the 2770 call. This netted against the $8.30 loss results in breaking even on the position. A trader establishes a bearish (put) debit spread when the chart indicates a rising bias. The breakeven point is the BTO (higher) strike price minus the net debit. Calculating the Return The profit percent return is calculated by dividing the profit by the risk. After all, if the trade lost 100% of the risk that is the amount the trader would no longer have. In the example above, the net risk is $3.40. If the debit vertical spread trade resulted in a $1.00 profit, the percentage return would be 29.41% ($1.00 / $3.40). Lower risk drives higher returns relative to capital at risk. American vs European Style Options Most stocks and ETF’s are American style options. This means that if the buyer of an option chooses to exercise or assign their rights they may do so at any time prior to expiration. Indexes such as SPX, NDX, and RUT are European style options. This means that any exercise or assignment may only occur at expiration. Trading spreads on European style options, can alleviate the concern of early exercise/assignment. If both legs are ITM, they can only be exercised or assigned at expiration, which allows flexibility to continue to hold the position rather than take action to avoid assignment/exercise as would be suggested on American style options. Opening a new Put Debit Vertical Spread The following steps should be referred to when opening a new put debit vertical spread position: 1. Review the technical indicators on your chart and confirm there is a consensus between multiple indicators pointing to a declining bias. 2. Select an expiration that is one to three months out. One month is generally the minimum time to expiration you want to use. Building time into the position is advised in case it needs to be managed. The sweet spot for opening new positions is two months to expiration. 3. BTO the at-the-money (ATM) put strike. BTO the strike that is closest to the money. When the stock/index is trading between strikes, BTO the first strike higher than the current price of the stock. 4. STO the strike that is 10 points further out-of-the-money (OTM). With a put spread, further OTM means a lower strike. BTO ATM and STO 10 points further OTM will create a debit. Generally, when properly constructed, the debit will be in the range of $4.00 - $6.00. 5. When placing the order, always use a Limit order. A limit order specifies to the market the amount of the debit you will accept. A limit order will be filled at the specified limit or lower. Market orders should not be used. 6. With some stocks and indexes, the difference between the bid and ask is quite large. The broker will usually give you a quote called the “Mark”. This is the midpoint between the bid and ask. It is the price you should start with when submitting your limit debit order. 7. Calculate the risk of the position. Cost basis of position is risk. So a position with a debit of $4.50 would have a risk of $4.50. 8. Use the risk number to determine the number of contracts to open. Risk x 100 = the investment required for each contract. With $4.50 of risk and one contract, the total investment would be $450 ($4.50 x (1 contract x 100 shares per contract)). 9. Once you know the total investment required per contract, you can decide how many contracts to trade based on the size of your portfolio. Generally, allocating 5% of the total portfolio to each trade is good risk management. Smaller account sizes may require a higher investment per trade but should not exceed 10%. 10. After the trade has been opened, place a Good-til-Canceled (GTC) order to close the position for a $1.00 profit. A GTC order will stay active until market conditions are such that the position can be closed for a $1.00 profit. GTC orders execute automatically and do not require you to be in front of your computer to take advantage of the profit opportunity.
SP:SPXEducation
by NewCycleTrading
9