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DIA

S&P 500 test of 20 day SMACurrent price action suggests test of 20 day SMA after finding support at the bottom of the channel and touch off the 200 week SMA (see my other posts on 200 week SMA). The new bullish counter rally is not really confirmed until it can hold above the 20 day and break the blue trend line. A bullish sign would be to break out, retest the 20 and the trend and then continue back up to the top of the channel. Rinse and repeat until the fed stops raising interest rates.
AMEX:IVV
by Dr_Roboto
QQQ WHY THE 258/259 AREA IS SO IMPORTATNT .382 AND 50 % So what is next and why the support at 258/259 is why it is the point of focus in this CRASH . it is a pullback of 50 % from 2020 low to the peak . but more important it is a .382 within the super blowoff that ENDED AT 408.71 RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LONG TERM TARGET 406 TO 410 SEE DEC 2021 .So so many what to jump to the long side as we hit the target in time and targets in price the low was 254.9 just taking out the support but not in the sp almost to the tick it help 3490/3511 . I am and have been counting this as a super cycle top and will maintain that we had wave A from the peak at 408.71 down to the june low .And that we rallied in a perfect abc back up into the major spiral turn aug 16 to the 25 th for super cycle wave B we now have five waves down in wave 1 . I stated in in 8/16 this is the time we will see the market up here before we Crash in super cycle wave C low . wave 2 up has begun but if you think wave 2 up is going to be for a few weeks Think again . in every crash since 1902 the wave 2 of c is so quick you got TRAPPED with the rest the next decline is the CRASH and it will not bottom till 196 to 164 once it starts . So do you feel luck or Smart most of you I know will be feeling Lucky that why I make money and you seem to always which you did not make the mistake that you seem to not be able to stop . That is because I was a New york fireman before starting wavetimer . why does this matter it is the way my brain works I learned from two traders who were one a marine and one an ex navy seal . what do we all three have in common it is the being able to control our fear to stay alive and over come the natural fear of flight .I am no smarter than the next I just process it in a different way . best of trades Wavetimer !
NASDAQ:QQQ
by wavetimer
Wave 1 of C is ending 3511/3490 CRASH We have now entered the time frame for the panic low 10/4 to 20th focus on the 10 Th . We have also reached the target 3511/3490 It is my view that being short is not worth the trade . I can tell you I feel rather strong about the 3511/3490 area TO HOLD and lead to what will be the last rally within 2022 time frame . as I posted major turn 8/16/25 in spirals . I am doing the math tonight . I can also tell you my own p/c models on an rsi bases R looking for a rally to relief the model . MY VVIX is still not hit any PANIC levels I stand my we will see 47 in the reg VIX
SP:SPX
by wavetimer
2
Will DIA break the downtrend before the end of October?Long term descending resistance showcases a clear downtrend to DIA (as also can be soon on other oracles, namely ChainLink) which meets a 5 month ascending support whith plenty of retests as pointed with the yellow arrows. With the same sort of time frame there's also an horizontal support with decent relevance. The latest, in no more than 2 weeks DIA price action will have to break out of this triangle. If the price breaks down it's uncharted territory which is though to quantify. When it comes to breaking up there are some interesting levels worth exploring. - the $0.425 level which would mark the most recent local top - the $0.50 level which goes back to the previous local top, an important psychological level and a previous support and resistance with considered importance - the $0.75 level amd the $0.867 level are options but not with as much relevance as the following levels - the $1 level besided being a great psychological level, have also been an important support in the past, which also coincided wth the top of the triangle making it an interesting target
Long
by gixolas
3
$MULN Critical level to hold Last time I warned you about the coming crash when $MULN was above $0.77 and as you can see it plunged all the way from $0.77 to 0.$52 today What next? I don't think the support level at 0.52 is going to break fast and i expect a bounce , if you FOMO trader you can just buy at support level and set a SL below this support for swing trade (Risk of 2% high R) But i think it's better to wait for a confirmation in daily TF. Anyway, if it breaks the ~0.52 support and closes far below, that could be a bad signal, and I'll update my chart accordingly .. Good luck everyone 👌🏼🍀
NASDAQ:MULNLong
by TradingZzone
9
SPX500 / ES - An Ill-timed Bear is a Dead BearThis past week's trading was a good refresher course on what bear markets actually trade like. As opposed to dips during bull runs that suck to short and aren't so scary to go long on because price action continually rips back and makes highs, bear markets will take out a consecutive series of downside lows while terminating virtually each and every rally. At some point during a good bear market, however, you get that kind of manipulation that comes fast and strong to the upside, bringing in buyers and stopping out and liquidating late bears and greedy bears. An easy example of this was formed in a miniature on the 1 minute charts of FedEx FDX on Thursday: It's a risk that all bear market short sellers and put buyers should keep in mind. When it comes to Nasdaq and SPX, it's important to keep an eye on the clock. We just had an entirely bearish week. And a heavily bearish week prior. With a peculiar form of meltdown on FOMC day after the Fed did what everyone and their dog knew for at least a month they would do: hike 75 bps. And in response, everything quickly took a run at the June low, and yet for SPX and Nasdaq and the SPY and QQQ ETFs they did not take the June low and even rallied off the June low. It's like support was found and a double bottom has been made. But note that Dow did take the June low and also spent some time purging under the pre-COVID highs as well: SPX and Nasdaq, like last week, finished the week with a fairly strong bounce. The question now, is, do they turn around and take the June lows before the end of the month? I'd estimate the chances at 65-35 No-Yes, personally. Consider that this is the final week of trading, a full five days, to form the monthly candle. Consider also that Friday Sept. 30 is also quarterly options expiry. Consider also that timing is more important than price. A situation we could easily be set up for is a run back towards 4,000 to close month end, forming a monthly pinbar. Don't think it can happen? It happened in May after making new lows: On the weekly, it's more painful: Broken down into the daily, you see that you had a 400 point bounce over the course of 6 trading days: And on the 4H, there wasn't a whole lot of chance to escape for bears: And then it turned around and made the June lows, which still stand as the low of the year, if you aren't the Dow. In my opinion, the truth is that we are going to see SPX 3,400 and NASDAQ 9,xxx in October, and probably a rather ugly month, but rather than a market wipeout, things will likely turn around again after the November Midterm elections are over. But before we get to that bloody month, you have a week of trading left to paint some hard-to-trade candles, and at least October 3 and 4 where it can still be bullish as the high of the month gets painted before we descend into the near-COVID high abyss under 3,600. So, what to do? If you decide to go long, it's a scalp, not a hold into a reversal. If you want to keep going short, you need to keep your risk down, or prepare to hold a major move in the opposite direction. Unless you're patient/liquid enough to keep shorting on the way up. Of course, just like last week's call, it may just turn around and die, die, die. SPX500 / ES - It's Still a Bull. Now, Good Luck Riding It In trading, it's not so hard to predict the future, but it is hard to figure it out down to the day and the hour, so you have to have some expectations about what can unfold in both directions and a plan for what to do when things unfold contrary to your expectations. Don't get drug into the chaos on social media about recession this and inflation that and Europe this and terminal Fed fund rates that. The U.S. equities market absolutely won't collapse until one, or all, of four conditions are achieved: 1. Everything breaks 2. War 3. Natural disaster 4. Chinese Communist Party falls The U.S. equities market remaining strong is critical for the Western Communist Party to maintain social stability until technocracy can be installed in the form of Central Bank Digital Currencies and Social Credit under the pretext of a conflict-backed energy and economic crisis. They need to create a crisis they can save you from, but the window of opportunity to do that is still a ways away. In the meantime, they need to maintain their stability until the opportunity is ripe. Your western governments have spent years training Marxist-Leninism in Shanghai and Beijing with the Chinese Communist Party. They love the evil Party's ways, because they and the Party have a similar nature. Don't think your governments want to help you and save you. They believe in Marxism, and Marxism believes in redistribution of wealth, which is a polite way of saying that they'll ruin your life and take your stuff. If you want a bright future, get rid of this communist and socialist stuff from your minds and hearts and start walking an upright path. It's the only hope.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LordWrymouth
10
DOW JONES - Signal That We Haven't Seen Since the Crash of 2008Dow Jones Index has showed a monthly signal not seen since 2008. The price action that has currently developed is very similar to the beginning of the 2008 crash. In fact, the next rally (if we get one) can be the final "make or break". See the chart comparison between 2008 and 2022. I'm not a perma-bear nor do I ever like predicting crashes or waiting around for one. However, the technical setup with the current inflation and aggressive FED rate policy can be just what it takes to crush this market. TECHNICALS: The monthly histogram has fired negative for the first time since July of 2008 and is also in a volatility squeeze (John Carter...). The squeeze tends to fire in the direction of the primary trend. Yet unless the macro picture changes (i.e. FED reverses course, etc), it appears the squeeze is already beginning to fire SHORT. I'm anticipating another 40% lower from where we are now, that is using the same projection from the crash of 2008. Now, a lot can change and the macro picture is very different from that of 2008. A lot of people will buy the next leg up in this BEAR TREND hoping to have nailed the bottom. It will be those buyers who will end up capitulating and puking the market when it catches them off guard. Word of advice - be very cautious on going "all in" on this next counter rally. The market is in a massive squeeze. (similar theme will apply to other indices) OANDA:US30USD SP:SPX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:DIA Stay safe all and God bless.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by andremkv
SPX, Regression Channel shows bounce in the next two daysSPX daily chart with long term Regression channel, 3405 days, with +3/-3 stdev bands. The Comfort Zone is the reddish area located between +2 and 2 stdev, where at least 95% of price occurrences should occur. This chart shows that the uptrend that started on June 16 failed to break above the +1 stdev line. The mean served as support and allowed a small bounce that failed at +0.5 stdev, retraces and the mean fails to serve as support. Last Friday it closed at the -1 stdev line. This fact coupled with the extreme reading of some indicators point to an immediate rebound of the SPX. There is too much technical damage on the chart to augur a long life for any rally that starts now. However, we expect the SPX to move higher in the coming days, a trading opportunity.
SP:SPXLong
by Point-Blank-Trading
SPX, find support in a Regression ChannelSPX daily chart with long term Regression channel, 3405 days, with +3/-3 stdev bands. The Comfort Zone is the reddish area located between +2 and 2 stdev, where at least 95% of price occurrences should occur. This chart shows that the uptrend that started on June 16 failed to break above the +1 stdev line. The mean served as support and allowed a small bounce that failed at +0.5 stdev, retraces and the mean and this time the mean fails to serve as support. Last Friday it closed at the -1 stdev line. This fact coupled with the extreme reading of some indicators point to an immediate rebound of the SPX. There is too much technical damage on the chart to augur a long life for any rally that starts now. However, we expect the SPX to move higher in the coming days, a trading opportunity.
SP:SPXLong
by Point-Blank-Trading
NFLX, is now the strongest FAANG stock. It should bounce again.NFLX has proven in recent weeks to be the strongest stock in the FAANG family of stocks. It has held above a long-term trendline linking the 2013 and 2016 lows. Comparing the ratios of the SPX and each of the FAANG stocks, NFLX is the only one that has held above the June 2 high. This is a short term trade to take advantage of a bounce and then decide according to price action. We are expecting a bounce in the SPX tomorrow Monday or Tuesday after extreme readings on several indicators. We do not expect a very long lasting rally and when the downtrend resumes, NFLX will probably follow suit as well.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by Point-Blank-Trading
1
SPX500 / ES - It's Still a Bull. Now, Good Luck Riding ItBefore we begin, to substantiate what I'm about to say, I would suggest everyone blow 8 minutes watching this video . Professional bull riders attempted to ride Asteroid 76 times. Asteroid bucked off and stomped professional bull riders 71 times. You should know professional bull riders aren't some Cletus-style hicks. These are professional athletes in very, very good shape, who grew up riding steers as children, often graduated to horses, and then took on the extremely fine and extremely challenging Cosmic manifestation that is encompassed in the word "ox," of which a bull can be seen as a derivative of. They're like that and they still got wrecked. Wall Street, is, likewise, like an Ox, for they and the Federal Reserve are the guardians of the world's financial heart, whether you like it or not. No matter how you hear about recession and inflation and rate hikes this and that on TradingView and Twitter and Discord and the news, the reality is, these markets are still bull markets. I will repeat: You. Are. Still. In. A. Bull. Market. This is something I had to change my own mind on recently, and sobering it was. Clarity it doth provided. And no matter how insane it may sound with all those fundamental factors kicking around telling you that the markets should crash, they aren't going to crash. In a time not-too-far-ahead you're going to see a _major_ and violent bull run that may see SPX 5,000 for real, and it may even happen before 2022 concludes. However, before that happens, you're going to be given a very difficult situation to buy the dip in, and that situation is upon us. The reality is that last week's colossal CPI dump and the resulting days of downturn really did amount to a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. However, you should also note that last week formed an outside bar, with ES futures closing on a ~50 point rally above 3,900. The reality of an outside bar is that although you're not one bit likely to see it turn around and make a new high the next week, you're also not very likely to see it continue on downwards sweeping new lows so easily. Looking at the Daily provides some lucidity. Equilibrium of last week's outside bar is a very fun 4014 points. What you should expect, now that SPX swept previous lows, is in all due fairness, a change in momentum and direction that serves the purpose of enticing longs to enter way, way too early, while also killing short sellers who are way, way too early. The truth is that while no crash is ahead, you'll feel like we had a crash because we're going to 3,400~ first, and that kind of a dump is probably going to stop being this choppy up and down fearless landside down stuff and will instead come fast and strong... when it happens. But before we get there, you are very likely to see significant upside manipulation. What's really hard about getting setup short for this move downwards is that the market makers have left a 200 point range that can be played with on and during FOMC day and when Big Jerome Powell speaks. FOMC rate hike = Wednesday J Powell speech = Friday And these really are the only two news events in the cards. Also keep in mind that counting FOMC day, there's still eight days left in the month to manipulate the markets A very difficult scenario to trade would be to see a bullish Monday and Tuesday followed by an FOMC rate hike pump. Even if the Fed hikes 100 bps, it can be used to pump the market. The logic you will hear in the news will be, "Well, didn't you anticipate this? Markets pumped because finally the Federal Reserve is taking care of inflation, so all this inflationary pain will be over sooner than we expected." And then perhaps when Powell speaks on Friday he will just say hawkish things, meaning that there's no intention to pivot/dove at the next FOMC, which is not until November, and so the markets will dump. The logic then, will be that "Rates are thus projected to reach 5.5% before the end of the year!!" Once the markets start dumping, you will probably see 2-3 weeks of very annoying and miserable downside, with little bouncing. This will be very punishing to dip buyers. You buy the dip because Apple looks really cheap and it keeps on running. "It's been a week and it's not bouncing. It has to bounce, right?" It will bounce when you get scared out or liquidated and see a 45 VIX print, and not before. The logic in all this is that although we have a significant shift in the tone of the markets, these markets are still markets that have liked to go wild bucking around and taking out both bears and bulls. They're about to become markets, however, that takes out just bulls, but only for a little while. The caveat to all this is the logic that "The trend is your friend... until the end." Once the big trend shifts is when a person tends to lose a lot of money. They buy the dip expecting to play the bounce only to get freight trained as it drives downwards. Or they short a pop expecting to catch a new target low, only to get ruined by a gap up that takes 18 months to correct. Well, you want to get rich, right? The truth is that you cannot change your life. You have what you have in your life because of certain causes. Have you ever thought about why you were born in the place and family and gender you are, and not another? Could something like this and all your social and work connections truly be random? A lot of people get ruined because they are trying to change their lives from what they have to what they think they want, what they think will give them the happiness they desire, what they think will satisfy their egotism. But you should know that this is a business that is established in society under Heavenly Mandate and if you are to succeed at it, it is because your life already has that predestined fortune. If you can take a proper attitude towards trading and take a more long term approach, you may be able to reap success. If you can't, then you'll always fail, because you'll always be gambling from a heart of jealousy. This is a time where it's very, very, very lucrative to position some trades on a two or a three month time frame. It's also a time that it's very, very, very important to wait to see a proper bottoming price location or a proper bottoming pattern before you go long. Lest you otherwise be 400 points and 15 days too early and then have to wait 40 days to ultimately make virtually nothing. Also, when it comes to a bull thesis, you should be weary about the situation in mainland China. The Chinese Communist Party will soon fall, and it will happen in the middle of the night North American time and US equities will gap down worse than FedEx did on Friday. Before that happens, though, you can expect prices to have risen to high places, because the Lords of Wall Street know exactly what is happening, and when, usually because they have their hands in the pile.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LordWrymouth
3
Nasdaq NQ - Bad News for Bears. But First, Bad News for BullsAfter observing recent price action in addition to the sentiment in trading communities and Twitter, I've been doing some hard thinking about the notion that we are now in a bear market. All the fundamentals say that there's such and such skyrocketing debt, food crisis, inflation, energy crisis, Europe crisis, currency crisis. And all of these fundamentals are true. And yet, most fundamentally, although the U.S. equities markets have retraced heavily since 2022 began, they are not in a bear market. Just look at Nasdaq on the monthly. This is not a bear market. Frankly, I went looking for an example of a bear market in both Bitcoin and WTI Crude And found that both of their monstrous retraces were simply natural results of their having gone parabolic in the first place. Never forget that it's a Law of the Cosmos that for every loss there is a gain, for each positive, there is a negative, and that when something reaches an extreme, it will reverse. If you don't believe it, just pick something up and throw it in the air and watch what happens. Nothing can stop the result of the action. The way traders treat a "bear market" is about as absurd as if humans were to treat the rising of the sun in the morning as if it were the VERY BEST THING THAT COULD EVER HAPPEN and the night like the END OF THE WORLD. Thousands of years ago when man was still primal and had no idea what was going on, perhaps they felt exactly that way. What we mean by a "bear market" really refers to a phase of time where traders are no longer able to mash buy on AAPL or TSLA at the top and make 3% per day without it even dipping. What we mean by a "bear market" is a phase in time where highs get melted down and new lows keep getting made, and that's really where we are and have been all year. And that's why nobody is happy. Seek and destroy markets are hard to trade. What I am getting at with all these words, is we are still in a bull market. We are just in the night time of the bull market. Several fundamental conditions have not been met for this world's economic heart to have entered either a recession or depression. The Fed has quietly been printing money and propping up the banks since 2019 . These Central Bank Central Government bailouts are now the norm, rather than the exception, because humanity is in trouble. And so, what I would like to say, is that we are very, very close to the point where being short is going to cost you your portfolio. We're not going to make new monthly lows. August wasn't the top. But we're also at a phase where going long is likewise going to cost you your portfolio. In my most recent SPX ES call, we were able to anticipate both the areas the MMs would retrace to and the upside areas they would take out, and both of those have been achieved: SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws However, as the price action unfolded in the week and I thought more and more about what was going on, I felt unsettled with the notion that JPowell's speaking was going to lead to a dump, and so I made a revised call on Nasdaq NQ Nasdaq NQ - 8 Days & 1,700 Points The problem I still feel in my guts about the above call is that although it's going up, and fast, and at the time I predicted, it's unsettlingly curious that the Lords of Wall Street were benevolent enough to let all the longs have such an easy time of it and not sweep out that July 18 pivot, despite coming so close, before we go on a 2,000+ point winning streak. That's just, not how they do things, man. Frankly the time we spent under 12,200 was also just simply too brief and too easy. And so, all of this leads me to today's call. Previously in August, I had anticipated that a 72 VIX is set to print, and I would imagine this would come when the June lows are taken out. VIX - 9x8 = 72 And while I thoroughly believe this is still in the cards, I now believe that we don't see this until late in the year or into 2023. Fundamentally, I believe the issue is that the Democratic Socialists of America Party require the stock markets to be happy ahead of and during the U.S. October Midterm Elections, because much of their voting base is teachers, unions, and old people, all of which have heavy investments in funds and pension plans that are neck deep long on everything establishment. And yet I also believe that we won't go up so easily, since fear is still yet to come. Looking at the weekly, I believe we have two critical inflection points. I believe that 15,500 is in the cards before 2022 is out, but we have unfinished business lower before that happens. It's like dancing, two steps forward, one step back. One step forward, two steps back. Never just forward, forward, forward, or back, back, back. Trendlines are about as scientific as looking up your horoscope on Yahoo, but people still do it, believe in it, and follow it, and so it is something that is simply going to be attacked. If you do it right, you can take advantage of the opportunities presented by not being the first mouse to go for the cheese. Price action on the daily shows that Friday's moon candle not only created a gap, but already took out all September highs and has already rebalanced a big August gap. What lies below, however, is our very solid and very crucial trendline, which also happens to correspond with a lot of wicks from June and July. Wicks are notable because they represent places of low volume trading. What I believe lies ahead is a case where we will quickly and violently descend towards the 11,650 range, test the trend line, break the trendline, and fill in all that volume in the wicks. To me, one of the biggest tells is that AAPL, which leads the Nasdaq, was actually _very_ bearish last week. Even on Friday, it was bearish. To me, this says it wants to continue to make new lows, which means everything else is going to make new lows. I believe that during September FOMC, the Fed will do something like a 50 bps hike instead of a 75 bps hike and/or revise their inflation target to 3% from 2%, and that will cause the markets to moon back towards 15,000. The Bank of Japan, which meets more or less the same day, will maintain Yield Curve Control on the 10Y Bond at 0.25% despite the annihilation of the Yen, which means the old money parade into U.S. equities will continue, and we will get a September FOMC melt up, not a melt down. Note that there is not another FOMC until November. We're not in a bear market. The June low was the low until at least the end of the year. After you see Apple post $198, let's see what happens in terms of VIX 72 and a bear market. No matter how bad things get, social stability is the Communist Party's number one priority. Ultimately, they need the United States to be fat and complacent and not revolt in order to maintain their power. They need to maintain their power to install Central Bank Digital Currencies, digital ID, and social credit across the globe. To do that, they need the U.S. equities market to keep delivering "the happy," to keep serving as a distraction, and to continue to give you something to gamble away your life savings on, so that your eyes are focused on everything besides what is important to your fundamental life. Marxist-Leninist rogues rule the world at present, but only for a little while longer. In the interim, if you trade against them, they will hurt you. So have some fun going long on TSLA and AAPL for now. Just make sure you take profits instead of thinking you caught the new paradigm. It will still take a few more months for Justice and Conscience to return to the surface of this world. In the meantime, WTI and Natural Gas are going to dump. WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind Bulls & Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull? And when all is said and done, where you want to have your money is in defense contractors and energy companies. Boeing BA - A Dark Harbour Good luck, and stay safe. The future is bright. But you have to fjord the river Jiang first.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LordWrymouth
12