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Depression

What To Watch Before Calling A Bottom (Dow Jones)I've explained why I expected a market crash to occur over and over again during the last year. I'll link those posts at bottom. One of my reasons was the "Great Depression Fractal." This is why I've included the Great Depression chart on the left in this post. It's funny how I kept talking about another Great Depression, well before anyone was putting forth the idea that it could happen so soon. At worst, people were fearing a large recession. Now I hear a lot of speculation that we could quickly enter another depression. It seems so sudden, but it was all there in the charts. What caused this isn't the virus, but human greed and neglect. If our economy weren't set up to oppress the many and benefit the few, we would not be having a crisis right now. The fact that we've gone so quickly into panicking about a depression and quickly into a situation where many people are already out of work (likely fearing for their homes, health, and communities), shows precisely how fragile things were before this all happened. Why do people behave this way, and why are things set up like this? It's because people are so pathetically unaware of their own mortality that they only live for the now. They actively suppress this fear. Screw the future. We don't need to prepare for the worst when we can live our best lives right now! This is why we've been so slow to treat the environment, let alone each other, better. Neglect and the act of withholding is a supreme form of power. It allows us to exert control, while we fear for what we cannot control - our own mortality. So what causes the markets to drop? The people with all the actual money start becoming more conscious of their mortality. In any case, you can see that the setup for how severe the Dow Jones can decline depends a lot on the broadening pattern I said would likely mark the point of no return, before the Dow crashes towards at minimum 12K (got fairly close already), 8K, or even 5K. Based on the broadening pattern when compared with The Great Depression, it seems fairly reasonable to assume that it will test the long term uptrend (red) at some point. I think that's likely to coincide with those 2008 Recession lows, because the bailouts and QE have not solved the structural problems facing our economic system. A drop that severe would probably cause financial institutions to think hard and perhaps reverse course. Unfortunately, if they cannot do this, I think we can end up with a drop similar in magnitude to The Great Depression. The ultimate decline back then was around 90% from peak to trough. In this case, I'm conservatively leaving my lowest possible target around 5K, which is not quite that severe. A decline of that nature may end up resulting from big tech companies finally losing their lofty valuations. Before I call a bottom, I'm going to observe this structure and see how it evolves. At this moment, we've held off a more severe crash. But we're propped up by a significant amount of money printing as we were even prior to the crash. I don't expect this to last long if a major breakthrough isn't achieved with the virus within the next several weeks. As you can see, we're actually holding right above the broadening support (pink), after capitulating briefly below it. If we crash down below it again, and if we test it as strong resistance, I think it's safe to say we will see a further decline. HOWEVER, if the bottom has already been reached (perfectly possible), I'd like to see buy volume come in and support us above that broadening pattern. Again, I find it eerie that the charts present stark similarities between each other, and I pointed this out well over a year ago. Only now are major news outlets saying that we can easily see another Great Depression. Some are even positing that it could be worse. Emotionally, I can see this being the case, since much of what made that period manageable was community entertainment. Now, people are isolated at home, without the meaningful connections they need to feel hopeful about survival and progress. I do really hope we exit this on the right side. I don't want to see the rich abandon those without resources in favor of an even more starkly divided society. I also don't want to see an AI/VR takeover, which could be used to quell the hopeless masses through entertainment. This would create two classes: The money-making class and the zombie class. Right now, dystopian versions of the future really seem possible, but I think it's these fears that tend to keep us on the right track. Let's just hope some action is taken soon. We should all be doing something to make things a little better. That's it from me. Not financial advice. These are just my speculations and ramblings. -Victor Cobra
DJ:DJIShort
by VictorCobra
5
THE PAST IS PROLOGUEThe past is prologue in this daily bar chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average circa 1929, just before the infamous "Black Thursday," October 24th, 1929, helped usher in the most damaging portion, the C wave, of the correction that was to become known as "The Great Depression." Much like today, the 1920's saw a rampant, unchecked rise in stock and land valuations fueled by an omnipresent and still young Federal Reserve System. In his 1955 expose' of the 1929 downturn entitled "the Great Crash," John Kenneth Galbraith famously wrote that "There was far more money flowing into the market than there was intelligence to guide it!" That quote seems apropos today, as we have merely seen the initial "shot over the bow," in this unfolding "Great Downturn." In my opinion, we are clearly on "The Road to Sefdom," as F.A. Hayek so famously warned about in his classic tome of the same name. The parasite, (the government in all its forms, including the Federal Reserve System) have drained the last ounce of blood, (capitalism) out of the host. What is left now is an empty shell of an ideal that many men better than I have fought and died to protect. Over the ensuing years we will march happily down the Road to Serfdom, grasping readily at "helicopter money," and other "fast-passes," to socialism, as one after another "saviors," come forward with their' own particular flavor of totalitarian rule. The veil of socialism will engulf us all if we do not act when the puppet masters prophesize what F.A. Hayek coined as "The Great Utopia." The Stock Market, as well as civilization itself is on the cusp of a monumental turn. "When the course of civilization takes an unexpected turn, when, instead of the continuous progress which we have come to expect, we find ourselves threatened by evils associated by us with past barbarism, we naturally blame anything but ourselves!" Choose wisely my friends!
DJ:DJI
by unforgiven
Technical Analysis Suggests Depression in the United States.This is a monthly candlestick chart of the SP500 from the 2008-09 financial crisis to the all time highs of Q4 2019. As of this writing (April 1 2020 - start of Q2), the market has sold off, bounced, and now begins price exploration to the range lows. If I am right and price tests at least the range lows of our previous range, then we're in for an economic depression. And there's nothing to suggest that price cannot go below a 50% markdown. This is just a first target. It is also important to note that fundamentals agree with the technicals. Jobless claims due to COVID-19 and the governments response are estimated to be many multiples higher than the 2008-2009 housing crisis. Further, the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to near-zero. The economy is at a standstill. Also, investors are not buying long-term government bonds, as indicated by 30 and 50 year T bills rising dramatically. Note also that the market continues to drop as of this writing despite the Fed's massive liquidity stimilus. If the Fed (And the U.S. gov't) can't stimulate a rebound in the SP500/DJI with a $2.2T stimulus, then we're in for really hard times.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by gottimhimmel158
Anatomy of the Great Depression 2020COVID19:CONFIRMED Dear friends, More and more people are starting to speak of a real economic crisis, but it’s not what we should be frightened of. What we should really fear is an economic depression. Economic cycles Every economist knows about the theory of economic cycles. I’ve tried to represent these cycles in a schematic way in the chart above. We see 4 main stages there: Growth, yellow stage Peak, green stage Crisis, red stage Depression, black stage This cyclic recurrence is a natural economic process, which can’t be avoided because of both regular economic processes and exterior factors. There can be many reasons for these cycles’ formation, starting with bursting debt bubbles and finishing with wars, revolutions and epidemics. The main thing common to all these reasons is a demand shock, i.e. the moment when the number of buyers falls sharply. As a result, goods production is no longer demanded, producers make less profits and can’t pay wages, people have less money for buying goods. This is a vicious circle. This picture is very simplified, of course, but it shows the main mechanism of crisis development and the measures that developed countries take in order to avoid severe consequences. I described the measures taken by the US government to combat the economic crisis in my privet analytical article. Now you understand why those $2 trillion were directly or indirectly aimed at supporting consumers. Because consumers are the engine of market economy. Let’s get back to the cycles. We’re currently at the beginning of the crisis stage triggered by COVID-19. A demand shock is now present all across the globe as people have to isolate themselves or they are under quarantine. The depth of the crisis depends on the duration of the quarantine. The longer people stay jobless, the more the load on households and simple consumers will be, the more savings will be spent on food. The more time the consumer doesn’t buy goods, the higher the debt load on businesses is. The higher the debt load on businesses, the more bankruptcies and credit arrears. The more credit arrears, the more load on banks and the higher likelihood of their bankruptcy. This is a vicious circle! Bank failures mean that investors lose their deposits. Lost deposits result in a demand cut. Demand cuts lead to businesses going bankrupt. Finally, we have a huge number of the unemployed, of bankrupt businesses and banks. In essence, this process is the active crisis stage. The state that follows this shock is called “a depression”, when people can’t find a new job and earn their living for a long time. The good news is that after all these terrible times, people are retrained, find a job, set new businesses or reorganize previous ones. In other words, the economy starts reviving and developing. The cycle gets into the growth stage and then reaches a new historical peak. Development cycles of COVID19 and economic crisis scenario The chart above shows the number of coronavirus cases and a future development forecast. As of March 31, the number of cases reached 800,000 worldwide. According to various experts, the peak is expected in May, with a total of 2-3 million cases (bold dotted line). Then the dynamics will slow down through global quarantine measures and the population’s natural immunization. Once the percentage of cases decreases, many countries will eagerly lift lockdowns and restrictions on movement. As a consequence, another wave of coronavirus may take place and last till September. This is the time by which clinical trials of a COVID-19 vaccine are expected to have been completed and then the vaccine will be launched into a series production. Thus, the active crisis stage may last till the end of September, based on this scenario. Obviously, not only businesses, but also many governments don’t have enough safety margin to endure such a long crisis. Considering a high level of globalization and interdependency of consumer-producer chains worldwide, even one country’s default may start a chain reaction. Just remember the Greek economic crisis of 2015 which caused fever in whole Europe. It’s after that case Great Britain got in turmoil, which led to the Brexit referendum in 2016. Evidently, the seats of economic crisis will mainly be commodity-dependent countries, because besides the demand shock related to the pandemic, they will suffer budget deficits caused by a sharp slump of commodity prices, oil prices above all (check this article for my long-term oil forecast). I estimate that low oil prices are a global trend. It’s very likely that commodity prices won’t be growing until the end of 2020, based on the scenarios of pandemic development and its economic consequences. If the worst scenario is realized (red wavy arrow), the Brent price may fall to 9-10 USD a barrel (the support level of 1998). The victims of this double strike will apparently be Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar), CIS countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan) and South America (Bolivia, Columbia). Without even mentioning Venezuela with its long-lasting economic crisis. Start of the Great Depression 2020 The scenario looks quite disturbing. To forecast the length and the depth of the economic crisis, let’s get back to history. A similar economic crash was in 1930, in the times of the Great Depression. The reasons of that crisis were the First World War and the Spanish flu pandemic. The consequences were the US agricultural crisis and the crash of the whole banking system, because the main borrowers were bankrupt farmers. The chart above shows the 12-month time frame for Dow Jones where 1 candlestick equals 1 year. According to the theory of economic cycles, we see: Short-term cycles (2-3 years) - pink arrows Medium-term cycles (7-10 years) - violet arrows Long-term cycles (70-100 years) - red arrows. Surprisingly, the stages of the three cycles coincided in 2020. The last recession year was 2014 when many countries were going through economic stagnation and some countries (Greece with its debt crisis and Russia with its currency crisis) were on the edge of a large-scale crash. That period refers to short-term cycles. Six years have passed since then and a new recession within a new short-term cycle seems natural. The well-known mortgage crisis of 2008 that affected the whole world refers to medium-term cycles. Twelve years have passed since then and again, a new slump looks regular. Ninety years have passed since the beginning of the Great Depression, which perfectly fits into long-term economic cycles. So, we may expect the beginning of the Great Depression no. 2. Conclusion The unfavorable development scenario is confirmed by the theory of economic cycles, so we all should get prepared for the worst. The global crisis, which may result from the Great Depression 2020, may last for up to 4 years and reformat our lifestyles the next 5 years. I’d like to hope this scenario won’t be realized, but obviously, this pandemic is an epoch-making event which affects the whole world and will leave its trace for sure. Anyway, time will tell whether this scenario is true, but I’d like to remind you about a famous Chinese proverb: When the winds of change blow, some people build walls and others build windmills. So, let’s cheer up and think about how to benefit from the situation. Take care of yourself and your money! Subscribe and keep in touch! Best regards, Michael @Hypov
CShort
by Hypov
3
Global Recession Price Targets Recession In the UK we came to the end of the financial year and at this point the end to the first quarter for the global economy. Governments around the world will now declare that GDP our economic production has decreased, and unemployment has increased. We’ve seen all major central banks update fiscal and monetary policy, the Fed has announced a 6.2 trillion stimulus package. S&P 500 has seen the most significant downturn in history. What can we expect over the next coming months? The main catalyst for this recession is global debt, housing debt, energy industry debt, household consumer debt, and corporation debt. This is the everything bubble. It has been further fueled by COVID-19, The pandemic has caused Global quarantines and lockdowns. Consumers are being told to stay at home for a period of 2 to 3 weeks at which point the infection will be reviewed and the quarantine assessed. Consumers and not driving the vehicles this is reducing demand for oil and gas. Consumers spending habits have reduced significantly emphasizing a decline in economic activity. Non-essential Businesses have been closed indefinitely this has had a knock-on effect on people’s jobs and employment. Many are waiting for government funding packages to provide financial support during self-isolation and unemployment. We can see an extortionate amount of government spending with no max parameters in place. Over the next few months we will have to see how cases increase and how companies will be affected we will need to see how cold it is treated and how effective the quarantining is. These quarantines are not a one off I have been implemented to slow the spread of the infection and once they have lifted and the infection reemerges, they will be forced again to Quarantine. Businesses and executives know that this will occur and so will be hesitant to open or continue their business operations, they will be on likely to begin recruitment and re-employment because of this. This has a significant knock-on affect the economic activity. Governments suppressing the spread of infection in order to curve the peak demand on to healthcare services. Health officials are waiting for a vaccine to be developed or for herd immunity, both of these can take many years. All of these factors contribute towards fear uncertainty and doubt in the general public. This is setting up to be a depression, the great depression 2.0 What does this mean for SNP 500 index? For me look at the 2001.com bubble price fell 50% in the bear market. In the 2008 housing crisis the price sale 58%. If we continue this pattern into our current circumstances from our all-time high of around US$3400, we are likely to fall50% again placing the S&P 500 index at 1700, this is the decline of over 1700 points. If we use the all-time highs from 2001 and 2008, We can conclude a resistance for our current downturn of around US$1500. We need support, we can see support at US$1800 in 2014 and 2016 Low’s. And this gives us are likely target price range for this current recession, however if we breach and full-blown resistance of US$1500 I’m confident that we will reach loads of US$800 this sort of drop and contraction in the overall economy will be defined as a depression and it will have significant adverse effects on the globe. Each and every financial crisis governments have attempted to stimulate the economy and we see a short-term correction from the stimulation. By the long time it doesn’t help realistically the sessions depressions and the business cycles will continue to occur because the global economy is built on continuous quanitivie easing and liquidity injections. I hate to be so pessimistic. However, there is optimism for we investors Have the greatest opportunity to enter the markets of multiple industries exceptionally low prices and we will likely see corrections up to all-time high of 2019 US$3,400. Realistically this timeframe is likely to be up to 7 to 12 years until we even get close to that price again. Could we be in the midst of the financial systems collapse?!
TVC:SPXShort
by H_Woodrow
4
mid term outlook for s&p 500 🌈🐻Technicals: - S&P500 broke a long term uptrend and now is seeing a rebound. a rebound was expected given the current level of volatility. I expect the price to get rejected at the long term uptrend line, but a throw-over is in the cards as it would be a perfect bull trap - support boxes are drawn out. these levels are likely contenders for a solid bottom since there should be many buyers interested at those prices. Fundamentals: - the exponential growth of the coronavirus in the US and worldwide leading to economic shutdowns - Saudi vs. Russia oil price war leading to the lowest prices in decades - huge debt burdens, high default risks - historically high valuations (even after the crash) according to Shiller p/e, total market cap to gdp, etc. - unemployment spike, literally highest in history (3.28 million in one week in the US, ~1 mill in Canada) and expected to worse - desperate central banks running out of levers for controlling the economy (interest rates at 0%, currency at risk of devaluation or loss of reserve status if QE is taken too far) - political uncertainty regarding 2020 elections, lack of good candidates, high probability of tax hikes - very similar environment as 1929 before the great depression, end of the long term debt cycle, interest rates hitting 0% Sentiment: - worldwide panic lead by fearmongering media outlets - overall bearish attitudes towards the markets leading to a lack of liquidity - once we break previous lows near $220 on SPY, expect a lot of panic selling My Approach: - dollar-cost-averaging into index funds diversified internationally, still 85% cash currently - higher than usual weight into REITs and emerging markets, US equities still have low expected returns at current valuations - expecting this bear market to last at least 6-12 months, possibly multiple years, no need to FOMO and spend all cash quickly - lots of opportunities for individual stock picking, ETFs are dumping holdings systematically based on the market cap without regard for fundamentals TL;DR: the economy is a shit show & the crash is just getting started
TVC:SPXShort
by delusional
A Different Look at the Market Crash (S&P 500 Priced in Gold)This chart is a weekly of the S&P 500 priced in ounces of gold. The light yellow line is an overlay of the gold price. This view on the market is interesting for a number of reasons: 1) This is the price pattern the S&P 500 would have if gold was still money like it was in the early 1930's. 2) Some people, including me, think the current market crash is most like the crash/bear of 1929-1932, and back then the dollar was gold-based. So charts of the 1930's crash are actually represented like this chart, with the market priced in gold. So perhaps this gold based view of the S&P 500 is relevant when comparing to the 30's crash. 3) Interestingly this chart of the S&P 500 priced in gold shows that the market topped out in Oct 2018, back when the market first had sudden large price drops that made many people (including me) think the bull market was over. As far as gold is concerned, the bull market in equities did end at the end of 2018 and the last year or so has been a few rallies up to lower highs. Based on this view of the market you would not have been fooled into thinking the bull had continued, giving more warning of what was coming. 4) From the chart you can see that back in October 2018 it would've taken 2.46 oz of gold to "buy" the S&P 500 index (if it were a stock). As of today's close it would take about 1.6 oz of gold --a 35% loss from the highs, even with the last few days bounce. The crash and bear market of 1929-1932 took the DJIA down 87% by the bottom. But today's market is unlikely to fall that far because of all the trillions of dollars in bailouts and rescues the government and Fed are doing. All that money created and thrown into everything will certainly devalue the dollar and have many other effects that make it difficult to predict the market. So today's market might not fall as far as the 30's market, but your money probably won't buy as much either by the time this is through. So how do you know what's really going on? I suspect that this gold view on the market will remain more coherent than the dollar view, will better show you how the market is actually doing, and is a more directly comparable to the early 1930's bear market charts. Perhaps this view of the market will fall 87% before it's over (or worse).
SP:SPXShort
by MystryBox
7
These next 2 weeks will determine the future of our world.What a crazy time. The Fed is now offering 1 trillion dollar repos every day for 30 days, and we are seeing a rush into the US Dollar. Things I have been predicting. As the dollar gets stronger, the worse the wolds problems become due to the emerging market dollar denominated debt. And we may not have seen anything yet... These next two weeks will determine the future of the world/civilization for the upcoming 6-18 months. On the social scale, if this virus growth balloons like Italy, as many have been saying it would, we will see more lock downs in Canada and the US and the damage will be done. When people leave their homes, they will not make eye contact and there will be fear. Social gatherings will not be the same until some sort of vaccine is created. I don't need to say much on the economic side. We are entering a period where many small and medium sized business' are dying. Many corporations will need a bailout, and the governments are now saying they would require equity stake. Industries and companies are being nationalized or will become indebted with loans. Big government and corporations running the world entirely. Digital money will then be implemented and they will use the excuse of preventing bank runs, or the say that cash transmits the virus. Now everything can be tracked and taxed. Watch for this to happen in Europe first. Now I want to talk about the equity charts here, the S&P. This is what I want to see in the next 2-3 weeks. We did close below a major zone on the weekly, so there is a good chance for a drop here. However, I want to guide you to long term trend line from the bottom in 2009 to present day. You can see that we broke below this trendline which has been on the radar for any people. Just applying market structure here, we have closed below the higher low swing so the uptrend is now over. We should expect to see a lower high swing being formed here. This is what I present in the second case. Perhaps we will see a bounce to the trend line, and then next week, see the decline and break lower creating new lower lows and confirming the lower high. This would mean further downside in this new bear market. In order to nullify this, we would need to break and close above the 2900-3000 level. Technically there is nowhere to go for yield except stock markets so this can play out. However, people are still panicking and running for cash. We will see if the combination of monetary and fiscal policy can ease the fear. These are exciting times we are living in, and I believe more books will be written about these next few years than any other time period in history. But I must warn we are entering a period of big government. Debt will be used to bail these companies out and nationalize them as I have discussed. Remains to be seen if this money will also be used to buy up assets which would put us in entirely managed markets.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Uncharted-FX
1
My worst case scenario for ASX200 $XJO Hello investors and traders, Warren Buffett famously said, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." I have seen this quote everywhere on social media last few days/week. Retailer investors are being so GREEDY right now and buying stocks because it is cheap...This tells me we are nowhere near the bottom. Learning from bitcoin, market bottoms when people are in depression and give up on investing because they are scared or have no money left. As mentioned last week, we need to close above the 200 MA LOW on the monthly chart in order to have a chance of a quick recovery (4885). Currently we are below this line, so let's prepare and assume we have close below this. Here is my WORST CASE scenario for ASX 200. We start the 3-9 TD sequential correction phase and head towards 2500. The catalyst for this to happen is an Australian recession or even a depression. What would you do if this is the case? What are you going to do to protect your portfolio/wealth?
ASX:XJOShort
by johninvest17
1
Are things that bad? World can either burn or not. Very important: This is DJIA only! There were some pretty huge companies back then... I don't have the comple market cap / wilshire 5000 to gdp since 1900, can't find that. Price to earnings is best I have. 2000 had the all time record high with all the start ups and all the new stuff going on that wasn't making money yet, doesn't mean it was the worse crisis ever. But it is 1 more thing to look at. Earnings can drop and price to earnings go up without price going up. + There is also the debt, but debt to gdp isn't even that historically high... Situation is less tense when prices aren't so extended and people can pay their rent. But also the populace easilly gets entitled, and wants every thing to go up all the time... If you want more, do more. All of today's entitiled lazy useless millenials won't get their free stuff, and some say they'll do a revolution, but what revolution? They want free stuff because they are lazy. If they had what it takes to start a revolution then they would have what it takes to survive by themselves. Before the great wagecucking revolution in the early 1800s, people were self sufficient, there were still revolutions when the weather was bad and the economy too and they were getting hungry. The US revolution started as a rebellion against a tax, what happened here? After 50 years of bear market the british ended up having to get real money somewhere? It always catches up, the people support the government not the other way around. If the government tries to bail out every company (because everything will crash) THEN things will get very very bad. "In 1773, the British Parliament passes the Tea Act, a bill designed to save the faltering East India Company from bankruptcy". Amazing idea, aged beautifully! The majority of the population is incredibly stupid, hence they look to governments for solution. Ye great idea, a nation can tax itself into prosperity as well all know. And printing money is THE solution, this is why Zimbabwe today rules the world. The mighty nation of Zimbabwe, simply saying its name causes fear in many. I'm definitely not laughing right now. Look, till now the FED has been able to print trillions of magical imaginary money because the usd was in high demand and there were shortage fears even. When that stops, OR if they print more and more at a faster rate, to try and bail out every one in the US (foreigners are doing the bailing, someone has to provide support), then it will get terrible. Most of the US greatness and standard of living comes from the rest of the world using the dollar as reserve currency, if the FED & government gets greedy and tries to bail out every one, IT IS OVER. Russia has already been stacking gold lmao. With populism (Sanders, Trump) that pop out in 2016 and is still growing, it is likely those extremely idiotic ideas become reality, so... the world will drop the dollar standard and that will be the end of the USA. I hope no WW3, if those rich entitled lazy bums could die in silence, would be great. Deflating the bubble and helping the debt cycle reset will be harder since the USA printed so much magical money, but it is possible they can help soothe things out by printing a bit, not too much, and not trying to bail out every one. With the coronavirus they have the perfect scapegoat. The population is stupid enough to think the coronavirus is a mega apocalypse so they can play on this to explain the incoming depression and people could be understanding. If every thing goes well the USA and the world even can experience a golden era. If everything does not go well civil war! I would laugh at the us going socialist and collapsing but the problem is they have a large army with a big projection ability, and at the present day they have a stockpile of 4000 nuclear warheads, and I don't have a bunker yet. I don't want socialism to spread to europe either, I don't want more martial law, I don't want 90% taxes. Well I guess I can just leave and go to another country, but if a madman becomes us president and drops the tsar bomba in every major city, every one is fubar. I'd love to see the world burn, but not while I am living in it. I think the most likely scenario is that regular hard working wageslaves eventually see their standard of living go up, some companies will go down some people will get fired and people will whine about it but it is good: vulnerable companies die to make place for new better ones, and people will find a new jobs eventually. As a result of the great depression unemployment went from an average of 6% to 20% in 4 years but then it went back down and below as fast as it went up. The only danger is this short violent period where companies fail and lots of people lose jobs, they still have to buy supplies during these few years. If we can all pass that period using the tools at our disposal (but not abusing any or it will make things worse), all can end up beautifully. The only fear is are governments and central banks competent? (spoiler: not they're not): - Removing non essential or even wastful spending (population has to tighten their belt a bit & accept times are a little harsh) - Offer solutions to reduce debt burdens - Take form the rich to give to others - Printing money at central banks All of these solutions have to be used intelligently: - Reduce spending but do not take it too far. You cannot tell people to stop living and only eat potatoes for 5 years or enjoy the consequences. - Reducing debt / helping idiots that borrowed too much: they might deserve to get punished but life isn't fair. Now debt must not be forgotten entirely, maybe reduced or interest goes away, or postponed... No idiotic "I'll pay for all student debt" and other nonsense. No complete defaulting. Nations that defaulted ALL suffered dire consequences. Plus vulture capitalist end up going after them anyway (arguably they do more good than harm also). - Take from the rich to give to others: take some of what they have because they can afford it, but it is unfair. Also the rich are getting their wealth destroyed by the crash already. And people still resent the rich and are ungrateful. If a dumb government makes a 99% tax or confiscates everything the rich have, or any idiotic idea, people WILL starve to death. Most politicians that have ideas like this cannot make a simple multiplication, understand basic concepts... AOC for example, AOC teachers literally suggested she goes to a "special class". Man when you have unironically retarded politicians taking decisions this important... Bad things happen. - Printing money: it helps. But overdo it and Zimbabweeeeeeeeeee ;) Educating people about this would help alot: if they know what needs to be done and understand the basics, the odds of a nutcase with dumb ideas to enter the government and then pass laws & orders that make no sense is decreased. A bubble can deflate with or without a world war. The right decisions have to be made. Regardless of the world burning or not, the rich and dumb fomo buyers (tesla) will get rekt :)
TVC:DJI
by MrRenev
1
THE ONLY CHART THAT MATTERS!Today I made a video called 'BITCOIN vs STOCK MARKET BUBBLE 2020' (link in signature) - Inside a month we have nearly liquidated more assets than what was lost during the entire .Com bubble! There is a chance to catch within a few months around 16-17k - however - the market won't fully be recovered and healthy again until we do a full reset all the way down around 12,000. If that indeed happens then by the time its all said and done Wall Street would have lost more money than the .Com Bubble and Great Recession combined! But hey at least the charts show that 2029-2031 should be booming again! Peace & Love - BK
TVC:RUTShort
by bdkelly1203
Did The Everything Bubble Just Pop??Inside a month we have nearly liquidated more assets than what was lost during the entire .Com bubble! There is a chance to catch within a few months around 16-17k - however - the market won't fully be recovered and healthy again until we do a full reset all the way down around 12,000. If that indeed happens then by the time its all said and done Wall Street would have lost more money than the .Com Bubble and Great Recession combined! But hey at least the charts show that 2029-2031 should be booming again! Peace & Love - BK
TVC:DJIShort
by bdkelly1203
3
The markets are sick with their own virus. I have been trying to avoid the doom and gloom media as much as possible. I prefer logical information without the sensationalism. On February 24th I posted a short position on the SPY, I hope you were able to exit at or near that time. On this weekly chart for the SPY we see trend lines for the highs and lows going back to 2008 (white lines). This weeks action broke through two support layers. The first one near $250 was a very crucial support in my opinion. This support level goes back to the financial crisis of 2008 and has provided supported for three selloff phases since 2008. This week broke the $250 support level and then some. The yellow line at $237.36 was the reversal point for the Oct. 2018 selloff. For most of the week, price was bouncing off this support. Today's afternoon selling broke this support. The next confirmed support level that I see is in the $210 range. Economic conditions are going to get worse before they get better. The global economy is screeching to a halt. I recommend learning to short the market with cheap long put options. Long puts automatically give you a max lose situation as you can only lose what the option cost, nothing more. This strategy leaves your cash on the sidelines and still gives you upside. The upside on options can also be very lucrative. If you have sold most/all of your positions, I recommend keeping most of that money on the sidelines. Investing in cheap long puts is a great way to hedge your long positions or to short the market and make money. Most retail brokerage firms don't want you to know how to short the market, they expect you to be the lambs to slaughter when the markets shift. This is a large market shift that large investment firms are most likely raking in the cash as they short the market. The two indicators below are the Cash in/cash out Report (CICO) and the Cashflow. Both of these indicators are free to use on Tradingview. The CICO measures the sum of new money in and out of the market. Cashflow is measuring the change in close price x the volume, it acts like a digital on/off electrical signal. I am not affiliated with any news outlet or investment service. I love programming and I hate the financial wealth gaps in our country. I have lost large sums of money in the market, I wanted to give up because of it. Instead my goal is to create free software and indicators designed for you to take your hard earned money back from the greedy hoarders at the top of the financial food chain. There is a small group of very rich people getting richer during this crisis while millions are literally worried about life and death. Some call this capitalism. However, this selfish mentality confuses me. I hope you stay physically and financial healthy during this time of crisis.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Johnny_Nickles
2
Long Term Spy Prediction - COVID-19-> Economic Depression(maybe)If the rally at the 61.80% fib level does not rally hard enough we will certainly see a farther downturn. There is a coronavirus cure being talked about and trials in Australia start at the end of March. China is already using the HIV and Malaria drugs to combat the respiratory symptoms people have with success. However, it takes a long time for drugs to go through testing so by the time it is complete the damage will already be done. At the beginning of the outbreak and quarantine I believed there to be signs of a 75% pullback on all gains made in 2019, it has already pulled back 100% on the year. The overconfidence in the markets after a 10 year upturn is what caused this in the end. Now though there will be a slow down in consumer buying in the market as well as in spending on consumer goods. Debt is still at an all time high and soon unemployment will jump through the roof regardless of a cure or not. With people unable to pay their bills and unable to find jobs they will be unable to spend money. (I know life changing ideas) I may be too short term on this prediction but a 75% pullback in all markets is entirely possible. If this were to happen in such a short time frame we could see a market crash that rivals 1929. The key to this insane idea is that this is a global pandemic. This is the first time the world has ever quarantined itself and we were not prepared. I see this worst case scenario occurring end of April or mid May. This would also be the last chance for recovery. www.dailymail.co.uk en.wikipedia.org www.ted.com Bill Gates Predicts the Outbreak
AMEX:SPYShort
by skimkings2
3
Tin Foil Hat Time BabyWhats up Traders - If you're waking up today and starting to get worried about the near term United States Economy .... welcome to the party. Oil Prices are in Shambles and we're heading into a recession which will command significantly reduced Oil Demand Gold is falling from the sky (no not literally) The FED has lowered interest rates to zero The FED has recently fired hundreds and hundreds of Billions at the Economy to keep it liquid - and more will be needed Equities have fallen 30% Monetary Policy across the globe is failing (DYOR) What I think We should Reasonably Expect: Unemployment to increase in the ensuing months. Inflation was beginning to show itself naturally. Reduced Rates (post / virus panic) will only exacerbate this. A quick and healthy Economic Recession as (likely) our best outcome. People will begin to default on debt. Extent to be determined. Students will begin to default on student debt at increased rates. Universities that have popped up across the country will begin to bankrupt as students run screaming away from the overpriced education system. Corporations will begin to default on debt as we enter recession If you dont think massive increases in Personal and Corporate Debt (relative to GDP) was a cause for the Roaring 10's .... yes the Roaring 10's .. not to be confused with the Roaring 20's bull market....Do you at least agree that it was a cause for the 1920's? The Preferred Platitude, often for me, ' History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but it often rhymes' - Twain I fear and plan for the worst...which the picture Im painting certainly is... I'm not predicting a depression, or WW3. . . . Im just saying, the ground on which we stand is familiar, it is shaky . . .. and we must proceed with extreme caution. The 1930's gave birth to Extremist / Nationalist Politics. Do you think that may be a condition of our 2020's? Are we already seeing that with Donald Trump, the Death of the 'Establishment' and the rise in popularity of candidates like Bernie Sanders? Do Millennials Trust in a 'Free' Market that has capsized 3 x in 20 years? If they do, how quickly and readily does that happen? -Nixxx Sources: houseofdebt.org www.quora.com seekingalpha.com
DJ:DJI
by WillNixTrading
4