Catching Boom and Crashe on Deriv Tradingview using TrendlinesCatching booms and crashes on Deriv using TradingView involves utilizing trendlines to identify potential reversal points and breakouts. Here’s a short guide on how to do this:
### 1. Understanding Boom and Crash Indices
- **Boom Index**: Represents a market where prices tend to spike upwards occasionally.
- **Crash Index**: Represents a market where prices tend to spike downwards occasionally.
### 2. Setting Up TradingView
- Open TradingView and ensure you have the Boom or Crash index loaded on your chart.
### 3. Drawing Trendlines
- **Identify Highs and Lows**: Start by identifying significant highs and lows on the chart.
- **Draw the Trendline**: Connect at least two significant highs for a downtrend line and at least two significant lows for an uptrend line.
### 4. Analyzing Trendline Breaks
- **Downtrend Breakout (Boom Index)**: Look for points where the price breaks above a downtrend line. This can indicate a potential upward boom.
- **Uptrend Breakout (Crash Index)**: Look for points where the price breaks below an uptrend line. This can indicate a potential downward crash.
### 5. Confirming the Breakout
- **Volume**: Higher volume during the breakout can confirm the validity of the trendline break.
- **Candlestick Patterns**: Look for reversal candlestick patterns near the trendline to increase the accuracy of your prediction.
### 6. Risk Management
- **Stop-Loss**: Set a stop-loss slightly below the breakout point for booms and slightly above for crashes.
- **Take-Profit**: Determine your target based on previous highs/lows or use a risk-reward ratio.
### Example:
1. **Boom Index**:
- Identify recent highs and draw a downtrend line.
- Wait for a candlestick to close above the trendline.
- Confirm with volume and possibly a bullish candlestick pattern.
- Enter a buy trade with a stop-loss below the trendline and a take-profit at a previous resistance level.
2. **Crash Index**:
- Identify recent lows and draw an uptrend line.
- Wait for a candlestick to close below the trendline.
- Confirm with volume and possibly a bearish candlestick pattern.
- Enter a sell trade with a stop-loss above the trendline and a take-profit at a previous support level.
By carefully analyzing trendlines and confirming breakouts with additional indicators, you can effectively catch booms and crashes on Deriv's Boom and Crash indices using TradingView.
Derivative_analysis
Trading Volatility 75 Index Using Trendlines Deriv TradingViewThe Volatility 75 Index, also known as VIX, represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility and is a popular instrument for traders looking to capitalize on market turbulence. Trading the Volatility 75 Index using trendlines on Deriv TradingView can be an effective strategy for identifying and acting on market trends. Here's a step-by-step guide to help you get started.
#### 1. Understanding Trendlines
Trendlines are straight lines drawn on a chart that connect two or more price points, usually to indicate a trend direction. An upward trendline connects the lows in an uptrend, while a downward trendline connects the highs in a downtrend. These lines act as support and resistance levels, providing traders with visual cues for potential trade opportunities.
#### 2. Setting Up Your Trading Environment
**Step 1: Access Deriv TradingView**
Log in to your Deriv account and navigate to the TradingView platform. Ensure that you have selected the Volatility 75 Index chart for analysis.
**Step 2: Choose the Right Timeframe**
Select an appropriate timeframe for your trading style. Short-term traders might prefer 1-minute or 5-minute charts, while swing traders may opt for 1-hour or daily charts.
#### 3. Drawing Trendlines
**Step 1: Identify Key Points**
Identify significant highs and lows on the chart. In an uptrend, look for a series of higher lows. In a downtrend, look for a series of lower highs.
**Step 2: Draw the Trendline**
- **Uptrend:** Click on the trendline tool and connect at least two significant higher lows.
- **Downtrend:** Click on the trendline tool and connect at least two significant lower highs.
Ensure that your trendline is not cutting through the candlesticks and that it aligns well with the price movement.
#### 4. Analyzing Trendline Breaks
Trendline breaks can signal potential trading opportunities. When the price breaks above a downward trendline, it might indicate a bullish reversal. Conversely, when the price breaks below an upward trendline, it might indicate a bearish reversal.
**Step 1: Confirm the Break**
Wait for a candlestick to close above or below the trendline to confirm the break. This reduces the risk of false signals.
**Step 2: Use Volume for Confirmation**
Increased trading volume can validate the trendline break, suggesting stronger market conviction behind the move.
#### 5. Placing Trades
**Step 1: Set Entry Points**
- **Long Trade:** Enter a buy position when the price breaks above a downward trendline and the breakout is confirmed.
- **Short Trade:** Enter a sell position when the price breaks below an upward trendline and the breakout is confirmed.
**Step 2: Set Stop-Loss Levels**
- Place a stop-loss below the most recent swing low for long trades.
- Place a stop-loss above the most recent swing high for short trades.
**Step 3: Set Take-Profit Levels**
Use previous support and resistance levels or employ a risk-reward ratio (e.g., 1:2 or 1:3) to determine your take-profit points.
#### 6. Managing the Trade
- **Monitor the Trade:** Keep an eye on the trade and adjust your stop-loss to lock in profits as the price moves in your favor.
- **Be Prepared for Reversals:** Market conditions can change rapidly, especially with an instrument as volatile as the Volatility 75 Index. Stay alert and be ready to exit the trade if the market reverses.
#### 7. Additional Tips
- **Combine with Other Indicators:** Enhance your trendline analysis by using other technical indicators like RSI, MACD, or moving averages for additional confirmation.
- **Stay Informed:** Keep an eye on market news and events that could impact volatility.
- **Practice Risk Management:** Never risk more than a small percentage of your trading capital on a single trade. This helps in managing potential losses and staying in the game longer.
#### Conclusion
Trading the Volatility 75 Index using trendlines on Deriv TradingView can be a powerful strategy when executed with precision and discipline. By identifying and drawing accurate trendlines, confirming trendline breaks, and managing trades effectively, traders can navigate the volatile nature of the VIX and capitalize on market movements. Always remember to practice good risk management and continuously improve your trading skills through education and experience.
Boeing: Descent to $130Overview
Boeing ( NYSE:BA ) has had a rough several years due to the controversy surrounding its MAX series. Just recently, an incident occurred during a flight on the West Coast where a part of the fuselage blew off during an ascent and required a prompt emergency landing. Fortunately everyone onboard made it safely back to the airport. This follows years after the two fatal Boeing MAX crashes in 2018-2019.
Technical Analysis
This is a new one for me. The BA 1D chart doesn't reveal any obvious patterns and, if anything, was in the process of forming an ascending triangle which is bullish. In light of the breaking news I am fairly confident that the ascending triangle will become invalid then transform into a months long descending triangle.
Utilizing Fibonacci retracement levels, I am expecting decent support around $130. Of course there will always be plenty of opportunity for scalping in-between now and then as the current share price is sitting around $249.
Fundamental Analysis
I will assess the balance sheet and provide a fundamental analysis sometime this weekend. However, I don't believe even a good balance sheet will alleviate the coming selling pressure. The markets are reactive to news and a healthy balance sheet would only mean certain recovery at a later time.
Final Final Leg Down For NowHere is the current forecast assuming Minor wave 4 completed at today’s high. The original bottom of Intermediate wave 5 based on all data acquired at the end of Intermediate wave 4 is on the right. The short, long blue box was the original forecasted low based on my derivative modeling. The current forecasted levels based on possible Minor wave 5 data points are on the left. There is overlap with the original areas. The low can happen fast and likely before October 26th. The low will likely remain between 4147 and 4180. It can always go lower. Original call was a low around 4175. It is possible we go below this by 10-15 points.
Once this bottom is in, it is finally rally time (short-lived but at least a month of 250+ points.
METHODOLOGY:
I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data.
Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
Market Top Soon, Bottom Next and Santa RallyTarget boxes are based on derivative analysis of historical waves performance. This will be the first use and test of the new analytical toolset. According to the tool, Intermediate wave 4 does not have much room for the top, looks like ceiling is 4402, which is less than originally expected. Next reversal point will be a low around 4180 which is much higher than originally expected. The timeframe for this low is also pretty quick as Intermediate wave 5 is only expected to last 34-54 trading hours, when Intermediate wave 1 was 112, and Intermediate wave 3 was in the 150s. Once the bottom is in, it will end Primary wave 1 meaning a corrective wave upward will occur over the following weeks which should take the market up through mid- to late-November. 2023 could end on a positive note, however it is masking the damage Primary wave 3 down will do through the first to second quarter of 2024.
Trading 101 - What is a Derivative & why are they revolutionary?Derivatives trading!
What I believe has been the absolute market revolution since shares.
Derivatives might sound complicated and something you would hear from a professor or a know-it-all businessman – but they’re really not.
I am no academic or even remotely one of the smartest guy’s in the world. And if I can grasp the idea and understanding of derivatives, I pretty much guarantee you will too.
Also, if you want to take trading seriously and really make a living with it, you’ll need to understand derivatives trading sometime in your career.
Let’s start at the very beginning.
What is a derivative?
– Collins English Dictionary –
‘A derivative is an investment that depends on the
value of something else’
When it comes to trading, a derivative is a financial contract between two parties whose value is ‘derived’ from another (underlying) asset.
Let’s break that down more simply:
A derivative is a
financial contract (CFDs, Spread Trading, Futures, Forwards, Options &Warrants)
Between two parties (the buyer and seller)
Whose value (the market’s price)
Is derived (depends on or comes from)
Another underlying asset (Share, index, commodity, currency, bond, interest-rate, crypto-currency etc…)
You’ll find that the derivative’s market price mirrors that of the underlying asset’s price.
Why trade using derivatives?
The absolute beauty about trading derivatives is that they are a cheaper and a more profitable way to speculate on the future price movements of a market without buying the asset itself.
You don’t get all the benefits with derivatives
What’s probably important to note with derivatives, is this.
When you buy a derivative’s contract, you’re not actually buying the physical asset. You’re simply making a bet on where you expect the price to go.
EXAMPLE:
When you buy actual shares of a company, means you’ll be able to attend AGMs (Annual General Meetings), Vote and claim dividends from a company.
When you trade derivatives on the underlying share, means you’ll be exposed to the value of the shares and the price movements – and that’s it!
As a trader, when you buy or sell a derivative, you’re not actually investing in the underlying asset but rather just making a bet (speculation) on where you believe the market’s price will head.
This gives you the advantage and opportunity to:
Buy low (go long) a derivative of the underlying asset and sell it at a higher price for a profit or
Sell high (go short) a derivative of the underlying asset and buy it back at a lower price for a profit
Remember when I said it was cheaper and more profitable? You can thank margin
With derivatives, you’ll normally pay a fraction of the price of the total sum and still be exposed to the full value of the asset (share, index, currency etc…)
The fraction of the price paid is called ‘margin’.
EXAMPLE:
To buy and own 10 Anglo shares at R390 per share will cost you R3,900 (R390 per share X 10 shares).
To buy and be exposed to 10 Anglo shares using derivatives, and the margin of the contract is 10% per share, means you’ll only pay R390 (R390 per share X 10% margin per derivative X 10 shares).
I’m sure you can see that with derivatives, you’ll be exposed to more and pay less which will gear up your potential profits or losses versus when trading shares.
This is why we call derivatives, geared financial instruments.
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Trade well, Live free
Timon
MATI Trader
Also my socials are below thanks to Trading View.
VOLTASWelcome to this analysis on VOLTAS
It has made a Bearish Harmonic Gartley Pattern on daily time frame on 14-01-2022.
Today it has shown a reversal from the PRZ and is currently forming a Bearish Engulfing Candle
Derivative data is also suggesting Fresh Short positions are taking place currently in it.
It could do a retracement till 1250-1225 as long as it does not trade above 1325.
BTC- Quick derivative analysis$8 billion liquidations were triggered when BTC briefly crashed to 31k on Wednesday,
This morning, over $7.5B in Bitcoin open interest was wiped out, bringing total OI back to levels last seen in early February.
Right now, oversold signals can be seen across the board and I think this is exactly what we need to shake out weak hands and over-leveraged positions.
ICICI Bank turning Bullish - Expecting Target of 530--550ICICI turned super bullish from this point as RSI taking support at 60.00.
Bullish Harami Candle forming on daily chart, break and sustain above 480.00 will take it to 520 and then to 530--550
We can enter ICICI Bank with Bull Call Spread.
Bull Call Spread on ICICI Bank
+1x 31DEC2020 480CE - ₹ 23.65
-1x 31DEC2020 530CE - ₹ 7.25
Max. Profit - ₹ +46,200
Max. Loss - ₹ -22,550
Max. RR Ratio - 1:2.00
Breakeven - 497.00
Estimated Margin/Premium - ₹23,000-- ₹25,000
BTC- Quick fundamental, derivative and on-chain recap*The STABLE Act bill, if passed, would require stable coin issuers to comply with Federal reserve and a banking license registration and to follow the same level of regulatory requirements as banks. Similar sentiment is echoed by G7 officials.
*Buy bitcoin google search has recently reached a level not seen since early 2018
*Coinbase's web traffic recently surged to the highest level not seen since April 2019
*Global bitcoin options OI hit another all-time-high recently
*Future traders on Binance are bullish on BTC, but future traders on Bitmex, Okex and Huobi seem to be bearish on BTC
*BTC options expiry on Dec. 25th will be the largest expiry in USD terms
*DEC. CME COT report on BTC indicates that whales' net short has reached all-time high
*BTC 3 month realized volatility is slowly ticking up
*Total DeFi unique addresses have recently surpassed 1 million mark
*SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) and BTC MPI (Miners' Position Index) indicate that the short-term correction is coming while realized price & realized market cap indicate that overall BTC price is in a healthy trend.
I expect the short-term correction to end around 16k or 13k. Historically, BTC has a mixed Q4 performance, but typically performs poorly in Q1 so we could be expecting a slow correction process that may not end until January next year.
COVID19 the Jerk got worse in a SnapPart 1: FULL INTRO
The goal remains the application of 'derivatives of displacement' to describe the spread of COVID-19. The points made will apply to any application over time (not just virus spread).
This charts focus is on COVID19's "snap". Snap is the 4th derivative of displacement:
Rate of spread (how many each day)
Velocity of spread: Change in Rate over time
Acceleration of spread: Change in Rate over time
Jerk of spread: Change in Rate over time
Snap: Change in Jerk over time
Snap is explosive change best described as "Oh Sh-t!"
Examples of snap include :
Waterfall.
Take off.
Flooring it.
Rocket launch.
Peak violent vomiting
Roller coaster with 360 loop.
COVID19 spread as of Nov, 2020. (Black histogram in upper right chart)
Why should I care?
Acceleration, Jerk and Snap can be evaluated together when expressed in standard deviations. 95% of measurements fall between -2 STD and +2 STD away from their mean mean (assuming a normal distribution).
The lower right chart presents the derivatives in terms of STD's. At the time of writing they are all above the midline (i.e. all positive). In terms of "stopping the spread" of the virus consider the difficulty in stopping any of the 'snap examples' above.
A job for superman? Superman was said to be "faster than a speeding bullet". However, after leaving the barrel, a bullets velocity and acceleration are negative. Bullets slow down, while virus spread speeds up. The bullets deceleration lacks jerk or snap unless it hits a wall. Yet, on one point the bullet metaphor *is* useful:
Giving a bullet or a virus a 'head start' has an exponential impact . For a virus the head start may be time for asymptomatic spread. For a bullet its a longer barrel and more time to build velocity.(see note below).
Time Matters and the time is now
American Jerk behind COVID surge : Derivatives of displacement
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
[Note on projectile velocities :
A bullet, while moving through its barrel, is being pushed forward by the gas expanding behind it. This gas was created when the trigger was pulled, causing the firing pin to strike the primer, which in turn ignited the solid propellant packed inside the bullet cartridge, making it combust while situated in the chamber. Once it leaves the barrel, the force of the expanding gas ceases to propel the bullet forth. When a bullet is fired from a handgun with a 2-inch (51 mm) barrel, the bullet only has a 2-inch (51 mm) "runway" to be spun before it leaves the barrel. Likewise, it has only a 2-inch (51 mm) space in which to accelerate before it must fly without any additional force behind it. In some instances, the powder may not have even been fully burned in guns with short barrels. So, the muzzle velocity of a 2-inch (51 mm) barrel is less than that of a 4-inch (100 mm) barrel, which is less than that of a 6-inch (150 mm) barrel.
BTC- PayPal hype could be as big as BTC ETF hypeThe drop to 9.2k-9.5k never happened and the recent consolidation above 10k demonstrated bull's conviction.
I expect the incoming shallow pullback and it will be even more bullish if weekly candle can close between 12k-12.5k.
First MicroStrategy, then Square and now PayPal.
PayPal supports 26 millions merchants and has 300 millions + customer accounts. Its announcement to support crypto payment couldn't come at better time.
Moreover, JPMorgan jumped on the bandwagon by making optimistic prediction of BTC's upward price potential this week.
Other on-chain indicators also point to the increase of whale hodlers.
Furthermore, institutional demand continues to go up while exchange reserve continue to drop.
Overall, I think BTC is making a steady progress and we are finally getting one step closer to break through the 3 year consolidation.
BTC- Back above daily POCTechnical analysis- Price lvl above most MAs. Trend indicators are bullish. No overheated signals from oscillators.
Price action- Uptrend in development. Above the demand zone. Back above daily POC.
Derivative signals- Mixed
Volume analysis- Mixed
Recent news about BitMEX indictment, OKEx fund withdrawals and DOJ's rehashed talking points about crypto threatening the national security didn't seem to have much impact on the price lvl.
BTC- No-trade zone (Quick fundamental recap)#1. Fidelity Investments has launched its first Bitcoin fund in late Aug.
#2. Snappa followed MicroStrategy's footstep by moving a significant amount of cash reserve into Bitcoin in late Aug.
#3. New clarification from US OCC clarified the confusion about the banking custody of crypto assets.
#4. Just Eat now accepting bitcoin payment in France.
BTC's moment of truthHi guys!
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Halving is just a few weeks away. The whole narrative about halving being BTC's watershed, a major turning point that would propel the next BTC bull run, has investors and traders anxiously waiting for the day of reckoning to arrive. Will it arrive on time or will it arrive late? Will it even arrive at all? Can the current consolidation and sideway movement be interpreted as the slow build-up toward the explosive price movement?
Derivative market has been quiet and sending out mixed signals, with big three (Bitmex, Okex and Binance) all seeing increase in OI, but decline in volume.
There are some good news on the institutional side.
According to glassnode, the number of Bitcoin whales with at least 1,000 BTC to their name is now higher than at any point in the past two years.
Both Grayscale Bitcoin trust and Grayscale Ethereum trust experienced record quarterly inflows of $388.9 million and $110.0 million, respectively, according to the most recent Grayscale report. In addition, 88% of investment in Q1 came from institutional investors, dominated by hedge funds, further signaling the increased institutional demand.
Perhaps, coincidentally, last BTC bull run that started in Nov. 2015 was also initiated by the same low volatility market condition that BTC is experiencing now.
Lastly, one can simply never overlook the power of the recent tether issuance.
To me, the best long opportunity is 5.8k to 6.5k if the price gets there.
This will be the first economic downturn in Bitcoin's history and how Bitcoin handles it will have the profound impact on the investor's perception of its scarce digital gold status. Some may say that it will forever just be the speculative asset and some may even argue that it will go to zero and that its whole 11 years of existence is just one gigantic bubble. Whatever the case may be, it will not be a quiet affair.
BTC- Volume, derivative, macro... Decoupling finally?For the first time since the corona virus started to ravaging the market in late Feb, BTC's price decouples from that of stock market.
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A lot of people think BTC failed its role as the recession-proof safe heaven. What they fail to understand is the true purpose of BTC, which is created to resist the unlawful seizure and confiscation, to avoid the loss of purchasing power typically associated with fiats due to their inflationary nature and to avoid the defunct that comes with the sovereign debt risk.
BTC never claimed and nor does it ever try to be the safe-heaven asset during the recession. In order to make that assertion, it needs to be the asset that has the low volatility because investors tend to hold the low-volatility assets during the time of uncertainty.
Few Macro list to go through
#1. Recession is overdue for the U.S economy and Coronavirus could just be that catalyst that pops the debt bubble. The recession talk is, perhaps, premature, but not unwarranted. All three major stock market indexs' SMA 50 are ready to cross below their SMA 200. On the bright side, SPX and DOW have bullish divergence on the daily timeframe while Nasdaq does not.
#2. If you believe the stock market will not fall below S&P's 2017 high, then we are near the bottom. IF you think we will go below 2017 high, then we still have the room to go even lower.
#3. Pay attention to this moth's unemployment related indicators, retail metrics, manufacturing-related indexes and housing-related signals. Reports about rising jobless claims along with the potential 20% unemployment figure, if proven true, could further dampen investor's confidence.
#4. Market will not fully recover from the coronovirus panic until the exponential growth slows down. Currently, U.S is approaching 10000 cases and the exponential growth does not seem to be slowing down even with the social distancing measure in place. Next week will be critical because spring break is just right around the corner...
#5. It was a little disconcerting to see 1.5 trillion stimulus package to have a very little to no impact on the market. However, you can count on president Trump to do everything he can do rescue the freefalling stock market. U.S senate just passed the coronavirus relief bill and a larger aid package is expected to follow. Moreover, ECB just announced the stimulus package as well. The effect of all these measures will be determined once we get the more definitive timeline.
#6. Did all the big players get out of their underwater positions in time or are they waiting to sell into the next rally before the market dips even further?
If BTC continues to move on its own, then we can ignore everything I said above! If not, the strength of the U.S economy will determine which kind of halving we will see.
Bitcoin- Bearish retracement vs Bullish reversal? Answer insideHello traders!
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Short-term perspective- Derivative exchanges such as Bitmex and Okex (Both have high trading volume and oI) seem to be betting against bulls at this moment. Even though buying pressure was fierce yesterday at Bitmex, it was not able to break through major sell walls. More likely, we will see the BTC price retraces below 9k once the price reaches 9.2k-9.3k because the volume is on the slow decline as the price went up.
I would continue to buy on the dip up to 8.7k lvl as long as there is no violent price rejection at 9.2k-9.3k lvl. Of course, being cognizant of the fact that BTC could very likely be in the bearish retracement phase, keep the positional size small, stop loss tight and take profit aggressively.
Mid-term perspective- Strong technical confluence and sell walls are located around 9.5k-9.7k lvl. Even if bulls can blast through 9.3k, I see bears step in and potentially end this bearish retracement. Good time to flip short at 9.5k- 9.7k lvl.
If bulls can convincingly break through 9.8k lvl and find the support at the price lvl, then we can safely assume this little correction is over.
No matter what your directional bias is, I would definitely keep buy orders between 7.8k-8k range as I still believe that is the price lvl where bullish reversal/bottom for this correction will take place.
Until next time, happy trading
BTC end of June trading rangeBTC trading range through the end of June; derivatives pricing in about 14% in either direction. Chinese re-repatriation from the S&P/USA markets has been causing a lot of volatility in both markets. Follow the money, and dont get caught holding your bag on the next thousand point drop. Set your stops, and be ready to re-enter. There is nothing wrong with taking a step back to regroup.
S&P 500 Target Zones Once Trend Line is BrokenAfter an extended downtrend to begin the month. The markets are set to break out of the natural funk. If minute wave 4 ended last week, we are moving up for minute wave 5. Since my original projection, the target movement levels and days for this movement to occur have not shifted too much. I forecast the top to occur AFTER the index breaks above the red trend line around the light blue circle on the chart.
The top should occur between 14:30 EST on September 12 and 11:35 on September 14. That means this week should see major moves up, before falling off next week. The target zones are broken down into 3 colored polygons. The green zone is the conservative top and yellow zone is still possible. The red zone is least probable and not worth holding out prior to selling.
The green zone is topped by a trend line of resistance that has been a strong reversal point for the previous months. The bottom of this zone is around 2913.06. The top of this zone is between 2940 and 2946 (dependent on time and trend line).
The yellow zone contains key target levels of:
2943.41
2958.30
2960.05
2966.78
with a zone top around 2969
The red zone is topped at Fibonacci extension 150% at 2973.51.
As always, I plan to re-evaluate as deviations occur. After minute wave 5 ends, so does minor wave 3. Minor wave 4 will take the index down for another week or two followed by another uptick for minor wave 5. Minor wave 5 will end with Intermediate wave 3. After this we only have a short intermediate wave 4, and final intermediate wave 5. Then the market will fall. Still looking at the final top in November, but it has shifted to middle November (after the mid-terms). This could be caused by election fallout, China trade issues, "NAFTA" trade issues, Federal Reserve rate changes, a combination of all or another event.
Can we watch the S&P 500 Index finally move up in September?Minute wave 4 should be over, but confirmation is still forthcoming. The blue circle in the middle of the chart will be the key determining factor. Minute wave 4 has thus far been in a tight trend channel. Minute wave 5 would be active if the line of resistance (red line) is broken through.
Once this occurs, the top could be between 2928.92 - 2963.80. Based on derivative analysis of the current waves, minute wave 5 could end as early as 11:35 EST on September 12 and as late as 13:25 on September 13. This is still a short window for this wave to complete itself so be prepared for large moves.
Quick movement in a short period of time could revolve around imposition or delay of tariffs against China, positive jobs data on Friday, or another unforeseen piece of news.
Continue to check back for more ideas and updates
Looking At New Bottom For Minute Wave 4Based on today's movement, the diversion in the moving average I track confirm the index still has room to drop. Good news has the bottom tomorrow. Bad news, the bottom is still one day away. I will update my article on the top of minute wave 5 once 4 ends.
Bottom appears to be between 2868 and 2876. Not far, but will be quick.
Stay tuned for more!
Nailed Last Drop, Here is Next S&P 500 TopI am back with another Elliott Wave Forecast on the S&P 500 Index . After detailed research and analysis, I identified the recent bottom, which occurred today, ahead of time. I have identified the next top. I have identified 3 colored polygons. The green zone will most likely contain the top, but the yellow polygon is also possible. The red zone is unlikely, but anything is possible. I entered long positions today and plan to sell once the green zone is hit.
The key levels of interest are:
3070.31
2976.31
2973.51
2960.05
2947.87
2946.10
2943.41
2934.89
2931.95
2931.43
The tight grouping of levels between 2931.43 and 2947.87 make this the most likely zone. I have also identified a trend line of resistance. This will most likely dictate the top based on timing. The top should occur between 11:15 Eastern time on September 10 and 14:00 on September 10.
The full analysis and complete article will be posted tonight or tomorrow morning on ElliottWaveIdeas.com