DIAUSDT.2HLooking at the DATA/USDT chart, the price appears to be fluctuating within a fairly well-defined range, indicative of a consolidation phase in the market.
The Ichimoku Cloud is present but not providing a clear trend signal since the price action is choppy and overlapping with the cloud. The Conversion Line and the Base Line are intertwined, which typically indicates a lack of directional momentum. Moreover, the Lagging Span is within the price action, not offering a clear bullish or bearish signal.
The RSI is at approximately 50, reinforcing the indecision observed in the price action and Ichimoku Cloud. It's neither in the overbought nor the oversold region, suggesting the absence of immediate buying or selling pressure.
The MACD is showing very little separation between the MACD line and the signal line, accompanied by a flat histogram, which further confirms the current market indecision.
Resistance levels are identified at R1 (0.0891 USDT) and R2 (0.10295 USDT), while support levels are denoted by S1 (0.06279 USDT). Given these observations, my trading plan would involve waiting for a decisive breakout above R1 or a breakdown below S1 before establishing a position. A breakout above R1 could suggest potential long entries with targets near R2, while a breakdown below S1 may indicate potential short entries with considerations for further support at lower levels.
In light of the current market structure, it's important to note that the consolidation pattern can persist until a catalyst induces a breakout. Trading within the range can be risky due to the possibility of a false breakout, so I would prefer to wait for a strong volume move confirming the breakout direction. As always, I would keep an eye on broader market news and sentiment as these can heavily influence price action outside of technical patterns.
DIA
DIAUSDT.4HAnalyzing the DIA/USDT chart, I observe a few key technical elements. The price is currently trading in a narrow range, which is encapsulated within the Ichimoku Cloud. This often indicates indecision in the market as traders wait for a clearer signal on the direction of the trend.
The Ichimoku Cloud is flat, which reinforces the indecisive sentiment, indicating a lack of strong trend. The Conversion Line (blue) is above the Base Line (red), which typically suggests bullish sentiment; however, the price being within the cloud doesn't give a clear bullish signal just yet.
The RSI is at a neutral 51, which doesn't suggest overbought or oversold conditions and aligns with the market's current consolidation phase.
The MACD indicates a recent bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line. While this could suggest some bearish momentum, the closeness of the lines and the small histogram values indicate that the bearish momentum is not strong.
The chart indicates resistance at R1 (0.7480 USDT) and R2 (0.8196 USDT), while support levels are marked at S1 (0.6469 USDT) and a further significant level at SZ (0.5346 USDT). These levels will be important to watch for potential breakouts or breakdowns.
From a trading perspective, I would remain on the sidelines until a clearer signal emerges. A breakout above the Ichimoku Cloud and the resistance at R1 might suggest a potential long position with targets at R2. Conversely, a breakdown below the cloud and S1 could signal a short position with the target at SZ. Given the MACD's recent bearish crossover, I would be cautious of a potential downward move, but without a significant momentum indicator, I would wait for additional confirmation before entering a trade.
DIAUSDT.4H
For the DIA/USDT chart you've provided, here's what stands out in the analysis:
Timeframe: The chart is set to a 4-hour timeframe, which gives insights into medium-term trends and potential inflection points.
Ichimoku Cloud: Since the price appears to be trading within the Ichimoku Cloud, this usually suggests a lack of a strong trend and a potential consolidation phase.
Support and Resistance Levels:
R1 (Resistance 1) is around 0.6880 USDT, which might act as a ceiling for price action.
S1 (Support 1) marked at 0.6471 and lower, potentially offering floors where price bounces could occur.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is below the signal line and hovering around the zero line, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish momentum. The histogram being close to zero confirms this neutrality.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 56.12, which is relatively neutral. It indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
Price Action: The price has experienced volatility with several spikes up and down. It appears to be moving sideways currently, within a range marked by the support and resistance levels.
Overall Interpretation: The DIA/USDT pair is showing signs of consolidation with no clear directional trend in the medium term as indicated by the Ichimoku Cloud and MACD. It’s trading between established support and resistance levels, which could be used for range-bound strategies unless a breakout occurs. The lack of a strong trend suggests traders might wait for clearer signals such as a breakout above R1 or a drop below S2 for directional trades. Remember, it’s important to consider updates in the market that might affect the sentiment and to apply proper risk management strategies in trading.
QQQ (Nasdaq etf) - Potential Bearish Momentum - WeeklyQQQ (nasdaq etf) has been uptrending for over a year (2023 to 2024).
However, signs of a potential pullback in the long-term charts are showing with the price and rsi oscillator.
In the long-term, a potential pullback may occur in the price, and the price could fall down to $426, $419, $400, $394 support levels.
Long-term resistance levels are: $460, $470, $480, $500.
QQQ etf volatility and trend can be affected by FOMC Interest Rates, Corporate Earnings, Consumer Sentiment, and Global Event Catalysts.
A major bearish catalyst or a series of bearish events would be needed to reverse the price back down.
Note: Without bearish events, the price of QQQ could continue rallying to new all-time highs.
DIAUSDT.4HOn the 4-hour chart for DIA/USDT, the technical analysis suggests that the price action is currently within a bullish phase but experiencing a pullback.
Uptrend Line: A rising support trendline is visible, indicating an established uptrend. The price has recently pulled back to this line, which could provide a springboard for further upward movement if the trend remains intact.
Resistance Levels (R1, R2): The resistance levels are marked at 0.7557 USDT (R1) and higher (R2), which is not fully shown on the chart. These are the prices where the asset previously faced selling pressure.
Support Level (S1): The immediate support level is at 0.6191 USDT (S1). This level may act as a floor in the short term, where buyers might come in to uphold the price.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is slightly above the signal line, indicating that the bullish momentum might still be in play, although it appears to be weakening as the histogram is quite flat.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is around 62, which is neither in the overbought nor in the oversold territory. This indicates that there may still be room for price movement in either direction without immediate pressure from these extremes.
Conclusion:
As a trader, I would view the approach to the rising support trendline as a potential buying opportunity, with the understanding that the trend might continue. However, I would also set a stop loss below the support level to protect my position against a potential breakdown of the trend. If the price bounces off the support trendline and moves upward, I would look to the resistance levels as targets for taking profits. On the other hand, a break below the trendline could indicate a shift in trend, and I would reassess my strategy accordingly, potentially looking for shorting opportunities. As always, it's important to stay updated with the latest market developments and news that could affect the sentiment and price action.
20 day PUT/CALL SELL is now been given I am now moved to a net short the spy at 95% long in the money 510 puts for dec 2024 .I am holding out to move to a 100 to a 115 % short if we can have two thing occur .1st the sp prints 5055 and the vix on the 9 day prints 11.30 or lower.I have been waiting for the 5071 target and the dji of 38950to 39450 focus 39100 .But I saw some math as to why we stopped at 5048 . The nyse as just seen a record high today on a print basis and as we are very close the ENEMY of Good is PERFECTION
$SPY Normal Pullback?I am posting the AMEX:SPY chart as many of the trade ideas I have posted over the last few weeks have not worked out well. This chart tells the story. The market has been choppy. While it is my belief that this is a normal pullback in a stronger secular trend, as a trader, I need to simply trade the chart in front of me and right now the market is fading. Many high growth stocks (the ones I concentrate on) have seen outsized declines as compared to the AMEX:SPY , $SPX. The NASDAQ:QQQ is similar.
I have made some notations on the chart that show what I am seeing. The biggest thing I notice is the decline in volume as this market pulls back. That tells me that there is no big rush for the door. That said, I would not be surprised to see this pullback to the 50 DMA which also aligns with the initial break-out area. Above that, there is an area that may see support and turn back up. It is all TBD.
In summation, it is time to simply observe the market and individual stocks. Those stocks that are holding up well may be the new leaders. Some of the existing leaders may pullback and set-up for great entries. All TBD. Patience is key until you see the market turn higher.
I welcome any feedback or comments. Thanks for taking the time to check this out.
$DJI Looks okay but $SPX showing more strength, $VIX weak#CPI data is out and it came out a lil higher than expected
TVC:DJI broke out of the small downtrend officially yesterday
However, volume was weak, likely because of CPI data today
Keep an eye on RSI & $ Flow for guidance in direction.
Want to see break above for RSI.
Holding 36kish is a good sign for AMEX:DIA
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Not much on NASDAQ:NDX so focus on SP:SPX it is.
RSI shows this to could be picking up steam soon. Looks interesting. However, the $ FLOW could be better.
TVC:VIX is weakening. While it roared louder than last time it's already whimpering and cowering.
Being weak can be more fuel to the bull case we mentioned a few times.
Bumps here & there but #stocks looks to be higher.
Tons more data, for more info, see out profile
$DJI still rangebound, $VIX weakening again, Yields mixedGood morning update.
The TVC:DJI is still within the range. Logical as investors are awaiting CPI on Thursday. This will guide on cuts to #InterestRates.
The SP:SPX showing some strength & currently in small trend higher.
But the CLOSING is VERY IMPORTANT. Day range is nice but always respect the closing.
TVC:VIX is weakening again.
TVC:RUT is still in a rut 😆
There's a lot of mixed data!
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#Yields 2yr & less are looking weak & trading under all short term avg's.
Longer term are looking better, normalization of curve?
Weekly shows huge selloff but RSI is stabilizing.
US #Dollar looking to take its current downtrend out.
TVC:DXY
That's it for now, ENJOY your day!!!
$DJI now in short term downtrend, NDX, SPX & RUT already wereLooks like the TVC:DJI is in a short term downtrend.
NASDAQ:NDX SP:SPX & TVC:RUT all are in short term down trends which begin couple days or so ago.
TVC:VIX is at higher end of the recent pattern and it keeps poking it.
*(TOOK THIS FROM ANOTHER POST
Remember, the more something is poked the weaker it becomes
Picture paper holding a marble
Poke with a needle
Poke enough & that marble falls
Same works to the upside)*
The TVC:TNX or10 yr #yield looks to be setting up decently on the 4hr intraday.
#stocks
$DJI vs $NDX vs RatesSince the "outside" day. The DJ:DJI index has flip flopped above and below the top part of the outside day line.
It wants to push higher but when NASDAQ:NDX craters, like it's doing today, it's a lil tough.
Since we're doing intraday charts, let's do DJ:DJI as well.
What's the biggest thing that sticks out to you on the last chart?
Hint: Look at the bottom 2 panes.
It could all tie in with a bump in higher rates. IMO not a top. Not enough euphoria. But could be a short term top. We'll see.
DIA MAJOR TOP 377.5 to 382.7 I am now 100 % short today I have now moved to 100 % long PUTS in the money 380 puts for june 2024 Look for an event on or about jan 11 to the 18 th if the dow at anytime can reach into 38200 to 38400 I will add 15 % long puts we are now 1.8 % above the dji monthly BB BANDS market panics since 1902 to today have seen drops and beginning BEAR MARKETS from 1.4 to 3.5 % above this point as of today we hit 1.8 % PUT CALL MODELS are at july peak and Bullish SEDIMENT is now into BELL RING warning signals into a low due march 10 to the 20th . best of trades WAVETIMER
$DJI regains some ground, $RUT leading, $VIX strugglesAfter the outside day formed by TVC:DJI , it pumped a bit and regained most of what was lost in that 500pt loss.
1Hr chart sows it trading back above the moving avgs (intraday).
TVC:RUT is the only index that has traded ABOVE its recent highs.
TVC:VIX is struggling to close above a small resistance area, 14.
#stocks
GOOD NEWS BAD NEWS for SPY DIAThe SVXY peaked right into the target of 104 at 103.65 For wave 5 of 3 of 5 we just saw wave 4 low . we did the exact in most every Aspect in svxy and the sp 500 . this lead to the last draw out battle from july 6 to july 27 final peak. 20 days if we align the two time frames we get a TOP 1/ 11/2024 see chart golden ratio spirals they are near perfect MATCH this would take the svxy to target of 106 and put the VIX at under a 12 handle
Technical study of this INSANELY powerful bull market!Once again, the indices are rising strongly. While the SPY is heading towards its all-time high, the QQQ and the Dow Jones ETF are already breaking a new all-time record, again. When will we see the market calm down again? What if a top signal appears on the indices?
The SPY ETF is in a clear uptrend, making rising tops and bottoms, breaking its resistances and trading above the 21 EMA (which is pointing upwards, by the way). The next technical resistance is at $479.98, the all-time high.
Are there any signs of a top in the SPY, either from a candlestick pattern or a chart? None that I know of. On December 14th we had an attempt to signal a top, a sort of Hanging Man pattern. The problem is that the pattern wasn't even triggered, as the price had to lose and close below the low of the Hanging Man candle.
This corroborates what was said in my educational analysis on SPY. Many people try to guess the top based on weak technical patterns, they get scared of one or two bearish candles even without confirmation of a correction. The link to our latest public study on SPY is below this post.
Furthermore, according to Thomas Bulkowski's studies, the Hanging Man pattern serves as a bullish continuation pattern 59% of the time, contrary to the popular belief that it is a bearish reversal pattern. Perhaps this is because of the hourly chart.
The vast majority of the time, a Hanging Man only serves as a short-term pullback to a support point. In this case, looking at the hourly chart, we see that after the 14th, highlighted in yellow, we see a correction to a support area, made not only by the 21 EMA, but also by a trend line that connects the bottoms in SPY since December 6th.
As SPY approaches its high, we see QQQ and DIA trading above their previous high of 2021/2022 (green lines). There is no evidence known to me that could trigger a correction yet. The uptrend should continue in the absence of clear signs of a reversal. Remember the sixth principle of Dow Theory: Trends persist until a clear reversal occurs.
What if the indexes correct? Then the price should seek its previous supports. In the case of the SPY and QQQ, the 21 EMA is a good candidate for a bottom. The DIA could correct up to $369.50, its former resistance, which in theory will be a future support, according to the principle of polarity. This scenario describes a pullback, not a reversal, as there is no possible bearish reversal structure on the indices yet – there isn’t even a top signal. What could trigger a bearishh reversal? If a bull trend is made of higher highs/lows, then if we see the price making lower highs/lows, and if it loses the 21 EMA on the daily chart, then we'll know that the trend is reversing.
However, I do agree that if the market calms down, now the timing would be perfect, as the indices are all trading around their all-time high, a critical price level for the market. I’ll keep you updated on this, so remember to support this idea if you liked it, and follow me for more.
Best regards,
Nathan.
$SPX at IMPORTANT area! DJ:DJI is fighting to stay above, hang around resistance.
NASDAQ:NDX came back & fighting to chug higher as well.
VERY IMPORTANT AREA for $SPX!!!!!!!
Strength has subsided but it's not down yet.
Could AMEX:SPY retest the highs?
TVC:VIX is holding but doesn't look fully awake. Hmmm...
#stocks AMEX:DIA NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY
SDOW a Dow Shorting ETF Long from an Intermediate Term BottomSDOW has leveled off at a near-term bottom after a downtrend as confirmed by bullish
divergence on the RSI and MACD while the price went sideways in consolidation.
Volatility has contracted as have trading volumes. I see this as a buying
opportunity with a stop loss of 20.5 below the low pivot in consolidation and the first
target at 22 underneath a standard retracement with the final target at 25 in the area of
the early November pivot high. A call option set at a strike of $22 expiring in 4-7 months
is a supplement to the idea. I expect that interest rate fades or any lessening of geopolitical
tensions may affect things throughout the trade and perhaps force trade management along the
way. Overall, I have an expectation of 18% for the shares and about 100% for the call option.
IWN Russel Index ETF ShortIWN on the reliable daily chart has been trending down for two in a descending channel as
shown on the chart with upper and lower trendlines drawn with the tool. The Stochastic RSI
oscillates in the interval between oversold and over bought and presently is well
overbought at nearly 100. While the RSI may double top like it did in July, it is at least right now
at the first top. The zero lag MACD is confirmatory with a K/D line cross well above the
histogram. I will play this by buying a put option at a strike of $ 150 for October 24
If Biden tries to prompt up the market to gain a re- election and is successful, this will get
stopped out. If interest rates are not pulled back by the fed soon, small caps will continue to get crushed.
On the other hand when rates are pulled back, they will be nimble and recover quicker than
the large caps and it will get stopped out. I think the fed will pullback rates to help Biden
out, although the fed is not partisan ?
Oil prices in their downward trend lend support to a slow fall off in the inflation rate.
What goes for IWN also goes for DIA.
Dow Jones ETF (DIA) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:DIA chart anaylsis/mapping.
DIA ETF on relative strength compared to recent SPY/QQQ performance, indicating potential market rotation.
Trading scenarios:
Continuation rally #1 = top range of Fib.
Shallow pullback #1 = ascending trend-line (white) / ascending trend-line (green dashed) / gap fill confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #2 = gap fills / descending trend-line (light blue) / 78.6% Fib confluence zone.
Deeper pullback #1 = Golden Pocket Fib / 200MA confluence zone.
Capitulation #1 = 50% Fib / ascending trend-line (light blue).
Capitulation #2 = gap fills / 38.2% Fib confluence zone.
Capitulation #3 = gap fills / 23.6% Fib confluence zone.