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Deutschebank

EUFN: European financials are in danger hereI think we can get a retracement in the financial sector, and Europe is in worse shape than the US in general. It wouldn't surprise me to have some negative news pop out, surrounding Italy's referendum, Deutsche Bank, Italian Banks, UK banks, Brexit, etc. Quite a few potential catalysts for volatility, so, if we see this ETF break the linear regression channel support, we will probably see a rapid selloff. Keep your eyes open, it might be safer to stand aside, and book succesful long trades, or maybe even take a couple strategic shorts. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:EUFNShort
by IvanLabrie
Lack of enthusiasm, Deutsche Bank and Margin DebtA divergence between the volume and the value of the index indicates a lack of enthusiasm with this new top. This ocurrs just before August, which is a typically bearish month, and under the systemic risk posed by Deutsche Bank. Moreover, NYSE Margin Debt chart reached a peak some months ago (see www.advisorperspectives.com). In my opinion, there is no substantial reason to expect a consolidation of the index above 2150, so be careful, because maybe we are listening to the swan song of the global financial market.
FX:SPX500
by JuanAugusto
1
CAT is On Its Last LifeCaterpillar is known for being a global economic bellwether, and considering it recent stock performance you'd think economic activity is alive and well. Unfortunately, this is not the case. In fact, despite CAT "beating" its recent Q3 earnings estimates (which rely heavily on accounting gimmicks), the global mining and construction company reported that all is not well while lowering its forward guidance. Chairman and C.E.O Doug Oberhelman said "economic weakness throughout much of the world persists and, as a result, most of our end markets remain challenged." He further went on to say, "in North America, the market has an abundance of used construction equipment, rail customers have substantial number of idle locomotives, and around the world there are a significant number of idle mining trucks." It's important to know that global sales have contracted for nearly three straight years, and trouble with their business began once the massive commodity bubble began to pop in 2011. CAT v Deutsche Bank Tracked Commodities The fundamentals prove negative for the stock going forward. At 47.93x trailing 12M earnings, the stock is grossly inflated over its 5-year average of 16.93 - where many of the company's industry peers currently reside. We currency foresee further weakness throughout the global economy, especially in China. Although, the Chinese government is fight tooth and nail, running deep monthly budget deficits, we do not expect China to regain its previous growth expansion before a financial crisis breaks out - PBoC boots net liquidity to the financial sector by 1.06 trillion CNY, or a 2,022 percent increase YoY. The People’s Bank of China has increased net liquidity to the financial sector by a staggering +2,022% year-to-date, to 1.06 trillion CNY. If you want to learn more follow @Macro_View on TWTR and go to macroview.co to get on our waiting list to subscribe.
NYSE:CATShort
by MacroView_Research
Short book: DB - Broke below KEL, fade the short squeezeToday we added a couple shorts, I'm posting the trades we currently have open but not providing entry/stop suggestions. Only trade them if you have a trading strategy, or, ask me if you're interested in learning more about the one we use (Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' and 'Time at mode'). We have some worrying bearish signals, so it's a good idea to have a market neutral position, picking stocks to short, while still looking for longs in undervalued companies. See related ideas for the rest of the trades we took. You may still be able to join them or wait for a secondary entry when/if we decide to add to them. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:DBShort
by IvanLabrie
DB: Contrarian long opportunityI'm pretty sure 97% of people were short DB lately, and pessimistic about its outlook. I was on that bandwagon, and shorting every rally for some time, but the latest developments made me change my mind on it. I think we have a great opportunity to long the stock here, if not already in that is. I'm in with a 0.25% risk position, and will add gradually to it, until I reach 1% exposure. We have to monitor the activity here, but it's possible this was a terminal wedge or ending diagonal pattern, in Elliott Wave parlance. We can add to longs on a break of Friday's close, to the upside, risking a drop under the lowest low, and add more once we break above the earnings resistance above, at around 13.72, using the same stop loss. We can also buy dips under 12.38 but I think it's unlikely to happen here. We need to reach 14.89 within 3 days to confirm the bullish momentum in the short term. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:DBLong
by IvanLabrie
10
EURUSD: Euro and inverted Euro, how to avoid bias and some tipsIn this chart, I'm looking at the Euro and an inverted Euro chart, to help me determine if I have a bias when trading it. Seeing the bottom chart, I feel it is a long here, specially since we're breaking out above an inside trendline. You can refer to my analysis in related ideas. I also see a short in the inverted chart, with Friday's action being quite decisive for me, when seeing this chart presented in this way. What do you see in these two? Ask yourselves this question also: what is the stupidest trade to take right now? Of all the instruments you follow...what would be the trading idea, that would make you laugh and mock whoever presented it to you? Let me know what you think, we can benefit from asking ourselves questions, and others, and thus, enrich our trading view. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
XAGUSD: Weekly uptrend and quarterly analysisThe weekly chart is largely bullish, and we also count with the quarterly 'Time at mode' signal that implies that price can reach 32.316 by July 31st 2017 or sooner, after the downtrend that started on April 2013 expired. I am long, and placed a tight stop as signaled on chart. If we get this right, it's a massive home run trade, so don't miss it. If you're not in yet, it's not too late to join. Risk 0.5-1%. The idea is that Silver held the uptrend speed line in the weekly, and we had massive buying volume when doing so, and a weekly oversold buy signal, courtesy of the RgMov trend analysis indicator. Now, with a 10 week level on close, the market is ready to launch higher from here after next week action confirms it. The fundamental backdrop further confirms this idea, but we'll have to wait and see. Like any trade this can fail, but if it works, the reward is well worth the risk. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
Deutsche Bank – Series of horrors, no reversal signal on chartsDeutsche Bank is smashed from all sides. The bank has gone from being Europe’s best in 1980s to being the worst in 2016. What went wrong? Check out Panmure Gordon’s Senior Market Commentator David Buik detail Deutsche Bank’s journey from Best to Worst - www.youtube.com Don’t trust the rebound Shares are up more than 3% at 10.85 levels. This is because the bank denied capitalization problems and has decided to sell its insurance unit Abbey Assurance. However, not that official denial is always confirmation… don’t trust anything unless it is officially denied. Technical outlook There are no major signs of reversal – No bullish price RSI divergence on hourly or 4-hr or daily chart. Neither do we have candlestick patterns that suggest reversal. Infact yesterday’s candle was a spinning top of sorts…though it appears in a corrective and cannot be called as a top… still it suggests indecision. In the short-run bearish invalidation is seen only if prices see a daily close above 11.13 (Sep 21 high). Till then there is little hope for bulls… bears can expect fresh sell-off below yesterday’s low of 10.65.
FWB:DBK
by TipTVFinance
1
REPORT. Prediction of the S&P and how you can react Q4-Q1 (2017)Gold as save haven? No expiration timeframe, no extension possible. S&P500 correlated to deutsche bank (DB) Highly correlation between them. A price of 12,00 for one stock deutsche bank is to high. take a look at this figure: in bad fincial times we seek really horrible figures... On this moment Europe and the US have more or less the same problems in political and financial way as in 2008 take a look at my last report: we are seeing that gold is a save investing, and the S&P reacts on financials. information derived from Bloomberg, ING TA/FA none of these information influence the market, trading is at you'r own risk.
FX:SPX500Short
by tmp_cox
Is the S&P500 overrated on this moment? Maby DB has influence..Maby there is coming a very hard fall in the S&P500 soon, but why? If we look our graph were i plot GOLD, DB (deutsche bank) and the S&P500. We can make a prediction of the S&P500 based on deutsche bank. Deutsche bank is crashing hard last time with company results. And if we look at our figure we can understand that the S&P500 is in a bullmarket and also correlated to DB. We also known that there are into the S&P500 a lot financial institutes that really affects the stockprice of DB. If we make a prediction about the S&P500 we can say three things: - MACD and MACD-signal will cross each other, were we go under zero (this means a sell signal) - RSI is to high for a to long period (this means a sell signal) - Bollinger bands are highly in volatility (there could be happen something negative or positive) - MA will crosses under the Basis of the Bollinger bands (this means a sell signal) - DB is correlated to S&P500, Gold is oppositing them Information derived from Bloomberg, ING TA-FA
FX:SPX500Short
by tmp_cox
DB: Quarterly downtrend in playDB has a quarterly 'Time at mode' downtrend active, that aims for 10.34 to be hit before July 2017. If you are a frequent 'Key hidden levels' chatroom user, and a subscriber to Tim West's indicator, you should be short DB from around $17, like we are. We are now trailing stops down, but adding an entry here isn't a bad idea at all. Risk a rally to 15.21, and target 10.34. Tim West's analysis calls for DB at $0 in the not too distant future, so keep that in mind as well. If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
NYSE:DBShort
by IvanLabrie
1