Macro Monday 56~Venezuela - Democracy Beacons Economic Reform Macro Monday 56
Venezuela - Democracy Beacons Economic Reform
As one of the core members of OPEC, Venezuela holds the distinction of having the largest oil reserves in the world with over 304 billion barrels beneath its surface. This is marginally more than the Saudi Arabia oil reserves.
If you ever wondered where the largest oil reserves in the whole world where, they are located on the Orinoco Oil Belt in Central Venezuela.
Unfortunately Venezuela has suffered from political and economic factors that hasn’t allowed the country and its people to benefit from this large natural resource. A national election on the 28th July 2024 has the potential to change everything and allow Venezuelans to form a democratic government. This has the promise of leading the country into a new positive social and economic epoch.
Venezuela’s oil production plummeted by c.75% over the past ten years, largely due to political missteps. The current administrations illegal expropriations of foreign oil and gas assets were a major red flag for potential investors. Additionally, Venezuela’s poor governance, mismanagement, and U.S. sanctions have contributed to a drastic decline in oil output. In September 2023, Venezuela produced only 735,000 barrels per day, making it the 10th-largest producer in OPEC despite it being the largest global oil reserve. The situation highlights the some challenges faced by petrostates that heavily rely on oil exports and their governance over it.
Path to Democracy calls for International Support
Venezuela stands at a critical juncture, with the potential for a historic return to democracy by way of national election on 28th July 2024.
The opposition has rallied behind a leading candidate, Edmundo González of the Democratic Unity Platform (PUD) for the upcoming national election. He has taken the place of the former disqualified Maria Corina Machado (unfairly ousted by the incumbent). The incumbent President Nicolás Maduro remains a significant obstacle and still gains support from a Chavista Base.
The Chavista Base refers to the loyal supporters of Chavismo, a left-wing populist political ideology associated with the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. These supporters are committed to strong socialist ideas, programs, and government style that characterized Chávez’s rule from 1999 to 2013. Despite international pressure, sanctions and disapproval, this group remains fiercely loyal to the Chavista movement and its successor, President Nicolás Maduro. The opposition Edmundo González, has been leading the polls by over 20 - 40 points and thus the people of Venezuela are calling out for change having suffered under the socialist regime.
Maduro's regime has arguably eroded democracy and has been the cause of significant economic pitfalls, and social unrest. To support Venezuelans’ fight for democracy, the United States may offer a legal off-ramp for Maduro and his allies, ensuring they won’t face prosecution if they recognize electoral defeat. This approach has worked in other countries like South Africa and Chile, after which both countries could move forward constructively and relatively peacefully. This approach could allow for a peaceful transition to democracy in Venezuela. A democratic Venezuela would benefit U.S. foreign policy, limit migration to the U.S, and reduce the influence of Russia and China in the South Americas via pacts like the BRICS. Previous efforts to achieve the off-ramp approach in Venezuela have failed, however the opposition leader González is ahead in most polls and the election is days away. With some international pressure/support, this could be a major moment for Venezuela, opening up the country and its resources to operate under a free market, allowing for competitive growth, innovation freedom, consumer sovereignty and free flowing export economy.
Exports
Venezuela is historically highly dependent on its petroleum oil exports. Crude oil, in particular, has been the primary driver of its export revenue. In recent years, Venezuela’s top exports include:
1. Mineral fuels including oil: This category represents 26.1% of total exports.
2. Iron and steel: Comprising 21% of exports.
3. Organic chemicals: Accounting for 9.9% of exports.
4. Aluminum: Representing 8.4% of exports.
5. Fish: Contributing 7.5% to export value.
These products collectively account for 88.1% of Venezuela’s global shipments. Notably, mineral fuels (especially crude oil) have experienced significant growth in recent years. China, Turkey, Spain, the U.S., and Brazil are among Venezuela’s main export partners.
Blooming Tourism Sector
In 2023 Venezuela experienced a remarkable resurgence in international tourism. The country welcomed 1.25 million foreign visitors, marking a 90% increase compared to the previous year when 656,000 people arrived. While specific revenue figures for 2023 are not readily available, this surge in tourist arrivals indicates a positive trend for the Venezuelan tourism sector.
I thought id mention just just a few attractions:
1.Angel Falls: Located in Canaima National Park, Angel Falls is the highest waterfall in the world, dropping 979 meters. Best seen during the rainy season (May to November) when water flow is abundant.
2.Los Roques Archipelago: This chain of islands, 160 kilometres north of the central coast, offers sun-drenched beaches, turquoise waters, and coral reefs. It’s a paradise for beach lovers and nature enthusiasts.
The Chart
Caracas Stock Exchange- BME:IBC
Summary
I cannot recommend taking an entry on the above chart and regardless, it would be incredibly difficult to do so with sanctions in place and the political turmoil that is yet to be resolved. However, a major date is approaching for the national election this coming Sunday 28th July 2024 , and it could be the beginning of a monumental positive shift for the future of Venezuela’s economy. We can only watch from afar and not forget that this country boasts thee largest oil reserves in the world, has a blooming tourism scene with some of the most unique tourist attractions, and a varied export economy. Somewhere in the future there will likely be great opportunity in Venezuela, however for the moment we await the shifting winds of democracy to catch the Venezuelan sails. Lets see what happens this Sunday.
PUKA
Democracy
SHIB: a token, a dog, or an ENIGMA?(!)as i was attempting to predict the future of our lovable currency unit represented by another charismatic cartoon dog posing on the face of an intangible coin, i realized this chart in particular was very difficult to interpret. while fibonacciatering, i stared at it for quite some time before the answers fell right into place. as they did, i created the image you see above.
a completely revolutionary concept, SHIB designed this chart to be used as a crypto-obstacle-course-board-game-video-game...thing . you begin this quest in the lower left hand corner, where you are being accosted by Spanish Blue Man Group. from Spain. they have been playing basketball for weeks and they all have to go to bathroom reeeeal bad. they desperately repeat that one question that every conscious human can ask in Spanish: "¿dónde está el baño?" - which is perfectly fine, but you soon realize that you have never had to answer the question.
bolting around the maze indiscriminately, you try to find a way to escape. designed as a labyrinth, you see a single yellow umbrella by the wall. Ted? no. delighted, someone in Spanish Blue Man Group exclaims, "¡Maria Poppins!", and you immediately know what you have to do.
you land softly on a large oyster cracker on the other side of the wall and toss the umbrella aside. once again you hear the sound of a bouncing basketball coming to rest on the floor. astonished, you try not to look bewildered as you lock eyes with all three members of Spanish Blue Woman Group.
they also have to pee.
you do not know how to properly navigate them to the bathroom. you realize you never will.
in the distance you see another yellow umbrella, and you immediately act extremely casual . you put out an overwhelming vibe of, "this is part of a normal day for me", with heavy cool smiles and hyper approval-granting head tilts as you try to slip past the lead PVC piper to get to the umbrella. they sense your desperation, and although you've showed them the most impactful, jarring display of "extremely casual, everything's blasting with normality", you, too, realize that none of you would ever forget quite how casual you were in that moment. you reach for the basketball and kick the holy crap out of it, exploding it. you can no longer hear. using the distraction to make your escape. you land on an oversized oyster cracker. the oyster cracker restores your hearing." what?! ", you think to yourself. you didn't have to. because you can hear again. remember the oyster cracker restored your hearing . so you can hear yourself say things again. let's talk about this for a lot longer .
"not agaaaaaaainnnnnnn!!" you say. then you say it again. the irony of your statement hits you like a glove. you begin to play on words. "esto es divertido", you think. you hope you don't ramp it up and start to make things rhyme. it is instantly obvious to you that you are now in the midst of Spanish Blue Sexy College Co-ed Group. they have just dropped their basketball. you begin to party. they begin to party. you are surrounded by hot, sensual phones, and they are all making 1-900 calls. toilet paper streamers are flying through the air. drums are beaten with thick wooden rods, their vibrating skins sending thick streams of hard liquor flying up into the air. you hover your head over the drums and let liquor splash all over your face. it is burning the holy shit out of your eyes. you like it. you don't care if you become blind. you keep repeating "mmmmmmmm", uncontrollably. you hear voices chanting to the rhythm of the drums in exotic tongues. somebody lights a match, and your face ignites. you have never felt anything more enjoyable in your life. as you dance around the room, you begin to take note of what Spanish Blue Sexy College Co-ed Group is calling out over, and over, and over again. suddenly, you feel an almost uncontrollable feeling of nausea as your brain uses pure anxiety to convey the only words you're certain they know you understand: " ¿dónde está el baño? ¿dónde está el baño? "
suddenly somehow your face is no longer burning, you are umbrella-ing your way down gently onto another oyster cracker, and you think you hear the word "honkey" from a muffled distance. this game was getting long enough already, so it was really good this all suddenly happened so efficiently, and without any permanent damage done to anything at all. in fact, you have now entered the prime of your life, and have become wealthy.
a gigantic magnet lifts you off of your oyster cracker because somehow you have become magnetic. it lowers you onto another oyster cracker atop an airplane that is mounted upon a rocket ship. it blasts you off to YouTube Infinity Stadium 1.005ABCD. you play four rounds of Enormous Paper, Rock, Scissors. you never lose. you never even have to breathe. but you do breathe after you win the fourth round, and you say, "don't hold your breath..." reeeeal cooool -like, and you are in slow-motion. you realize that what you have just said only mildly makes sense to say in that situation. you will probably think of something way better in the shower tomorrow. you like that.
you bring your trophy, Maxwell's Actual Silver Hammer with you. it is actual. literally. even though it's way heavier than you ever conceived anything could ever be, it doesn't bother you that you are becoming exhausted and have to leave it somewhere. Lumiere and Cogsworth are waiting for you, ready to welcome you to the upper right hand corner, where you will stay for a really long time. you thought there would be a dog here instead. you never see a dog there.
anyhoo, that's my prediction for days 25 and 26, i'm assuming November. and for hours of the clock: 18 o'clock, 06 o'clock, 12 o'clock, 18 o'clock...B, 06 o'clock B, and another 12B. there are other numbers, and oh yeah there was a magical bridge where you have to sing Shooby Taylor through a bullhorn and it will appear and you can get over those other lines.
just goes to show you!
