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Derivatives

$GMX/USDT 12h (#Bybit) Rising wedge breakdown and retestGMX (f.k.a. Gambit) lost 100EMA support and got rejected after pulling back to it, bearish continuation would make sense. ⚡️⚡️ #GMX/USDT ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: Binance Futures, ByBit USDT Signal Type: Regular (Short) Leverage: Isolated (4.2X) Amount: 5.0% Current Price: 72.890 Entry Zone: 74.345 - 77.445 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 67.335 2) 60.890 3) 54.450 Stop Targets: 1) 83.055 Published By: @Zblaba TSX:GMX #GMXUSDT #Gambit #Derivatives #DEx gmx.io
Short
by TradingOn
The Fed Just Broke SomethingThe chart above shows the CBOE Equity Put Call Ratio (CPCS) . Last week the put-call ratio broke its all-time record high, surpassing the levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis and the March 2020 market crash by almost twice as much. In this post, I will explain my thoughts about what's going on. I welcome others to also give their thoughts in the comments below. Let's begin with the basics of the put-call ratio. The put-call ratio is simply a measure of the relative amount of trading in put options versus call options. Typically the put-call ratio rises during periods of extreme fear in the market, when volatility is also high. Historically, the put-call ratio has been used as a contrarian indicator, meaning that when it is very high it signals that too many market participants are bearish and when it is very low it signals that too many market participants are bullish. Typically anything above 1 is considered too bearish. A put-call ratio above 1 has historically marked significant stock market bottoms. However, something very strange has been happening recently. The put-call ratio has been exploding to such extreme levels that some people are now saying the indicator is broken. Last week, the put-call ratio reached an insanely high level (2.4). Yet, on the day this record spike happened, the VIX was in the low 20s, which is only modestly elevated, (see the chart below). As the chart above shows, a VIX in the low 20s is only slightly above normal. The put-call ratio was so extreme last week that one would have expected the VIX to be off-the-charts. In the chart below, I've calculated the general area (marked by a flag) of where we would have expected the VIX to be if the put-call ratio accurately corresponded to such an extreme put-call ratio. Some market analysts and many people on social media are attributing the unprecedented spike to 0DTE , or Zero Days To Expiration, options trading. Zero Days To Expiration refers to options that are traded on the same day (or within 24 hours) that they expire. This speculative form of trading has proliferated over the past year. Those who cite 0DTE as the reason for a malfunctioning put-call ratio argue that its utility as a contrarian indicator has become confounded at best, or noisy and meaningless at worst. The below chart shows the proliferation of Zero Days To Expiration options trading. When compared alongside the put-call ratio, we can visually garner a potentially high correlation. Some market analysts have stated that the proliferation of 0DTE options trading has become so disruptive that not only has it broken the role that the put-call ratio plays as a contrarian indicator, but it has broken the essential role that the VIX plays in measuring volatility. The VIX, which is calculated based on only S&P 500 options expiring 23 to 37 days into the future, may not be properly capturing the true panicked nature of market participants who are mostly trading options with much less time until expiration. Yet, questions remain, even when considering the rising prevalence of 0DTE options trading. Specifically, why is 0DTE causing puts trading, in particular, to increase so dramatically? The answer is likely that 0DTE option trading is not the only cause of the exploding put-call ratio. Some informed market participants have argued that the Fed's extreme monetary tightening is largely to blame, though their reasoning is not as obvious as it may seem. Although it's likely true that the Fed's tightening is likely driving up fear and causing market participants to load up on puts. The more informed explanation involves an arbitrage strategy that seeks to take advantage of those who are loading up on puts. An academic paper entitled, Put Option Exercise and Short Stock Interest Arbitrage , explains this strategy. The strategy takes advantage of those holding deep in-the-money puts with no time value remaining and which ought to be exercised such that the cash can earn interest. Above is a screenshot of the academic paper, which I cannot distribute because of copyright restrictions. I can only show the abstract which is publicly available. For educational purposes, I will cite a small excerpt from the article to explain exactly how the strategy works: The game involves capturing short open interest. The game, dubbed “short stock interest arbitrage,” involves simultaneously buying and selling a large (relative to existing open interest), but equal, number of deep ITM puts and then immediately exercising the long puts. Since exercises are randomly assigned to open short positions, the arbitragers systematically capture the dominant share of the total short open interest and thereby earn the dominant share of the forfeit interest. Now that the Federal Reserve has dramatically hiked interest rates, this strategy is much more lucrative than in the past since the interest that can be earned by arbitragers is much higher. Furthermore, the stock market's decline in 2022 caused more puts to become in the money thereby expanding the volume of puts traded by arbitrageurs. Since this strategy is non-directional, meaning the strategy involves simultaneously buying and selling an equal number of puts, its net effect is theoretically zero. Thus, this strategy's proliferation may be causing the put-call ratio to malfunction. Despite these reasons, other market participants have speculated that the extremely high put-call ratio is due to large institutions and other informed market players loading up on large hedges because they believe a major market crash is coming. While this is largely speculative, there is some evidence that informed institutions are becoming increasingly concerned about a liquidity crisis due to the Federal Reserve's tightening. Last month, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) recently issued an unusual warning about the potential for a liquidity crisis in the global FX swaps and forwards market. Link to the BIS article: www.bis.org The BIS, which is often thought of as the central bank for central banks, explained that dollar payment obligations in the FX swaps and forwards market are generally not recorded on balance sheets and that the risks associated with these debts could be understated by tens of trillions of dollars. In effect, the Federal Reserve's rapid rate hikes have caused the U.S. dollar to rapidly become more valuable relative to other currencies, creating risks in the FX swaps and forwards market that were not fully anticipated. In some regards, the actual causes of the breakdown of the put-call ratio are not as relevant as the mere fact that it has broken down. According to Exter's Pyramid (shown below), during periods of extreme instability of asset classes lower down on the inverted pyramid, everything higher up becomes some degree more unstable. The meteoric rise in Treasury yields has made everything above shakier, especially derivatives. Rapidly rising Treasury yields are destabilizing the highly-leveraged derivatives market in unanticipated ways.   Now that U.S. Treasurys suddenly yield much more, this means that capital will tend to flow lower down the pyramid into them. Leaving riskier assets higher up vulnerable to collapse. Despite all of this, some market participants continue to believe that the put-call ratio is still a reliable contrarian indicator. These market participants argue that whenever fear is high, people always say "this time is different" when in fact it is not. They believe that not only is the put-call ratio indicator still working but it is indicating a high chance for a major short squeeze. Only time will tell what will become of the current situation. Yet, one thing is for certain. Despite the highest put-call ratio on record last week, the rules of good trading and good investing remain the same. No matter the fear, volatility or crisis that may transpire, if one adheres to these principles, one will be successful. Sources Barraclough, Kathryn and Whaley, Robert E., Put Option Exercise and Short Stock Interest Arbitrage (May 17, 2013). Journal of Investment Management (JOIM), First Quarter 2013, Available at SSRN: ssrn.com
INDEX:CPCS
by SpyMasterTrades
76
$BTCDOM/USDT 2D (#BinanceFutures) Big falling wedge breakoutBitcoin Dominance Index seems about to reverse, ahead of the Ethereum Merge it's an opportunity to hedge against big Altcoins. ⚡️⚡️ #BTCDOM/USDT ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: Binance Futures Signal Type: Regular (Long) Leverage: Isolated (2X) Amount: 11.8% Current Price: 1197.3 Entry Zone: 1192.8 - 1144.0 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 1168.4 2) 1380.2 3) 1469.0 Stop Targets: 1) 1069.7 Published By: @Zblaba Risk/Reward= 1:1.25 | 1:2.15 | 1:3.05 Expected Profit= +21.08% | +36.26% | +51.46% Possible Loss= -16.90% Fib. Retracement= 0.382 | 0.559 | 0.702 Margin Leverage= 2x Estimated Gain-time= 3-4 months Tags: #BTCDOMUSDT #BTCD #BitcoinDominance #Index #Futures #Derivatives #Dominance Component Info: www.binance.com
Long
by TradingOn
UniDex: a DeFi aggregator for traders🟢 Here is a project that is off the radar in its embryonic phase, whose intention is to be an aggregator of Swaps, Options, Perpetual Contracts, etc. The risk is very high: the token is not yet on any CEX. Only traded on the Ethereum network and Arbitrum network. 📝 Definition "UniDex's primary mission is to provide the most seamless trading experience by aggregating anything & everything. We aim to be the Nasdaq of DeFi. UniDex is a DeFi platform that aims to provide a hub for traders to access the best rates for financial instruments within the ecosystem. We envision UniDex as a platform similar to NASDAQ, where traders can place orders for any type of financial instrument, and UniDex will route the order to the best available rate against hundreds of sources & matching orders. In the short and long term, UniDex plans to offer a range of trading tools to support this experience, including... Options Aggregation Swap Aggregation Perpetual Aggregation Cross-chain trading Exotic leverage trading pairs Advanced analytics and many more opportunities to come " 📈 DeFi For now, the token can be traded on Uniswap (Ethereum network), and on TraderJoe (Arbitrum network).
ULong
by andre_007
Trading 101 - What is a Derivative & why are they revolutionary?Derivatives trading! What I believe has been the absolute market revolution since shares. Derivatives might sound complicated and something you would hear from a professor or a know-it-all businessman – but they’re really not. I am no academic or even remotely one of the smartest guy’s in the world. And if I can grasp the idea and understanding of derivatives, I pretty much guarantee you will too. Also, if you want to take trading seriously and really make a living with it, you’ll need to understand derivatives trading sometime in your career. Let’s start at the very beginning. What is a derivative? – Collins English Dictionary – ‘A derivative is an investment that depends on the value of something else’ When it comes to trading, a derivative is a financial contract between two parties whose value is ‘derived’ from another (underlying) asset. Let’s break that down more simply: A derivative is a financial contract (CFDs, Spread Trading, Futures, Forwards, Options &Warrants) Between two parties (the buyer and seller) Whose value (the market’s price) Is derived (depends on or comes from) Another underlying asset (Share, index, commodity, currency, bond, interest-rate, crypto-currency etc…) You’ll find that the derivative’s market price mirrors that of the underlying asset’s price. Why trade using derivatives? The absolute beauty about trading derivatives is that they are a cheaper and a more profitable way to speculate on the future price movements of a market without buying the asset itself. You don’t get all the benefits with derivatives What’s probably important to note with derivatives, is this. When you buy a derivative’s contract, you’re not actually buying the physical asset. You’re simply making a bet on where you expect the price to go. EXAMPLE: When you buy actual shares of a company, means you’ll be able to attend AGMs (Annual General Meetings), Vote and claim dividends from a company. When you trade derivatives on the underlying share, means you’ll be exposed to the value of the shares and the price movements – and that’s it! As a trader, when you buy or sell a derivative, you’re not actually investing in the underlying asset but rather just making a bet (speculation) on where you believe the market’s price will head. This gives you the advantage and opportunity to: Buy low (go long) a derivative of the underlying asset and sell it at a higher price for a profit or Sell high (go short) a derivative of the underlying asset and buy it back at a lower price for a profit Remember when I said it was cheaper and more profitable? You can thank margin With derivatives, you’ll normally pay a fraction of the price of the total sum and still be exposed to the full value of the asset (share, index, currency etc…) The fraction of the price paid is called ‘margin’. EXAMPLE: To buy and own 10 Anglo shares at R390 per share will cost you R3,900 (R390 per share X 10 shares). To buy and be exposed to 10 Anglo shares using derivatives, and the margin of the contract is 10% per share, means you’ll only pay R390 (R390 per share X 10% margin per derivative X 10 shares). I’m sure you can see that with derivatives, you’ll be exposed to more and pay less which will gear up your potential profits or losses versus when trading shares. This is why we call derivatives, geared financial instruments. Enjoyed the article comment below and follow for more... Trade well, Live free Timon MATI Trader Also my socials are below thanks to Trading View.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
$DYDX - Bulls breaking FALLING WEDGEHello my Fellow TraderZ, Few days ago I made an analysis on $DYDX ranging inside Descending Channel Pattern on 4 HTF. Although price gave a Fakeout and create a Double Bottom and again came back inside the channel and breaking upward of the channel. BULLISH DIVERGENCE is still valid + Price is trying to come above the EMA 55 on 4 HTF + Breakout Volume is Pretty good enough. Also look on DTF, #DYDX is forming a FALLING WEDGE Pattern which is generally Bullish in nature. For strong confirmation look for the daily close above the Wedge and the Resistance area of $1.30. TP 1 : $1.41 TP2 : $1.52 SL : according to your own R:R Note : never underestimate #BITCOIN which could ruin the Party. Happy Trading Fam. CHEERS!!!
Long
by TRADER-GOKU
$DYDX - BULLISH DIVERGENCEHello my Fellow TraderZ, Today we'll be talking about $DYDX. We all know #DYDX is a Decentralized Exchange's native token. One of my favorites for the long term portfolio. Here we see that in the recent pump price got rejected by the High Confluence Zone(containing TL1 + DESCENDING CHANNEL TL + HORIZONTAL RESISTANCE) and now back to its SUPPORT once again. Clearly a BULLISH DIVERGENCE on 4HTF is easily visible and I personally very excited to take this Trade. Ofcourse we should not overlook #BTC as it is heavily co-related to SPX500 which is itself in bearish pressure due to FED's Hawkish Rate Hikes. But still keep $DYDX in eye .
Long
by TRADER-GOKU
How do crypto options contracts affect the market?Hi Friends Today we will explain the option contracts affect on crypto and other markets. First lets see whats an option contract? Options are derivative contracts that entitle the purchaser to buy or sell the connected asset at a predetermined price before the contract expires. There are two types of options , call and put. The right to buy is known as a ‘call’ option, whereas the right to sell the underlying asset is called a ‘put’ option. Every options contract comes with a specified expiry date which is the last date for settling the contract. The price at which the options contract is settled is called the strike price . This is the price at which the options contract owner is allowed to buy/sell the underlying cryptocurrency. The price at which an options contract is bought is called the premium . Now, when would you buy a cryptocurrency? Obviously when it is trading at a price that is lower than it should be,right? This means that you find it to be undervalued and you expect its price to rise in the future so you can sell higher and make money. But what if the crypto price fell instead? Wouldn’t it be nice if somebody would still buy the cryptocurrency from you at a higher price? For that you would require selling rights of the cryptocurrency and you will buy a put option. Now on the flip side when would you sell a cryptocurrency? Of course, when you think that it is trading at a price higher than it should be. This means that you find it to be overvalued and expect it to fall from here. But what if the price of the cryptocurrency rose instead? You would then want to add more crypto at a lower price and sit on assets that are valued higher than your purchase price. For this you would need buying rights or a call option. Since options allow traders the right to buy/sell assets at a predetermined price they shield them from the volatility of the crypto markets. Moreover the volume of the call or put options in the market signals the direction in which investors expect the markets to move. More put options indicate that investors expect the markets to fall whereas more call options indicate that investors expect the market to rally. Now when the option contracts are near their expiration date, large players try to drive the underlying crypto price into a favourable range depending on the option contracts they have purchased. This is done so that the deal can become profitable. In summary: Buying a Call (Long) = Bullish -----> you think the crypto will be worth more later so you want to lock in todays price to buy later at a profit. Selling a Call (Short) = Bearish -----> you think the crypto will be worth less later so you want to lock in todays price to sell later at a profit. Buying a Put (Short) = Bearish ------> you think the crypto will be worth less later so you want to lock in todays price to sell later at a profit. Selling a Put (Long) = Bullish --------> you think the crypto will be worth more later so you want to lock in todays price to buy later at a profit. I hope you enjoy this education please share me your opinions in comments. thank you all specially @TradingView team
CRYPTOCAP:BTCEducation
by TraderAmin-KZ
Derivatives, Synthetics, FOREX...Next Big Opportunity?For the next bull market cycle, I believe the derivatives sector, synthetic assets, equities, commodities and FOREX can provide an above-average exponential gain. That's because the blockchain and cryptocurrency market tends to swallow the traditional market (I didn't say that... it was a trader with 30 years of experience who abandoned the traditional market). In this comparison, I put some of the projects that I consider to have upside potential, after listening to some analysts and also from my own experience. I also put on the chart the price of BTC and ETH for benchmark. Projects and tokens: Synthetix (SNX) (via Optimism or Ethereum) GMX (GMX) (via Arbitrum or Avalanche) Gains Network (GNS) (via Polygon) dYdX (DYDX) (via Etherem) Mango Markets (MNGO) (via Solana) Perpetual Protocol (PERP) (via Optimism or Ethereum) Deri Protocol (DERI) (via BSC or Arbitrum)
COINBASE:SNXUSDLong
by andre_007
1