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Futures Rise as Retail Traders Shrug Off Hottest CPI Since 1992Happy Friday folks! Let's get right into it today. US Futures traded relatively flat in the overnight session with the Dow down -0.12% to 34,420, the S&P down -0.11% to 4,233, the Russell up 0.29% to 2,315, and the Nasdaq up 0.07% to 13,969 as of 8:30AM. Yesterday's PA came as a bit of a surprise to trading desks across the Capital Markets, as the typical reaction to red hot inflation is a more hawkish shift in policy and an increase in the cost of servicing debt, pulling a significant amount of flows away from growth heavy indexes such as the Russell and Nasdaq, leading to more defensive positioning at the very least. However, sans the light selling on the Russell, what we saw was next to no fear at all, or demand for risk protection for that matter. Markets and particularly market signals are completely broken right now it would appear, as Billionaire Stan Druckenmiller rightly pointed out shortly after the red hot data. The best performing trading strategy over the past year has been buy and hold. So in other words, doing absolutely nothing but remaining as risk on as possible, this entire time, which many, if not most, retail traders have done, has outperformed hedge funds by 10 to 1. In my honest opinion, this is no longer a "market," far less an efficient or free market. The US10Y yield continued to fall as bond markets bought the Fed narrative of transitory inflation, and almost completely ignored Thursday's highest CPI print since 1992. The Dollar (DXY) rose 0.32% to 90.35 showing potential signs of derisking in growth, while Vix slipped back to a 15 handle, and is sitting at the lowest level since before the March 2020 lockdown crashed markets 35%. Gold is sitting just below 1,900 around 1,890 and is down -0.30% on the day, while Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose 1.38% to 37,215. Finally, USOIL rose 0.11% to 70.16. * I am/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Hedge_Of_The_World
9
Almost there....After lagging behind the other indices is it the QQQ's turn to break out to a new high? QQQ has obviously been leading (not saying much) as of late. Growth seems to be ready to explode again. So much short interest up here without a doubt. We have grinded the way up and that's not a bad thing necessarily. Looking for a bit of a move up overnight/premarket then fade the gap after open. Will be heavily shorted almost surely again in that situation as the gap from weeks ago is still to be closed. Perfect storm as we hold in the general range of ATH's. Can good news catalysts rock the coke machine enough to pick a firm direction with some sustainability? The charts will tell us soon.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Todoubled23
Which camp are you in? SPY based off of Elliot Wave TheoryBased on the Elliot Wave theory, there are three things that I think ya'll should check out. We are close to a correction but one of them is a two year bear market and the other is a 2-3 month correction before the next impulse wave to the upside. If you guys don't know anything about Elliot Wave theory, I highly recommend reading up on it. There are rules that must be followed but its pretty simple once you study it for a couple of days. Anyways if we sit below 320 on the SPY, we are in for a melt down that basically back tracks to March 2020 lows. If we bounce from 360, we're in for a big ride up to all new highs (SPY 500). But...that maybe the last leg of a real bull market that started in the 1990s (the beginning of digital age). The question is what camp am I in? I think the Fed wants inflation. And I think there is inflation. I literally paid close to $80 for 15lbs of Brisket at Costco when it used to be $35 a year ago. Chicken just got really expensive too. Cost of food is up. I think the Fed wants to raise interest rates. The Fed knows it doesn't have ammunition to soften the blow when a true problem erupts e.g. 2008 crash. With Fed Funds rate at 0, there is no room for mistakes. So my answer is we are in for a big pull back down to 320 but less steep like 2020 and the start of the big correction ABC like 2003 - 2008. Which camp are you in? What are your thoughts? Please like and share.
AMEX:SPY
by CTRLZEEE
1
Futures Flat, Investors Brace for Thursday's Inflation DataUS Futures traded relatively flat on Monday morning with the S&P up 0.01% to 4,228.75 (sitting just below the ATH), the Dow up 0.14% to 34,790, the Nasdaq down 0.10% to 13,753, and the Russell down 0.01% to 2,286.40 as of 8AM. The US10Y yield fell back to 1.58%, while the dollar (DXY) traded flat at 90.12. We saw another mini flash crash in Vix this morning (similar to June 1st) around 7AM, which saw Vix test a low of 15.78 before quickly bouncing back to 16.66. Over the weekend we saw the G7 come to an agreement on a 15% minimum corporate tax rate, which is expected to be rolled out to the G20 soon. Enforcement of the accord is another story, of course. Yesterday Yellen said she isn't concerned about higher inflation or higher rates in the near future, adding that they're "good for the Fed and US society." Clearly she doesn't understand how the market works and what will happen to asset valuations when the cost of debt rises; don't forget - Yellen was the one who said just a few years ago in 2017 that she doesn't think we'll see another financial crisis in our lifetimes. Needless to say, I don't place too much emphasis on anything she, or Powell for that matter, says. Later on today around 3PM we'll get the consumer credit report for April, which is expected to fall from the prior print of $25.8B to $22B. But, the main event this week is going to be the US consumer price report on Thursday, which based on the recent spike in used car prices, could reveal a shockingly high print, causing panic over the possibility of hyperinflation/stagflation as early as this year. The Fed, of course, will come out and say it's transitory as rapidly and as many times as possible following the print. That we can be certain of, as they're nothing more than a PR firm for Wall Street imo. Lastly, Bitcoin bulls are cheering on El Salvador President, Nayib Bukele, for advocating for Bitcoin this weekend in Miami at the largest Bitcoin conference to date, as a legal form of tender for the country. However, according to Goldman, 35% of Hedge Funds (25 CIO's from various hedge funds) see Bitcoin as their "least favorite" investment, while Growth was the "most favorite." Bank of America's global fund manager survey revealed that "long Bitcoin" was the most crowded trade on Wall Street (no surprise there). We're currently sitting at $36,651 and up around 2.35% on the day. I see us potentially retesting the 200DMA in the near term, before a continuation of the downtrend toward $20k.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
Nikkei's multiyear rising expanding wedge and probable outcomeI have the chart depiction of Nikkei's multiyear rising expanding wedge and outcome laid out here. In my understanding, the Dow, SnP 500 and all the rest of indexes worldwide will mirror this to the final lows in March 2022 and probably beyond. The standard price targets in that rising expanding wedge pattern along with possible cycle date timings are shown no matter of any timescales in the chart. That's about 56% decline from around the high of 30,700+. German DAX 30 shows expanding megaphone in the same range of years which is targeting all the way to 3,600 in coming years (end of 2023) if the megaphone pattern fully plays out in this large context. I know that it certainly does in smaller scales for the declines up to 30%. That will be one heck of a decline to witness in anybody's lifetime.
TVC:NI225Short
by tfinavia
DIA a market melting..... up?!This is a great example of a market that is melting.... up. Every day for the past week and a half we have seen a market that opens speculatively higher and closes lower than the open. If you are looking at markets in general that are healthy you will see that most green candles support an upwards trend while most red candles support a downward trend. This is very different and cause for concern that there is a large inflationary bubble in the market right now waiting for a moment of sell off. To be completely honest we are short DIA with contracts expiring June 18th and 25th from the "Out of the Market" phrase large red candle on the chart. This open higher and close lower continually has to stop one way or another.
AMEX:DIAShort
by swimmax
2
May Day for the DIAMy count has Wave E down on deck for DIA/DJI. In the current wave pattern the wave i up (of Wave D) was so short/quick, thus prediction is that wave v (of Wave D) will also terminate quickly and I think it did today. Stoch RSI appears to be confirming and the Woodies CCI popped a +200 today indicating a possible turn. I had originally thought this might be a simpler ABC down but see chart for couple of prior corrective wave patterns for comparison. The Wave C in the current pattern is too short for an ABC down IMO, thus Wave E is in play. Only question is will it happen tomorrow on the last trading day in May. Will it truly be a sell in May and go play? Somehow I think they will keep this thing afloat until next week. Enjoy the Holiday on Monday if you are in the states. Not financial advice.
TVC:DJIShort
by Akksujean
QE, Buy-Backs, BTFD, and Fed Rhetoric Save MarketsHey guys, I hope everyone had a nice relaxing weekend. After a freakish drift higher on the US majors yesterday toward the ATH's, and off the back of a week straight of buy-backs, QE, and dip buying, the SPY is back at the lower band of the ascending green channel (resistance) around 420. Of course, we can't not mention the FED members parading around every day, spreading more transitory-inflation rhetoric to boost sentiment and cool yields. On SPY, we recently saw 2 tests of the 50DMA, first on May 12th, and then again on May 19th. But, we saw strong support, just as we have in the recent past. I expect a rejection at this level, similar to the rejection we saw on May 14th at outside channel resistance. We have initial downside to the 21EMA at 414.25, and then, of course, a retest of the 50DMA is likely this week around 408.50. On the Nasdaq (QQQ), we're sitting at 334 pre market as of 9AM, and likely to retest the high from Feb 16th around 338 before getting a rejection. The momentum is to the upside as the 21EMA, 50DMA, and 100DMA has been recaptured. The Russell (IWM) is sitting just at the 21EMA around 221, with the 50DMA just above us at 222.34, and the 100DMA just below around 219, and the Dow (DIA) is sitting at the top of it's recent range, and within a couple percentage points of the ATH. Gold has been levitating just above the 200DMA after the recent dollar puke, and spike in bonds, while Bitcoin (BTCUSD) recovered slightly to a 37k handle after the insane 54% crash that we all knew was coming. WTI (USOIL) is sitting around 66 and showing resilience as FED burns the dollar back to an 89 handle. The Vix is sitting at 18.2 after retesting the descending trendline we broke through on May 11th. We hit a low of 16.9 this morning around 7AM, but are poised to recapture the white ascending trendline around 18.6, with 18.8 resistance back in play. Finally, the US10Y yield is being sold off as the FED down plays inflation as transitory, and although the cup and handle formation is still potentially going to materialize, based on previous tests of long term resistance, it may be several weeks before we see a breakout. I just want to say thanks again for everyone's patience last week as I took some time off, it was a rough week. My cat Franco was in and out of the vet, and had his final surgery which went well, thankfully. Then my dog Pompey died. When it rains it pours I guess, but he was 18 years old, and had a great life, so I'm finally smiling now when I think of him instead of crying. Time to get back on track. :) Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
9
DIA / USDSeems like a pennant forming with DIA against the USD, I'm taking a punt on this set up for sure. Stop loss set up in the case that there is a breakout to the downside, which I hope there is not. There seems to be support on the daily excluding the wicks so I'm assuming (hoping) it continues to hold. DIA is basically a less-known oracle, similar to #Chainlink, with a much smaller marketcap! Oracles will be big business in the future in my mind... I will take profits around the $7.60 area, possible 100% of the bag that I am now holding. Trade safe homies, never with debt and only what you can afford to lose! Alfa
by Free_Alfalfa