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Devaluation

Silver miners looking bullishThis monthly chart of the Golbal X Silver Miners looks bullish. After a decade of pullback and consolidations, silver miners seem ready to rise. We like the recent increase in volume and the bullish structure on the MACD. A break above $39 would exit the downtrend line linking the tops and would confirm the exit of this long wedge. Next resistances at $53then $94. A break below $22.50 would invalidate this view. -------------- In the context of gold and copper making new all time highs , the devaluation of currencies by countries around the world, starting with the US, and the increasing needs of silver for industrial production of alternative energies solutions, we think that silver and silver miners are due for a catch-up.
AMEX:SILLong
by waverity
Inflation to accelerate again or not?Today, we want to draw attention to the price differences now versus a year ago for multiple assets. While some commodities make a case for the reacceleration of inflation (presuming they continue higher), others do not. We would like to hear your opinion on the subject. Also, feel free to share any other assets we omitted. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL (WTI oil), down approximately 2.7% compared to the price 365 days ago. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of Copper CFD. Its price is up about 11% versus a year ago. Illustration 1.03 The picture above portrays the daily chart of Aluminium futures, which are nearly flat compared to the price 365 days ago. Illustration 1.04 Illustration 1.04 shows the daily chart of Platinum CFD. This commodity is up slightly more than 15% versus a year ago. Illustration 1.05 Illustration 1.05 displays the daily chart of Corn. In the last 365 days, corn lost about 27% of its value. Illustration 1.06 The illustration above shows the daily chart of Rice futures down approximately 5% versus a year ago. Illustration 1.07 Illustration 1.07 exhibits the daily chart of Pork cutout futures. The price of this commodity is down more than 6% versus a year ago. Illustration 1.08 Illustration 1.08 presents a daily chart of Soybean futures. Within the past 365, Soybean futures lost about 3% of their value. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
5
Next leg up seems certain here.-Strong break out of descending channel -Resting on .618 -Will likely backtest the channel first (BTC loves to backtest triangle/wedge/channel breakouts) -Approaching the 10 year trendline I wrote about in my previous analysis ~$80,000, 2.618. Very interested to see what happens up there. -Bulls defended the relatively steep 1Y support -MACD ready to cross over again I was a little spooked by the last dip, but strong hands & cool wits prevailed. Defended the 50k level beautifully in the end. I say we are ready for 60-70 now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by AspiringPro
Dollar devaluation to continue - just a matter of timingJanuary we saw a steady grind higher in US equities until this week. This week felt very much like a repeat of last month, but the sell-off this time was bigger and faster. The market commentators are already speculating that this could be the start of a major correction in equities. The driving force? A rapid fall in long-term US treasury bond prices. Bond prices suffer when inflation expectations start to materialise. Bonds pay a fixed rate of return and their face value remains fixed, which means inflation eats away at their value two-fold. By contrast, equities should benefit from inflation. So why are equitiy prices also falling? Prices have been screaming higher ever since the Corona pandemic recovery measures were announced. This is due to record amounts of stimulus announced to try and keep interest rates low (therefore high bond prices) and encourage the economy to stay liquid. Low interest rates force investors to try and find other places to get a decent return and this fueled the equities markets. In essense, the value of equities has become relative to other assets, a function of the market as opposed to the equities actually being perceived as more valuable fundementally. So we may have reached a potential tipping point, where bond markets are no longer convinced that the FED will be able to keep interest rates low without also triggering meaningful inflation. Since equities have become more dependent on bond prices than fundementals, we could see that inflation fears cause equity prices to fall, defying the logic that many have been touting as a reason to drive equity prices higher. All this being said, there are lots of deflationary pressures ongoing at the moment and we won't know if inflation has really arrived for years yet. It is the new Brexit topic of financial markets and there will continue to be a strong case for both infaltion and deflation, but more importantly the timing of any real inflation. As the market tries to make it's mind up on this, there are likely to be some fairly aggresive movements in both directions. One thing that looks more certain, increased volatility could be around for a while. The dollar has benefitted this week as nervous asset sellers move into dollar cash. Ironically, given the inflation fears that are driving the sell-off this has boosted the dollar and created a bout of short term deflation. I see two outcomes from here, both bearish for the dollar on different timescales: 1) Inflation fears prevail, the bond sell-off continues. This would put further upwards pressure on the dollar, but then subside as assets are reallocated into inflation hedged investments such as commodities. This should then lead to a long term continuation of the dollar devaluation. 2) Inflation fears subside, and cash is redeloyed back into the bonds. This will create an immediate downside pressure on the dollar. I favour the second option, and propse this tight stop trade for the coming week. If the stop gets hit, I would consider re-entering long later in the week.
Long
by ckeiderling
2
Hello $2075 The 'Stimulus Optimism Trade' is back Around the world, major fiat currencies are looking at major devaluation. In the US, a stimulus deal is in the works with a bipartisan group of lawmakers in discussions for $900+ billion deal to stimulate the economy. Last month's jobs report showed that economic recovery is slowing down. This may have tipped Democrats and Republicans to considering more stimulus. On the other side of the Atlantic, the EU has been working on a stimulus deal. However, the plan may flop as Hungary & Poland threatening to veto the deal. Reports from Brussels say that policymakers are working to circumvent the two countries. Should the deal go through, the EURO will be under pressure. Japan's Suga run into problems with convincing lawmakers in the country to approve a $900b deal. His approval ratings are low as second wave of coronavirus spreads in Japan. However, this will put more pressure on lawmakers to pass the stimulus bill. What's up with Central Banks? The FED, ECB & BOJ are expected to keep rates low this month. These banks also hold an unprecedented level of assets in form of treasuries and stocks. They won't stop buying until they are convinced that recovery has been achieved. Why is all these important? The DXY, EURO & JPY are some of the most used currencies in the world. The actions by governments around the world will devalue currencies leaving metal Commodities as the best safe havens. I expect XAUUSD to break the ATHs in 2021 through to 2023.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by GrizzlyBearBee
1
"Free stuff" part 2: Just print money!Reminder of my idea about taxing the rich as a solution: And so (high) inflation.... Here is an economist article on it, they have a chart with the budget balance. www.economist.com I'll make some bullet points here too about inflation: - The government robs wealth from the whole population to fund programs. Printed money isn't real money, you can't just print money out of thin air, they dilute the money supply making every one poorer except those that get the money first (banks and big stock holders in the USA, France and the UK in Germany) - It snowballs and ends up making the whole country poorer - Politicians and even emperors have been doing it so many times over the last thousands of years. IT. HAS. NEVER. WORKED. - The people hurt first are savers, people with fixed income (anyone that works), taxpayers (every one) since you will move to a high tax bracket while not really making more - People that don't work and get free stuff are happy at first (remember, koko the gorilla...), and then once the government can't support them no more they starve to death (well done), a "condescending tone" is the least of their concerns - The wealthy, the entrepreneurs are not going to bother building anything, they'd rather speculate, look for valuable assets that won't depreciate (as much). Can be real estate (hey even the Venezuela government did that, in particular with exiles homes), foreign stocks, gold (hey even the Venezuela government did that), cryptocurrencies like bitcoin in zimbabwe (hey even the Venezuela government did that) - If no one makes stuff then there is no stuff. You cannot legislate it into existence. This is painfully obvious what isn't is the process in which it destroys a country, what I attempted to list here. Crazy money printing to offer "free stuff" always ends badly. Every single time. Here is a nice little essay on Bernie Sanders senator page, it's from 2011: www.sanders.senate.gov Ahem, ahem, *clears throat*, I quote: "These days, the American dream is more apt to be realized in South America, in places such as Ecuador, Venezuela and Argentina, where incomes are actually more equal today than they are in the land of Horatio Alger. Who's the banana republic now?" As you know, Bernie is pro "free stuff", and never had a real job. Therefore it is no surprise that he still has not delete that page, gee, that's alot of hard work! 😉 Bernie Sanders, praising Venezuela & Argentina in 2011. Nice. And then during his campaign for 2020 he was saying "I'm not thinking of Venezuela and Argentina those are bad places". Maybe Bernie has lost his memory like sleepy Joe? He praised the Soviet Union, then he pretended he never did, then he praised Venezuela and Argentina, then he pretended he never did, then he praised Europe ... Eu... OH MY GOD WE ARE NEXT WE ARE DONE FOR! Oh this Bernie. I will make an idea with his finest quotes, I promise. Here is a fine picture of Chavez holding hands with Michael Moore the american feminist andit white man pro free stuff filmmaker. Maduro is walking next to them. Moore can't pretend he wasn't there😉 adribosch.wordpress.com Short sell any country that promises free stuff. Part 3 could be debt spending (stealing money from future generations) and part 4 government spending in general, regroups all 3 parts.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by MrRenev
7
JPY/CAD/USD Super move iminent.Within this 4 hour block I expect a super move of a CAD and JPY combined dump. This will cause XXXCAD and XXXJPY to rocket into orbit. Because of XXXCAD and XXXJPY rockets, XXXUSD will rocket too. It is caused by UJ seasonality. It's the final opening bell. That's why it has taken so long to prepare and that's why yesterday was that flat. Mysteriously I have no data of JPY performance since December 12, 5.55am UTC. That is exact 12 hour block until now. Then 4 hours to the daybreak, The movie debut of "Friday the 13th 2019" was 10 years ago, It was a Friday in February back then. en.wikipedia.org(2009_film) Scary :)
TVC:NI225Short
by Deep-Peat-Shark
The EURUSD HAS to break soon right?The ones controlling the dollar want to fight back (Trump & cie have announced a while ago). Might happen in 3 weeks once summer is over. Right now the euro is so devaluated and everything... I think downside is limited, but upside can be so strong. It could still go down but seriously... the system would get so broken.... What more can they do? Literally (physically) helicopter money down to people? The weak downtrend can continue a while, it can even drop down, but I do not think is super likely. The volatility is at some of the lowest levels: Here are a few examples of similar patterns: Things are not that clear and every one wants to manipulate their currency down. So I wouldn't go full euro either, who knows what could happen. Of course there is gold... But no guarentee here either reeeeeeee. But afaik no broker offers the option to have a gold account, so for those that trade you MUST have cash. Also, property. Going in bonds (all negative yields etc) super expensive stonks or ponzi currencies makes as much sense as most pro Bitcoin arguments. It is too risky to all in anything now hehehe. Only option I see is to diversify. So for the cash part... I think now I want to hold my cash in a mix of usd and euro (was full dollar till now). GBP is scary. Yen is a ponzi. I don't really know for other currencies + can't be bothered for now. I got cash with brokers, will have half in $ half in €. Central banks forcing people to invest, really FORCING them... Boomers helping out boomers... Ok so clearly we can say they are mentally retarded without the shadow of a doubt, but more than this... Are they actually trying to create the biggest bubble of all times with 90% of the population rekt? + Inflation + wages not going up. They WANT WW3 right? I wonder what small country is running the show....
by MrRenev
2
After his success manipulating the US stock market...Donald Trump wants to devaluate the US dollar. From the South China Morning Post: "The euro – which has dropped nearly 10 per cent against the dollar since early 2018 – is 22 per cent undervalued versus the greenback, according to a purchasing power parity measure of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. The dollar itself is considered too strong: in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s latest fund manager survey, a record 60 per cent of respondents saw the greenback as overvalued." Got my trading accounts in USD (and in XBT on my little Bitmex account :p). May be time to turn it to euro... The euro downtrend got weaker and weaker and it is looking like a possible reversal and it is undervalued anyway. I think it should go up in the long term. But I only think it would go up something like 10%, over a several months period. Not a huge deal. I see at least a buy trade if we go visit that area. I do not think it is necessary to look for a bottoming chart pattern. Stop loss can be set at 1.11 or a little below. Entry 1.11250 maybe. Are we going to get Trump tweets to try to move the USD valuation like with the stock market?
Long
by MrRenev
2
Dollar devaluation: A clear relief valve for US economic policy As the FED continues to push for policy normalisation, it is unable to do so and maintain its mandate for keeping stock propped up (more formally known as the 'wealth effect' or explicitly acted upon in the eyes of 'ensuring market stability'). A pricy dollar does not economically benefit the US, for example: with much exposure to energy junk debt through its banks, the devaluation of the Dollar helps support the revaluation of Oil despite the continued glut. This helps stabilise various risks in the economy which poise risk to policy normalisation.
TVC:DXYShort
by MarcusWilliamson
Bullish BTCUSD up through 465 to 500I called the 1/7 breakout up to 465, exactly! Unfortunately, it came much quicker than expected and I didn't get a chance to take profits. So I'm still 100% long. We've seen some colidation back down to the 440 level. Overnight and into today, we saw a sustained breach of the bearish trendline from the 465 high. This looks bullish to me and with my expectation for further Yuan devaluation, I anticipate a move back up to 453 and a re-test of 465, before moving higher to challenge the summer highs at 500.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by simonsays452
Yuan fuelling the bitcoin resurgence?The cryptocurrencies have been back in the news recently, in light of Bitcoins astronomic resurgence. Although it would be naive to believe that any one thing can be the driver behind the 150% increase over the past few months, significant parallels however can be drawn with what has been going on in China. Now, I don't want to bore you, but for those who don't know; Chinese nationals can 'only' transfer out of the country the equivalent of $50,00 per year. With China's economy in somewhat of a downward spiral the government are increasingly keen to keep as much money as possible within its economy rather than it being held, invested or spent outside of China. There have been a number of high profile attempts to try and circumvent the restriction, which have had varying degrees of success. The abuse of China UnionPay is the one currently under the Ministry of Public Security’s microscope. Via the use of Union cards in Macau; the former Portuguese enclave has become a hotbed for the use of unregulated POS (Point Of Sale) systems. Chinese nationals can use these vendors to ‘purchase an item’ but in reality receive cash as a result of the transaction. My point is that with these capital controls gaining momentum, a parallel can be drawn with the increase in the price of Bitcoin. As a side note - expect Macau based casino revenues to be detrimentally affected, compounded by other measure being taken by Beijing to restrict the decadence of high profile officials on the island. ( OTC:WYNMY & Galaxy are two Macau based casino behemoths if you’re interested in that side of things). I am ultimately quite bearish in the short-term with the cryptocurrency having already failed to break the November 2014 highs with my target being the 0.5 fib level (circa $360) with 0.618 fib level ($310) presenting a favourable buy opportunity. It's pointless me regurgitating articles so I have put a link to it below (South China Morning Post). I have also put links to a few more articles that I found both useful and interesting when putting this analysis together. Sources: Bloomberg: www.bloomberg.com Deutsche Welle: www.dw.com South China Morning Post: www.scmp.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DarrenWells
2