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100 YEARS OF GLOBAL CRISES, PANDEMIA, RECESSION and DEPRESSIONHere is the modern 100 years history of Human Being. Starting from WW1-Depression-WW2-ColdWar-DotComBubble-FinancialCrisis-COVID Will the history repeats again with Crash and Recovery? On chart I pointed with 1&2 phases of history is from 1915 to 2001 and from 2001 to current. Chart as image: 1. The Great Depression, World War II, Cold War, Dot Com Bubble The Great Depression began in the United States after a significant drop in stock prices, which began around September 4, 1929, and became world news after the stock market crash on October 29, 1929 (known as Black Tuesday). Between 1929 and 1932, global gross domestic product (GDP) declined by about 15%. In comparison, global GDP fell by less than 1% from 2008 to 2009 during the Financial Crisis. Some economies began to recover by the mid-30s. However, in many countries, the negative effects of the Great Depression continued until the outbreak of World War II. The Great Depression had devastating consequences in both rich and poor countries. Personal income, tax revenue, profits and prices fell, and international trade fell by more than 50%. Unemployment in the United States rose to 23%, and in some countries rose to 33%. Cities around the world have been hit hard, especially those that depend on heavy industry. Construction was virtually halted in many countries. Agricultural communities and rural areas suffered as crop prices fell by about 60%. Faced with a sharp drop in demand with several alternative sources of jobs, the most affected areas are those dependent on primary sector industries such as mining and logging. What stocks survived the Great Depression? Electric Boat Company gained +55,000% from 1932 to 1954, topping this interesting list of the top-10 performing Great Depression Stocks. Electric Boat (Defense; +55,000% Return) ... Truax Traer Coal (Coal; +30,503%) ... Spicer Manufacturing (Auto; +26,221%) ... Zenith Radio (Radios, Televisions; +24,146%) World War II , also called Second World War, conflict that involved virtually every part of the world during the years 1939–45. The principal belligerents were the Axis powers—Germany, Italy, and Japan—and the Allies—France, Great Britain, the United States, the Soviet Union, and, to a lesser extent, China. The war was in many respects a continuation, after an uneasy 20-year hiatus, of the disputes left unsettled by World War I. The 40,000,000–50,000,000 deaths incurred in World War II make it the bloodiest conflict, as well as the largest war, in history. Cold War , the open yet restricted rivalry that developed after World War II between the United States and the Soviet Union and their respective allies. The Cold War was waged on political, economic, and propaganda fronts and had only limited recourse to weapons. The result in 1989 was a wave of revolutions that (with the exception of Romania) peacefully overthrew all of the communist governments of Central and Eastern Europe. The Communist Party of the Soviet Union itself lost control in the Soviet Union and was banned following an abortive coup attempt in August 1991. The dot-com bubble (also known as the dot-com boom, the tech bubble, and the Internet bubble) was a stock market bubble caused by excessive speculation in Internet-related companies in the late 1990s, a period of massive growth in the use and adoption of the Internet. There are various ways to measure the amount of wealth that was annihilated when the bubble burst. As early as November 2000, CNNFN pegged the losses at $1.7 trillion What companies survived the dot com bubble? Here are some companies which survived the dot-com bubble. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) +45000% Return since 2001 eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) +1700% return Apple (NASDAQ: APPL) +36000% return 2. The Financial Crisis of 2007–08, COVID-19 recession, the Great Shutdown Financial crisis of 2007–08 , also called subprime mortgage crisis, severe contraction of liquidity in global financial markets that originated in the United States as a result of the collapse of the U.S. housing market. It threatened to destroy the international financial system; caused the failure (or near-failure) of several major investment and commercial banks, mortgage lenders, insurance companies, and savings and loan associations; and precipitated the Great Recession (2007–09), the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression (1929–c. 1939). The U.S. government then came out with National Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, which created a corpus of $700 billion to purchase distressed assets, especially mortgage-backed securities. Different governments came out with their versions of bailout packages, government guarantees and outright nationalization. The financial crisis of 2007-08 has taught us that the confidence of the financial market, once shattered, can't be quickly restored. In an interconnected world, a seeming liquidity crisis can very quickly turn into a solvency crisis for financial institutions, a balance of payment crisis for sovereign countries and a full-blown crisis of confidence for the entire world. But the silver lining is that, after every crisis in the past, markets have come out strong to forge new beginnings with some kind of turnaround. A small selection of investors even profited from the crisis. The coronavirus recession, also known as the COVID-19 recession, the Great Shutdown, or the Great Lockdown , is a major global recession which arose as an economic consequence of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The first major sign of the coronavirus recession was the 2020 stock market crash on 20 February, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported on 14 April that all of the G7 nations had already entered or were entering into a "deep recession" and that there had already been a significant slowdown of growth in emerging economies. IMF projections suggest that the coronavirus recession will be the most severe global economic downturn since the Great Depression, and that it will be "far worse" than the Great Recession of 2009. The pandemic has led to more than a third of the world's population being placed on lockdown to stop the spread of COVID-19. It has caused severe repercussions for economies across the world, following soon after a global economic slowdown during 2019 that saw stagnation of stock markets and consumer activity worldwide. This recession has seen unusually high and rapid increases in unemployment in many countries, and the inability in the United States for state-funded unemployment insurance computer systems and processes to keep up with applications. The United Nations (UN) predicted in April 2020 that global unemployment will wipe out 6.7 per cent of working hours globally in the second quarter of 2020—equivalent to 195 million full-time workers. In western nations, unemployment is expected to be at around 10%, with more severely affected nations from the COVID-19 pandemic having higher unemployment rates. The developing world is also being affected by a drop in remittances. The recession saw a drop in the price of oil triggered by the 2020 Russia–Saudi Arabia oil price war, the collapse of tourism, the hospitality industry, the energy industry and a significant downturn in consumer activity in comparison to the previous decade. Global stock markets crashed around 20 to 30% during late February and March 2020, respectively. During the crash, global stock markets made unprecedented and volatile swings, mainly due to extreme uncertainty in the markets. 👉 So many people claiming for next crisis/recession and global shit to happen, but: 👉 General question, are you really want this to happen? Stay profitable this is Artem Crypto
TVC:DJI
by ArShevelev
15
Correction or Rally?Hi Friends! There is action guaranteed in the coming months. Will we witness one last move down to complete the correction? Or will Bitcoin reach for the moon just now. How may the future of Blockchain look like? Top or Flop? Lets sit together, have some coffee and have a discussion. All Bulls and Bears are invited to share thoughts - charts - and cakes. Smiling traders are better traders ;) Happy trading! 'heish --- disclaimer --- this is not financial advise.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MeruEU
Evolution of the collapse of the United States part 2Average duration of an Empire: 250 years. Age of the United States: 244 years. Average duration of a reserve currency: ~90 years Well you know where this is going. Someone said: "History does not repeat itself but it rhymes". I disagree. It 100% repeats itself. You can't predict the name of the person that will die and start riots (François Ferdinand you might have, George Floyd no you can't unless you have a brain the size of a planet and millions of eyes everywhere). The emotional / empathy people can bury their heads in the sand, rewrite history, be in denial, events will still take place the exact same way. Roman leaders let Goth refugees fleeing the Hun wars in because they were thirsty for power or money, roman citizen that had an easy good life felt sorry for the refugees fleeing those terrible weird looking huns and their attrocities, then refugees tried taking over, started to persecute romans, and then it did a 180 a few years later and when the life got less good romans had enough, and then it was pogrom time. Jews have been persecuted for thousands of years after they fled israel and europe/north africa let them in "temporarily" (lol). It always ends up in some sort of fascism, well until recently. Since 1789 (french revolution) the population tired of working harder and harder to get less and less due to high taxes (includes the indirect tax of bank created inflation) & high land prices (high rents). The big revolutions that led to socialist ideas were the French & Russian & Chinese ones, at least that's the ones I know. I don't know the subject very well, I suspect forms of socialisms have existed for ever. I think the worst greatest depression ever was the 14th century one, and what created it was some braindead king that imposed super high taxes to finance his little wars. Led to black death. Actually after 1/3 of Europe died a horrible painful death, wages went up, and there was an economic boom. It was made worse by cold weather and quickly dropping CO2 levels (thanks to all the polluters, we won't have this problem now, unless a complete moron "saves us" and finds a way to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels, this "hero" imbecile would be 1000 times worse than Hilter Stalin & Mao combined). We're living in a war between the emotional & rational side, that can't understand each other, and are sworn enemies. As psychopath run companies lick the boots of the emotional group (Call of Duty, tv shows, etc), they are FORCING people in the middle to be involved. The emotional side also said "you are with us or against us", the thing with the people in the middle is sure they have tender feelings, they can empathize, but they can also be reasoned with. Shift way left for younger people, and right for older. Would it be racist if I drew a line for US blacks at the far far left? XD I'd probably trigger 1/3 of black america just asking this question. Of course trolls keep provocking them, they keep getting riled up the same way... Texas Senator Ted Cruz has challenged an emotional actor to a wrestling match with "deputy" (chamber of commons) Jim Jordan. Those tender feelings actors are good at pretending to feel things on camera (not Kristen Stewart), but they are also good at being useful idiots, and at getting extremely mad. That Seth Rogens guy, he had a mental breakdown with people saying that all lives matter and more blacks kill whites xd "I hate you!" "F! You! Seriously! I hope you die!" "F off don't watch my movies ever again" HAHAHA! xd How could anyone resist poking them? We're only human. It's impossible to resist. If they hear you say something true about Hitler but that sounds sort of positive (as dumb as "he had a nice mustache", or "well he improved the economy") they will go crazy because they cannot differentiate ideas, they just mix up everything, it's not facts to them it's feelings, so you got that red "bad" feeling and then you throw a "good" blue feeling and it goes like matter and antimatter BOOM! Every one always repeats that emotional control is most important for trading but it's like saying having arms is most important for boxing. No one would say that. You either have arms or don't. If you do then the most important thing is ...? training regularly and with discipline? The most important thing is backtesting and learning and experience and analysing correctly... Emotions you either have them or you don't, if you are in the middle then depending on how emotional then it might get important, but why insist on something where being too emotional is clearly a handicap? I guess people in the "less emotional" half in the middle have to work on "control" but still backtesting and understanding market reactions is more important than controlling emotions. Men deal with stress more with anger and aggressivity, they have to be like the Ukrainian Klitschko brothers. Some angry peasant spits water in Wladimir face, he ignores it, then he reks him in the ring. Same when Muhammad Ali trolls boxers in the ring dodging them and gets them to rage. But if you push it you could get your ear eaten by Mike Tyson so watch out (the other guy was cheating). I bet a huge number of investors & speculators are autists, Michael Burry says his son got diagnosed and he is certain he is too, some investors say after watching his movie (big short) they got curious and got asperger diagnosed... There are some pretty funny htings going on (and some worrying): BLM wants to tear down a statue... that was funded by freed slaves to honor Lincoln... 77 scientists have been removed from the National Institutes Of Health system for failing to reveal ties with forign governments Over 90% of the hidden funding came from China. May the purge begin Five African Students Hold Black Lives Matter Protest in Ukrainian City - City Council Minister Asks for their Names So He Can Deport Them A town in Florida had its police investigate officers shooting, and manage the peaceful riots, all resources were taken up. While the police was busy, a gullible emotional 19 years old blm girl accepted a ride from a stranger (???), and got molested. She got emotional and posted on twitter what happened (???), not forgetting to mention he was black, oh and she is black too I guess that's important zzzz. And then a few hours later she disappeared, and days later was found dead. Emotional people are crying "Justice for Toyin" after being surprised (they have the predictive abilities of a potato). They are STILL ARGUING. They STILL DON'T ADMIT THEY WERE WRONG. They STILL WANT TO DEFUND POLICE. There is no hope for them. Young people are also less rational, and more credulous. I didn't believe in santa & tooth fairy as far as I can remember at least since I was 6, and 20+ yo students still believe in it. XD Gooo "free stuff"! In a war or a survival situation, who do you think wins? Heart of stone or heart of marshmallow? Dozens of universities failed to disclose millions in Chinese donations. "Dozens of top American universities that received funding from the Chinese government failed to disclose those donations to the Department of Education.” I wonder if the roman empire had some "reparations" scam going on... That just makes bad situations worse... It's always the same stories, history repeats itself, just because details change a little doesn't mean it's different lol. Outcomes will be different but it always follows the same path. You could generate a simulation universe (wait is this what we...), repeat history 1 million times adding random events, I can guarentee you'll get similar results every time. My main 2 predictions for the USA are (either, or can have both too): - Civil war & division into 2 or more countries - Fascist state with deportations The US might have a short period of socialism but I think it is highly unlikely they have this in the long run (they keep shooting themselves in the leg for starters). A fascist state would be a winning investment, but the question is do you want to support & do your morals etc. If the country divides some new countries might be good investment after a time, and some will predictably be bad (look at what emotional people are liking more and avoid that, invest in the other one). I'll update this with major events and my thoughts, in the US, but also some in the rest of the world (UK, Europe, Koreas). Nothing to buy or sell at the moment, I'm all out. I'm improving my logbook dividing it in several tabs, 1 per type, will probably backtest certain things a bit. Maybe short the AUD again I'm not sure... "The thing about smart people is that they seem like crazy people to dumb people."
TVC:DJI
by MrRenev
11
Pathetic excuses. Shameful. Losers.The more protests and laws and bribes they get, the worse off they end up. Adversity Quotient = 0. This is what constant whining and blaming gets you. Absolute defeat. Imagine being given everything and getting absolutely put to shame by people with the same skin, which you use as an excuse, coming from third world countries with plagues and everything. Mobs of angry idiots are destroying history right now, ye that'll help. We are seeing right now why so many very important historical statues, tablets, books, etc have disappeared. Mobs of angry idiots. It appears clear as long as corrupt politicians bend to their idiotic demands this will never end. After the great depression I guess people will be tired of this and put their feet down, the US might even end up with a NAZI president & congress. How does anyone ends up addicted to a victim mentality? To me that deserves no respect. Victim addicts are the humpback in 300. White women earn less than migrant blacks, this is to be expected and perfectly normal, as well as the first millionaire woman in the US being black. Got my own theory, white women evolved to stay at home to take care of the house and kids. Pale skin = cold winter duh. Expecting equality when thousands of years of evolution did their thing, so stupid. It's really the perfect exemple of how the loser mentality produces loser results. The simple fact of whining and looking for excuses instantly makes anyone a turd and a huge loser. Imagine being near the poverty line while third world country migrants make 50 grans a year on average. Ridiculous. Now when the US collapses, and stops getting free stuff via the reserve currency scam, and stops getting an influx of indian asian and more migrants, and are left with communists, it's so going down (until the nazi take over, bad for human rights but good for the economy), while africa will retain it's ambitious youth. I saw somewhere that the biggest correlation to a country economic performance was how good the top 5% were, I'll make a separate idea about that, still part of my long term reconnaissance mission on Africa, which can easily have a meteoric rise like China up up up! (While Europe & NA have a meteoric crater). I expect with moderate certainty "afro americans" to migrate to Africa once it starts doing well, if the USA really go down the rabid hole, start asking for free stuff and commit crimes and whine about the system, then learn a really harsh lesson, potentially a lesson about pogroms. French police is protesting after some cuck minister that struggles to pronounce words with more than 10 letters bend over for the mob. In France even the police protests, national sport here. Every 4 years... I wish these idiot globalists would stop doing everything the USA does... 7 months left until we hear about the plans for the new world order, sure am curious... Will they go down the path of pathetic excuses? There will never be an escape, when you are wrong and keep adding to your loser you know what happens... The woke club are literally retail traders that are too stupid to figure out they are wrong and keep adding to their loser until it blows out of proportion (civil war / nazis). I can't wait to see Disney bend the knee to nazis and say that we need a cleansing. Disgusting people. Meanwhile the FED are collaborating with Blackrock to buy stocks and to enrich each other via inflation and even directly with taxpayer money... They're all jewish, so guess who will get the blame? So one more reason to think the nazi will take over. Watching "ice cube" get progressively redpilled live, lmao. I'm not a communist, I'm not a jew, I'm not black. They will absorb all the blame. And even if they don't for some crazy reason, I can get a passport for 3 different countries. Feels good. Just as long as I keep predicting everything in advance, and get out before the herd does (there is no way I don't front run the herd, IMPOSSIBLE). And "slavery reparations" sound very very very much like "war reparations", hard to believe it's not intentional. EU is making all countries pay to "recover", but guess which ones will be huge net givers and which ones will be huger net recipients? Looks like a perfect recipe for yet another Europe war. Well done with your EU to prevent war, big brain geniuses. There is but 1 goal: Grow that account, get that house in a rural area + crops, build that bunker. Be ready in case, so we'll be singing "they're killing each other, and I'm just chilling in my bunker". Risk management. Self Sustainability, a bit of gold & silver jewelry, some lasting food, all set. And pro tip: make sure to go out IN THE MORNING. That's when people with jobs are out, the angry mobs go out in the evening ;) Going to publish a survival guide soon if this keeps on going. www.tandfonline.com Can find articles quoting it for free
TVC:GOLDEducation
by MrRenev
6
Bitcoin - calm before the storm ?Considering trillions of US dollars being printed in last 12 months. There is one way certain, they can not continue printing indefinitely. With printing they increase debt and lower purchasing power of not only US citizens but on to rest of the worlds citizens, as also large percentage of USD is sitting outside of US borders. All currencies in the world since 1970s are no longer backed by gold as real money, but are backed by trust into US dollar currency. USD is loosing its power, as they are adding it more and more and proving they do not know what they are doing. This kind of management is not only playing with your future and future of your kids it is potentially going to cause worst depression that will ever happen in our known modern history, that will take whole world into shock. When it comes, it will come strong and sudden. And it will bring all down. Bitcoin will not be any better, it will also be dragged down. People will try to get out of everything to get a little bit of their currency so they can pay bank loans and buy food. Times will be difficult, however first asset that may bounce hard, much harder than gold or silver, won't be stock market, it will be Bitcoin
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by grant-myself-large-pastor
2
s&p 500 with -50% crush at 1500 till end of the 2020SPX crushes never stopped above MA 200. Even FED pump of 3 trillion into market, buying even stocks of companies that are in bankruptcy, would be over. Earlier or later the crush of -50% will happen as of people will need to sell something to pay bills - already 20% unemployed, 30% not paying rent or mortgage bills in time. As long FED pumps money to keep the dead market breathing as hard would it be when the market will awaken. In 1929 it was the speculators who pumped the market 4 times from 7 to 30 and it crushed below 7.
SP:SPXShort
by viparmenia
Massive Broadening Top on the S&P 500 (Updated)This is an update of my previous idea showing the multi-year topping pattern happening on the S&P 500. The previous post is linked below in related ideas. Since that post we've had an incredibly aggressive rally, breaking above all estimated rebound levels, closing all gaps in the March decline, and now looking to challenge all time highs. But the big picture remains the same: we're in a massive, volatile topping pattern at the tail end of an aging bull market. Here are a few things that are new to the situation since the previous update: Two months of gaps all the way up (seen on a daily chart) that will eventually fill An over-extended rally, that might better be called a mania, not seen since the 2000 tech bubble The highest valuations ever by some measures The lowest put/call ratios ever (showing nobody is concerned about downside) The largest monetary interventions ever One of the highest extensions above the 50 day moving average ever (and who knows how many other overbought indicators) Noob retail traders jumping into the market like nothing seen since the 2000 tech crash Unprecedented protests/social unrest, further adding to the economic issues and breaking down social distancing norms, sure to bring on another wave of Covid Meanwhile the economic situation remains positively terrible with nothing by comparison in history but the Great Depression. Basically we're seeing a stock mania, a massive disconnect from fundamentals, happening inside of a recession--something that has never happened before. Thanks Fed! So looking at the situation objectively, I just can't join all the bulls running so madly ahead while cheering for new highs. The economic situation says the the bull born in 2009 is dying if not already dead. And technically what I see is we've now rallied back up near to the top of the multi-year pattern. So what's the upside? Maybe 100-150 points to the top of the pattern. And the downside? The risk of a 1000 point decline that could be a 2000 point decline if we break the March lows. Are you kidding me? Has there ever been a worse risk/reward in history? Nobody in their right mind is buying here. And that's just it, the market is in a mania--participants are not in their right minds. Some people are saying the March decline was just a correction, and maybe they're right. But what that means is we haven't even seen the bear yet. The increasingly large drops to the bottom of the megaphone the last few years have just been the initial moves as the bull comes to an end... just a warm up to what is eventually coming. What are we going to see when the market finally turns if the 35% crash in March was just a shudder from a tiring bull? Holy cow. It's times like this where it's worth pointing out that cash is a position, and it's a sane position that easy to hold as the world goes insane. At least if you can avoid the fear-of-missing-out mania now running rampant through the markets.
SP:SPXShort
by MystryBox
74
1929, RETAIL COMPLACENCY AND SELF DECEIT. A RECAPITULATIONThis article was written by the phenomenally talented acatwithcharts and edited by me. I didn’t think this was 1929 until this past few weeks, but now it looks like that’s what this has become. The problem is that if that’s true, we might not even be done running the bubble up. Something’s got to give but I’ve also been saying that for 5-10% now, which, is symptomatic of retail delusion. Retail participation and sentiment has begun to resemble late 2017-early 2018 crypto, compounded by the further financial desperation of current world events. COVID-19 cases are setting new highs in Texas and Florida. Arizona is parabolic and we’ll be testing the “nothing matters anymore” question pretty soon with some states needing to close again. Outside of the US however, RIP emerging markets. Latin America is now the world’s epicenter and India’s daily cases are straight line up. There are various charts floating around Twitter showing it different ways, here for example. "This is stunning. At the peak of speculative fervor in February, small traders bought to open 7.5 million call contracts. This week, they bought 12.1 million.Watch what people do, not what they say. They're full-bore bullish, on steroids." Ah, right. The complacency phase. "We just needed to cool off for the next rally," despite the fundamentals getting significantly worse. This kind of thing doesn’t happen very often, we’re talking about end cycle behavior. The behavior during the year 2000 and the beginnings of retail being able to trade over the internet is probably the closest available comparison. This is very important to understand, either for the first time in history retail traders are getting it right.... ...or parabolic call buying on the most expensive the market has been since 1929 if not ever is idiotic. Two important notes we don't have the same quality of datasets to make a clear comparison, and my back of the envelope math is that 1929 was 2x as expensive as 2000. "I watched the food disappear off the shelves in the stores. I saw the panic spread, the people dying in Italy. I saw the giant drop of the market (yes, obviously an opportunity), but I also saw lots of other things that started coming. Fractures in our system began to appear. Supplies dwindled because they were too efficient and not stable enough. Minor changes broke companies. Travel basically halted. Now you've got major protests. Don't people see that it's not getting better, but it's a slow enough slide into a worse scenario that people are simply able to get comfortable before another drop?" -Eamon It's worse than that, as COVID-19 first wave never ended in the US. "2-4 weeks" is the supposed lag time, while here in Texas we started reopening with cases still rising a month ago. At this point the only real argument for why we're this high up is Fed intervention, though yield curve has widened to Jan 2018 levels. These yield curve readings suggest that they are at the limits before they start having unintended consequences that erode their effect. You have a hole in a hot air balloon, just because you're throwing money into the fire to make it hotter, it isn't making the hole any smaller. The issue is that the bounce is still going, in percentage terms the bounce is greater than the crash. At SPX 2600-2700, you could squint, say optimistically that the same forward P/E ratios made sense because you thought we weren't going to have major COVID-19 disruptions once we reopened. I would have disagreed with that case but it could have made sense and led to quarters of compression. Valuations are now 20-40% higher than in Feb given downward revisions. It's insane. The initial panic in 1929 saw a 50% drop in 2 months. A lot of people bought on the first bull trap one month in after it had dumped 100ish points. Where many really lost their shirts was in the 2nd month, but then there was a 50% rally over the next 6 months. Problems stemmed from the fact that the stock market was recovering, but the economy wasn't. 1929 is so crazy when you read the stories, like 2017 crypto crazy except with even more money. Ships crossing the Atlantic had brokerage offices with telegraphed stock info so people could trade on the ship. You can't make this shit up, 10x leverage was the standard amount and basically became the hot fad among the upper middle class and higher. There were few rules and the market was comically manipulated, RCA was famously pumped to absurd heights for example. It's hard to replicate 1929 because it was just so over the top. Accessible stock trading was a new experience for Americans. In the 2000 bubble, a similar situation on a smaller scale happened when the internet suddenly made electronic trading something ordinary people could do.
TVC:SPXLong
by DadShark
6
A new world order for a safe and secure societyRussia bailed us out in 1941-1945. What am I saying. Germany invaded Poland then UK & France declared war on it. After decades of tension and hating each other. USA has no tension with west europe. USA is massive, literally it's a whole continent, and USA has tensions with USA. Plus the extremes all love Europe and the far left think it is heaven on earth why would they nuke us? Well this can change especially if we get overwhelmed with migrants. I don't want to be over optimistic but I think we'll just chill while certain states fight over states OR groups fight each other I don't know we will see. Or at least have time to flee to Switzerland or Tunisia and good luck Europe with WW2 cya 😜 The Credit Crisis of 1772 led to the US revolution in 1775. France had issues and then revolution there happened in 1789. The great depression of 1929 led to WW2 in 1939. The long depression lasted 1873–1879 and was called the great depression until 1929. I guess the great depression will get a new name soon 😂 Panic of 1857, a U.S. recession with bank failures Panic of 1866, was an international financial downturn that accompanied the failure of Overend, Gurney and Company in London 1861-1865: US civil war. Meh idk. There will be a big paradigm shift and it will come with violence. Above the government there is the law. Above the law there is the constitution. Above the constitution there is violence. Above violence there is idk god or the universe or something. Well first comes time, then above time the fabric of the universe then above that we don't really know but at some point god I guess. Also above violence there are agriculture and supply lines but let's stop here. I think someone said this "Violence is the supreme authority from which all other authority is derived." Repulicans and Democrats still bickering, but at least Obama (who certainly is not a "true black" by now) has spoken out against the riots. He's been pushing back against the far left alot these past years. Are the anarchists, antifa, and blm that dangerous? They pissed themselves when they saw "all these damn racist white people with huge guns" in suburbs. Anyway, big war or not, big change. There will be more tensions, more change, more blood. Can't tell how much there will be of each, but they'll be some for sure. This mega depression will provide us with some cheap stocks in foreign markets. The US and India are sooo expensive and I prob avoid them both, not so sure after that, there are alot of possibilities, we'll see who will be healthier in the next few years there is time. A couple quotes from the 2020 riots: Hollywood is paying to bail out rioters, and encouraging them. With a few exceptions such as quoted James Woods. The average actor is a complete moron that drives directors mad, Lenin used to call them "useful idiots". James Woods has a reported IQ of 180. Probably a coincidence, and IQ does not mean anything. Unless you want to solve a math problem. Or new tech. Or to land on Mars. Or a vaccine. Or... Michael j Burry famous for predicting the trash securities crisis which had a movie made about, is quoting statistics and saying there is not a big racism problem. Or not as big as claimed. It's always the same people agreeing about the same stuff... A rifle for protecting the streets/neighbourhood. A shotgun for protecting one's home. A handgun in case. Some food & water to get throught a curfew/cut supply lines. So much traces left behind. So much irrational behavior. Historians are going to love this. Can't link old ideas for some reason. Gee I saw some blood but just saw an old back man that took an antifa spear in the shoulder while he was driving. GEEEEEE. More black people got hurt during this "protest for black lives" than in the past 5 years by police. So dumb. Counting those that got their business destroyed it's off the chart. Community destroyed? Even worse.
TVC:DJI
by MrRenev
2
(One of) The terrible consequence of lockdownThis crap spread to Europe. Meanwhile Sweden having a beautiful and calm summer. Russia has already called covid-19 a hoax, because they claim 12.5% of the city have antibodies, and less than 2000 died, they estimated a death rate of 0.12% "At least 12.5% of Moscow population has covid-19 antibodies". www.rt.com Madrid has also 10 to 14% of its population that developped antibodies. 20% of people tested in New York had antibodies. I heard Germany interior ministery called covid-19 a hoax but could not confirm and I expect this to be an exageration. The russian supreme court, back more than 1 month ago has banned (with strict punishment) the proliferation of fear mongering. Remember in 2016 Putin banned the Rothschild New World Order banking cabal from Russia "under any circumstance" and declared "total independance". George Soros is also banned from Russia (plus a few other countries). Trump has retweeted a fox news segment that contained (this was just part of it) a part where a man - afro american btw - said the US should have "deported George Soros several decades ago he's a destruction to our civilisation and a clear and present danger to our country" This cracks me up, don't want to spread conspiracy theories, just saying this is how people feel about Soros, the Rothschilds and their "philanthropy" and "New World Order", I mean these guys literally said there should be an international coalition of big bankers that would be a government to govern all nations... If the US kicks Soros out, make sure to send Bill Gates and his vaccine along. The majority of the population is not mentally insane and we'll get out of this stronger. Or alive at least that would be nice. We really have to do something about the over urbanisation and the high incidence of mental illnesses. GDP in Q2 predicted to contract by 50%! Before thinking of buying cheap shares in the future, or shorting when really wise retail investor stop buying, the priority is to stay alive. I think Europe should do allright, people are mentally ill and absolute cucks but they are not as angry as young americans that are literally poor people. Americans that live anywhere but in ultra progressive democrat run cities should be ok. The rest... yikes, absolute devastation. And how will people even eat of the stores are all burned down? Well anyway no point dragging into this cancer I'll end this idea here. "Maybe saddling an entire generation of kids with debt & no hope of joining the property class while sending them to institutions that marinate them in neo-Marxist ideology wasn't such a good idea."
DEducation
by MrRenev
17
Evolution of the collapse of the United States"Perma bears are ridiculous" 🤡 Honk Honk Brace yourselves for the "no one could have predicted this" 🤮 Going to update on the destruction, and economic & monetary consequences, I wonder if China will want to keep holding onto the USD... "America is CHRONICALLY ILL with racism, Beijing proclaims". LOL China adding fuel to the fire go figure. I'm dying 😂. It's so childish. China and Russia must be celebrating rn. I'll call the USA racist too when I go short, well I already am via USDMXN but this is short term and the usd collapse prob comes much later. DC is in blackout now, protestors are not able to use phones or the internet to organise a coup anymore. I doubt they had the intelligence to prepare walkie talkies. It's of course making Trump look bad. Every one focussing on Trump as if the individual himself is important. Half of the USA hold 1% of the wealth. When the USA used their reserve currency status to increase their wealth, I think they forgot a few people lol. The wealth of the bottom 20% is negative they're all in debt (to banks not to Trump). No one has protested against banks or the FED. Income distribution in west europe is pretty chill, and it has been stagnating or getting more equal (despite all the immigration making it worse) in the past 20 years. The USA of course have kept getting worse at a fast rate. Here is the income distribution for the Netherlands, most countries are on this site: www.indexmundi.com Wealth distribution in west europe is much much better than in the USA, for now (and since the USA are burning let's stop following their example), and it's one of the most equal places on earth. Raising taxes doesn't work that well, I mean it works but up to a point, it's not a magic solve everything thing: "The impact of direct taxes in reducing income inequality, as demonstrated by the gap between the Gini coefficients of disposable and gross, is larger for years where there is a top income adjustment. This reflects the fact that the top income adjustment increases the income of the richest individuals and therefore also the amount of tax paid." www.ons.gov.uk And even if you taxed at 99%, assuming it works as they expect, then what? The top 1% control everything earn everything, and then all they have gets taxed by an all powerful government that throw it as they wish to (the army) 99% of the country on welfare (no, the army like Maduro). Every one doesn't want to be a loser totally dependant on the government (what is left after the army's cut). There is a video of a black man in handcuffs with a dog holding his arm. The dog won't let go (racist dog). The man in cuffs keeps saying he is comfortable. The police is so terrified of doing "brutality" they are desperate to pull the dog away and hurting the man. Irony... He should be allright, he said he was comfortable, if the dog was biting really hard we'd know. Is that dog going to court? Man I hope they don't euthanize the poor fellah. Or the dog. Diversity ... consists of minority groups explaining how they have been injured by the majority, even though this is a tactic for minority groups to overthrow the majority. A group wants anarchism, a group wants a certain minority that's not them to get persecuted, a group has no brain, a group is angry and wants "something", a group has guilt, a group is sheep, a group is looking for votes or popularity. It's an attack on capitalism... They don't care about being wealthy, they want every one to be poor. Also seing lots of people ask for more violence "burn it down", then cry when it happens next to their home. HAHA! There's been marxists yelling "eat the rich" around Hollywood. Irony... Hard times create strong men Strong men create good times Good times create weak men Weak men creat hard times The country created university inflation, both in the need for a diploma, and in the prices (universities kept raising prices since loans were guaranteed). Governments were looking for a few votes from students "hey you won't have to work during the summer to pay for university if you vote for me". You need a master degree to flip burgers almost now, 1 century ago the greatest economists investors etc had a bachelor degree or even nothing... To all the clowns that cried victory after QE in the 2010s "woohoo we fixed the banking crisis and solved the recession", NOW is your time to feel stupid. Now is when it all begins, now is when I start rubbing it in your faces. Remember when you called us ridiculous perma bears? This did not age well. Good luck avoiding a 10% GDP contraction, the definition for a depression to force people in denial to admit it. "At the top of the bull market bears were ridiculed". The USA are going to burn from the inside and west europe will just chill. Hey does this mean migrants will avoid the USA all all come to Europe? Rip. University professors are sending instructions on how to topple monuments and official buildings... Maybe crippling an entire generation with debt & sending them all to marxist institutions was not the brighest idea? Maybe holding ridiculously low rates to help the rich get richer at the expense of the 90% was not the brightest idea?
Short
by MrRenev
3
History Doesn't Repeat But it Often RhymesA new possibility has arisen due to the FEDeral reserve's actions to stabilize the market. The first half of this period will look like 1929 however throughout value will be lost relative to price. We could see halfway through the collapse inflation takes over and prices go crazy. This will be especially damaging to index investors who simply see prices rising and stand still till thinking the worst is over until they begin to see the price effects on their daily lives and make the connection triggering selling and a rush to hard assets. I hope I am wrong but this is looking more and more like a possibility and thus I feel the need to share the idea. Any comments are appreciated.
TVC:DJI
by GreatScottTheMoon
FED and Shoulders - Massive Bear Setup in Stock Indices Amid depression-level unemployment, the stock market is nearing all-time highs. But how and why? THE FED! The Federal Reserve is funneling money into corporations via buying corporate bonds. Corporations then take this money and buy their own stock, hopefully netting out those who can see the writing on the wall. The average age of a Baby Boomer is 66 - retirement time! How do we retire a generation when the stock market is at 2000-2008 levels or lower? The FED indirectly provides the liquidity with printed dollars. Boomers will not think about putting Trump back in this November if they go into retirement without cash. For corporations to also benefit from all this free money, do they just buy their stocks and hold? Is it not the rational choice to convert their new stock inventory to cash for themselves as a matter of survival? Will the FED be there to keep buying? Do we in fact live in a world without consequences? As a false bull wave hypnotizes the masses, those with cash to buy stocks 'since the market is going up' will provide this liquidity to corporations. Market participants will lose faith in a market where price discovery becomes compromised. Market cycles and pandemics cannot be printed away. When numbers come out at the end of this and subsequent quarters, when real prices rise, when stimulus checks don't make it to consumers, the bottom will inevitably fall out. It will inevitably and indirectly be the FED who bears the losses in the stock market, as opposed to the boomers. Or that's the idea anyway. Significant buying opportunities ahead, as soon as the FED stops fiddling. That, or we see an end of public markets in the United States. When the government enables corporations to buy their own stock, risk free, with magic money, what are the big-picture implications of that?
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by scottybfx
1
"Free stuff" part 1: Just tax the rich!Part 1 of my 2 parts (or more?) article on "free stuff". I will start immediatly by saying that the ultra rich did not become rich by "earning income". They got there by asset appreciation. Jeff Bezos did not "earn" 150 billion in wages. His company valuation went way up. So therefore it is impossible for the government to tax the super rich wealth like this. What would they do? Confiscate their shares and sell them? To what idiot? The way for the government to tax the super rich wealth is to nationalise their companies. This is what is called socialism. Works absolutely great. They can also confiscate land and give it as bribes to their electorate, like Zimbabwe did. It took a few months for Zimbabwe to say "we are starving we beg you to come back". Anyone that expects the government to be competitive (lol), or some bureaucrat to be innovative (double lol) is seriously delusional. Ignorant people can argue all they want: it got tried countless times and always failed in the same way. The debate is settled. The only industries that make sense to nationalise are the natural ressources of a country. Extracting Oil in particular. And most people can agree that this is quite fair. Exploiting the country ressources and of course sharing it with the country is fair. Robbing the hard work of someone isn't. France is the biggest spender in the world. They spend 55.5% of the GDP. GDP is 2400 billion euros in 2019. They got a whooping 87 billion euros from income tax. The upper bracket is 45%. Plus 66-70 billion with taxes on companies. The chart I drew with redistribution. It takes from the rich and raises the bottom 20%. The lower middle class gets scammed because those at the bottom, which are mostly handicapped and very low IQ and so on (they make almost nothing before government spending because they can't work most of the time), get uplifted up at the level of the bottom middle class. What all those numbers do not show: high taxes on companies means all this money goes to the government, not to the workers, and then the government redistribute it. Look. The ENTIRE income tax brought 87 billion. Not just the rich. And the government spends way more. On this page they have a 200 billion project to repay the debt. www.aft.gouv.fr In the entire budget it's "only" 330 billion, but that's not 55% of gdp, I guess all the rest is just regular spending (paying police etc) that is not counted in it? According to the french tax site impotsurlerevenu.org The top 1% pay 25% of income tax, and the next 9% pay 35%. With basically a 50% tax on the top 1%. They get about 21-22 billion euros from the top 1%. Historically raising taxes on the rich has lowered revenue (and raising on every one has increased revolts by a 10000 factor). Won't go into this, don't want to make this too long. Assume the top 1% was taxed at 100% and they're absolute suckers they keep making as much money for others. Woohoo! France got an additional 20 billion. With this they can... do nothing... People at the bottom, which on average have a much lower IQ but it's a coincidence, think the rich have a horn of plenty, they think so little of themselves (maybe they're right about that) that they see the rich as absolute gods that can multiply bread & wine, but so evil that they keep it all for themselves. A fun fact is that when the rich put money into the bank or in stocks, it does create some inflation, it would be wrong to say "money not spent is as if it didn't exist", there will be some inflation (althought very little just look at the BoJ they printed so much cash to create inflation and that cash just slept in safe deposits and created nothing, it only creates inflation if the bank lends it...) Either way, both if the rich keeping their money creates some inflation or nearly none, when the government spends it it creates way more. And we have seen that the rich are not demi-gods that single handidly generate the whole GDP of a country (lol). All this "redistributed" money comes from 80% of the populaition, via various taxes (including value added taxes which clearly reduced purchasing power), and via inflation, via government printing money or monetizing debt which steal wealth from the current generation, and the gov taking debt that steals wealth from the future generation. Taxing the rich won't create heaven on earth. Apart from making voters happy, and maybe feeding those at the bottom 20%, it doesn't do anything. If taxing the rich made every one happy and beautiful and wealthy and equal, wouldn't the Soviet Union have done it? Why does China Gini not decrease after the rich get taxed? Hey and what about the fact that Irish- and African- americans poorest periods were when they were getting a ton of welfare, and best periods economically were when they were getting the least? I looked again at some pictures from the great depression. People in line for free soup. Both whites & blacks. They disliked getting their picture taken. And they hated having to queue for soup. They had dignity back then. Compared to today where the government has grown and grown and people of their own will want "free stuff". Absolutely shameful. Taxing reduces inequality. Yes. It works. It works by uplifting the bottom 20% that cannot survive on their own. Koko the gorilla. Koko the gorilla won't go to college. Before the government "help" did you know that university in the USA was really cheap, and poor kids that went there could take a summer job to pay for it? And you didn't need a university diploma for most jobs? By "helping", the government has destroyed the system. Universities got super expensive. Students get massive debt. Jobs all require diplomas now, for no reason. Spoiled brats shot themselves in the leg. Well done. By "helping", the government has also made house prices go waaaaay up. Absolute bubble. The winners are those that owned a house before. And the population that cheered, now can barely afford a roof over their head, some get evicted. Well done. Why is all this so hard to understand? What's in people head? Koko the gorilla probably shouldn't be allowed to vote! All the Koko the gorillas that think in an emergency we will "just tax the rich" and we will all be fine are going to get a nice surprise and lesson. Lots of big city folks that don't get enough sleep, play a ton of fantasy games, and drink lots of coffee (its an opoid drug btw), completely detached from reality. If no one makes stuff, there is no stuff. "The rich" don't have a magic pot with enough stuff for every one. Inequality went up with industrialization (wageslavery): link.springer.com So... To increase equality, really smart voters want to hurt business and produce job security? Yes, less business and more wageslavery, that's what is required! www.researchgate.net readersupportednews.org Lmao suckers got convinced that they will die without the government and their only hope is the government taxing the horn of plenty rich. I'll end this here or it will be too long. One last chart: www.vox.com Wow! Wealth inequality was lowest in the mercantile capitalism era! During the time of kings not greedy politicians that lie to get votes! WOW! I never saw that coming! Before "secure jobs". Before "tax the rich". What a surprise! Tax was 99% back then right? No? 1%? LIES! It's so obvious to me. But suckers are too dumb to understand this and shoot themselves in the leg. And I might have to move abroad, because they might start a revolution to get more of the bad things that hurt them (lol). So many people are naive. The rich are not demigods. The rich are not santa claus. The government does not have a magic wand to steal wealth from the demigod rich to create an utopia. Chill out and get your lazy bums to work!
by MrRenev
9
Aged like a fine milk"Health authorities": The virus will dramatically spread indoors. We are banning every large indoor events. Also "Health authorities": Ok the population of West Europe and the United States is 80% urban and most people live in tall buildings. To protect the population we are ordering every one to stay tightly at home in a small apartment inside a large building with hundreds of people. How am I typing this without it being a simpsons episode? The result: Paris had more dead than Wuhan. 759 deaths per million inhabitants (versus Marseille at 149 I think). New York City, total lockdown too: 2000 deaths per million inhabitants (that's really high, 0.2% of the whole city). This interesting statement can be found via duckduckgo. Of course, completely impossible to find it via google. This is what I think: Using some common sense, we know (I hope this is true idk what to trust anymore with all the bs science) most of what comes out is liquid, infected people transmit droplets more than aerosol, so masks will stop alot of that and therefore it helps prevent infected people from transmitting the disease. If they don't touch their mask etc of course. Healthy people wearing masks does not make sense, it won't protect them, and ye with all the humidity you're breathing in here it's an absolute breading ground for all sorts of stuff. Absolutely disgusting. How to get sick 101. People that don't know if they have the virus: there is a small chance they might protect others, and a big chance they'll hurt themselves. In either case the risk to reward is poor, the benefit it would make is so small, it makes close to no difference. A solution: Wear a mask when in tight closed spaces to reassure yourself maybe? change.org. Do your part to cose these rebel states! www.change.org Oh so now there is south carolina too? w/e Let's compare it to neighbouring states. I didn't look at when they got infected, at urbanisation, density etc. I'm not going to write and publish a whole paper either. Hopefully someone will. Quickly looking at the numbers is fun, I'll do a few more that are in the area of the rebel states (no point doing california even thought it is close): This is just a first look but looking at Europe states, France cities, USA states, USA cities, it appears that: - Places with stay at home orders have more deaths in % - Places with higher pop density have more deaths in % - Places with the most severe restriction, compared to less severe, have more deaths in % - Democrats compared to Republicans have way more deaths in % People should end up noticing this. They can't be that blind. At some point they'll figure it out. How this unfolds will be quite fun to watch :) The odds of dying in a car crash or of obesity are still astronomically higher and no one cares. California is strongly fighting "fat shaming".
D
by MrRenev
7
Transition to GREATNESS 2/3DJI just like DJT is a good index and canary, showing the situation in general. Lots of small companies will disappear, shops will close, firms go bankrupt, people will go without luxury, but life goes on and only some will grow. Question is, what direction will we go and/or if we gonna be part of it or out of it financially, in the first place! Either way, I got to accept the situation and as always: act accordingly. I'm not into politics, idk if you are a democrat, a conservative or a liberal. More important to stay healthy (and alive) and do something that is one step ahead to a sustainable future. Common sense. So if I had the chance, I would advice to Mr. President to make peace, not war (with China and in general). I would support China, as they will support the US back too 'cause they are just like that. They also are smart and innovative. It's not like the old times anymore, when we said "poor quality because it's Chinese" remember? That's the old times, put it in a history book or something and step forward now. Together. As according to my belief and experience, cooperation feels and works better that hatred, fights and war. Or it's just me?
TVC:DJIEducation
by janfoux