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A New President's Potential Impact on Oil Prices1. Introduction The U.S. presidential election in 2024 is set to bring new leadership, with a new president guaranteed to take office. As history has shown, political transitions often have a profound effect on financial markets, and crude oil is no exception. Traders, investors and hedgers are now asking the critical question: how will WTI Crude Oil futures react to this change in leadership? While there is much speculation about how a Democrat versus a Republican might shape oil policy, data-driven insights provide a more concrete outlook. Using a machine learning model based on key U.S. economic indicators, we’ve identified potential movements in crude oil prices, spanning short, medium, and long-term timeframes. 2. Key Machine Learning Predictions for Crude Oil Prices Short-Term (1 Week to 1 Month): Based on the machine learning model, the immediate market reaction within the first week following the election is expected to be minimal, with predicted price changes below 2% for both a Republican and Democratic win. The one-month outlook also suggests additional opportunity. Medium-Term (1 Quarter to 1 Year): The model shows a significant divergence in crude oil prices over the medium term, with a potential sharp upward movement one year after the election. Regardless of which party claims the presidency, WTI crude oil prices could potentially rise by over 40%. This is in line with historical trends where significant price shifts occurred one year post-election, driven by economic recovery, fiscal policies, and broader market sentiment. Long-Term (4 Years): Over the course of the full four-year presidential term, the model predicts more moderate growth, averaging around 15%. The data suggests that, while short-term market movements may seem reactive, the long-term outlook is more balanced and less influenced by the winning party. Instead, economic conditions, such as interest rates and industrial activity, will have a more sustained impact on crude oil prices. 3. Feature Importance: The Drivers Behind Crude Oil Price Movements The machine learning model's analysis highlights that crude oil price movements, especially one year after the election, are primarily driven by economic indicators, rather than the political party in power. Below are the top features influencing crude oil prices: Top Economic Indicators Influencing Crude Oil: Fed Funds Rate: The most significant driver of crude oil prices, as interest rate policies affect everything from borrowing costs to overall economic growth. Changes in the Fed Funds Rate can signal shifts in economic activity that directly impact oil demand apart from the US Dollar itself. Labor Force Participation Rate: A critical indicator of economic health, a higher participation rate suggests a stronger labor market, which supports increased industrial activity and energy consumption, including crude oil. Producer Price Index (PPI): The PPI reflects inflation at the producer level, impacting the cost of goods and services, including oil-related industries. Consumer Sentiment Index: A measure of the general public's outlook on the economy, which indirectly influences energy demand as consumer confidence affects spending patterns. Unit Labor Costs: An increase in labor costs can signal inflationary pressures, which could lead to changes in oil prices as businesses pass on higher costs to consumers. This study exclusively uses U.S. economic data, excluding oil-related fundamentals such as OPEC+ supply and demand information, in order to focus on the election’s direct impact through domestic economic channels. Minimal Influence of Political Party on Price Movements: Interestingly, the machine learning model suggests that the political party of the newly elected president has a relatively low impact on crude oil prices. The performance of WTI crude oil appears to be more closely tied to macroeconomic factors, such as employment data and inflation, than the specific party in power. These findings emphasize the importance of focusing on economic fundamentals when analyzing crude oil price movements for longer term exposures, rather than solely relying on political outcomes. 4. Historical Analysis of Crude Oil Price Reactions to U.S. Elections Looking back over the last two decades, the performance of crude oil post-election has varied, depending on global conditions and the economic policies of the newly elected president. Notable Historical Movements: George W. Bush (Republican): In his 2000 election, crude oil dropped nearly 50% within a year, reflecting the broader economic fallout from the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the events of 9/11. In contrast, his 2004 re-election saw oil prices climb 21.5% within a year, driven by the Iraq War and increasing global demand for energy. Barack Obama (Democratic): After his 2008 election, crude oil prices surged by 33.8% within one year, partly due to economic recovery efforts following the global financial crisis. His 2012 re-election saw more modest growth, with an 8.3% rise over the same period. Donald Trump (Republican): His election in 2016 coincided with a moderate 23.8% increase in crude oil prices over one year, as the U.S. ramped up energy production through fracking, contributing to global supply increases. Joe Biden (Democratic): Most recently, crude oil prices skyrocketed by over 100% in the year following Biden’s 2020 victory, driven by post-pandemic economic recovery and supply chain disruptions that affected global energy markets. 5. WTI Crude Oil Contracts: CL and MCL Explained When trading crude oil futures, the two most popular contracts offered by the CME Group are WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL) and Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL). Both contracts offer traders a way to speculate or hedge on the price movements of crude oil, but they differ in size, margin requirements, and ideal use cases. WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL): Price Fluctuations: The contract moves in increments of $0.01 per barrel, meaning a $10 change for one contract. Margin Requirements: As of recent estimates, the margin requirement for trading a CL contract is around $6,000, though this can fluctuate depending on market volatility. Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (MCL): Price Fluctuations: 10 times less. The contract moves in increments of $0.01 per barrel, meaning a $1 change for one contract. Margin Requirements: 10 times less, around $600 per contract. Practical Application: During periods of heightened market volatility—such as the lead-up to and aftermath of a U.S. presidential election—traders can use both CL and MCL contracts to navigate expected price fluctuations. Larger traders might use CL to hedge against or capitalize on significant price movements, while retail traders may prefer MCL for smaller, controlled exposure. 6. Conclusion As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, crude oil traders are watching closely for market signals. While political outcomes can cause short-term volatility, the machine learning model’s predictions emphasize that broader economic factors will drive crude oil prices more significantly over the medium and long term. Whether a Democrat or Republican wins, crude oil prices are expected to see a potential increase, particularly one year after the election. This surge, driven by factors such as interest rates, labor market health, and inflation, suggests that traders should focus on these economic indicators rather than placing too much weight on which party claims the presidency. 7. Risk Management Reminder Navigating market volatility, especially during a presidential election period, requires careful risk management. Crude oil traders, whether trading standard WTI Crude Oil futures (CL) or Micro WTI Crude Oil futures (MCL), should be mindful of the following strategies to mitigate potential risks: Use of Stop-Loss Orders: Setting predefined exit points, traders can avoid significant drawdowns if the market moves against their position. Leverage and Margin Control: Overexposure can lead to margin calls and forced liquidation of positions in volatile markets. Position Sizing: Adjusting position sizes according to risk tolerance is vital especially during uncertain periods like elections. Hedging Strategies: Traders might consider hedging their crude oil positions with other instruments, such as options or spreads, to protect against unexpected market moves. Monitoring Economic Indicators: Keeping a close watch on key U.S. economic data can provide valuable clues to future crude oil futures price movements. By using these risk management tools effectively, traders can better navigate the expected volatility surrounding the 2024 U.S. election and protect themselves from significant market swings. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
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NYMEX:CL1!Education
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USDebtCeilingCrisis.ComLet’s make some noise for the 11th hour party people. Bipartisan talks between US President Biden and House Republicans over the debt ceiling crisis have finally come to a resolution. Well, in theory at least since there is the small matter of Congress having to vote on it later this week. US lawmakers might balk at the idea that this is an 11th hour deal since the much touted ‘hard deadline’ of the 1st of June has now moved to the 5th of June. Any chances we could see that pushed forward by a few more days in the event of further brinkmanship during the Congressional vote on the deal? Make no mistake. Regardless of the real hard deadline before the US technically defaults on its public debt, this will have been an 11th hour deal. The thing with 11th hour deals whether they’re related to business, divorce settlements, ransom/hostage negotiations or drug deals is that they tend to be equally bad for both parties but at least everyone walks away equally disappointed. A deal as critical as the one needed to tackle the debt ceiling crisis should have been done and dusted well before this game of chicken ended in both parties swerving just before the head on collision. The US debt ceiling issue is a bubble. The limit has been lifted 78 times since 1960 and is quite the magician’s trick. Raising the limit each time a ceiling is reached and then kicking the issue into the long grass until the next time negotiations need to take place is dangerous enough but the way in which this current deal has been tentatively reached has created micro tears in this bubble and only time will tell if the bubble bursts at some point in the not- too-distant future. Even a smooth run through Congress later this week will be short-term relief for markets as the possibility of a crash depends on the extent of any liquidity leaving the system and where exactly that liquidity drain comes from as soon as the US Treasury turns on the T-bill tap to full blast after a confirmed deal. These are exciting times for FX traders as we trade the bull runs, the bear runs and the crashes. Keep yourself educated and informed at all times. And remember that whenever you go to the market, be careful out there. BluetonaFX
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by BluetonaFX
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SAIC approaching first buy levelHere's another one that's close to triggering my buy alert today. SAIC is a government technology contractor and should fare well under a Democrat administration. It pays a nearly 2% dividend, and I estimate forward P/E at 12-13 and forward P/S at about .8. That's an objectively attractive valuation and also leaves about 16% upside to SAIC's median multiple of the last 4 years. Analysts are a little negative on SAIC, with a 4.3/10 rating, but open interest is highly bullish, with a put/call ratio at about 0.25. Upside to the average analyst price target is over 20%. SAIC is approaching strong support from both a one-year trend line and the 200-day exponential moving average.
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"Blue Wave" A Black Swan Event? Stock Market Drop!Wild day on Wall Street. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the Dow Jones all did finish lower, but WELL off the lows. Last week, I mentioned how this week would be big with the Georgia (GA) Senate run off and then the December 6th Electoral College vote. The GA Senate run is the big one. If the Democrat Candidates win both seats tomorrow, the Senate is split 50-50 between the Democrats and the Republicans, but the Vice President gets the determining vote, and since that person is a Democrat, the Democrats technically take the Senate. This means that they can pass the programs that they want. The current set up, with a Democratic President and a Republicans controlled Senate is the Goldilocks zone. Balance and checks remain so the Democrats cannot pass large programs. "Strikingly, while online betting markets priced in a relatively modest 25-30% probability of a blue sweep (i.e., Democrats winning both GA runoffs tomorrow), the Predictit odds for a "blue wave" have soared in the past few days, surging just shy of 50%." In fact, we went slightly above 50% today. To me, this would meet the definition of a Black Swan Event. Something the market is NOT pricing in. So there is a possibility we drift lower given the outcome tomorrow (perhaps market pricing this in NOW). Just want to be clear: this is not telling us the Dems win the Senate tomorrow, it is just a possibility that the markets are fearing and reacting to. If the Republicans maintain the Senate, markets will continue their uptrend as we remain in the Goldilocks zone. If we get the Dem outcome, we can continue a move lower. The zones I would look at would be on the Daily chart. For the S&P, there is a possibility we are forming a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The 3640 is a major support zone that I am watching if price drops lower. One can make a case there is a flip zone at 3700, and the daily close is indeed closing back above. If we do hit 3640, expect a bounce and then our right shoulder eventually breaking below 3640. That would be my short trigger. I would target 3530, and then 3400 below that. BUT you all know my outlook on the monetary and fiscal side. Cheap and easy money is here to stay. It cannot stop and it will not stop. So yes, there is a chance the S&P 500 and other US Stock Markets drop on the "Blue Wave", but I do think the dip eventually gets bid up. The Federal Reserve is not stopping its asset purchasing program anytime soon. Interest Rates will be suppressed, and stock markets will continue to be the only place to go for yield. A Blue Wave means even MORE money will be spent. Democrats are generally big spenders. Stock markets continue to be the only place to go for real yield. You all know my thoughts on Gold, Silver and Cryptocurrency. This is where you want to be to preserve purchasing power! Expect a highly volatile week. At the end of the week, I would not be surprised to see the tone change. What started as a red week on wall street, turns to be a positive week for wall street. I welcome this relief rally, and further pressure if it plays out. Profits must be taken and the markets need to give back some!
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#WMT - 4H - CHRISMAS GIFT - STIMULUS DEAL. Perfectly tidy midterm uptrend since the beginning of July. One-touch on October 30th, and here we go again to test that uptrend strength. But this time, we've got a 0.236 Fibonacci support acting as a safety net. Also, we can observe a rebound on that RSI's oversold lower band (30). This Sunday, Republican and Democratic party leaders announced that a deal had been reached for a new stimulus check. There are enough votes for a majority approval this Monday on congress. This policy will impact positively on all retail companies such as Walmart. Monday's pre-market will discount this political victory and from the beginning of the session, we'll have a nice bullish day. Opening position: USD 145.95. Stop loss: USD 144 (-1.30%) First price Target: USD 153 (+5%) Risk-Reward ratio: +3.91 (GOLD futures are already reacting positively on Sunday's night)
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