Tenders, Tweets, and TrendlinesLike predicted in my previous article, since the very release of the Coinbase IPO, "COIN", Bitcoin has yet to test new highs.
Consequently, Bitcoin is nearly 45% from the April 13th high, and has spent the last 18 days consolidating into what appears to be a pennant.
Generally, pennants have a higher probability of a continuation than a reversal. However, this pennant is placed just above a very major trendline. In addition, the entire Bitcoin Conference of 2021 was full of nothing but bullish news such as the first country in history to accept Bitcoin as a legal tender! Despite Elon Musk attempting to drive this market down via his Twitter account, I believe we have yet to of seen a real bounce from this nasty market leader.
Major Trendline:
My plan:
I have already entered a small amount that was previously nabbed on the first test of the major trendline.
I am hoping that BTCUSD plays a usual breakout pattern which I have demonstrated on the chart above. Therefore a majority of my bids are sitting at trendlines just above 34k. At this point I will enter the remaining of my position with periodic stops to reduce exposure if needed.
IF BTC breaks and stays below the 0.236 at $33.4k I would say we have a lot to worry about.
IF BTC fails to retest bottom support and breaks back above the pennant resistance, I will enter the remaining of my position manually.
Remaining optimistic, I have my primary target set at 42k and will adjust based on the performance.
Wish you all the best of luck!
Depthhouse
Don't Get Sucked In - YetMarket action the last couple weeks has been crazy! Many of us have been able to make huge gains on our accounts in such short periods of time due to this volatility! However we much remember not to FOMO but to act rationally to maintain our earnings.
That being said, many of those who follow me know that I have been bullish on Ethereum and other coins such as ADA and XMR. However after taking a closer look at Ethereum today, I am not entirely convinced that we have broken out of the ascending triangle which is shown in my last ETH publication. (snapshot and link below)
If you look at the chart above you will notice two Bearish ABCD patterns that complete themselves at 177 which was just tested, and Ethereum was rejected from. Therefore, the 177 level now marks a key level for Ethereum to break to cancel out this repeating pattern.
One could argue that the larger ABCD pattern is invalid due to these patterns being time based. However the smaller one of the 2 is 100% valid, which if resistance is not broken, we will likely test support at the 150 area to see if this pattern will repeat itself once again.
IF we continue up and break past this resistance level, 244-47 remains my final target :)
If you would like more information on ABCD patterns and how they work, please leave a comment! I would love to make an educational post on them!
I wish you all the best of luck!
Cheers!
ETH Ascending Triangle: Do you think this was a solid break?
Enjin Repeating Fractal - another 100% ? After a month of ENJ going nearly 10x from its bottom in late February, it has had the chance to consolidate to the 50% fib retracement zone. Which in doing so, it has created drastic similarities to the consolidation wave after its first leg up.
Therefore it seems it could be repeating the same pattern once again, only this time on a larger scale.
Looking at the chart, we are currently in the center of a key support zone. This support zone was created using replicated fib levels from the prior wave. Meaning that if this level holds, there is a very solid chance ENJ will bounce to the Target 1 resistance zone, consolidate and then make its way to the second target.
I wish you all the best of luck this alt season!
Cheers!
Notes:
The current support zone MUST hold for the fractal to hold true
Generally alts follow Bitcoin, and BTC is currently riding thin support.
Hacks Are In. So is Monero? After months of ranging, XMR has finally broken north out of the pennant that was formed on the daily time frame.
All it has left to do now is to break the current resistance level to remove the possibility of a double top. As long as this level is broken we should have no issue reaching T1
However, based on the size of the pennant, I have marked additional target levels which would remain very possible.
There is great potential on this trade so I wish you all the best of luck!
Cheers!
On a Postive Note - Macro vs. Micro
Since Etherum formed its latest bottom of $80 and bouncing nearly 100% the crypto community received a glimpse of hope that crypto may rally once again.
Since we were rejected at $160 for the second time I have seen an overwhelming amount of bears come out of the woodworks.
I am not posting this chart to say whether I am Bull nor Bear, I am merely here to support explain the support and resistance and to show how & why the ETH chart could turn Bullish.
The Macro Resistance:
The 160 level marks the .886 fib retracement from $5 low in December of 2016 to the all time high of $1400 in January of 2018. Hence the Macro :)
Over the course of the last 2 years, this level has been tested multiple times. The first several times on ETHs way up to its all time high, and then twice more on its way down.
So being rejected from this brick wall of resistance on the second try is no surprise to me.
The Micro Support:
Currently at $131, Ethereum sits on .236 fib extension. Which it seems we are trying desperately to break to keeps getting rejected.
This being said, from a Micro point of view, I see no reason to be completely bearish yet. The .236 and .382 trend based extension levels are key to hold to support additional upward movement. So from a Micro point of view thing are looking good.
The Macro Patterns:
Holding these two micro support levels will also support two possible Bullish patterns. ETH currently has the possibility to for form and complete An ascending triangle pattern & an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
Both of these patterns would complete themselves if the .382 support level holds and go up to break the major resistance at $160
Summary:
Macro vs Micro - at first glance it appears that the major resistance level at 160 is a huge win for the bears. However with the possibility of the minor support levels holding and the major bullish patterns forming, leaves room for the Bulls to gain some momentum to break the major $160 resistance.
My plan of action:
I have already exited my long from the $100 level and am hoping to re-enter around $112, as this marks the .382 trend based extension.
Only time will tell, and unfortunately this market is in no hurry to get anywhere.
Cheers and good luck!
ETH Daily Candle BreakdownFor those of you following my ideas recently know that I am very bullish on ETH. This is primarily based on my previously conducted Volume study. link below
That being said, Ethereum just closed a daily candle below a multi-week trendline. Just about 2 weeks after the VPSI showed complete buyer exhaustion on the daily at about $250.
These signs lead me me to believe that IF ETH fails to reclaim this trendline, a larger pullback may occur within the next couple days.
Overall I wish to remain bullish on ETH.
Therefore posted this as a Long, and have shown possible support levels on the chart above.
Be sure to check out my Ethereum Volume Analysis on why I think the bottom could be near & my Long Targets!
I hope you all found this idea interesting and maybe even a little helpful!
I wish you all the best of luck!
ETH Capitulation - Is there an end in sight? During the beginning of the crypto sell off earlier this year, Ethereum was one of the highest performing alts for a great period of time.
I believe this was because during the beginning of this bear market, people were not as hesitant to take risky investments such as ICOs, AND also, many ICO developers were likely cashing out their tokens for Ethereum, all in turn, helped levitate the price.
However, as time went on, and the bear trend did not reverse, people began to panic.
ICO bag holders went running for cover, cashing out what little was left of their investment.
All mean while ICO developer whales realized it may be time to cash out their MASSIVE stacks of Ethereum while the price is still relatively high.
All in turn we get Ethereum capitulation.
Now I do not know if the end is in sight,
however, based on harmonics, we have a possible Bullish Gartley setup on the ETH/ BTC pair.
Not only that, but ETHUSD is nearing my first support level buys at 230.
Based on my trading strategy, 2 out of the 2 currency pairs show possible support around these levels. I plan leverage against my USD to start building a ETHBTC long. If all goes to plan and ETHUSD finds support, I will start purchasing Ethereum outright.
My preferred entry is right at the 1.618 fib level
I hope you all enjoyed my analysis!
Please let me know what you think in the comments below!
DISCLAIMER:
Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
Fundamentals of the Head and Shoulder BottomMany of the educational posts out there are mere examples of past chart patterns that have already completed themselves. Which this is an excellent way to study data and to help predict future movements, it tends to create over-confident traders.
As many of us know that there is no 100% guarantee to any chart pattern. However many people, myself included, sometimes become too stuck on one pattern and its outcome, and to not fully recognize the fact that it can fail.
Leading to why I decided to make this educational post, whether this pattern completes itself or not, it is here to show you what trading is actually like.
The chart above displays a textbook Head and Shoulders Bottom (also called Inverse Head and Shoulders) pattern forming. However, this pattern has yet to fully complete itself, and even if it does, it may or may not hit our preferred target.
But lets break down the fundamentals of a Head and Shoulders Bottom.
Prior Trend : The reason it is called a head and shoulders bottom pattern, is because it occurs after a previous downtrend. So we first must check that the trend is down before considering this pattern.
The Body : The reason it is called a head and shoulders pattern is due to its shape. The head is ALWAYS the lowest point in this pattern, while the left and right shoulders sit at similar levels above the head. All three of these points then share the same resistance level know as the neckline.
Neckline : The neckline forms by connecting the highs following the left shoulder and the head of the pattern. This line can slope up, slope down, or be horizontal. This is the key level to break in this pattern.
Right Shoulder : There seems to lots of controversy with the right shoulder, some believe that this level must at the exact same or higher level than the left shoulder. However this is not the case. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack, and the right shoulder will be higher, lower, wider, or narrower.
Volume : Since this pattern forms on the bottom of bear trends, there should be heavy selling volume on the left and right shoulders, while the right shoulder should be accompanied by light selling pressure.
The most important moment for volume occurs on the advance from the low of the right shoulder. For a breakout to be considered valid, there needs to be an expansion of volume on the advance and during the breakout.
Neckline Break : In order for this pattern to complete itself. There MUST be a break above the neckline . Otherwise the neckline remains resistance the the trend continues downwards.
Confirmation : Some believe the the neckline break serves as confirmation. However the real confirmation is once the neckline which once acted as resistance, later acts as support.
Target : The preferred target may be measured by taking the distance from the bottom of the head up to the neckline. While this is just a preferred target, one must consider other possible resistance levels.
Remember, even with all the patterns out there, there is never a 100% guarantee in trading.
I wish you all the best of luck!
I Hope you all found this educational post intresting and maybe even a little helpful!
DISCLAIMER:
Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
Diamond in the Ruff - Possible Shakeout? Bitcoin has had it rough the last couple weeks. We have been trading within a tight ranges with very few signals of direction.
Thankfully after this last leg down, a possible bullish bat has started to form with its completion at 7150.
The 7150 level not only marks the completion of the bat, but it also marks the .886 fib level which could be the beginning formation of a larger harmonic pattern.
My Plan:
I have most of my orders placed at $7150 with a few that are staggered below.
My 3 main targets are:
Target 1 : 7377 which markets the B leg of the bat.
Target 2 : 7751 or C leg of the Bat
Target 3 : 8178 or the .382 of the most recent 10k swing
IF BTC fails to bounce and goes on to make a lower low. I will likely exit my long.
I hope this analysis helps and I wish you all the best of luck!
Harmonics in Play - Why we fell w/ Key LevelsThe chart above shows a nearly perfect Bearish Butterfly that has been playing out.
I say nearly because the only place where it has fallen short is the D leg. Which based on the rules of the butterfly, should have completed itself right at 10k (based on BitMex charts).
However, IF the local top IS in, based on fractals of recent harmonics (see previous post) I have set a primary target of 8.8k or Target 2 on the chart above.
Since this harmonic has fallen short. I am in hopes of it heading back up to test 10k before making a full completion, or even possible breaking through.
Therefore we all must be on our toes in this zone.
Especially with it being the possible first Target of the harmonic.
DISCLAIMER:
Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
ETH - The Bottom Could Be NearBefore you read any further I want to state the current market state is extremely BEARISH. There is absolutely no sign of reversal yet, so buying on the support levels I have shown is extremely dangerous. I have lost nearly my entire account attempting to catch the bottom on this tumble down. So please do your own due diligence and wait for clear signs of reversal.
This analysis is entirely based on fractals, fibonacci retracements, and price ratios.
For those of you unfamiliar with fractals, they are recurring patterns that are used to predict reversals among larger, more chaotic price movements.
This example I am using fractals to help us predict the bottom and possibly future price movement.
The fractals above are highlighted in boxes. From afar they look similar but not quite exact.
However by lowering the timeframe on the smaller fractual you will see there is a massive amount of resemblance between the two.
After noticing this, I used both price ratios and fib levels of the smaller fractal to help predict the bottom of the current downtrend we are in.
Based on that data possible support for reversal ranges from $300-$400. Which is more clearly shown on the chart above.
IF this support holds true and the fractal repeats itself, the next bull run could be Ethereum's biggest one yet.
Zooming out on the chart above you will see my 3 major target zones. My third target being just over $5000.
Fractals are a great tool to use when it comes to trading. Especially on lower time frames.
The reason fractals are less likely to work on higher time frames is due to larger variables effecting it.
For example the ICO market is being heavily attacked by advertising companies and govermental regulation.
Events like this could disable Ethereums ability to gain Bullish momentum.
However, the setup is here. So we wait, and time will tell what the future holds.
I hope you all found this analysis enlightening in these very bearish times.
For those of you worried about the current market conditions, you should be, however the bottom will come in time, When is the uncertain factor.
I wish you all the best of luck.
ETH tips always appreciated:
0xEEcD7Ce6E22AfA6083074c4CCd326Be0b1C932d9
DISCLAIMER:
Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
Game of Ladders - short term analysisAfter another downward spike, BTC is once again resting on the major daily support trendline. Which this happens to be the .618 support of the current swing as well.
It is very possible that BTC could see some upward movement from the $8000 suppoer. However, doing so would risk the possibility of an ABCD formation .
Moving up from $8000, and failing to break 9.7 could create a major downward continuation signal. So if we get to that zone please trade carefully.
IF the .618 and the major trendline do not hold, we have a possible Bullish Bat formation which completes itself at either $7700 or $7000 range.
Due to the rules of harmonics, the $7000 support seems more likely if the pattern were to complete itself.
However, there is a very strong possibility that we could still find support in the $7700 range as this marks both the .786 of the previous swing and and .786 of the current swing.
I do want to note that if BTC were to break and close a daily candle below the current $8000 support level, I would be very hesitant to open any long positions until there is a clear sign of support.
This would be an extremely bearish signal for BTC. Please see my previous chart for a more detailed analysis on this.
I hope you find this support and resistance analysis helpful.
I wish you all the best of luck!
Daily Support Trendline:
DISCLAIMER:
Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
