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Depression

The U.S. Markets are likely to have one last push before....The U.S. markets have been inflated to the point of near exhaustion, propped up by nothing more than a money printer that goes brrr... brrrr... brrrrrrrrrrr. However, this seemingly never-ending run is coming to an end. Trump will most likely be elected president again. His first term (45) and his second term (47) will likely mark the greatest market crash of all time—the end of the everything bubble! 4 + 5 = 9; 4 + 7 = 11; 9 + 11 = 20. They will likely prop the market up until his administration takes power, then... Shorting these markets will be the opportunity of a lifetime! Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
SP:SPX
by MetaShackle
Mortgage Delinquencies About to Skyrocket"Financial Advisors" tend to be clueless about the overall health of the market and the economy. The "advisor" profession is laced with toxic narratives about "your goals" and "focusing on the long term" and "staying invested". They're clueless as to what is going on. As the recession sets in and the market collapses, we will see mortgage delinquencies soar. Remain patient, refrain from buying ANYTHING with a debt component (ie homes / cars). We will soon see a credit freeze, as banks and lenders dump their assets and borrowers fail to meet their loan covenants. This is the real deal, folks. Stay low and move fast!
FRED:DRSFRMACBSLong
by ChiefMacro
Oil Collapse | WTICOUSD About to Give it Up!I called the oil top in June 2022 and I have been building / holding a massive leveraged short position ever since then. This market will take YEARS to recover, after the current selloff is complete. I will continue to cover the devastation, along the way. Don't listen to the media - they are lost. Question your "advisors" - they are going to encourage you to "stay invested", it's what they do. Ultimately, the decision to ride out this market will cost you dearly. If you are able, GET OUT OF THE MARKETS. There is nowhere to hide!
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by ChiefMacro
2
S&P 500 ($SPY) COLLAPSE | Recession Alert!!Behold, devastation just up ahead. $2500 is probable in the S&P. Retirements are about to be wiped out. As a friendly reminder, the "401K is free money" narrative is going to evaporate. The media will soon be out in full force talking about: "stay the course" "remember your goals" "stay invested" "LFG" "buy the dip" So foolish. If you are trapped in a retirement fund (401K), the best thing you can do right now is get defensive. Sell ALL "growth stocks" and shift all of your wealth into cash and / or bonds. Be careful out there, everyone! Something major is happening on a global scale!
TVC:SPXShort
by ChiefMacro
9
DXY 1W Forecast until March 2025Consolidation below 106 will last until October 2024. Breakout will happen in October peaking at 111-112 followed by a retest (mid November 2024 - January 2025). Further upward movement + correction will happen in January-March 2025 between the top of 113-114 and the bottom of 105-ish. Consecutive HH and HL will be followed by rapid increase in pace of changes: time will shrink and levels will expand. This will mark the start of hard times of Greatest Depression in March 2025 sending all markets down and making USD the king.
INDEX:DXY
by discarding
City Lodge Symmetrical Triangle getting closer to the breakoutWhich way? Symmetrical Triangles are generally known as Continuation patterns. This means, when the price breaks out it normally moves in the trend of the prior direction... However, the trend has been sideways before this. It's been in the Twilight Zone for over a year. And it gets worse. When the price oscillates up and down in between the 200MA - You know it's in complete indecision. Many lessons to learn from this chart and this market. Many technical analysis tips you can add to your acumen and arsenal. And as City Lodge is in the Hospitality sector, things haven't gone up since Covid... The prices have become more expensive. The seasonal pricing are vastly different and most people just don't have the money like they used to. It's what I call the slight depression. The rich are getting ridiculously richer and the poor are struggling to even afford Lotto tickets. And this will get worse and worse. It's time to think above and beyond the system and mentality of the sheeple. And break away. So there is not much we can do with CLH other than wait for a break up. But if it breaks down, we can only watch it fall further. My two targets are in place and my humility is intact because I have NO idea which direction it wants to break.
JSE:CLH
by Timonrosso
USCCI - Consumer Confidence Index - Recession is HereThe US Consumer Confidence Index (USCCI) does not look so good. Consumers (normal people) are feeling anxious about their future, and they have good reasons for that. The Bull Market did not last long after the Covid Pandemic and people don't feel optimistic about their future spending or wealth. If you don't know what the CCI is, no worries, I will briefly explain, so that a 12 year old will know. A very well-known university in Michigan started doing some surveys a long time ago. They were asking people how they feel about their future, about their spending confidence, etc. Basically, you can also ask yourself: Can you afford a new car now? Are you making more money now then you were 2 years ago? Do you have financial stability? How do you feel about that? Are you thinking of moving into a new, nicer home? For me it's a NO for most questions above. Not sure about you... Now, if I may continue, I will tell you this: people are scared. In fact, Covid shocked the world as we know it. We got used to being bullied by the higher, running forces in the world. Anyway, there are many factors for which Consumers are pessimistic at these times: - War & Tensions: Ukraine vs. Russia - Inflation Spike - Energy Crisis - Federal Reserve (FED) Interest Rate Hike - Surging Prices - Bear Market Fears - Recession Talks Remember this: WINTER IS COMING! No joke, many will suffer. The media plays a major role with inflicting sentiments in your mind. As for me, I'm more of a technical guy, so I go with what my technical analysis tells me. Until now I mentioned my personal fundamental analysis take. I'm not optimistic about the markets. The FED messed it all up. They overreacted with that Quantitative Easing (QE). Artificial (fake & printed) money was injected, and of course it lost its value. Because of that, Inflation skyrocketed, and of course they're surprised. NO! It's the oldest trick in the book. They are controlling the global economy. It's actually them who are causing inflation or stagflation, and also them who are switching bullish and bearish gears. But enough about that. I'm gonna' switch to the Technical Side. I just wanted to get that off my chest. LOL So, I'm an Elliottician. That means I trade by using the Elliott Wave Theory. It proven to me over the years that it works. The Market's price movements are simply suman beings buy & sell emotions, as a herd. Yeah, they're all sheep, and most indicators are based those herd emotions. So, on this USCCI chart, which is coming from 1953, I'm labeling my Elliott Wave Count. What I see is a Triple Three Complex Correction, in a very BIG degree. TradingView calls it: Elliott Triple Combo Wave (WXYXZ). Based on that Wave Count, I am suspecting more down-side to this chart. In a nutshell, I'm anticipating a RECESSION. How big it will be and how long it will last, that depends. For what I know, the Bear Market has already started for Indices globally. My VIX (Volatility Index) idea backs this up. Short and simple: the USCCI would tag the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of Wave A (white). That's a point of interest for bulls, because it reflects the Golden Ratio. If it breaches and goes lower than that, then it's not just a Recession anymore, it's gonna' be more like a Depression. 1929 all over again. Funny how these Cycles come into play... My chart has labels and infographic stuff. Write a comment if you want, give a like if you give a :poop: :D Good luck!
ECONOMICS:USCCI
by Lionheart-EWA
5
The Deflationary SpiralAll credit booms brought about by Central Bank-induced artificially low interest rates and loose lending standards end in busts. In the recessionary phase that follows the boom, credit becomes much harder to attain and many over-leveraged businesses end up going bankrupt. The recessionary phase reveals the malinvestments and unsound business decisions that were made during the economic boom. Businesses & Consumers deleverage their balance sheets either through paying down debt or through bankruptcy. As loan demand falls & credit conditions tighten, debt issuance falls, which reduces the supply of money into the economy because the vast majority of currency that enters the economy is loaned into existence. When credit growths slows and begins contracting alongside a falling money supply, inventory piles up and profits & margins fall while consumer spending falls. Businesses are then forced to sell at discounted rates to liquidate inventory in anticipation of weak future demand, which further reduces profits & margins and leads to increased unemployment and weaker levels of consumption. The “Deflationary Spiral” subsides and an economic recovery can take place once balance sheets are back to healthy levels which can support debt accumulation, capital investment recovers, and once large amounts of the “bad” debts taken on during the economic boom have been deleveraged. US M2 Money Supply is currently down -4.2% YoY using March 2023 data, the largest monetary contraction in the USA since the Great Depression. Using data going back to 1870, every time the money supply contracted by over 1% YoY the stock market had a large correction and the economy fell into a severe & lengthy contraction with unemployment reaching at least 7%. A banking panic always accompanied those contractions as well. Commercial bank deposits are currently down around -5% YoY, the most since the Great Depression. Total commercial bank deposits didn’t even contract during the early 1990s Savings & Loan Crisis. With money supply shrinking and the majority of banks unable to pay competitive rates on deposits, deposits will continue falling and more bank failures will occur. The large amounts of unrealized losses on bank balance sheets represent another impediment to loan growth and banks have continued to raise reserves for multiple quarters in response to rising default rates. Fed research from the Fed Bank of Saint Louis show bank lending conditions (measured by percentage of banks tightening lending conditions) are comparable to early 2008 & late 2000. Bank lending conditions are a leading indicator for unemployment. The unemployment rate currently is still below 4%, but with the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators index currently at -7.2% and the bond yield curve still inverted, many reliable economic datapoints show that the economy is closer to the beginning of this business cycle downturn and debt deleveraging than the end. Yield curve inversions & Conference Board LEI’s have been some of the best leading indicators for a recession since the 1970s. Since 1968, any Conference Board LEI contraction of more than -2% YoY has never yielded a false positive in regards to a coming recession. The Credit Managers’ Index newly released data for April showed that the index for rejection of new credit applications (within the service sector) was 45.9, its lowest level since March 2009. The US Consumer is beginning to run dry on savings. The majority of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and consumer credit growth (which had been expanding rapidly in 2022) has slowed markedly. Total consumer credit growth has fallen about 50% YoY (using the 3 month average of data from December - February). After falling below 3.2% in the summer of 2022, the US savings rate is still low by historic standards, currently 5.1%. Announced job cuts for the month of March were 89.7K, higher than the first 3 months of the 2008 recession. US large corporate bankruptcy filings (Bankruptcies of companies with over $50M in liabilities) from Jan-April totaled 70, seven more than during the same length of time in 2008. Student loan debt payments are set to resume again this summer, which will further reduce consumer spending. US Consumer sentiment levels measured by University of Michigan hit the lowest levels ever (going back to 1952) in the summer of 2022, and they have been fluctuating around 2H 2008 & 1H 2009 levels ever since. Delinquency rates on things like automobiles, credit cards, and commercial real estate loans are soaring. Cox Automotive found 1.89% of auto loans in January were "severely delinquent" and at least 60 days behind payment, the highest rate since the data series began in 2006. In March, the percentage of subprime auto borrowers who were at least 60 days late on their bills was 5.3%, up from a seven-year low of 2.58% in May 2021 and higher than in 2009, the peak of the financial crisis, according to data from Fitch Ratings. Retail sales are an economic metric that track consumer demand for finished goods. US real retail sales down -2.1% and EU real retail sales are -9.9%. German real retail sales for the month of march just came in at -15.8% YoY! According to Bloomberg, Global PC shipments are down close to 30% YoY & Apple computer shipments are down about 40% YoY. In the past 50 years, US Gross fixed capital formation has only gone negative in the US before and during recessions. It is now negative and there has never been a false positive. Data from the Mortgage bankers association showed a -39% YoY decline in Mortgage purchase applications, a decline to its lowest levels in over 26 years. US Building Permits are down -24% YoY. Housing Starts YoY are down -17% YoY. Existing Home Sales are down -22%. Every national housing downturn in the past 45 years has taken at least 4 years from peak to trough prices, indicating that the current housing downturn is likely to continue for at least 2-3 years. Every FED Regional bank report on manufacturing (using a 3 month average of the data) is in a contraction. The April Philadelphia FED Manufacturing index came in at -31.3. Since 1969, Every reading under -30 was either in a recession or a few months away from one. April Richmond FED Service Sector Index registered a -23, the same number as in Nov 2008 & Feb 2009 & worse than Jan 2009 which was -20 (August and September 2008 were -10 for reference). US manufacturing production is down -.5% YoY. March 2023 ISM PMI data was also very insightful. USA ISM Manufacturing PMI (March) was 46.3, its lowest level since June 2009 (excl. H1 2020). For reference, in the 08 recession, it wasn’t until October 2008 that the ISM manufacturing PMI fell under 46.3, over 9 months into that recession. USA ISM Manufacturing New Orders (March) was 44.3, its lowest level since March 2009 (excl. January 2023 & H1 2020), USA ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (March) came in at 51.2, its lowest level since Jan. 2010 (excl. H1 2020). The US Stock market is trading at one of the highest Shiller PE ratios & stock market capitalization to GDP ratios in history. Present day stock market valuations are rivaled only by the Roaring 20s Bubble (1929), The Nifty-Fifty Bubble (late 1960s/early 1970s) & the 1999/2000 Dot-com Bubble. All 3 of those examples were followed by the most negative 10 year real returns in USA stock market history going back to 1913. Over 40% of businesses in the Russell2000 are unprofitable and over 1/5 of the S&P500 are zombie companies. Clearly, the stock markets as of April 2023 are still in bubble levels of overvaluation. Looking at the data in aggregate, I believe that a recession is currently occurring. Assuming earnings fall by about 30% peak to trough, using a conservative average from the past 4 US recessions, I assume S&P annualized earnings will fall to around 155. Using a conservative valuation multiple of 14, that gives a target price of about 2,200 for the S&P500 that is likely to be hit in Q4 2023 or 2024. Thank you for reading, Alexander Charles Lambert
AMEX:RSPShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
XDB rest of 2023 prediction. Depression before lambo!This is my expectation for how the XDB/USDT chart will play out for the rest of the year. As you can see, I am expecting an extended period of depression, giving us some huge buying opportunities. Somewhere between July/August we might hit the peak of this depression and capitulation, where we could see prices as low as $0.0004 at the absolute bottom. Then in September we might see a big 10x pump to $0.004, before dropping back to the $0.001 area again, and then we may pump to $0.01 before the end of the year, 25x from the bottom. The targets of my previous article are still in play long-term. This means that if you could catch the bottom in the $0.0004 - $0.0008 range, and hold it to the long-term target of $0.07, you could potentially make up to 150x your investment. Obviously, anything under $0.001 is a strong buy, but you need to keep in mind that it could go as deep as $0.0004. An interesting rest of the year ahead!
Long
by jariii
BTC Global SHORTI don't want to explain u +100500 reasons , why do we cannot go parabolic uptrend from now. (because i don't need too and i don't WANT to help u survive ) I just want this Vision to be Published. Just too much FOMO, too much people waiting TO THE MOON when the big Depression is very close. U can believe me or nor - I DON'T CARE I've closed ALL Longs from 16k here as it is my first Target (30k) It is always hard to SHORT when most of people are laughing at BEARS, think they've died , BUT THEY ARE NOT. Futures Setup (1x-10x): Entry : 30k SL : 33000 Take : 25000 20500 16600 10000 6000 Futures Setup (1-4x): Entry : 30k SL : 37500 Take : 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by PsyLord666
6
ETH - UnTiL wHeRe tHe BuLL RaLLy WiLL gO ?Greetings traders! I am sharing to you today one of my COINBASE:ETHUSD Elliott Waves analysis. That one is bullish until the summer '23 Fibonacci Extention from the bottom of the orange W to the orange X in order to find the orange Y Fibonacci Retracement of the purple WXY, in order to know where the objectives converges to be more precise Fibonacci Extention of the blue (ABC) to find the blue (C) Fibonacci Extention to find the green extention 3 wave Fibonacci Retracement to find the green extention 4 wave Fibonacci Extention to find the green extention 5 wave * * BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves, from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way, Contact me in private if you are interested * * Don't hesitate to comment and check my other idea
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by ModTrades
2
ETH - While the masses are BULLISH, Elliott tells you to SHORTTTHey guys, Been a long time isn't it? I'm back for new analysis. Don't worry, the bull rally isn't over, we are just shorting hard in order to have a 50% of bullish variation just after. I will upload my Elliott Wave long term vision for the different chart that I analyse: SP:SPX ; NYMEX:CL1! ; COINBASE:BTCUSD ; COINBASE:ETHUSD ; FOREXCOM:XAUUSD I will explain how I count my waves and I found my objectives FOLLOW ME TO NOT MISS ANY OF MY FUTURE PLANS * * BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way, Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested * * Don't hesitate to comment and check my other idea
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by ModTrades
4
A Pause on Consumerism Christmas Personal Savings are at a historic low, Consumer Credit at highs, and Inflation hasn't popped. The United Kingdom and other leading Eurozone parties have proclaimed their Recession, as the Federal Reserve, BEA, and Executive Branch fight against Wall Street Banks, Wall Street Megacompanies, and basic economic equations contradict each other regarding the US's. Q3 GDP came in positive due to a massive decline in imports caused by overstocking through the first half of the year as every company listened to Jerome Powell and bought inventory. Inventory that is now looking to start hitting sales prices on the back of continued consumer weakness starting hardcore in September, a massive deflation in shipping costs, some energy costs, and a big tick down in demand. Still, the money isn't there for American consumers amid high usage of credit cards in the environment of an ever-inflating cost of living. This analyst believes the most likely outcome is a continued destruction of consumerism, feeling especially heavy on the back of a great Q4 Holiday season in 2020 and 2021 - bigly in thanks to monetary inflation. Lower wage workers have been struggling through the regular life costs amid continuously weak consumer and manufacturing surveys, even with a massive surge in domestic manufacturing construction. Mid-line income earners are in an environment of increasing recession expectations as big Tech are reducing numbers. And while the BLS stick to claims that there are two jobs for every one person looking for work, the underlying environment dispels this illusion. Failed banks aren't the only ones firing workers. Twitter was among the most successful social media companies and hasn't made a profit in history. Amazon's Alexa is being touted as one of the biggest tech failures in modern history, with 10k workers set to bite the dust on the first go from a company that has become the quickest to lose $1 Trillion in Market Cap. The rest of the tech industry is sitting in their own layoffs in the early days of a recession that not all can agree on. The increased probability of a weak Holiday sales period carries increased chances of continued layoffs from core business units and non-core. Amazon's Alexa might be one of the most unprofitable elements of a business that is now looking at dramatically reduced online-consumer spend after a year of reducing warehouse space and inventory while Unionization boomed. Google has shut down most of it's "Moonshot"/incubator projects along with peers, meaning they aren't seeing the Profit in business ventures they don't already master, hinting at a bad look for the space. Congruent to the destruction of the active economy, Stock market valuation deterioration hits at savings and spending now-on. Mortgage rates doubling stresses an already-dubious common ability to buy, thus reducing an already thin depth of bid. I believe we will continue to see degrading macroeconomic environments with a mix of good and bad news for the future as various international economies start to rotate through the current trends and into their future. A mix of extreme pessimism and optimism as the loudest Bulls and Bears continue screaming before the Holiday season, volatility will continue to be high. With a higher skew towards downward pressure, expect some strong similarities and contrasts to last year. The New Year Bump and Drag will likely be a big repeat, with potentially compounded effects. From a socio-psychological stance, I believe the consumer environment is primed for less push on fancy gifts as the narrative grows on Corporate Profit Greed being the greatest pusher of inflation - which is correct in the context that the Federal Reserve and an out-of-depth Government enabled and allowed it. Disclaimer This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. The function of this essay is the maddening diatribe of a curious mind, and how this one manages micro- and macro-economic data for a critical investigation into the micro- and macro-economic world. This text is not suitable for direct consumption, and should never be used as a primary or secondary source. The contents of this text are often illogical and offensive, and great care should be given to the reader's personal qualifications and senses. This text is delivered on TradingView, where the userbase is expected to have a level of financial and investigative understanding that would enable them to query appropriate thoughts and abdicate nonsense to the void. May whatever sovereign and omnipotent being you believe in, guide you through this.
AMEX:SPYShort
by DoctorFaustus
5
The Great Reset!!!CAUTION ONLY BIG BRAINS FROM HERE ON OUT!!! White: US 10 Year Bond Yield Orange: US Debt to GDP Blue: US yoy inflation "Inflation transfers wealth from creditors to borrowers for all sorts of nominal debt, not just government debt." -- Christopher J. Neely, Vice President at St. Louis Fed. What is the Great Reset? Is it a new 1929 Crash, a new Great Depression? No. The real Great Reset is the controlled writing down of US debt-to-GDP which has reached unsustainable levels and surpassed those at the end of WW2. In fact this chart only shows government debt (orange), in truth when you add corporate and all other forms of private debt, you get a figure currently in excess of 700% of GDP. People believe inflation is the problem, they don't understand that in most of the world it is a tool for writing down debt. This was also the case in the US after WW2. How do you write down debt measured against a country's productive output? Well, the easiest way is to increase GDP, but because in reality growth is limited (in some cases almost zero), it's easiest to do this by increasing the nominal value of GDP by ramping up inflation: Nominal GDP = Real GDP * inflation factor So by increasing inflation we increase GDP nominally and we decrease our debt with respect to productivity. So what does this have to do with the chart? Look what happened after WW2, when bond yields bottomed and debt-to-GDP peaked. These two reversed over the next 40 years until 1980, when they reversed again. Look what happened to the long-term inflation in that same 1945 to 1980 period: ignoring the many short-term spikes (known as surprise inflation), the curve slopes exponentially upwards, gently at first until culminating in the inflationary spial of the late 1970s. This same process is beginning again. We will see many short-term inflation spikes in the coming years (surprise inflation) but they will mask an underlying increase in long-term inflation. What does this mean? It means your savings will be wiped out with respect to purchasing power. It means diversify into bitcoin and other dead (non-productivity related) assets over the coming decade and decouple from the fiat. The same principle applies to Eurozone and other so-called developed countries with excessive debt-to-gdp ratios. Further reading: St. Louis Fed blog entry "Inflation and the Real Value of Debt: A Double-edged Sword" Russell Napier interview "We Will See the Return of Capital Investment on a Massive Scale" The truth is wealth is being transferred from the creditors, i.e. the citizen, to pay down government debt: as your savings lose purchasing power, the value of debt also vanishes. This is really why we say inflation is a tax!
TVC:US10Y
by cuibono
7