40 Bar Cycle Chart - Dow Jones DIA DJIA - Updated 121722This last week, markets initially rallied on the release of the "cooler" than expected November CPI (Consumer Price Index) — only to be smacked back to reality on the comments via Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell during the December Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) meeting this last Wednesday as "higher for longer" is the communicated pathway forward for the FED and financial markets.
Whether this is all talk to put some intentional downward pressure on markets, as financial conditions have eased as of late — or this is the actual pathway forward and the bond markets are mis-pricing the projected Terminal FFR (Fed Funds Rate, now >5% into 23'), some indicators such as our (40-Bar Cycle Chart) 📉 are highlighting what is likely another leg down in financial assets as QT ramps up and higher interest rates take their toll on real economic activity. Keep in mind that behind the scenes, the FED in coordination with the U.S. Treasury are working their magic 🧙🏼♂️🔮 in terms of FED Net Liquidity to keep things "(dis)orderly".
Here is the updated 40-Bar Cycle Chart for DIA DJIA, which seems to be sitting on some major support. Given the structure of the markets after losing the $330 DIA / $33,000 DJIA, along with J. Powell and other FED speaker comments post-FOMC on Friday, is the hopes for a year-end 🎅 🎄 rally wishful thinking?
DIA Daily Chart Template
www.tradingview.com
Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets?
Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED).
Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED).
Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
DIA
From "Hovercraft" to IHS pattern? WAY EARLY but interesting 2cDo you see it? $DJI
Is it easier to see on weekly?
The "Hovercraft" patter COULD be a precursor to an Inverted Head & Shoulder!
See it now?
IT'S WAAAY early & it doesn't mean it'll happen
$ETH had one recently & went kaput
Can $DJI #BEAR be ending? Time will tell
IMO chances are NOT for
BUT
As stated MANY TIMES #markets are NOT logical
What about $NDX $SPX & $RUT?
Short answers
no, bleh & actually looks like head & shoulder recently lol
$DJI forms Outside Week (DAY)Had no plan for trades 2day barring huge opportunity, which not seeing
BUT like $META action in "bear" market
Did say keep this in mind
BUT THIS IS NOT THREAD FOR @facebook
It's for $DJI and its cronies #DJIA $DIA $UDOW $SDOW
WE HAVE HUGE MOVE in place with more to follow
Being this is WEEKLY the paint = more important
31.7k is 50% retracement but IMO we're likely retesting 30k next year, just don't see bloodbath ending year
Another post which may or may not post here later
AFAIK no such thing as HOVER pattern🤣
Me having FUN
BUT
could be precursor to one! IHS patter is hint
short call spreads working in dow index DIA on mean reversionIts not a good sign when the dow is getting bid up more than the growth sectors. Could be implying investors and institutions DIA who have to buy stocks are preferring blue chip dividend payers because they dont see growth in the near term. QQQ AAPL
40 Bar Cycle Chart - Dow Jones DIA DJIA - Updated 121022Given that we are headed into the release of the November Consumer Price Index this upcoming (Tuesday, December 13th) and also the December Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday, December 14th) , are markets set up for another short opportunity into the end of January (Q1)?
DIA DJIA Daily Chart Template
www.tradingview.com
Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets?
Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED).
Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED).
Let me know your prediction in the comments below!
selling call option spreads until the stock market gets cheaperstock market is pricing in close to 20 PE currently which is roughly a 5% earnings yield, while bonds are paying close to that. next years expectations are still that we see a rise of as much as 10% higher earnings. If we instead slow down earnings growth, the market may be too expensive. SPX SPY IWF QQQ DIA
DIAUSDTMy current view on DIAUSDT.
DIA (Decentralised Information Asset) is the governance token of an open-source oracle platform that enables market actors to source, supply and share trustable data. DIA aims to be an ecosystem for open financial data in a financial smart contract ecosystem, to bring together data analysts, data providers and data users. In general, DIA provides a reliable and verifiable bridge between off-chain data from various sources and on-chain smart contracts that can be used to build a variety of financial DApps.
DIA Dow Jones Outlook For 2023Throwing a textbook at the charts it becomes clear at what is happening.
This is DIA Dow Jones ETF:
- A Clear double bottom formed that pushed DIA to recent resistance - yellow line
- Another rising wedge is forming which we will see correction, small correction.
- After small correction we will retest Resistance line again.
- AFTER the above we will form a DOUBLE TOP which we can retest resistance.
ALSO note the fibonacci levels at 0.618 we will have to close the gap at the green arrow.
Dow Jones Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 Dow Jones Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.82%, down from 3.06% last week according to VXD data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 7th percentile, while according to VXD, we are on 8th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 2.6% movement
Bearish: 1.9% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 19.5% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 35473
BOT: 33370
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
79% probability we are going to touch previous high of 34750
21% probability we are going to touch previous low of 33370
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 77% BULLISH trend
Daily timeframe indicates 80% BULLISH trend
4H timeframe indicates 53.3% BULLISH trend
$DJI @ Support - Showing RSI weakness - Likely trade sidewaysDaily
Maybe call this the HOVERCRAFT Pattern
$DJI @ Red EMA support, bouncing
4Hr
Bullflag pattern ok, within range
Hr
BEARFLAG trade done
ALERT
RSI beginning showing neg divergence
(Couldn't post the flags as reached limit day before)
#stocks #DJI #DJIA
DJI Dow Jones Short???Hello there!
Great news came out yesterday regarding the interest rates by May 2023. Regardless, a great pump in market yesterday. But with such actions opportunities arise that can be seen while charting the trend.
Here we have Dow Jones Industrial DJI shown:
- A previous falling wedge worked it self into a nice pump.
- Heading into correction territory.
- How do you find where the correction will retest and bounce?
-- Take a look at the previous Unclosed gad in green box at the 1HR chart. Gaps eventually will have to be closed.
-- Also take a look at the FIB where the 0.618 lands, right at the GAP.
What are your thoughts?
Thank you for taking a look. Cheers.
$DJI expected small selloff - Likely trade sideways till EOYOkie-Dokie
FOR END OF DAY
4HR:
👀on RSI breaking 50
#DJIA trading above or sub GREEN Mov Avg
Daily:
$DJI trading above or sub light blue line
A selloff to GAP will suffice
Setting up for another bump
Likely trade sideways rest of year
#stocks $DIA $NDX $QQQ $SPX $SPY $VIX
Short DIA @ prior months resistance Once an area or “zone” of prior resistance has been identified, those price levels can serve as potential entry or exit points because, as the price reaches a point of previous support or resistance, it will do one of two things: bounce back away from the support or resistance level, or violate the price level and continue its trend until it hits the next support or resistance level.
As most other major market indices are at 200-day SMA support we are taking a short position in DIA at the prior months' resistance zone.
$VIX filled gap, NOW WHAT?!Buy on rumor
Sell on news
REMEMBER THAT!
Feds gave lil gift - No one wants to rattle this time of year
OK, $VIX did what we expected
GAP FILLED
Now WHAT?
We wait to be sure that "top" is in, again
BUT until we get DIRECTION, can nibble here & there
@ Symmetrical Triangle support
🚨 We break Long Term = NEW BULL
#VIX $SPX $SPY #stocks
QQQ Sustained Uptrend representing a retracement down to the Fib 0.382 level from the top one week ago
on the 30 minute time frame. Double bottom at the fib level. Additional confluence
from the anchored VWAP -3 stand deviations as well as now a gain today into the
price of the POC line of the local volume profile confluence into the VWAP.
Apparently, there are now buyers who will need to pause for the holiday.
This appears to be a rally of sorts for this index fund and a decent long setup.
The call options with Friday's expiration did quite well.
SPY Cycle Patterns For Thanksgiving Week - Sideways Melt-UpHere you go. This week I expect the markets to melt upward with a couple of bottom/momentum bottom patterns as well as holiday trading liquidity.
This week may see some volatile price swings, but overall I believe the US markets will continue to melt upward.
As we near the end of the year, I expect some traders to try to pull out of positions (anchoring in tax losses) and repositioning early in 2023.
Enjoy your holidays with family/friends.
Follow my research if you are looking for more detailed analysis of the US/Global markets.
SPX / ES - Get Ready for a Head Fake, and an OpportunityIn my recent calls, I have made predictions for Apple to set new all time highs, Tesla to print at least $250 again, and Nasdaq to 14,000.
However, whenever price action fails to follow suit with expectations, one must revise, revise, and revise again the situation at hand.
With this week's price action topping on Tuesday after what should have been a significant bull catalyst in the lower CPI print, causing SPX and Nasdaq to go as wild as the Dow has, it can only be ascertained that the makers not only do not want to go higher, but are likely to head lower, and they'll be in a hurry.
I have been simultaneously conflicted by the fact that I do expect SPX and Nasdaq to run to their COVID lows with the fact that there isn't any news primed until December and timing is awkward with the next FOMC being a month away and US Thanksgiving being late next week.
There's a significant fractal from June daily bars that's very similar to where we're at now, where we ultimately made the Low of the Year, which held until September, and then October.
The problem is that everyone is expecting a dump, because although there really isn't any fear and nobody is actually positioned bearishly, the sentiment is still bearish.
I said on Twitter the other day after hearing that Michael J. Burry from Big Short 2008 GFC fame said "You have no idea how short I am," that these types of guys are allowed to tell you what is going to happen, but not when it is going to happen or where it is going to happen.
They're allowed to speak the truth insofar as it makes retail offside.
If they were to really reveal the truth that they know, they would disrupt the markets and their access to credit facilities and swap lines would be revoked.
What I mean by the above is that for retail, you're going to be baited into going hard on puts and shorts, but this isn't yet the moment of impact everyone who believes interest rates and recessions mean SPX 2,000 straight line no bounce have been waiting for.
Meanwhile, although the VIX isn't showing much in the way of signs of life, the put to call ratio is as high as it's been since 2008 quietly starting around Wednesday. The US Dollar Index has also started to show poppyness after running a key low.
Signals are great, but price action has to confirm, and as of now, it indicates that the indexes and stocks do not want to trade higher.
Thus, what I believe and am expecting to happen is that indeed we do dump, and violently, and fast. It is imminent. Perhaps as early as Sunday futures open.
It will be scary. However, what I think is that the dump will really be a bear trap. It won't go as low and it won't stay as dipped as everyone is expecting. When it starts to bounce, it will bounce a lot, and hard, and catch people off guard.
This time, there won't be a retrace.
Thus, what I am anticipating is for the SPX to print at least a low 3,600s tape. More likely, I believe SPX will actually trade back toward 3,500, but not take the low out.
What I want to tell everyone is this: You need to stop listening to the Stocktwits and the Twitter and the Discord and the WhatsApp feeds. You need to unfollow these guys that are filling your head with notions about interest rates and yield curves.
The more you fill yourself with those concepts, the more you will be manipulated into trapping yourself offside and the more you will be unable to take advantage of the real move.
The more you will blow your accounts.
The reason is, there is a logic behind why bear markets rally so hard. A bearish market rallies, simply put, because smart money doesn't sell low like you do. They sell high.
So they sell high, buy back low, sell high, buy back low, and the market has to be engineered around this, or they won't participate, because losing money means death.
The next bear market rally is going to be like 40%, and it's going to be rather impressive. Bears will be so angry, not realizing that the rally's climax is the "Big Short" they've long been awaiting.
Allow me to issue my own "Cassandra": Be warned, for when all the stocks and the indexes are high again, the day the Chinese Communist Party will be thrown out from this world is during Beijing time, not New York time. It will happen in the middle of the North American's night.
It will catch very literally almost everyone off guard. The limit down when the NYSE opens that day will be 15% on indexes and it won't be the bottom, it won't bounce.
That day is very close. Nobody expected the USSR to fall, and yet Gorbachev and friends threw it away anyways.
China's traditional 5,000 year dynasty culture is mankind's only hope for a future, and it will absolutely be not only preserved, but resurrected.