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Depression

The Great Depression Fractal Returns! (Part IV - Mania)Time for a necessary update on the stock market - namely the Dow Jones Industrial Average. I decided to draw this one using the pitchfork tool, to create parallel channels for accuracy. My other DJI charts were drawn with more of a wedge. This chart uses a slightly different model, so some price targets may be revised from my initial speculations. Back in December 2018, I anticipated the drop and then suggested that consolidation and then an eventual move up would be possible, based on the strength of the bounce. As you can see when comparing the 1920's bubble with the current stock market rally, price action would end up being nearly identical. Without further ado, let me call your attention to the main features of this chart: A) The Main Uptrend Resistance (red) - The DJI has followed this trendline pretty closely since the 1929 crash. Since 1931, that red trendline has served as major resistance in 1937 and then repeatedly between 1999 and 2001. It was also major support in the run up to the 1929 crash. B) First Uptrend Support (light blue) - This trendline has numerous touches, and it has served as more of a pivot area than anything else. It probably has the most reactions compared with any of the other lines on this chart. It was major resistance from 1944-1954, major support from 1954-1969, major resistance again from 1969-1995, and has mostly acted as support (except a brief dip below during the 2008 crisis) from 1995 until the present. Our recent December dump actually bounced perfectly off this trendline. This one is very important. C) Lower Uptrend Support (purple) - This trendline has been respected ever since the bottom in 1932. We briefly slid below it during the financial crisis in the late 70's/early 80's, before staying well above it until we bounced heavily off it in 2008. During an eventual stock market correction, I'd expect this support to be tested again. This line should be watched for any potential growth slowdowns. If the Great Depression Fractal is to complete, we may even break below it. This would indicate a severe period of consolidation and slowed down growth (I actually think this would be healthy). This brings me to the next feature of my chart. D) The broadening triangle fractal (orange) - This is an interesting one. You can see that we bounced twice on a similar triangle prior to the Great Depression (two hammers on the bottom left of the main chart). We also did the same thing in 2002 and then again in early 2009. Trump's election spurred a breakout above the top resistance of the triangle, just as we did in 1925 before our final blow off top. If we are to follow exactly what happened after 1929, the DJI could drop all the way to the bottom triangle support, (indicated by the red finger). This would be a major technical failure, and would cause the DJI to drop out of its long term uptrend, if perhaps only briefly. C) The Blow-Off Top - The Dow Jones rallied from about 150 to 400 - a 2.66X increase once that broadening triangle resistance was broken. If the DJI did the same today, that would place a potential blow-off top target at around 50,000 - give or take a little. The reason I set this target is because the orange triangle was broken at around 18,950. A factor of 2.66 from there is 50,407. This means that the stock market could double up from here in a "mania" phase. I've changed my targets a bit from my previous analysis, because I'm looking more carefully at it. We could also get stopped by that red resistance before reaching 50K. If we break above those areas, I'd actually look for a longer stock market growth period. This would be interesting, as it would go against the economic downturn that almost everyone is expecting. This would mean that the stock market could just continue growing....all the way until another channel resistance is formed. Here is the comparison between the 1920's and present day: 1920's chart, where you can see that we might be about to begin a final bubble phase: Present Day Chart And What A Similar Crash Could Look Like: Anyway, I think the similarities are pretty clear. Whether or not it plays out remains to be seen. Perhaps the economy can figure itself out, and growth can be made in new areas (clean energy/environment, for example). This is a SHORT setup (if that orange triangle support is broken to the downside, but for now we can expect that prices MAY increase for a bit longer (even a couple more years)...barring any major disaster. A disaster could send us down to that purple support sooner. Likewise, this is a LONG setup if the most recent high is breached. I don't expect this to be a long term trade though. I personally don't feel comfortable buying stocks for the long term here. This is not financial advice. This chart is for future reference and is based entirely on speculation and my personal opinion. I'm not an expert - just a hobby analyst. Additionally, I personally believe that many tech stocks are overvalued, and that people might soon collectively lose interest in certain progressing technologies. For example, I think Apple stock is nearing a plateau. As such, I think we're nearing the end of a rally for many tech stocks. I think we've been in a bit of a bubble there for the last 15 years or so. I'm also curious to see how cryptocurrencies end up factoring in to all of this (and whether or not they will become a factor at all). Anyway, that's it for now! -Victor Cobra
TVC:DJIShort
by VictorCobra
5
Bye Bye $DJI *US30 Chart* Monthly TF1 of 3 The DJI has finished a complete three drive on the monthly tf while finishing the three drive of the monthly 4A-5D drive. The Bears were injected into the market on May '11 and have been building since then. $25,000 Phys number is being used as resistance for that price can manage to break above but it cannot close with a retest and a break higher for HH, to tag along with the resistance level at $25,000 an HNS pattern is forming which is a great reversal pattern in the markets. Price is sitting high above the 200-MA during the '08 crash the highs of the year was 45% away from the 200-MA The current highs at $26,961 sit 50% away from the 200-MA. Current MacD shows divergence with LH on the MacD and HH on the charts which shows sign of Counter trend and or Trend Reversal in which I am more in favor of espically with the HNS patter that is sitting at a Phys number resistance level. Personal Note: This can either be the end of the DJI and start of BTC and or DJI can have a major reset down to $2,737 and lower and make a new fresh HL that will lead to the DJI back up to $25,000 and Higher Decades until that will happen
FX:US30Short
by OTIEmpire
Bitcoin Final Touch to Bottom Fractal Continues2019 for comparison: The Hall and Co 2.0 trading indicator seems to be outlining the bottoming fractal (assuming we are already at the bottom). We just had the local push to 4200 area before dumping then rising somewhat to where we are now. If the bottoming fractal continues to hold true then we are going to have a slow bleed for the next month or so until we wick down to the 3200 support area. I seriously doubt it will break but we will have to wait until then before we decide to go all in at the bottom. Look for super high shorts (as high as they were when we dropped all the way from 6k to 3k), since it also seems that going against when people are heavily shorting is intelligent. Shorts are at the ATL area right now, which is where they were at just before the break to 3k from 6k.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by bobjames1
The Great Depression Fractal - Part 3 (Blow Off Top Incoming?)Hey guys! Posting an update on my DJI analysis, since we're close to invalidating the possibility of further weakness (for the time being). As I said in my previous analysis, it was best to remain on the sidelines after the bounce from the 21000 area, since it was fairly strong. In addition, I indicated the possibility that we'd actually break the previous high, since this would still be in keeping with my great depression fractal. In fact, I was actually MORE concerned about a further rise. This actually makes me even MORE worried, as I think the crash will now end up being much more severe, once we've officially topped out. I actually hope we find resistance here and drop soon, for the integrity of the market. IF we don't break down here and make a higher high, I expect us to rally at least to the top of the GIANT uptrend channel (the resistance there is real - just look at my chart). This currently lies in the 30000 area. If we break that resistance, we will likely have an even larger rally, and we will have to create a new long term channel. As you can see, in the late 1920's, we rallied higher before the final 90% drop. Between February 1927 and July 1929, the DJI rose 233% from about 167 to 384. This means that we could indeed rise up to somewhere between 60-63000 before a huge collapse, if we break the recent high. This target is well above the channel resistance though, so a rise this extreme might be unlikely. I think 30K is more realistic. Either way, this would be an enormous trading opportunity, but it's unfortunately NOT what I wanted to see in the market. I would have preferred a recession now rather than later. This is far less healthy, and it just goes to show that humans have not learned to stifle their greed, and history may indeed have to repeat itself. This final bubble phase may be led by a potential Weed bubble (I can already see major news outlets starting to incite retail FOMO into this sector, even though the ideal buy in point was any time during the last two years). Anyway, this isn't as long-winded as my previous chart. That analysis speaks for itself. This is not financial advice. This is purely my opinion and for educational purposes only. -Victor Cobra
DJ:DJI
by VictorCobra
BTC: Indicator Showing Potential Bitcoin BottomI was granted access to the Hall and Co Trading 2.0 indicator. This is a weekly (W) indicator for bull periods that show buy areas , targets , and stop-losses . The BSO signal forms on a weekly candle, and when it closes it indicates a buy opportunity. However when used with the BTC daily (D) chart it seems to show where the peaks are, and interestingly where the top was. Now if we look back to 2014 we can see that something similar happened that is happening now: a lack of a daily BSO for a long time. In 2014 between the last BSO and the capitulation final bottom was 1.5 years, then 3 month later another BSO. Using the same logic, then we should see a final bottom in late February/March (1 month time roughly speaking), which should take us to the 2xxx level that everyone thinks we are going to. This also ties in with the wedge and decreasing volume we are in currently. Last time this happened we crashed from 6k to 3k due to the nonexistent volume. However, this bear should technically take longer than last time due to the maturing market. You can ask TomHall for him to grant you access to the indicator.
by bobjames1
Month-End Continuation & MoreSame idea as in previous chart. This is zoomed in to show the main points of resistance. 2 areas of concern with rising wedge in these recent times and stretched RSI. Very likely turnaround point in the next week or so. If it breaks past the fib line, then there will assuredly be snubbing right at the resistance line set by the previous peaks. The overall trend aims downward still just with greater range for volatility. The broad chart shows areas of potential bounce from the long term trends set from the previous 10-20 years. Intruding beneath these points will violate extremely long term sets of support. 2 are depicted here from the 'line 1' and 'line 2'. I'm making a "why not" prediction as far as the timing with the green line I'd crudely drawn in our future. Seems as though that historically, the steeper climbs give steeper falls, and the more gradual inclines will mirror a gradual descent. We are in an era of just the opposite. Short periods of time with rapid ascent. So, I'd imagine just the same with the coming down from our highest high at nearly 27,000 pts for the DJI. Though I have no crystal ball, and I could be painfully wrong, this seems passable to me. Consumers still have the power to extend themselves for longer than we can predict, and the mere culture of my country can exhaust every bit of leverage capacity in ways not seen before. It very well could be that we climb out of these slows and right up past the highs to reclaim new territory and keep this sick machine turning for another half-decade, and I would be equally unsurprised, but I have no doubt that what we are doing now has incredible consequences.
DJ:DJIShort
by thehoplite
Are we headed on a 10 year BEAR market?Germany the 4th largest economy is about to go into a recession, UK collapsing on the face of the Brexit, France government at the edge of destruction, Italy is bankrupt, Greece is bankrupt, China could very well be in a recession as we speak, Venezuela is in turmoil, Honduras, Guatemala, Argentina and many other south American countries are bankrupt. The USA now showing signs of a weak economy. Is this the beginning of the next 10 year bear market?
SP:SPX
by TheKingOfAces
The Great Depression Fractal Part II - A WarningI have a lot of thoughts to express, so I apologize if this is rather long. Since my first DJI analysis and short setup, we have dropped a good 14%. There was a chance that we could rally higher, sort of like we did before the Great Depression, but we've broken the bullish structure. Until we see any movement above the 26000 area, we can assume we will be in a bear market. I've read some articles trying to assure people that everything is okay, and that this sort of correction is normal. And yes, under CERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES it would be considered a standard correction. However, it's extremely important to note WHERE this drop has occurred, in relation to the long term trend. That's why the log graph is so important. My first DJI chart illustrated what a WORST CASE SCENARIO may look like, if the Great Depression fractal plays out (circled in green). What could cause a crash this severe, you may ask? I will argue that the bull market we've experienced since the 2008-09 crash has been artificial. The crash was meant to be much deeper, from a technical perspective, since we had made a lower low. Now we must reap the rewards of an economic system that is built on smoke and mirrors. I think this upcoming crash will, in the short term, cause a lot of pain. However, I believe that, in the long run, it needs to happen if we are going to survive. The overall trend throughout history has been towards a more global, unified society. A number of forces are trying to work against this right now (populist movements in many major countries like The United States, Great Britain, and Brazil). I think these movements will fail, resulting in a restructuring of our global financial system, amongst other things. For the short term, we can expect somewhat of a bounce. In my previous analysis, I suggested that shorting the breakdown of 24000-23000 would be a good r/r trade. We have some support at 21500, so we could see some buying at these current levels, especially with the RSI looking pretty oversold, even on the monthly timeframe. This bounce, if it occurs, will likely be quick and violent, enough to wreck shorters. It could carry us all the way back up near 23000. If a bounce does not materialize, we will likely head straight down to the next support in the 18300 area, where we will need to see how the market reacts in order to gauge momentum. In the long term, I think this will be a severe crash, with a target at MAXIMUM of near 13000. This would complete a 50% correction, which would be considered "healthy." However, I think we are about to witness something far more drastic, and I think we will need to at least test the lower bounds of this giant uptrend channel we've been in since we bottomed in 1932. Human society has changed so much in the last 100 years that we've hardly been able to adapt. Everything is easy for us now, and all we do is buy buy buy, even if we don't have enough money. I can't tell you how many people I met in the last year in the U.S. with less than $20 in their bank accounts who still wanted to spend money. I worked in direct sales for a while and plenty of potential customers handed me their debit cards, happy to part with $30, only to realize that they had no money in their account. I think people must be starting to become bored with all this meaningless buying. They don't know what to do with themselves. Even dating has become a tedious activity, and people are just getting lonelier, with marriages declining as well. It's only a matter of time before people wake up and realize that there is something VERY wrong. Only so much innovation can happen before we become complacent and realize that there must be something to life other than buying things. If one thing doesn't bring people happiness, eventually they will do the opposite. I believe this is the underlying reason why the expectations for growth have been diminishing. We're realizing collectively that everything is fabricated, and that the thousands of dollars we spend on Mac computers really doesn't make much sense, or bring us much happiness in the long run. I think tech will be valued less and less until it gets much cheaper because it is no longer "new" or even "necessary." I also had a conversation with a friend over the summer, and he said that he thought tech would just continue to grow exponentially without slowing down as we innovate more and more. If the majority of people believe this, it's clear we've been in a bubble. I had a couple of conversations with strangers this past year, while stocks were still rallying. I met someone who made thousands trading recently and I told him Apple was probably going to drop soon. He asked me why, and I said because people will take profits, and $1 trillion doesn't sound like a number that should be associated with an individual company that hasn't really been much of an innovator in the last several years. Just like it was absurd when the crypto market cap reached close to $1 trillion, it seemed ludicrous to me that a singular tech company should be worth that much. The person said he thought it would continue going up. Apple was worth $230 per share at the time. It has since declined 37%. I also had a conversation with an Uber driver who thought stocks would keep going up. I told him he was probably in for a nasty surprise. He condescendingly brushed off my warning, as if I didn't know what I was talking about. "This isn't Bitcoin," he said. This was when the Dow Jones was still above 26000. I know I sound like someone who said, "I told you so." And well, I DID tell him so. The thing is, all markets can crash hard, if the majority collectively ceases to believe in something. Obviously this is total speculation and shouldn't be treated as financial advice. I really just want to look back on this in a few years and see how accurate (or inaccurate) I was. I find this stuff really interesting so I enjoy speculating about it. However, it's hard to ignore this giant uptrend channel that has been carefully formed over the last nine decades. If we are to follow the "Great Depression Fractal ," we could see a drop that actually takes us lower than the 2008 low. This is based on the pink lines, which also seem to correlate nicely with the 1920's bubble. If this happens (yellow scenario), we will have broken the long term logarithmic uptrend for the stock market. At some point, growth needs to slow down, and I think now is as good a time as any for this to happen. This doesn't mean that we won't continue to grow. I just think we will grow at a slower rate in the future, as we work to solve major issues related mostly to the global financial system and the environment. Growth will likely be limited due to these problems. All my possible bottom targets are in red on this chart. Our upwards momentum will likely be immediately suppressed by the rising trendline . We may need to meet it again sooner or later, but I think chances are much greater for a steeper drop soon since we broke our bullish structure. It's all psychological. If the vast majority of people realize that this thing has been going up for too long, then people will want to get out. It doesn't matter whether or not the banks are liquid. Just as banks have been responsible for us losing money in the past, we can be collectively responsible for the banks crashing today. If everyone wants to withdraw all their money, and banks only own 10% of what they say (as required by law, I believe), then things won't be good. For this reason, I think the U.S. Dollar is about to plummet as well and we will have a currency crisis. This is why I have hedged my savings with a cryptocurrency portfolio. I know it may fail, but I think the risk of staying "all in" on the U.S. Dollar is too great at the moment. Gold or silver would probably be safer investments, if one were to hedge, but I'm young so I can afford to put some money on riskier assets. In sum, I expect this crash to be more severe than the 2008 recession, and that it has a chance of actually breaking the long term logarithmic uptrend. However, as I said above, I don't think this means that we will necessarily have an apocalypse or anything like that. Although there certainly could be enough mass panic to nearly cause a societal collapse. On the contrary, I think this crash will be healthy in the long run, and I expect some major restructuring to come out of it. Or at least I hope this will be the case. We will then experience a period of slowed down growth, as our society becomes more global and stable. Remember, these last few decades have been less violent than any other period in human history. I think our population growth has reached a peak, but now we really need to grapple with all the change we've created for ourselves. Sorry for the long philosophical ramblings, but I do think it is related. Happy New Year and stay safe out there! - Love from Victor Cobra Previous DJI analysis, USD, and crypto linked below.
DJ:DJIShort
by VictorCobra
4
Dow Jones: 2008-Scale Decline AheadThe Dow does not tend to end its bull-runs with H&S on the monthly but with double-tops, followed by 20-50% retracements to the down-side - something that we see unfolding here (note the trendline and Fib-level support). Since the FUD is currently accelerating in a similar scale and manner that we had back in 2008, I assume a similar downfall of roundabout 40%, spread across a span of 1.5 years until we see the very bottom (coincidentally pointing to 0-fib-level). However, we need to see how the market unfolds within the next 1.5 years and adjust accordingly, but the direction and scale of decline should be clear to anyone. Btw.: I do NOT see a 1929 - 1932 scale event for US-based stock markets, while European markets (especially Germany) could be hit even harder. For this, see my German DAX TA =>
TVC:DJIShort
by CoinStudio
DAX Checkmate: Long-Term Bear & Depression AheadThe trendline on the monthly has been broken after the massive H&S, finally confirming it. If the support at the black line is kept broken after the monthly closed, we will face the real free-fall, eventually going down to 9100 regions in short-term (talking about next 120 days). From there we have 2 options within the next couple of years: 1. Further downfall driven by bearish sentiment to 7500 levels, which would result in a "medium" kind of capitulation and depression. Basically a classic cycle. 2. Return to above 10.000, forming another, even larger-scale H&S which would extend the duration until the 7500 level actually happens (with room to fall further down below). In any way, we are going to face a very bearish closing market cycle, with a lot of "blood on the streets" and world-wide economically turmoil and uncertainty. Be aware that the DAX is a great indicator for the state of the world-economy as Germany is heavily dependent on exports, so other indexes might follow, based on the state and focus of the underlying economy.
XETR:DAXShort
by CoinStudio
Is the S&P500 at the end of a 100+ year CYCLE?The S&P500 market has started the end of a 100+ year 5 wave cycle, if this is correct we are now at almost the top of a 5 wave cycle which can end in the very near future. If this is true we are at the start of one of the biggest, if not the biggest market crash in the history of the S&P500. A correction of 5 wave cycle is usually 61.8% of the entire 5 waves, if this is correct we could see S&P500 prices of $1,100 levels. We are talking about $20 trillion wiped out. We could be going into a DEPRESSION!!!!
SP:SPXEducation
by TheKingOfAces
4
My Crazy Idea About The Dow JonesThis is mostly for fun, but also an illustration of a worst case scenario. Saw this crazy fractal and thought....what if? I love the fact that this chart has so much price history. In all seriousness though, if the DJI fails to consolidate in this range and make a higher high soon, we can assume it will drop. We have a nice double top formation so far. Buying here is risky, but could have a high reward if you can time the next top (if there is one), because after that, it could get very ugly. If we drop hard now, we have immediate support in the 15000 area, and then around 10000. Based on this log graph, we have A LOT of room to fall in the event of a crisis. If those supports mentioned above and outlined on my chart fail to hold, we could fall straight down to the support created by the 2008 recession (my yellow line). That happens to coincide nicely with the long term uptrend line that dates all the way back to the Great Depression. If we fall below that, all bets are off. If we move higher from here, I expect a final blow off top (this is also what happened right before the Great Depression). The Great Depression fractal (circled in red) looks very ominous. You may have to scroll to the left to see it. This is not financial advice, nor am I a qualified financial advisor. This is just my perspective on how things COULD play out from here, and I'm mostly just curious to see how it plays out. I do not have any open positions here at this time.
DJ:DJIShort
by VictorCobra
HG1!Southern Copper Corporation is an integrated copper producer. It produces copper and, in the production process, obtains several by-products, including molybdenum, silver, zinc, sulfuric acid and other metals. Its segments include the Peruvian operations, the Mexican open-pit operations and the Mexican underground mining operations segment identified as the IMMSA unit. The Peruvian operations segment includes the Toquepala and Cuajone mine complexes, and the smelting and refining plants, including a metals plant industrial railroad and port facilities that service both mines. The Mexican open-pit operations segment includes the La Caridad and Buenavista mine complexes, and the smelting and refining plants, including a metals plant and a copper rod plant, and support facilities that service both mines. As of December 31, 2016, the Mexican underground mining operations segment included five underground mines that produce zinc, copper, silver and gold, a coal mine and a zinc refinery. SCCO HG AMEX:COPX
NYSE:SCCO
by Pokethebear
MICROSOFT to bleed more than half its value: wave 3 completionThis is a W1 chart of Microsoft. The purpose of this post is to follow major companies whose share price affect the general financial market in order to anticipate the depression/recession that is to come. This analysis is based on EWP in combination with fibonacci levels, and some reversal candle stick formation in the end. After the correction of 2008-2009, MSFT began to develop wave 3 of a larger degree (Starting from Sep2019). All wave count is on the chart and we now have a completed 5 wave structure to make wave 3. This wave three structure took approximately 9 years to build, and it fits fibonacci levels perfectly! Wave 2 is .5 ret of wave 1. Wave 4 is .382 ret of wave 3. Wave 3 is a 1.618 ext of wave 1-2. Wave 5 is a 2.618 ext of wave 3-4. Although fifth wave extension is uncommon in equity market, we cannot discard the possibility of this scenario with clear wave structures. Wave 5 extension personality: it often retraces to the wave 2 region of the extended fifth wave (labelled with blue dotted lines.) ***This region coincides with .618 retracement of the entire wave 3 structure of one larger degree. Candlestick: Reversal pattern is in print with: a spinning top (2 weeks ago as I am writing this); a shooting star (last week as I am writing this, with its upper wick landing right on the 2.618 ext of wave 3-4!!). And now, we have a hanging man in print (Have to wait for week to close). In summary, all the stars are in line for MSFT to suffer a correction. Using knowledge of wave personalities, it is extremely possible that MSFT may lose more than half of its current share value within the coming years.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by someone514
5