GBPUSD: Potential Corrective Structure or Technical reboundFrom a technical point of view, FX:GBPUSD pair is approaching a very important support area in short term, if from here some Reversal Pattern will form on intraday chart, it is possible to try to take a long position. If the pair will not form a corrective structure, at least a technical bounce should appear. Be careful, the trend is bearish, do not take a position if a clear signal (Pattern) does not appear, follow us.
Trade with care
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Demand Zone
Market Stands Firm on Support!📊 Weekly Chart: Long shadow at support, prior resistance.
📈 Daily Chart: ABCD pattern, respecting support.
🕓 Four Hour Chart: Counter-trend trade possibility.
⏳ One Hour Chart: Bullish bat pattern, wait for confirmation.
🌟 Weekly Chart Insight:
- Market stands still in buy zone.
- Different from Eurodollar.
📊 Daily Chart:
- ABCD pattern, support respected.
- Previous trade resulted in 219 pips gain.
💡 Trading Opportunities:
- Confirmation of support for a buy.
- Counter-trend trade in the sell zone.
🦇 One Hour Chart:
- Bullish bat pattern.
- Wait for consolidation or double bottom.
- Use RSI Divergence for confirmation.
Heating oil and gasoline supply remain tightOil demand, driven by China is an area of strength, but a slowing Chinese economy could weaken this. However, OPEC’s resolve to keep markets tight is strong. Petroleum product markets – heating oil and gasoline – are especially tight with inventory significantly below normal and prices have hit ‘golden crosses’ : technical analyst parlance for bullish conditions. Positioning in heating oil futures is a standard deviation above 5-year average after rising by 49% last month1. A combination of rising longs and contracting shorts drove the trend amid a 17% rally in heating oil in the past month1.
Heating oil inventory has fallen 15% and inventory is now than a standard deviation below 5-year average2. While not as steep as last year, the 0.8% positive roll yield on heating oil futures marks a break from the pre-2022 historic trend of contango in August3. At 8.6%, the positive front month roll yield on gasoline futures appears larger than seasonally normal (although a positive front month roll is expected at this time of the year)3.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), world oil demand is scaling record highs, boosted by strong summer air travel, increased oil use in power generation and surging Chinese petrochemical activity. Global oil demand is set to expand by 2.2 mb/d to 102.2 mb/d in 2023, with China accounting for more than 70% of growth. With the post-pandemic rebound running out of steam, and as lacklustre economic conditions, tighter efficiency standards and new electric vehicles weigh on use, growth is forecast to slow to 1 mb/d in 2024. Russian oil exports held steady at around 7.3 mb/d in July, as a 200 kb/d decline in crude oil loadings was offset by higher product flows. Crude exports to China and India eased month on month but accounted for 80% of Russian shipments.
Global observed oil inventories declined by 17.3 mb in June, led by the OECD. Non-OECD stocks and oil on water were largely unchanged. OECD industry stocks fell by 14.7 mb, in line with the seasonal trend, to 2,787 mb. Industry stocks were 115.4 mb below the five-year average, with product inventories particularly tight. Preliminary data observed by the IEA suggest global inventories drew further in July and August.
Refiners are struggling to keep up with demand growth, as the shift to new feedstocks, outages and high temperatures have forced many operators to run at reduced rates. Tight gasoline and diesel markets have pushed margins to six-month highs. Heating oil (Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel) prices rose 17% in the past month, reflecting this tightness.
OPEC+’s aggressive cuts are continuing to tighten the oil market. Saudi Arabia’s voluntary supply cuts have helped oil curves remain in backwardation.
Source:
1 Commodity Futures Trading Commission as of 15 August 2023
2 change in inventory over the past 3 months, United States Department of Agriculture as of 15 August 2023
3 Calculated as difference between front month and second month futures prices as of 15 August 2023
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LUV Weekly Chart Showing Heavy DemandSouthwest Airlines has been going through some turbulence with recent flight rearrangement issues, but for the most part has smoothened out all issues regarding flights. Air Travel Demand is still thriving and growing exponentially, respectively.
Southwest is a leader among a few others in Airline Stocks as they have High-Quality Management & Great Financial Strategy (e.g. Fuel hedging)
The stock has performed quite poorly since its post-COVID peak of $65 and has retreated nearly 50% while remaining a sound financial base. Southwest has been hovering around this major demand zone at the $30 area. As highlighted in green, this demand zone has repeatedly pushed LUV back up higher, and on this weekly chart, we can see a triple bottom starting to push back higher from this $31 level.
This weekly chart prevails a strong Risk/Reward towards Southwest as a swing-trade or LT investment.
Southwest has remained a fundamentally strong & sound company as they are the first American Airline Co. to reinstate their dividend. EPS projections are very optimistic for the next several years as demand increases & costs decrease. It would also be likely to see a rotation into the travel / Airlines sector as it has been quite low and non-volatile thru the past half year. Recent PT cuts lead me to believe Funds could be loading up
Conclusion: LONG NYSE:LUV through commons
Option Play: Credit-Spread : Jan 19, '24 Puts $30-$27.5p
FORD $F | Longer Term Demand Zone Ford, a Popular American AutoMaker has been having a struggling stock performance since its 2021 rally. This stock has continued to rally upwards and melt back down towards this $11-$12 area. What we are witnessing now is a retest of these same levels that previously sent the stock back upwards with volume.
I am keeping my eye on Ford at these levels as historically this stock bounces from this demand zone. This demand zone is heavy, as highlighted in green, and will also be having support from a diagonal trendline around the $11.40 level helping support prices of $F.
With this large area for support considering the Demand Zone & the diagonal trendline retest, I believe that this area of price levels gives a solid Risk/Reward Entry on a Long Position on $F.
A break below this trendline would be a good exit point, as the stock could probably dump underneath heavily. With this Risk/Reward entry point, a swing position can be attractive or a LT entry. I am just pointing out these levels, as I think it can be an interesting area to watch the stock react to, and thought I'd share!
Happy Trading!
EURCHF - BEARISH MOVE📉Hello Traders👋🏻
Yesterday, The EURCHF Price Reached The Support Level (0.96771 - 0.96438)
Currently, This Key Level is Broken (Support Becomes New Resistance Level)🔥
So, I Expect a Bearish Move📉
i'm waiting for a retest...
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TARGET: 0.95185🎯
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if you agreed with this IDEA, please leave a LIKE, SUBSCRIBE or COMMENT!
Three scenarios | Two good, One badDaily Chart
Now, BINANCE:OPUSDT is on ascending trend line acts the support in this situation.
I figure out 3 scenarios for OP now:
Number 1. Price will bounce back and going up resistance zones at 1.83
Number 2. Price will break down support and touch Hidden Support around 1.29 then consolidation phase long time before test resistance at 1.83
Number 3. Price down to 1.14 and sideway long time
So, wait and see what happen
I'll update
USDCHF: Just short-term traders should trade it! Regarding our observations, currently there are absolutely more buyers in the market.
After breaking 0.8850 there is good place to long the pair.
Breaking ascending the trend-line down and retrace to top of the bearish channel make good chance for a short trade.
breaking down 0.8742 could be anoother opportunity for shorting the pair.
Key day tomorrowPrice reacted to the H4 demand but sellers came into play again very strong from the M15 level of the previous post. The expectation was for a reaction but not for a reversal and another break of structure. The only reason for price to do this, is to grab more liquidity and react to the bottom of the 1D/H4 demand, where the M15 level is. That's exactly what I'm expecting to see tomorrow.
If not, there's always the possibility that price will break the H4 swing structure and continue down. This would be an important reversal and a show of strength from the USD. If that happens, next week shorts will be in play but for now I don't have enough evidence.
How low will Gold go???Fibonacci extension tool is showing a 1.41 level inside of a 4 hr demand zone. We also have a measured move on the previous down leg. I suggest to watch this level and not just buy it at this level. Let's see if we get a reaction off the level that we can work with and THEN go through our process to take the trade long.
ContinuationThis is a continuation from my previous idea. If you haven't, please go read it so you understand my reasons for being bullish.
Price is now rejecting from M15 supply at the top of the range but my expectation is that it will break above it and reach the next level of supply tomorrow. This will make the M15 structure bullish and it increases the chance for a continuation towards the H4/1D weak high.
Daily swing demand1D -> Even tough price has been bearish for the last couple of weeks and today had an impulsive move down, to me this is still just a pb and I'm expecting price to react to the current daily demand.
H4 -> Price is also coming very close to H4 demand, it's not my favourite zone but it's still valid, considering it was responsible for an impulsive reaction.
M15 -> There's a demand zone at the bottom of the H4. I'll either take a position from there without confirmation, or I'll wait for a reaction at the top of the zone.
Chart vs. HeadlinesLet's debunk some headlines like "The Dollar is Bearish!" and dig into the real chart dynamics. On the weekly chart, a bullish trend is evident, despite a retracement that might seem bearish. Always consider the bigger picture. The recent retracement is a mere blip compared to the overall uptrend.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch 🔍
Zoom out and observe the retest happening on the previous high. Keep a close eye on whether the market breaches 145.24. The next crucial level to watch is 152.02. Chart analysis trumps online articles. Don't just read, define your levels strategically.
💡 Daily Chart Insights 💡
Approaching the previous high on the daily chart, counter-trend traders might eye shorting opportunities. However, wait for candlestick confirmation before executing. Personally, I see a breakout trading opportunity, not an aggressive short.
📊 Four Hour Chart Dynamics 📊
New highs surpassing previous structures on the four-hour chart indicate the bullish trend persists. This trend isn't over. One hour chart mirrors this pattern—a break of prior resistance.
📚 Mastering Market Analysis 📚
If you're passionate about analyzing markets like I am, employing clear rules for buying and selling levels is vital. No guessing games. Scan the QR code for our community channel. Engage with like-minded individuals and refine your skills.
💼 Crafting Trading Strategies 💼
Returning to the weekly chart, counter-traders might spot a shorting setup at 149.28 for a Fib-3 Bat setup. On the daily chart, a crab pattern at 150.39 forms, with a Bat pattern completion at 149.16.
⚙️ Shorting Opportunities ⚙️
For those inclined towards shorting, the ABCD pattern on the four-hour chart sets a stage at 147.80. My focus? Buying opportunities. A pullback to 144.02 holds potential for a buying window.
🔎 Immediate Insights 🔎
On the one-hour chart, a closer level of interest stands at 144.46—a promising buying opportunity within the buy zone.
USD CAD - Demand in control, outlook to 1.40+G'day,
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily)
Orange = Daily
Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual.
Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed.
Daily chart
Weekly Chart
Monthly
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Professional analyst with 7+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Focus on investing for long term positional moves
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
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LVPA MMXXIII
USDCAD potential long setup
I've spotted a demand zone for USDCAD on a H1 time frame chart. The demand level range is between 1.33687-1.33638 (very narrow, so pay attention to the spread). If the price retraces to this zone, I'll be considering a long position. My target is set at 1.3384, with a potential for a 2.9 R reward.
I plan to exit the trade if there's a 1 hour candle closing below the demand zone