Despair
Bitcoin - Market Cycle Psychology - Road to despairA double peak scenario is likely. It seems that the ETF news is a stretch, and the increases depend on it. We closed the CME gap at 62k. Falling volume indicates some change in trend. The decrease in volume and the increase in price also suggest an irrational increase in the current price. We stop at 30k, there is a CME gap at 32k. Then we should see the area around EVEN 10k!
If there is no double top formation it means we only had a bear trap and we are going to 200k +
NKLA trends lowerNow its pretty to point out that NKLA at the moment is stay way stock for share buyers. Today NKLA pumped maybe trying to short out novice investors by "buying the dip."
NEWS
-GM says it wont move forward with NKLA, which is a smart play as Trevor Milton is being investigated
-SPACS are rumor to be in a bubble and NKLA bubble poped from past FORD ceo interview
TA
-Well we are in a downtrend (no shit), so the pump today still goes along with the downtrend, with so much negativity I personally wont be buyer till $9, but support lines add up to 11.09-13.95, which may be the new trading range for a long period of time
-RSI is below 39.1, which according to bullish price action it would have to stay above
-MACD is flipping bullish, but news catalyist doesn't look so hot
Final Thoughts
I personally have no stake, not even a put. I would be a small buyer between 11.09-13.95, but I would wait till it dips under 11.09 creating "despair" in the market cycle, which could be absolute bottom. This range would last until theres a breakthrough or even sales that come in which would happen in 3-4 years. Again not a buyer here and wait for the final drop of probably Trevor dumping and hitting stop loses of swing traders and long term holders. Plus the EV market is tanking, so not a good buying opportunity.
This doesn't add upThis was the day America took the lead in total COVID cases. This is the day that America was the least American considering today's record-breaking unemployment numbers. Yet, on the stock market, the day was overbought. More overbought throughout the beginning of COVID
Be well, see you soon!
ADABTC - A project I love, but looks bearish longtermFirst off, I closed my positions on a perfected 8, 9, 13 on the 3D chart because the signal is just fantastic in that timeframe and besides the wedge it hit important MAs.
What I see now, is a massive falling wedge to the disbelief stage of an asset where I'm going to be a big buyer.
BUT the level is so damn low, will have to wait for weeks. Just be patient and wait if we have an entry than.
Leave your comment and opinion.
2019 in a nutshell. The bottom depending on who you talk to! Good day traders
As I'm sure a lot of you are aware, technically, there are many similarities between the 2014/2015 bear market and the current 2018/2019 bear market cycles but there is plenty of debate going on as to where we will actually end up bottoming.
Many analysts are calling for a bottom close to $2500 as this fits the 2014/2015 bottoming criteria on the weekly chart where, like in Jan 2015, we would again find support at the 88.6 fib retracement level ($2400), however, other credible analysts are calling for a more turbulent capitulation and a bottom closer to $1000.
There seem to be 3 camps of bottom-callers:
1) The "we have already bottomed" analysts who think $3157 was it and it's only up from here.
2) The $1800 - $2500 bottom-callers
3) The close to $1k bottom-callers
Personally, I think we will have a strong bounce from all 3 levels but we will probably eventually bottom below $1k in August/September later this year, when true capitulation kicks in.
If we are following the same pattern as the bear market in 2014/2015, then recent flash crash to $3400 on Tuesday might have been a temporary double bottom and we might actually be heading through our daily SMA50 to potentially test our daily SMA100 instead as the herd slowly fomo when they start believing the bottom was in at $3157.
In the blue-shaded ellipses, we have our 2018 downtrend to our $6k support and our 2014 downtrend until July where we broke minor uptrend support. Notice we also had a minor uptrend before we broke that $6k support and fell to our current $3157 low which is reflected in the yellow ellipses.
If we continue following the same pattern as we did in 2014, as per the yellow shaded ellipses, then we should manage to get above our daily SMA50, which has been our most recent resistance and is currently sitting around $3690, and we should have a rally soon to somewhere around $5k, potentially up to $5200 depending on the level of fomo as the "we have already bottomed" bottomers pile in. Good to see that we've managed to get back above $3550 for now. We currently have strong bullish divergence on the 12 hour MFI and RSI, and should be retesting our daily SMA50 resistance yet again.
This is where we'll test our daily SMA100 as resistance for the first time since October 2018. This will also be a 161.8 fib extension of our recent wave up between $3157 and $4273 in December 2018 where recently we had a 61.8 fib retracement afterwards.
We should then get rejected by the daily SMA100 and crash back through our $3k support (when the herd realise that's not the bottom) to our temporary bottom between $2150 - $2400 where the second camps of bottom-callers will be waiting with their buy orders. There will be plenty of liquidity at these levels for a strong bounce as the herd will again believe that this is the official bottom, only to repeat the fomo yet again, with an upper limit of our $4k-4400 resistance.
This is where we will drop and true capitulation will take place as we slice through that $2k support like a hot knife through butter, then the $1k, finding support somewhere around $800. This is where we will revert back to the initial uptrend of the prior bull cycle and a new market cycle will commence from there.
The herd will be shocked as expected but this will be the true despair stage of the market bubble.
Good luck and happy trading!
2014/2015 Bear Market Cycle:
2018/2019 Bear Market Cycle:
XRP Stands For “NOPE”By request (shoutout to earduman!), here’s a quick analysis of RIPPLE.
The BITFINEX XRPUSD chart says it with the most clarity: We’ve failed to break out of the 50 EMA three times, going on four. What’s worse is the 200 EMA has reared its ugly head to double-team our poor alt coin.
Support shows at $0.46 with the next level at a suicidal drop of $0.22 (Yikes. There’s likely some support in the $0.30s but it doesn’t look strong).
If the Red Bull traders could just sell and get back to their eSports, sooner rather than later, the rest of us can get in and out of the “despair” phase of the bubble. That would be ideal.
NOTE: The crypto market rarely ever hands us the “ideal”. So don’t hold your breath.
DISCLAIMER: I could be wrong. Some heavy hitters are entering the market (Soros & others). I would expect Ripple to be one of the first alt coins to enter their radar. So keep an eye on unnatural movement (i.e. pump and dumps).
Ether and me, what does the next week or two look like?I'm not convinced we've been through despair yet. This falling wedge is quite interesting though, and if BTC pulls through 9k, I guess the picture changes.
The RSI is as oversold as it's ever been, and continues to be, unlike previous crashes. So, there has to be some kind of uptick there soon.
But, there might be one final drop into the pit?