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Dow Jones Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022Dow Jones Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 We can see that this week our volatility is at 3.25% which declined from 3.45% last week. Currently according to ATR we are on 55th percentile, and according to VXD we are on 30th percentile, indicating in both cases, that we are currently is a stable market. Now, based on the implied volatility data that we have for this week, lets look into further details. We can see that currently there is 20.7% chance, that our candle is going to close at the end of the week either above/below the next channel TOP: 33385 BOT: 31160 This can also be translated as a 79.3% chance that the market is going to move within this established range. At the same, looking at the previous high/low values of the candle, and taking into account the entire history available of data, we can expect that there is going to be a 35% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of 33100 70% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of 31700
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by exlux
SPX500 / ES - The Faint of Heart Shall Have Fainting HeartsThe truth is that a difficult market will forge a trader (assuming you stay solvent, lol), whereas markets like the 2020-2021 bull run, which everyone so desires to reappear, do not. There is nothing to achieve by buying calls at literally any point, whether high or low, and watching it immediately turn green and run for days. Of course, a lot of people still lost money buying the top and paper handing the retraces or being on short expiry OTM calls, but a gambler is a gambler and a professional is a professional. This market is really hard to trade because it's not trending. It's still seek and destroy, and with a lot of psychological manipulation. All the sirens sing recession. All the wolves howl the Federal Reserve isn't going to pivot. Then YEN-USD is going to 250. WTI is going to $3,000. The UK is going to turn into Nigeria. Credit Suisse, which is already $3, is going to 50 cents and that's really scary "OMG it's Bear Sterns," wow this smells and looks like 2008, hah, hah! etc, etc. The reality is that October has already made a new 2022 low, and after September already made a new 2022 low, and frankly, we're not done making 2022 lows quite yet. But the truth is also that very few people understand how much of a problem it will be for what I dub the Eighth Communist International, more commonly known as the Democratic Socialists of America/Neoconservative-captained NATO bloc, to have the U.S. equities market crash before it is time to roll out the One World Central Bank Digital Currency, which will incorporate the notorious Chinese Communist Party's heinous social credit and "Zero-COVID" schema. The reason you have never seen the US equities markets actually crash is this reason. The 2008 and 2020 crashes were called stop raids and buying opportunities. The US equities markets have really never seen a bear market. You're still not in a bear market. You're just in the retracement of the greatest bull run the most ridiculously resilient stock market has ever seen. To business: I believe that we will see SPX and Nasdaq both run, or at least bounce, their pre-COVID highs, because Dow already did in both June and September and October: And where one goes the other two seem to like to play Monkey See, Monkey Do. However, 3,000 SPX is a bit too much of a fall at present, to be honest, so I have my eyes on SPX following what Dow did in June, which is to bounce off the pre-COVID high around 3,400. Note that next FOMC rate hike is Nov. 2, a Wednesday, and Timraios from WSJ, who is more or less JPow's unofficial spokesperson, has already said 75bps is inbound. Note that last FOMC everyone and their vegetable crisper knew that 75 bps was en route and we still ate a massive 200 point down day that set off a formidable and sustained dump. Note that the US midterm elections are Nov. 8 and that markets have often bounced afterwards and that it's likely that a Republican "Red Wave" will be regarded as bullish in terms of how the narrative is spun. After all, the Neocons are, like, business people, or something. But before we get there, this previous week's price action makes it clear, in my opinion, that before FOMC we are going to take the 3,820 mark and set a new October high. The question will be, then, can one go short, or do we get pushed even higher back to the 4030 range? What will be tricky is if it lingers in the 38xx-39xx range until FOMC and the the FOMC manipulation wick is all the way into 4,000. I really do not believe that we are going to see the SPX lose a thousand more points in 2022. I think we will see numbers like that occur when the problems between the Russian Federation and NATO exacerbate further. Russia is unable to back down from the war and NATO and DC cannot back down from the war. What lies ahead is a nuclear or biological conflict, for real. The war is only going to end when there is a winner between the two, or more accurately, when Heaven settles our problems for us with a real disaster. I also do not believe that the markets will crash at the Federal Reserve or the Biden Administration's hand. That will be terrible politically and will cause a lot of problems for the 8th Comintern on the global stage, so it will be arranged instead that the market crash necessary for the installation of global Communist social credit/CBDC is predicated on the back of a disaster that we will probably be told to blame Putin/Xi for, one that technocracy will be purported to save our very lives from. But in the meantime I also do not believe that we have seen the 2022 bottom. I think there's a BIG Q4 rally en route wherein Nasdaq goes totally apeshit while energy stocks, oil, natural gas, and defense contractors dump, because the real problems are in 2023. If you understand why the markets will do this, you will understand how if it unfolds as I have said, it is a Level 99 Red Alert. A real Level 99 Red Alert. If this society makes it through to 2024, that will really be something. The problems that lie ahead are that dire. What I want to see and expect to see before that Q4 rally occurs is a "bullish breaker" that takes out the October low. A real likely candidate for how that unfolds is for it to occur in early November, arguably on the back of dovish news from FOMC, with November as a month ending up forming an outside bar that leads into a December and January mega rally. If you do puts above 3,850 you should buy them with a lot of time on the contract and be prepared to have to average down. It may be worth hedging spot long with a liberal stop and a total willingness to abandon a green long early. Apple needs to make a new low before you can put on your rally hats, but the manipulation is coming both ways so that you'll be scared to be long when you need to be long and will be scared to be short when you need to be short. One last thing: Xi Jinping had his predecessor Hu Jintao removed from the Chinese Communist Party's summit today, Twitter says. No matter what Wall Street and Comintern 8 have planned, when the CCP falls, SPX is losing 1,000 points that day because it isn't on anyone's schedule. Be careful. Danger abounds and this can end at any time.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LordWrymouth
1
IWM / SMALL CAPS - STRONGEST MARKETI have a few observations on the market from last week and going on to this week. Something to note, I'm looking at the WEEKLY chart and have a longer time horizon. This is very intentional. I want to demonstrate that PRIOR to any major market move, BOTH bulls and bears will get shaken out. It is very naive to assume that you can have a strong directional bias and only see a straight line upwards in your P/L. Focusing on a smaller timeframe will result in some serious shake-outs on both ends of the market. Therefore, taking a step back and being able to see the larger picture can very much help tame emotions and see things for what they really are. Unfortunately, this is a rare character trait of the vast majority of market participants. As of the close of last week: Small caps are the strongest area of the stock market. While Nasdaq, S&P and the Dow Jones broke below their prior June lows, Small Caps HAVEN'T. See for yourself. Even though the overall trend is DOWN, this is a major signal to keep an eye on. Small caps tend to lead in the breakdowns and breakouts. Big directional moves inside a consolidation zone are not trading signals. The news on 10/13, Thursday, caused a big sell-off that was followed by a massive rally. Everyone on financial TV and social media was calling bottoms, reversals and quoting statistics. Nonetheless a one-day move doesn't mean anything without a major trend change - which takes TIME (and patience) to develop. The following day, Friday, gave back most of Thursday's gains. Here's the point - this type of price action is very normal in a sideways consolidations market. All big moves INSIDE A CONSOLIDATION ZONE can be easily faded in both directions. The June rally took SIX WEEKS to build up. Using that as an example (NOT PREDICTION), we can spend a few more weeks in this sideways chop and that would be totally okay. A fake-out move in either direction would not surprise me I've donated far too much money to the market by "going all in" on break-out trades. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a major breakout with an immediate reversal in the opposite direction. Moral of the story here is to wait for confirmation. A small position is a MUST on all breakouts, since the most powerful breakouts rarely come back to test the breakout level and we don't want to miss out on such opportunities. However, such breakouts are RARE and therefore capital preservation and risk management should be our HIGHEST & #1 PRIORITY. PERSONAL VIEW I still lean more bullish in the short-term (2-6 months), even with last week's wreck in the rest of the indices. There's too much negativity in the market among other factors. If my personal experience and observations after many years serves me well, such environment can sooner or later become ripe for a major squeeze. You don't want to fade that train. Mid/Long-term, I'm leaning bearish for another major leg down. We'll need a good rally first to entice all the bulls back into the market. When you start seeing news about "the bottom is in" or "new highs" statistics, BEWARE! BIBLE VERSE OF THE WEEK "Unless the LORD builds a house, the work of the builders is wasted. Unless the LORD protects a city, guarding it with sentries will do no good." Psalm 127:1
OANDA:US2000USDLong
by andremkv
1
Swing trade setup for Oct 20Swing trade setup for Oct 20-------I DO NOT GIVE SOLICITATION TO BUY OR SHORT. USE YOUR OWN DISCRETION I cover various stocks which can be profitable based on the stock charts and technical indicators. I try my best to explain as detailed as possible but your feedback is also appreciated Before you enter a trade , one must learn how to master the charts as Stock charts play a big role in deciding when to buy or when not to buy. Technical Trading help in predicting price movements and have a risk management. Stock trading is like any other business and must be taken seriously. Lot of people lose money because they don't educate themselves and end up placing trades blindly which results in big losses Stock charts is the major component day traders, swing traders, core traders use. Times and technology has changed and if you cannot adapt to the new methods , there is a high chance you will be left behind Millions of shares are traded now using desktop , laptop or gadgets and stock charts is what majority of traders look at. So , if you want to be a daytrader , swingtrader or coretrader learn how to read and interpret charts. There are lot of great books out there like Thomas Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of chart patterns and Steve Nison Japanese Candlesticks interpretation Having someone experienced can also cut the learning curve time for a new trader. Trading does take time and with discipline , hardwork , dedication and most importantly Passion for this needs to be there.
NASDAQ:METALong
by Composed_Trader
Dow Jones Industrial Average relative strength on the riseThe overall US equity market is still having a hard time stabilizing and catching its footing, however, if we examine the major US indices closer we do notice more and more relative strength coming out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This past week it never took out its September lows, the MACD momentum oscillator continues to climb aggressively, and on Friday we remained in the top 1/3 of Thursday's bullish engulfing bar. I started a position on Thursday and will keep a tight leash risk managing it going forward. More notes on the chart.
AMEX:DIALong
by EvanMedeiros
Is the bear market over for DIA? $2.388 on the horizon?DIA is one project I've followed for a while now. I did my fundamental analysis and at the same time followed the price closely, making some incredible gains trading intraday. For those who don't know what DIAdata (DIA) is, it's one of the web3 data oracle projects in the space. You can find more about this project at DIA official website. It's one of the top Chainlink LINK competitors. A recent analysis I made on DIA shows that the asset could be on its way to $2.388 in the coming weeks to months. It currently trades at $0.397 at the time of publishing this analysis. On the weekly chart, DIA has formed a descending wedge; in this case, signals a bearish reversal for the DIA asset. The target is always the top of the wedge which in this case - is $2.388. Remember, this analysis is based on the weekly time frame and may take weeks to months to finally hit the desired target. There's also a possibility that we make further lows or play sideways before we finally head towards the target. What's your take on this, I'll like to know your view.
Long
by iamjide91
2
S&P 500 test of 20 day SMACurrent price action suggests test of 20 day SMA after finding support at the bottom of the channel and touch off the 200 week SMA (see my other posts on 200 week SMA). The new bullish counter rally is not really confirmed until it can hold above the 20 day and break the blue trend line. A bullish sign would be to break out, retest the 20 and the trend and then continue back up to the top of the channel. Rinse and repeat until the fed stops raising interest rates.
AMEX:IVV
by Dr_Roboto
QQQ WHY THE 258/259 AREA IS SO IMPORTATNT .382 AND 50 % So what is next and why the support at 258/259 is why it is the point of focus in this CRASH . it is a pullback of 50 % from 2020 low to the peak . but more important it is a .382 within the super blowoff that ENDED AT 408.71 RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LONG TERM TARGET 406 TO 410 SEE DEC 2021 .So so many what to jump to the long side as we hit the target in time and targets in price the low was 254.9 just taking out the support but not in the sp almost to the tick it help 3490/3511 . I am and have been counting this as a super cycle top and will maintain that we had wave A from the peak at 408.71 down to the june low .And that we rallied in a perfect abc back up into the major spiral turn aug 16 to the 25 th for super cycle wave B we now have five waves down in wave 1 . I stated in in 8/16 this is the time we will see the market up here before we Crash in super cycle wave C low . wave 2 up has begun but if you think wave 2 up is going to be for a few weeks Think again . in every crash since 1902 the wave 2 of c is so quick you got TRAPPED with the rest the next decline is the CRASH and it will not bottom till 196 to 164 once it starts . So do you feel luck or Smart most of you I know will be feeling Lucky that why I make money and you seem to always which you did not make the mistake that you seem to not be able to stop . That is because I was a New york fireman before starting wavetimer . why does this matter it is the way my brain works I learned from two traders who were one a marine and one an ex navy seal . what do we all three have in common it is the being able to control our fear to stay alive and over come the natural fear of flight .I am no smarter than the next I just process it in a different way . best of trades Wavetimer !
NASDAQ:QQQ
by wavetimer
Wave 1 of C is ending 3511/3490 CRASH We have now entered the time frame for the panic low 10/4 to 20th focus on the 10 Th . We have also reached the target 3511/3490 It is my view that being short is not worth the trade . I can tell you I feel rather strong about the 3511/3490 area TO HOLD and lead to what will be the last rally within 2022 time frame . as I posted major turn 8/16/25 in spirals . I am doing the math tonight . I can also tell you my own p/c models on an rsi bases R looking for a rally to relief the model . MY VVIX is still not hit any PANIC levels I stand my we will see 47 in the reg VIX
SP:SPX
by wavetimer
2
Will DIA break the downtrend before the end of October?Long term descending resistance showcases a clear downtrend to DIA (as also can be soon on other oracles, namely ChainLink) which meets a 5 month ascending support whith plenty of retests as pointed with the yellow arrows. With the same sort of time frame there's also an horizontal support with decent relevance. The latest, in no more than 2 weeks DIA price action will have to break out of this triangle. If the price breaks down it's uncharted territory which is though to quantify. When it comes to breaking up there are some interesting levels worth exploring. - the $0.425 level which would mark the most recent local top - the $0.50 level which goes back to the previous local top, an important psychological level and a previous support and resistance with considered importance - the $0.75 level amd the $0.867 level are options but not with as much relevance as the following levels - the $1 level besided being a great psychological level, have also been an important support in the past, which also coincided wth the top of the triangle making it an interesting target
Long
by gixolas
3
$MULN Critical level to hold Last time I warned you about the coming crash when $MULN was above $0.77 and as you can see it plunged all the way from $0.77 to 0.$52 today What next? I don't think the support level at 0.52 is going to break fast and i expect a bounce , if you FOMO trader you can just buy at support level and set a SL below this support for swing trade (Risk of 2% high R) But i think it's better to wait for a confirmation in daily TF. Anyway, if it breaks the ~0.52 support and closes far below, that could be a bad signal, and I'll update my chart accordingly .. Good luck everyone 👌🏼🍀
NASDAQ:MULNLong
by TradingZzone
9
SPX500 / ES - An Ill-timed Bear is a Dead BearThis past week's trading was a good refresher course on what bear markets actually trade like. As opposed to dips during bull runs that suck to short and aren't so scary to go long on because price action continually rips back and makes highs, bear markets will take out a consecutive series of downside lows while terminating virtually each and every rally. At some point during a good bear market, however, you get that kind of manipulation that comes fast and strong to the upside, bringing in buyers and stopping out and liquidating late bears and greedy bears. An easy example of this was formed in a miniature on the 1 minute charts of FedEx FDX on Thursday: It's a risk that all bear market short sellers and put buyers should keep in mind. When it comes to Nasdaq and SPX, it's important to keep an eye on the clock. We just had an entirely bearish week. And a heavily bearish week prior. With a peculiar form of meltdown on FOMC day after the Fed did what everyone and their dog knew for at least a month they would do: hike 75 bps. And in response, everything quickly took a run at the June low, and yet for SPX and Nasdaq and the SPY and QQQ ETFs they did not take the June low and even rallied off the June low. It's like support was found and a double bottom has been made. But note that Dow did take the June low and also spent some time purging under the pre-COVID highs as well: SPX and Nasdaq, like last week, finished the week with a fairly strong bounce. The question now, is, do they turn around and take the June lows before the end of the month? I'd estimate the chances at 65-35 No-Yes, personally. Consider that this is the final week of trading, a full five days, to form the monthly candle. Consider also that Friday Sept. 30 is also quarterly options expiry. Consider also that timing is more important than price. A situation we could easily be set up for is a run back towards 4,000 to close month end, forming a monthly pinbar. Don't think it can happen? It happened in May after making new lows: On the weekly, it's more painful: Broken down into the daily, you see that you had a 400 point bounce over the course of 6 trading days: And on the 4H, there wasn't a whole lot of chance to escape for bears: And then it turned around and made the June lows, which still stand as the low of the year, if you aren't the Dow. In my opinion, the truth is that we are going to see SPX 3,400 and NASDAQ 9,xxx in October, and probably a rather ugly month, but rather than a market wipeout, things will likely turn around again after the November Midterm elections are over. But before we get to that bloody month, you have a week of trading left to paint some hard-to-trade candles, and at least October 3 and 4 where it can still be bullish as the high of the month gets painted before we descend into the near-COVID high abyss under 3,600. So, what to do? If you decide to go long, it's a scalp, not a hold into a reversal. If you want to keep going short, you need to keep your risk down, or prepare to hold a major move in the opposite direction. Unless you're patient/liquid enough to keep shorting on the way up. Of course, just like last week's call, it may just turn around and die, die, die. SPX500 / ES - It's Still a Bull. Now, Good Luck Riding It In trading, it's not so hard to predict the future, but it is hard to figure it out down to the day and the hour, so you have to have some expectations about what can unfold in both directions and a plan for what to do when things unfold contrary to your expectations. Don't get drug into the chaos on social media about recession this and inflation that and Europe this and terminal Fed fund rates that. The U.S. equities market absolutely won't collapse until one, or all, of four conditions are achieved: 1. Everything breaks 2. War 3. Natural disaster 4. Chinese Communist Party falls The U.S. equities market remaining strong is critical for the Western Communist Party to maintain social stability until technocracy can be installed in the form of Central Bank Digital Currencies and Social Credit under the pretext of a conflict-backed energy and economic crisis. They need to create a crisis they can save you from, but the window of opportunity to do that is still a ways away. In the meantime, they need to maintain their stability until the opportunity is ripe. Your western governments have spent years training Marxist-Leninism in Shanghai and Beijing with the Chinese Communist Party. They love the evil Party's ways, because they and the Party have a similar nature. Don't think your governments want to help you and save you. They believe in Marxism, and Marxism believes in redistribution of wealth, which is a polite way of saying that they'll ruin your life and take your stuff. If you want a bright future, get rid of this communist and socialist stuff from your minds and hearts and start walking an upright path. It's the only hope.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LordWrymouth
10