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Depression

I would like to copyright this formationThis is not in nay book afaik. So I am claming it for myself. I would like for it to be called "Bitcoin is a ponzi" top, or you can call it "Bitcoin hater pattern" if you prefer. Interchangeably. On the higher top the price has to go back to the rectangle area for it to be valid otherwise it's just a correction followed by continuation higher. Winrate is pretty good. But on the other side of the ring is the plunge protection team, making the rich richer, buying time and convincing people the economy is doing great. Since people attribute the economy to the government... The great depression of the 2020s gonna be lit. I am trying to sum up all that is waiting for us that is "unforeseen" by the sheeple: Rise of socialism & facism. US civil war India-pakistan war Europe & japan aging population & migrants issues Euro ww 3 maybe China (civil) wars Dying vultures (plagues propagation) SA NAZI Polluted water Not enough water for everyone Running out of phosphate fertilisers Loss of Arable land Food chain gets broken with global warming etc People angrier with heat waves IQs keep falling The US keep declining and cannot protect surrounded Israel anymore The Samson Option Big antisemitism with all the protection the jews have (can't criticize them), all the pedos, the rich & powerful Africa population triples and they keep killing each other but they get bigger weapons eventually maybe nukes Genocide in south africa (migrants / whites / blacks other than bantu) Sweden just explodes and implodes Russia takes over europe while the US are busy, as their demographics get worse, they get desperate China attacks Japan China takes over the philipines South America just going to get worse and explode
TVC:DJIShort
by MrRenev
6
Welcome to the great depression of the 2020s. It is starting.Summer is over, childrens are forced back to school, and policy makers and money movers are back. Going to try going to the point here. And just going to look at the west (NA & Central + North + West europe) and south east asia. Africa is pointless, and then I do not want to look at every country russia north africa australia etc there is too much to look at there's probably some interesting places and companies (or will be spread a little every where). South America is probably rip also. There are alot of things so I'll use bullet points. I will try listing most of the major facts. > Long Term + IQs in the west have dropped around 15 points since the 19th century. Which is huge. An average person today would be mentally retarded back in 1870. In particular the drop has accelerated since 1975. The smartest people on the planet now are in SEA, by a small lead, not enough to go all in invest there. + Huge waves of migrants in the west never seen in history. + Aging population in the West and Japan. + Biggest debt ever (and lowest rates, even negative), everywhere almost. + Due to low IQs and tech advances, people have a harder time adapting. People are getting dumber while jobs are requiring more intellect... + End of the communication Kondriatev Cycle. + Crowded planet, Polluted planet, Ressource Exhausted planet. + Possible end of an ERA started in the west with first renaissance (including finance) in north italy, then conquest of the world/new world, tech advances, industrial revolutions, and in this 3rd millenia first few years it went absolutely parabolic, adoption curves are vertical, and everyone thinks it won't ever end (LOL!). Looking VERY similar to Rome. Actually the exact same. Same inflation, same migrant waves, etc. + Very low Testosterone levels in the west also. No babies. Priorities changed. Paradigm shift. Check the new field called biohistory. + Central banks have gotten too much power, and their monetary policies make no sense. + World trying to "cheat" and fast forward the economy, and over consumption of every thing. Just an idiotic mentality. > Medium Term + Debt not planned on getting better. Here is the ridiculous CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook: www.cbo.gov + As suprising as something that unbelievably dumb is, "people" (disgraceful sub-humans) praise governments that were running during great economic times, and blame those that were around during recessions or depressions. It's so stupid it hurts, it even hurts to have to lower myself to acknowledge this, but things are as they are and what unbelievably stupid sub humans think (if we can call it thinking) has consequences. And the consequence is governments want to postpone recessions and pump the economy up... Plunge protection team is really ridiculous (USA Europe China all have theirs)... + The 90% are getting poorer, the income and wealth gaps are as big or bigger than in 1929. + Of course socialism and facism are getting cool again. Especially socialism. Inequality + much stupider simian beasts... + Price to Earnings at 1929 levels, highest they ever got (apart from 2000 but those were all growth stocks) + Price to GDP (buffet indicator) at highest level... + Bond rates are so dumb. + Social justice insanity, it doesn't even make sense most of the time. + Magic Internet Money ponzi schemes symptom of the problem(s) and absolutely ridiculous. > Short term + Hong Kong exploded. + Sweden (swedistan they say) going kaboom. + LA.... is full of drug addicts, crime everywhere (criminals get super light sentences), homeless everywhere, ultra high inequality, they have medieval diseases that even india does not have, it's a complete dump full of typhus carrying rats, and trash, I could go on. Complete dump. Ridiculous. + Political divide in the US is so high now... 1/3 of casual citizens and 2/3 experts think a civil war is imminent. + etc... + And this: Q4 is the best period for trading, I will make a separate idea for this, during this week. And September-October is usually the period when the stock market falls. Here are a few examples: Black Monday 1987 ==> Oct. 19, 1987 "Black" days before the 20th century ==> Sep/Oct also... I think I made an idea on this a while ago... Not going to look for it. Big crashes and bad things happen in this period very often take my word for it. (This should be known). > Prediction for the next 5 years * Q1 2018 to mid 2019 was a period of uncertainty (well not if you have been following me, I have been very certain of what was going on). September or October will mark the start of the great depression of the 2020s. Do not expect CNBC to talk about this, or maybe they'll have some guests they consider excentric that claim this, but the "pros" will only be aware the depression started somewhere in 2020 or even 2021, and the mainstream even later than that. In 50 years of course we will trace back the beginning to the next days... * The indices are just numbers. The master manipulators probably do their best to "keep numbers up" but it will all go down any way. For example if the indices numbers are up DOUBLE but inflation is 500%, they are not really up. They probably just try their hardest to keep numbers up for the sake of having numbers up. But everything collapses regardless. I would not go short with so much really stupid manipulation. Indices fall, Trump gives a call to the central bank and banks "to talk about something else pinky swear" and then numbers go up the next day... Can go down regardless. If the clowns running the show force the numbers to go up they will just keep making things much worse. I am talking about destroying the United States of America in a record short time. But still... I don't see a short... Numbers can be artificially proped up while real things get worse. I only do short term anyway (1 day to 5 weeks). So it's out of my field of expertise anyway... Just too much manipulation and random factors for me. I think in longer terms only buy and hold or get out and wait for a turn is the way to go, speculating in particular short is better shorter term not that interesting long term. Just my opinion. * Currencies I expect to become much more volatile soon. Yay! Dollar probably won't be a safe haven this time. It is already overpriced since Europe and China have been devaluing their currencies to the limit. * Cryptocurrencies will be a big hedge against the depression. Nah I'm just kidding they are going to zero of course. Not going to go into details check my crypto ideas + common sense. * I am not sure about commodities. Gold and Silver go up, Oil down maybe? Agri will be more volatile. Copper down, less is being done, less demand...
TVC:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
13
About income inequalityAh, the great nations of Ethiopia and Afghanistan. Since very low income inequality is, according the far left, the absolute peak of human development, then we can all agree that Kazakhstan, Ethiopia, Afghanistan are among the most prosperous nations of the planet, absolute powerhouses! Every single country that tried "equality" has failed utterly. The ones that lasted longest were those with fossil fuels, and the ones that today can make it work are countries with fossil fuels (Norway...). Sweden is not a complete failed state, this is the socialists of america main point. They have only been socialists for 10 years LOL. Sweden is not a complete failed state YET. They have already began to decline and they barely just started with socialism... On the other side, things are not better. The most inequal countries are in latin america and sub equatorial africa. (en.wikipedia.org www.indexmundi.com) Here is the top 10: You may be aware of the growing popularity of the far right in South Africa (that openly talked of killing all whites). Who are these top 10% in most of those countries? Well that's easy. The ruling class and the ones holding the guns. As long as the military are well armed and well paid, the rulers can keep taking everything for themselves... Great places. But they are idiots. They keep 99% of the pie. But the pie is tiny. Not worth it. The USA, with their current culture of overpaying CEOs, giving them golden parachutes, paying the shareholders and ignoring the workers, short term profit more more moar, are drifting towards that extreme inequality... Long term is NOT bullish. The answer of the people of America was voting for Trump in 2016, and nearly having Bernie Sanders run for president on the left (Hilary barely beat him ~55% to ~45%). And things have gotten way worse. And until the USA goes back closer to the center things will just keep getting worse. The right is blaming foreign nations & illegal migrants, the left is blaming straight white men. Both are (obviously) wrong and stupid. Apes. Sweden, or some call it Swedistan, are the generational short at the moment, until something changes... I think the far right is on the rise there, maybe they jump to the other extreme. But I doubt it. Long term outlook is "it's going to ZERO", keep an eye on politics there. A change of mentality can change things very rapidely. When Germany went full fascist in the 1930s their currency and economy recovered faster than you could say "why is the margin clerk calling me". Of course we all know what happened after that initial short term relief euphoria. Turkey is in a downtrend and have high inequality but I am not sure about the situation there. I want to see what happens after Erdogan. Maybe same as Venezuela after Chavez? XD RIP. It seems logical to me that the perfect situation is in the center, but even if this is not obvious enough, history has shown that this was the most prosperous environment. Economists agree that inequality is good, and necessary. Anyway, how is the guy that puts groceries in bags getting rewarded the same as Henry Ford fair? Lmao. It does not matter if you agree or disagree with politics, really hate the far right NAZI and do not want their economy to go well (short term). If you ignore facts and numbers the margin clerk will call you regardless of your views ;)
TVC:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
4
The 10% have never owned a bigger piece of the USA pie."Let's Bail out the banks that gambled" - Federal Reserve, 2008 "Ok" - George W. Bush, 2008 "Let's send everyone to uni and push them into debt for the rest of their lives" - Idiots I mainly used the fed for my sources. I also used the site statista. The internet is so useless it is all mixed up and often contradictory, so I just stick to those... They don't say everything thought... Anoying. I wish I was running my own fund and had people doing this for me :D If I ever do I won't post on tv for free I guess. Numbers for 2018 & 2019 are not out but I bet how much wealth the top 1% have got to 40%! It was over 38% in 2016. The rich (10%) got richer in the past decades but... The 90% did not! They even got poorer! I am not here to bring solutions or explain why we got there. What I am here to do is speculate on wether or not this will explode (yes duh), when (who knows, maybe soon), how big the fireworks will be (huge), and when to buy (later) - if ever. I sure do not think it is a good idea to invest now... And I do not want to make a super long post also. The GINI index is not as high, but I am not sure if this is accurate and how it should be interpreted. No wonder: - Socialists in America are back to 1940 levels - Gambling on cryptocurrencies became so popular (21% of students used their "no question asked" loans for this...) - White nationalism on the rise too, but not as big and dangerous as stated by the biased mass media (+there is a demographic change scaring them) - So much divide tension violence (lethal and non lethal) Can't predict the future. Civil war? United states separated in 2, 3, 4, 5 countries/unions? Recovery? Fall just like the soviet union? I think there will probably be a big depression. But other than that we'll have to wait and see what happens on an investing perspective. Meanwhile central banks forcing people to invest... When everything is in a bubble. They're just so cancer. If their heads end up on spikes I'll laugh, their own faults. The crazy part is not the wealth gap, it's that the 90% did not get more income or wealth in the past 35 years! It actually went down! They are even in debt now, living paycheck to paycheck. Not just the poorest 30% are living paycheck to paycheck, even the middle class if we can still call it that. If the clowns running the show lower rates or do whatever to give us more inflation (without wages increases of course) more bubble more inequality more cancer it will end very very badly. Are they that stupid? This HAS to be a conspiracy! These clowns want to create a nuclear war before their death? They're all like 75, wouldn't surprise me. Going to quote someone from Twitter: "Recessions clear out leverage and put inefficient companies out of business, making room for new, more efficient companies (often started by young people) to enter the market. Recessions are vital to long term healthy economy. If you try to prevent recessions you get a depression." So anyway, clearly, as I said since I started posting on this site full of crypto clowns & trolls, populism did go up, things did get worse. We are so not in 2008 or 1987, this is a clear 1930s all over again. Probably worse. So we need a great reset now... And the old people that caused all of this will be gone, how great. People are left with their backs against the wall and with nothing to lose at that point. Well, we will see. Even with negative rates I think now is no time to invest, and "buying the dip" won't be either. Dow could go lower than 10,000 points. We won't see 30k for more than a quarter of a century (unless we see it soon & before the depression collapse duh). Prices will get very cheap. No need to try catching the bottom, might as well make sure things are looking good. There will be bounces, people are going to regret "missing the bottom", there will be calls that the worse is behind us, but the ones buying these "bottoms" will get burned several time until the real one. The most successful investors in the world have understood early that there is no point chasing the bottom (talking about investing, not short term speculating that is different), they rely instead on other indicators (the price compared to value of a business as well as projected value & earnings, dividends paid, potential, risk, global economic & politic outlook, and other things but same idea as what I list here like for example management is important but just because of risk - a dishonest greedy CEO is bad - and projected value/earnings/dividends). In the 60s 70s 80s not sure exactly when but most of that time the economy was crazy good, returns were high, even for leaving money in the bank, dividends were huge, and all this while the middle class was at its best (of course just as in everything there are limits it would not be good if they had like everything). Back in the late 80s when Warren Buffet bought a part of coca-cola they were paying dividends of nearly 15%, 4 times a year. You got your money back in less than 2 years even if the share price went to zero, as long as the company did not stop making money. That's crazy! A strong economy relies on a strong middle class, not a starving indebted one. That's when you invest greedily.
DJ:DJIShort
by MrRenev
5
Stock market could go down 80%? That's not the worse, not close.Be warned, this is going to be gloomy. Well gloomy for unprepared people with a family and that cannot easilly move. As I predicted, things have kept getting worse with populism and all this. We are at a point where people are openly calling for the eradication of Trump supporters, the extermination of whites because "they're all NAZI with concentration camps" (self-awareness of zero here). Well, white men in particular, as I said, they need a small enough percentage of the population to hate. All whites would be too big. So "straight white men that aren't changing gender". It strikes me as unlikely that a complete full blown big civil war will explode is that the average american is so overweight, lethargic, disconnected, careless, blissfully ignorant, it seems unlikely to me that he will get away from his video games and start rioting and fighting. But at the same time, during the US revolution, only about 10-15% of the population did anything, and that is all you need. And when things get bad enough people that don't care will start caring. As far as I know the US has not been this divided for over a century, and these people simply hate each other. People on the left openly calling for extermination of the right, and hundreds of thousands of likes... Pretty clear here... If in 2020 the left gets to power there will be a great depression, and probably people go more and more to the extreme (left). If Trump is re-elected, there will likely be a recession (the negative rates QE situation can't be sustained realistically without bad consequences for another 5 years...), people associate him with the free market, and they will blame capitalism and the right for the recession (remember: people are stupid, and never learn). Just like in the 1930s. People REALLY are stupid and never learn, this is not a meme or some elitist talk, it's just the way things are and always have been. So either way... The socialists of america are now pretty much as big as they have been in almost anyone lifetime. They are bringing back ideas from the 30s already. Literally word for word Goebbels & Stalin quotes. Instead of blaming jews for everything, it's straight white male. Instead of hearing "international jewery conspiracy" you hear "white patriarchy conspiracy". Exact same ideas, only a few words change. Same formula as usual. 1 difference: the people they want to exterminate have guns. Alot of them. So good luck here. Makes you wonder, how come they are so eager to disarm these people? "To stop mass shooting for greater good". Ye right. We keep hearing stories of "damn racist whites" killing people or "aggressively smiling" (didn't make that one up) and then finding out it was actually a leftist, and then the story gets dropped/buried. Go figure. The usual people profit from hate, not just politicians thirsty for power (dems were using hate of black people and mocking the rep. for supporting them 150 years ago, now they use hate of whites to get black voters oh how ironic): Media. Throwing fuel on the fire to get views. Disney. They used to make fun of blacks because it was popular, now they belittle white men because it's the popular thing to do now, their stories are awful, they don't need a story, just be racist and sexist, you'll even get free publicity, and if anyone criticizes your garbage movies + killing the lore? Just call them a racist and a patriarch. Lmao just a few years ago Disney was all "ye we are sorry for being racist in the past but we really changed". Riiight. I hope they end up banned. Over. Disney to zero. It won't get better imo. 1 big reason, other than the coming recession. All kids are going to university now because "they have to" (what a joke). And these places are overrun with marxists bolcheviks and all the filth that the west fought so hard to keep away. Young people are very gullible! All these gullible peons get their heads filled with all kinds of poisonous ideas from people in authority "that kinda make sense when you don't think too much about it and are intellectually dishonest". And also, once 99.9% of people learn something, they really have a hard time letting go of it, even if they find out it was wrong. So what worse than the market collapse, a civil war, could happen, maybe? I see 2 things possibly: - The fall of the west. What the west stands for, all its values, are now held in contempt by "mainstream" (media + majority in big cities): personal liberty/privacy, freedom of speech, capitalism, equality for every one (discriminating people to get equality of outcome is unarguably NOT equality duh), etc. Also btw eventually technology stops evolving and even devolves. - A nuclear winter... I need to add that in Ireland 10Y yields have just gone negative. In Denmark, a bank is now paying people interest for picking up a morgage. It keeps getting worse. You cannot trust fiat currencies, OR cannot trust them for much longer. There really is a drop in IQ also. It's gloomy but at least we can laugh a lot. "Hey? You know how we will get rid of racism? With more racism!" "Hey? Fiat currencies are untrustworthy and manipulated and only backed by a promise by the government and have no intrisic value, you know what the solution is? Fiat currencies that are EVEN MORE untrustworthy EVEN MORE manipulated EVEN LESS backed and have even EVEN LESS intrisic value! Gooo cryptoss!" Lmao I am sure your cryptos will be worth alot in a global totalitarian socialist regime. Actions? Well, if the west falls, then... they will confiscate all that you have anyway. At least you'll get free stuff and won't really have to work. Venezuela had 10 VERY prosperous years before their stupid ideas caught up with them and they started starving. Sweden has not yet collapsed. In the case of the USA thought, well idk... Things are already pretty bad on that side. But at the same time, when the socialists of germany in the 1930s came to power, the economy recovered in only 2 years and everything was bright as long as you were not a homosexual or jewish... Hopefully europe is safe. And people loving outside of big cities aka not like sardines, that own properties (and would like to keep it that way out away from the hands of the government) own guns. A socialist government won't just be able to pick up white men and lock them up, or let migrants poor in and rape go up 50 fold like in sweden. Bonds are awful government or not. So I got to say, all I see is: - For the world outside of countries with socialist risk: get gold and property (careful with excitement if there is a speculative bubble), I just do not see what else can be trusted. - In the USA: Oil your guns. Get PHYSICAL gold. In a safe. Maybe silver too. Properties of course too. Cannot diversify more than this there aren't other options. Bullions, guns, guard dogs. - In Sweden, Hong Kong, Denmark soon maybe: RIP. Sorry. I have nothing positive or hopeful to say so I won't say anything. - For all: Now is probably early, but if lunatics get to power in your country state or union/federation (how do we call it?), if possible store some lasting food. A farm at leats small one is great, and also a bunker, better safe than sorry. Bunker, farm, tin food, water bottles. So to sum up my long term view. I am preventively "short" on: - Freedom - Equality - Stock market - All currencies with no intrisic value - Capitalism - Technology - Obesity I am "long" on: - Guns, if legal where you live - Physical gold (and silver) - Property - At minimum a small farm - Canned/non perishable food - Bottles of water - A bunker I want to end saying that there are currently a few people that live in California that are in the process of moving to Texas.
TVC:GOLDLong
by MrRenev
27
After my civil war post... Let's talk about WW3.TIME FOR SOME MORE APOCALYPSE SCENARIO AND FEAR! Best traders are best risk managers (that the non-initiated see as "overly pessimistic") so you better listen up. There won't be much TA here (only TA is what we know about the US indices and most of that is not even TA). This will disapoint most of the retail but the thing is you cannot evaluate the long term with TA... No one ever did that. TA is for short term mostly, and has very little importance (but not zero) long term. This rambling is all raw, didn't try summing it up or making it clear or anything. You can just read it in diagonal you should get what I mean. Well, the people that misunderstand every thing all the time will misunderstand, and those that interpret correctly will understand anyway, so either way won't make a difference. Sorry for the textwall :p It's old news but remember that "21% of students / students that took loans (can't remember) used the loan to buy cryptos". The student debt problem was already bad enough with lives ruined (so not worth alot of the time), but with this it is squared. 1 in 5 student is an absolute imbecile. Well, it fits with a gauss curve, that's the 1 standard deviation from average, makes sense. Illegal, immoral, stupid. You got those huge numbers, + Beyond Meat Tesla Uber, all these hype companies that are not close to being profitable (10% of those might go somewhere but it is not relevant here). I think this will make the next recession just so much worse. With the "regular" stock market alone, I might be wrong but I got the impression there is not a mania as big as 1929, buuuut at the same time there was only something like 10% of US citizen in the stock market and now there are 50% or more, and with Robinhood it is even worse, so what I am trying to say is the mania doesn't look as bad but it could very well be (also history compresses events same way as watch a foreign country news and you get the impression everything is on fire all the time but when you are there it's not 247 fireworks you know). But with: - how strong socialist ideas are ALREADY - how many people are going to get REKT with IPOs Bitcoin Cryptos... - the wage gap, debt and all that stuff - socialists control EVERYTHING except the PRESIDENCY: * the house of representatives * even in the senate I guess * universities * the media * the "herd" "global" opinion of what is right and wrong * big tech Divide is growing bigger and bigger as the left pushes for more body freedoms. There are pedo scandals again and again. And now that homosexuals, transexuals, aborters, everyone has full rights and even priviledges, we are (really) seing "LGBTQP" P stands for pedo and this is where the conservatives draw the line. It's all about "how much more can they take before they explode". If it looks like I take a side, I am not. I think it is clear I am extremely arrogant with a ginormous ego :p. I see myself above everyone and god chosen one. When things are "too extreme" I notice of course, and cannot support that. It is clear things are scary. And if I was euro-white living in the US I would be worried. I'm mixed race (but really my race is superbeing) so maybe whatever happens either way I am fine OR either way I'm ending in a camp :D I love coinflip. It is not just in the USA really... (the divide and strong hate) WW3 probably starts and happens in europe mostly, again. In europe you got (correct me if I am wrong): - A centrist or balanced gov. in france (they'll surrender anyway so it is not relevant) - Socialists in sweden, denmark, germany (germany is "half" socialist jsut like 1939 with the "national-socialists" sigh) - I do not know about Italy, they have "issues with racism" (or maybe that's the socialists speaking?) but also alot of "social justice" stuff. So idk. - UK right to far-right - Poland Hungary conservative/far right - RUSSIA conservative - Turkey I think far left is on the rise? Maybe far left? - This is hard I need to hire people to analyse this stuff xd When I make it big I'll start a business with a risk management team a politics team and others - North Africa got rid of the islamists and are not crazy in the far left ideas - It all can change of course, but I think this is the most likely direction we are going to - Young generations are all either far left or far right Each side thinks they must save the world from the "tiranny" of the other side. The most ridiculous are germans. I just can smell it. "NAZI germany was an awful part of our past, let's never do this again. Oh look, these anti-white socialist ideas are really awesome, and their hate the mean evil anti-jew socialist nazi just like us. For the fight against nazis that had the same ideas as us but in our case it's different we shall do it!" I think we can talk of mental retardation at that point... Here are the relevant military powers: So pretty much same teams as WW1 & WW2. UK will defend its land by itself, and only allies fighting the germany axis "some random word so it does not sound as bad"-socialists are going to be the soviet union & north africa. Again. Poland invaded on day 1. France surrenders instantly. Italy joins the axis of "good guys for equality and fair distribution of wealth HAHA NICE ONE PLEASE KILL YOURSELVES" OR surrenders instantly. Thanks for playing. Ah 1 difference. Now the USA, the strongest military in the world might be on Germany side. Hurrah... And europe did not give much importance to their military because "it's fine the us got our backs". It can be built up prett fast thought. The USA probably if things go this far will have their hands full with civil war. Gee if the socialists win thought, they will want to start a reign of terror upon the world, freedoms? Forget about those. The west falls. Our only realistic hope is - giggle - RUSSIA. Can you imagine!? WW3 will be fun. I thought of something funny, or let's say interesting. Something like 35% of regular us citizen and >60% of experts whatever that means think a civil war is likely in the next 5 years, so people calling me crazy paranoid and conspiracy nuts for saying it is possible are saying 1 third of americans are crazy soooo, technically they are more conspiracy nuts than me :D WW1 = trenches WW2 = cancer WW3 = urban & technological warfare Europeans are sick of large wave of migrants, the USA too, japan not yet but just wait, china is just doing their thing being a cancerous regime that crushes hong kong rebellion etc, the left and right are hating each other more and more, centrists are considered far right, any one that disagrees with the left is a "horrible person" "YOU RACIST" goodbye freedom. Middle east full war with israel. Sub Saharan africa is full of ebola and ethnic wars, most racist people on the planet (in great part due to the arbitrary border design). India is overpopulated, overpolluted, their ecology is rekt (example: no more vultures which were their only barrier against plagues). So... there is nowhere left to go. Checkmate. You got Switzerland, they are even handing out free bunkers. And Australia NZ. And islands in the pacific with as a bonus far away from nuclear fallout. Seriously, it is incredibly naive to think there won't be wars. There have been wars from hundreds of thousands of years not kidding. And after each war "never again" and blah blah blah. It's just the same story. People have not experienced something in their lifetime, think it won't ever happen. Just think about it. For HUNDRED OF THOUSANDS OF YEARS, rince and repeat "never again" "oh here we go again". It's like a returning joke at that point. Of course there will still be big wars. Lmao the delusion of the people that think there won't be. It's just so dumb. I have no words. I can't explain it, just. so. dumb. Everything is short term anyway. Especially unsustainable socialist regimes. And you can even profit or at least protect yourself from it. The difference now is nukes. Yikes. So as long as we do not destroy the planet... it's fine really. All that can be done is be prepared for the worse cases scenarios: I already said what assets were good in my previous doom scenario idea (focusses on the us civil war): - Physical gold & silver - Property - A bunker with food maybe a guard dog or 2 if you can afford it, because your wealth is worth zero to you if you are dead. Civil war or not, europe WW3 or not, having property and physical gold may be important now, because governements are all devaluing their currencies, printing imaginary fake money out of thin air, negative rate bonds, stock market is in a bubble with the spear tip crypto aka imaginary magic beans money (even worse than central bank ponzi fiat) that clearly shows things have gotten crazy with the general economy, you could call it a symptom. There is probably going to be a big storm, worse than we ever seen. And almost 100% sure there will be something between economic recession as big as 2008 and complete collapse of modern western society + WW3 + nuclear warfare. I want to show this: Right now, unless something crazy happens, the gold uptrend is very early. It could go down again before going up, who knows what crazies in central banks will do, but all rates yields curves are negative, it's crazy already. It is not a guarentee dumb speculative get rich quick money will rush in like in 2010-2011, but this is definitely the sign for me that it's time to consider getting out. Always fine to get out a bit early. That's what smart money does, while morons laugh at them (they're laughing at goldman sachs on twitter for taking profit on crypto "before the very top"). Right now dumb money is excited by crappy worthless companies IPOs and cryptoponzis, and laughing at gold and silver small gains. If it's anything below 100% they do not care.
TVC:GOLDLong
by MrRenev
2
The Great Depression Fractal Returns! (Part IV - Mania)Time for a necessary update on the stock market - namely the Dow Jones Industrial Average. I decided to draw this one using the pitchfork tool, to create parallel channels for accuracy. My other DJI charts were drawn with more of a wedge. This chart uses a slightly different model, so some price targets may be revised from my initial speculations. Back in December 2018, I anticipated the drop and then suggested that consolidation and then an eventual move up would be possible, based on the strength of the bounce. As you can see when comparing the 1920's bubble with the current stock market rally, price action would end up being nearly identical. Without further ado, let me call your attention to the main features of this chart: A) The Main Uptrend Resistance (red) - The DJI has followed this trendline pretty closely since the 1929 crash. Since 1931, that red trendline has served as major resistance in 1937 and then repeatedly between 1999 and 2001. It was also major support in the run up to the 1929 crash. B) First Uptrend Support (light blue) - This trendline has numerous touches, and it has served as more of a pivot area than anything else. It probably has the most reactions compared with any of the other lines on this chart. It was major resistance from 1944-1954, major support from 1954-1969, major resistance again from 1969-1995, and has mostly acted as support (except a brief dip below during the 2008 crisis) from 1995 until the present. Our recent December dump actually bounced perfectly off this trendline. This one is very important. C) Lower Uptrend Support (purple) - This trendline has been respected ever since the bottom in 1932. We briefly slid below it during the financial crisis in the late 70's/early 80's, before staying well above it until we bounced heavily off it in 2008. During an eventual stock market correction, I'd expect this support to be tested again. This line should be watched for any potential growth slowdowns. If the Great Depression Fractal is to complete, we may even break below it. This would indicate a severe period of consolidation and slowed down growth (I actually think this would be healthy). This brings me to the next feature of my chart. D) The broadening triangle fractal (orange) - This is an interesting one. You can see that we bounced twice on a similar triangle prior to the Great Depression (two hammers on the bottom left of the main chart). We also did the same thing in 2002 and then again in early 2009. Trump's election spurred a breakout above the top resistance of the triangle, just as we did in 1925 before our final blow off top. If we are to follow exactly what happened after 1929, the DJI could drop all the way to the bottom triangle support, (indicated by the red finger). This would be a major technical failure, and would cause the DJI to drop out of its long term uptrend, if perhaps only briefly. C) The Blow-Off Top - The Dow Jones rallied from about 150 to 400 - a 2.66X increase once that broadening triangle resistance was broken. If the DJI did the same today, that would place a potential blow-off top target at around 50,000 - give or take a little. The reason I set this target is because the orange triangle was broken at around 18,950. A factor of 2.66 from there is 50,407. This means that the stock market could double up from here in a "mania" phase. I've changed my targets a bit from my previous analysis, because I'm looking more carefully at it. We could also get stopped by that red resistance before reaching 50K. If we break above those areas, I'd actually look for a longer stock market growth period. This would be interesting, as it would go against the economic downturn that almost everyone is expecting. This would mean that the stock market could just continue growing....all the way until another channel resistance is formed. Here is the comparison between the 1920's and present day: 1920's chart, where you can see that we might be about to begin a final bubble phase: Present Day Chart And What A Similar Crash Could Look Like: Anyway, I think the similarities are pretty clear. Whether or not it plays out remains to be seen. Perhaps the economy can figure itself out, and growth can be made in new areas (clean energy/environment, for example). This is a SHORT setup (if that orange triangle support is broken to the downside, but for now we can expect that prices MAY increase for a bit longer (even a couple more years)...barring any major disaster. A disaster could send us down to that purple support sooner. Likewise, this is a LONG setup if the most recent high is breached. I don't expect this to be a long term trade though. I personally don't feel comfortable buying stocks for the long term here. This is not financial advice. This chart is for future reference and is based entirely on speculation and my personal opinion. I'm not an expert - just a hobby analyst. Additionally, I personally believe that many tech stocks are overvalued, and that people might soon collectively lose interest in certain progressing technologies. For example, I think Apple stock is nearing a plateau. As such, I think we're nearing the end of a rally for many tech stocks. I think we've been in a bit of a bubble there for the last 15 years or so. I'm also curious to see how cryptocurrencies end up factoring in to all of this (and whether or not they will become a factor at all). Anyway, that's it for now! -Victor Cobra
TVC:DJIShort
by VictorCobra
5
Bye Bye $DJI *US30 Chart* Monthly TF1 of 3 The DJI has finished a complete three drive on the monthly tf while finishing the three drive of the monthly 4A-5D drive. The Bears were injected into the market on May '11 and have been building since then. $25,000 Phys number is being used as resistance for that price can manage to break above but it cannot close with a retest and a break higher for HH, to tag along with the resistance level at $25,000 an HNS pattern is forming which is a great reversal pattern in the markets. Price is sitting high above the 200-MA during the '08 crash the highs of the year was 45% away from the 200-MA The current highs at $26,961 sit 50% away from the 200-MA. Current MacD shows divergence with LH on the MacD and HH on the charts which shows sign of Counter trend and or Trend Reversal in which I am more in favor of espically with the HNS patter that is sitting at a Phys number resistance level. Personal Note: This can either be the end of the DJI and start of BTC and or DJI can have a major reset down to $2,737 and lower and make a new fresh HL that will lead to the DJI back up to $25,000 and Higher Decades until that will happen
FX:US30Short
by OTIEmpire
Bitcoin Final Touch to Bottom Fractal Continues2019 for comparison: The Hall and Co 2.0 trading indicator seems to be outlining the bottoming fractal (assuming we are already at the bottom). We just had the local push to 4200 area before dumping then rising somewhat to where we are now. If the bottoming fractal continues to hold true then we are going to have a slow bleed for the next month or so until we wick down to the 3200 support area. I seriously doubt it will break but we will have to wait until then before we decide to go all in at the bottom. Look for super high shorts (as high as they were when we dropped all the way from 6k to 3k), since it also seems that going against when people are heavily shorting is intelligent. Shorts are at the ATL area right now, which is where they were at just before the break to 3k from 6k.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by bobjames1
The Great Depression Fractal - Part 3 (Blow Off Top Incoming?)Hey guys! Posting an update on my DJI analysis, since we're close to invalidating the possibility of further weakness (for the time being). As I said in my previous analysis, it was best to remain on the sidelines after the bounce from the 21000 area, since it was fairly strong. In addition, I indicated the possibility that we'd actually break the previous high, since this would still be in keeping with my great depression fractal. In fact, I was actually MORE concerned about a further rise. This actually makes me even MORE worried, as I think the crash will now end up being much more severe, once we've officially topped out. I actually hope we find resistance here and drop soon, for the integrity of the market. IF we don't break down here and make a higher high, I expect us to rally at least to the top of the GIANT uptrend channel (the resistance there is real - just look at my chart). This currently lies in the 30000 area. If we break that resistance, we will likely have an even larger rally, and we will have to create a new long term channel. As you can see, in the late 1920's, we rallied higher before the final 90% drop. Between February 1927 and July 1929, the DJI rose 233% from about 167 to 384. This means that we could indeed rise up to somewhere between 60-63000 before a huge collapse, if we break the recent high. This target is well above the channel resistance though, so a rise this extreme might be unlikely. I think 30K is more realistic. Either way, this would be an enormous trading opportunity, but it's unfortunately NOT what I wanted to see in the market. I would have preferred a recession now rather than later. This is far less healthy, and it just goes to show that humans have not learned to stifle their greed, and history may indeed have to repeat itself. This final bubble phase may be led by a potential Weed bubble (I can already see major news outlets starting to incite retail FOMO into this sector, even though the ideal buy in point was any time during the last two years). Anyway, this isn't as long-winded as my previous chart. That analysis speaks for itself. This is not financial advice. This is purely my opinion and for educational purposes only. -Victor Cobra
DJ:DJI
by VictorCobra
BTC: Indicator Showing Potential Bitcoin BottomI was granted access to the Hall and Co Trading 2.0 indicator. This is a weekly (W) indicator for bull periods that show buy areas , targets , and stop-losses . The BSO signal forms on a weekly candle, and when it closes it indicates a buy opportunity. However when used with the BTC daily (D) chart it seems to show where the peaks are, and interestingly where the top was. Now if we look back to 2014 we can see that something similar happened that is happening now: a lack of a daily BSO for a long time. In 2014 between the last BSO and the capitulation final bottom was 1.5 years, then 3 month later another BSO. Using the same logic, then we should see a final bottom in late February/March (1 month time roughly speaking), which should take us to the 2xxx level that everyone thinks we are going to. This also ties in with the wedge and decreasing volume we are in currently. Last time this happened we crashed from 6k to 3k due to the nonexistent volume. However, this bear should technically take longer than last time due to the maturing market. You can ask TomHall for him to grant you access to the indicator.
by bobjames1
Month-End Continuation & MoreSame idea as in previous chart. This is zoomed in to show the main points of resistance. 2 areas of concern with rising wedge in these recent times and stretched RSI. Very likely turnaround point in the next week or so. If it breaks past the fib line, then there will assuredly be snubbing right at the resistance line set by the previous peaks. The overall trend aims downward still just with greater range for volatility. The broad chart shows areas of potential bounce from the long term trends set from the previous 10-20 years. Intruding beneath these points will violate extremely long term sets of support. 2 are depicted here from the 'line 1' and 'line 2'. I'm making a "why not" prediction as far as the timing with the green line I'd crudely drawn in our future. Seems as though that historically, the steeper climbs give steeper falls, and the more gradual inclines will mirror a gradual descent. We are in an era of just the opposite. Short periods of time with rapid ascent. So, I'd imagine just the same with the coming down from our highest high at nearly 27,000 pts for the DJI. Though I have no crystal ball, and I could be painfully wrong, this seems passable to me. Consumers still have the power to extend themselves for longer than we can predict, and the mere culture of my country can exhaust every bit of leverage capacity in ways not seen before. It very well could be that we climb out of these slows and right up past the highs to reclaim new territory and keep this sick machine turning for another half-decade, and I would be equally unsurprised, but I have no doubt that what we are doing now has incredible consequences.
DJ:DJIShort
by thehoplite
Are we headed on a 10 year BEAR market?Germany the 4th largest economy is about to go into a recession, UK collapsing on the face of the Brexit, France government at the edge of destruction, Italy is bankrupt, Greece is bankrupt, China could very well be in a recession as we speak, Venezuela is in turmoil, Honduras, Guatemala, Argentina and many other south American countries are bankrupt. The USA now showing signs of a weak economy. Is this the beginning of the next 10 year bear market?
SP:SPX
by TheKingOfAces
The Great Depression Fractal Part II - A WarningI have a lot of thoughts to express, so I apologize if this is rather long. Since my first DJI analysis and short setup, we have dropped a good 14%. There was a chance that we could rally higher, sort of like we did before the Great Depression, but we've broken the bullish structure. Until we see any movement above the 26000 area, we can assume we will be in a bear market. I've read some articles trying to assure people that everything is okay, and that this sort of correction is normal. And yes, under CERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES it would be considered a standard correction. However, it's extremely important to note WHERE this drop has occurred, in relation to the long term trend. That's why the log graph is so important. My first DJI chart illustrated what a WORST CASE SCENARIO may look like, if the Great Depression fractal plays out (circled in green). What could cause a crash this severe, you may ask? I will argue that the bull market we've experienced since the 2008-09 crash has been artificial. The crash was meant to be much deeper, from a technical perspective, since we had made a lower low. Now we must reap the rewards of an economic system that is built on smoke and mirrors. I think this upcoming crash will, in the short term, cause a lot of pain. However, I believe that, in the long run, it needs to happen if we are going to survive. The overall trend throughout history has been towards a more global, unified society. A number of forces are trying to work against this right now (populist movements in many major countries like The United States, Great Britain, and Brazil). I think these movements will fail, resulting in a restructuring of our global financial system, amongst other things. For the short term, we can expect somewhat of a bounce. In my previous analysis, I suggested that shorting the breakdown of 24000-23000 would be a good r/r trade. We have some support at 21500, so we could see some buying at these current levels, especially with the RSI looking pretty oversold, even on the monthly timeframe. This bounce, if it occurs, will likely be quick and violent, enough to wreck shorters. It could carry us all the way back up near 23000. If a bounce does not materialize, we will likely head straight down to the next support in the 18300 area, where we will need to see how the market reacts in order to gauge momentum. In the long term, I think this will be a severe crash, with a target at MAXIMUM of near 13000. This would complete a 50% correction, which would be considered "healthy." However, I think we are about to witness something far more drastic, and I think we will need to at least test the lower bounds of this giant uptrend channel we've been in since we bottomed in 1932. Human society has changed so much in the last 100 years that we've hardly been able to adapt. Everything is easy for us now, and all we do is buy buy buy, even if we don't have enough money. I can't tell you how many people I met in the last year in the U.S. with less than $20 in their bank accounts who still wanted to spend money. I worked in direct sales for a while and plenty of potential customers handed me their debit cards, happy to part with $30, only to realize that they had no money in their account. I think people must be starting to become bored with all this meaningless buying. They don't know what to do with themselves. Even dating has become a tedious activity, and people are just getting lonelier, with marriages declining as well. It's only a matter of time before people wake up and realize that there is something VERY wrong. Only so much innovation can happen before we become complacent and realize that there must be something to life other than buying things. If one thing doesn't bring people happiness, eventually they will do the opposite. I believe this is the underlying reason why the expectations for growth have been diminishing. We're realizing collectively that everything is fabricated, and that the thousands of dollars we spend on Mac computers really doesn't make much sense, or bring us much happiness in the long run. I think tech will be valued less and less until it gets much cheaper because it is no longer "new" or even "necessary." I also had a conversation with a friend over the summer, and he said that he thought tech would just continue to grow exponentially without slowing down as we innovate more and more. If the majority of people believe this, it's clear we've been in a bubble. I had a couple of conversations with strangers this past year, while stocks were still rallying. I met someone who made thousands trading recently and I told him Apple was probably going to drop soon. He asked me why, and I said because people will take profits, and $1 trillion doesn't sound like a number that should be associated with an individual company that hasn't really been much of an innovator in the last several years. Just like it was absurd when the crypto market cap reached close to $1 trillion, it seemed ludicrous to me that a singular tech company should be worth that much. The person said he thought it would continue going up. Apple was worth $230 per share at the time. It has since declined 37%. I also had a conversation with an Uber driver who thought stocks would keep going up. I told him he was probably in for a nasty surprise. He condescendingly brushed off my warning, as if I didn't know what I was talking about. "This isn't Bitcoin," he said. This was when the Dow Jones was still above 26000. I know I sound like someone who said, "I told you so." And well, I DID tell him so. The thing is, all markets can crash hard, if the majority collectively ceases to believe in something. Obviously this is total speculation and shouldn't be treated as financial advice. I really just want to look back on this in a few years and see how accurate (or inaccurate) I was. I find this stuff really interesting so I enjoy speculating about it. However, it's hard to ignore this giant uptrend channel that has been carefully formed over the last nine decades. If we are to follow the "Great Depression Fractal ," we could see a drop that actually takes us lower than the 2008 low. This is based on the pink lines, which also seem to correlate nicely with the 1920's bubble. If this happens (yellow scenario), we will have broken the long term logarithmic uptrend for the stock market. At some point, growth needs to slow down, and I think now is as good a time as any for this to happen. This doesn't mean that we won't continue to grow. I just think we will grow at a slower rate in the future, as we work to solve major issues related mostly to the global financial system and the environment. Growth will likely be limited due to these problems. All my possible bottom targets are in red on this chart. Our upwards momentum will likely be immediately suppressed by the rising trendline . We may need to meet it again sooner or later, but I think chances are much greater for a steeper drop soon since we broke our bullish structure. It's all psychological. If the vast majority of people realize that this thing has been going up for too long, then people will want to get out. It doesn't matter whether or not the banks are liquid. Just as banks have been responsible for us losing money in the past, we can be collectively responsible for the banks crashing today. If everyone wants to withdraw all their money, and banks only own 10% of what they say (as required by law, I believe), then things won't be good. For this reason, I think the U.S. Dollar is about to plummet as well and we will have a currency crisis. This is why I have hedged my savings with a cryptocurrency portfolio. I know it may fail, but I think the risk of staying "all in" on the U.S. Dollar is too great at the moment. Gold or silver would probably be safer investments, if one were to hedge, but I'm young so I can afford to put some money on riskier assets. In sum, I expect this crash to be more severe than the 2008 recession, and that it has a chance of actually breaking the long term logarithmic uptrend. However, as I said above, I don't think this means that we will necessarily have an apocalypse or anything like that. Although there certainly could be enough mass panic to nearly cause a societal collapse. On the contrary, I think this crash will be healthy in the long run, and I expect some major restructuring to come out of it. Or at least I hope this will be the case. We will then experience a period of slowed down growth, as our society becomes more global and stable. Remember, these last few decades have been less violent than any other period in human history. I think our population growth has reached a peak, but now we really need to grapple with all the change we've created for ourselves. Sorry for the long philosophical ramblings, but I do think it is related. Happy New Year and stay safe out there! - Love from Victor Cobra Previous DJI analysis, USD, and crypto linked below.
DJ:DJIShort
by VictorCobra
4
Dow Jones: 2008-Scale Decline AheadThe Dow does not tend to end its bull-runs with H&S on the monthly but with double-tops, followed by 20-50% retracements to the down-side - something that we see unfolding here (note the trendline and Fib-level support). Since the FUD is currently accelerating in a similar scale and manner that we had back in 2008, I assume a similar downfall of roundabout 40%, spread across a span of 1.5 years until we see the very bottom (coincidentally pointing to 0-fib-level). However, we need to see how the market unfolds within the next 1.5 years and adjust accordingly, but the direction and scale of decline should be clear to anyone. Btw.: I do NOT see a 1929 - 1932 scale event for US-based stock markets, while European markets (especially Germany) could be hit even harder. For this, see my German DAX TA =>
TVC:DJIShort
by CoinStudio
DAX Checkmate: Long-Term Bear & Depression AheadThe trendline on the monthly has been broken after the massive H&S, finally confirming it. If the support at the black line is kept broken after the monthly closed, we will face the real free-fall, eventually going down to 9100 regions in short-term (talking about next 120 days). From there we have 2 options within the next couple of years: 1. Further downfall driven by bearish sentiment to 7500 levels, which would result in a "medium" kind of capitulation and depression. Basically a classic cycle. 2. Return to above 10.000, forming another, even larger-scale H&S which would extend the duration until the 7500 level actually happens (with room to fall further down below). In any way, we are going to face a very bearish closing market cycle, with a lot of "blood on the streets" and world-wide economically turmoil and uncertainty. Be aware that the DAX is a great indicator for the state of the world-economy as Germany is heavily dependent on exports, so other indexes might follow, based on the state and focus of the underlying economy.
XETR:DAXShort
by CoinStudio