Update Dow for short term I believe the rise from a major bottom is a correction wave (ABC). the price now in the last fifth wave of C or 1 of C. Both scenario indicate that the price should make new high and this is a good opportunity for the short-term trader. I am in since last week and my SL is the bottom of last week. There is another suggestion that wave 4 has not completed anf unfold as a complex correction but less likely.
DIA
Is the Dow Jones 🐂 Ready to Rumble? | DOW JONES MINI FUTURES ($🐮 The DOW (DJI, DIA, YM1!, UDOW, etc) is rallying based on recent strength shown by key players like Disney, the banks, Boeing, Exxon, etc. Looking at Dow Jones Mini Futures (YM1!) we can see a new clear bull trend forming... but we also see a clear-as-day support level to be tested to help confirm this rally. Perhaps the shift out of the NASDAQ's COVID hedge plays and into DOW darlings causes a correction in all markets, perhaps bank stocks run up against resistance and need to cool down. Whatever spurs on the retest of support, so be it. The plan here is simple regardless, we are aiming to buy support and catch a ride on the post-COVID bull.
Resource: www.investors.com + www.fool.com + www.cnbc.com
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1. Fractal Trend is showing an uptrend (Aqua colored bars) on the 4-hour timeframe. This is the first notable confirmation of an uptrend on YM1! and is indicative of the recent strength in DOW holdings.
2. With this strategy, we are looking for long setups in an uptrend and as such want to enter long on retests of bullish order blocks plotted by Orderblock Mapping (Aqua colored lines) and/or bullish S/R levels plotted by Directional Bias (Aqua colored lines).
3. The goal here is to take a long position at the S1 S/R flip since that has been a major price pivot point during the COVID correction.
4. Our stop loss is placed just below S1, with the logic being that S1 will hold.
5. Our target is the R2 highs formed during a dead cat bounce back in March.
6. If S1 doesn't hold, then S2 offers another support level, although the current bullish bias on the DOW would be lost at that point.
Good luck bulls!
US30/DOW 4HOUR chart: TP bulls 24750 points(NEW)Why get subbed to to me on Tradingview?
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🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
. US30/DOW 4hour chart review
. bullish mid-term
. strong bullish XABCD reversal
. current bid is 23630 points
. TP1 bulls is 24250 points
. TP2 bulls is 24750 points
. strategy: short-term: BUY DIPS
. TP is +1000 points from here
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
. N/A
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals
. N/A
Today's end of session selloff triggered my sell signal for SPYI am trying a new combination of indicators on my TOS platform for swing trading. Right now it reads RED/Bearish for SPY and DIA but not yet for QQQ. It will be confirmed at the open tomorrow. I will let you know. When I back test this indicator, it seems pretty reliable. Let's track it in the next few weeks...
The above are for education and entertainment only. They must not be interpreted as investment advice nor recommendations. Trade at your own risk and mostly, trade safely and keep safe!
Sentiment on Gold is WAY TOO bullish short term The sentiment on gold and gold stocks is way too bullish for the short term. I am not a bear and I am bullish on gold mid to long term but gold has to flex lower to get the power it needs to get past $1800. If the stock market ) rolls over, which I think it will, gold will not escape the selling pressure. Then it will bottom and be ready for the sky rocket move everyone expects. Also, keep an eye on DXY. Any surge in DXY will send gold lower. Just thoughts ...
Current contrarian position with PUTS on GDX (15 May) as well as PUTS on SPY (June 19)
P.S. GDX is up 2.1% on the day... good entry point???
Disclaimer: The above is only my opinion and in no way can it be interpreted as investment advice. Trade at your own risk and do you own due diligence.
Beer time for the Bears? Please like if you find this helpful
The last two days have been a long awaited (small) victory for the bears. Could the market have topped after been rejected at the 200 EMA?
I will explain why the sell off Thursday and Friday could be the real deal
Fundamental Analysis
1. The Gild/COVID Bounce - For those who have been following my SPY ideas, I have talked about the GILD bounce (Covid therapy) on a number of occasion and how the market would react to it and my last idea titled "another Covid Optimism Bounce" showed where I expected the bounce would end.
2 While the market was selling off Friday it was announced that the Gild drug had been approved for emergency use but the market shrugged the news off and sold off anyway.
3. That was a bad sign for the markets that GILD or any positive Covid news did not affect the market in a positive way as it has in the last few weeks. (Getting a vaccine would be a different case).
4. The tariff talk, sell in may (and go on vacation (non this year due to covid) ), the end of the earning season for the major tech companies could also have caused the market to start selling off. Due in part because the US did not fully shutdown the economy until march, which meant most companies were still able to meet of beat on earnings. This could have been a part( as well as the Covid optimisms ) of the market rally we had since march.
5.The question remains, what happens to the next earnings? IMO not as good.
6. The Buffet indicator which is used by some to value the market reads with a ratio = 132.3%, Significantly Overvalued as of 05/02/2020.
7. Shiller PE Ratio: 26.50 which is about where we were in 2008.
8. The retail (Brick and mortar) bankruptcies have yet to begin and even amazon is having to invest all its profit back into the market.
9. None of this sound like we should be in a bullish market except that the fed is pumping trillions into the market.
Technical Analysis
1. The bears where looking at trendline (t1) for a break below to enter a short position but the market kept on heading higher
2. The bulls claimed t2 should be the trendline used but has now been broken after reaching the 200ema.
3. The question now, are we going to consolidate side ways before the next move up? In my opinion if we continue to consolidate sideways we could start to move higher but if we gap down below T3 on Monday the bears are in control
4. I have placed many support and resistance lines in the chart to look for. When we go below a support line, it now turns into a resistance and VSV.
5. Volume had been slowing for a while now, (which isn't that bad in of it self) but I noticed in the last 3 days (and two sell off days) volume is starting to pick up again. This is part of the ABC reversal where volume increases in Wave A, declines on wave B and increases again on Wave C as selling picks up.
6. Looking at the RSI we are heading towards a support level which acted as a resistance on our way up, then acted as a support recently. if we break it to the down side then all options are open.
7. lastly On a weekly chart, we have a shooting star which seem to appear at the end of an uptrend.
Last but not least the fed is pumping a shipload of money into the market but in my opinion, the big boys are selling as the market kept going higher (its the way they get their own stimulus check) and we can see that when looking at the macd for the week and monthly. Especially in the month of April which was all green on the daily is light red on weekly and increasing red on monthly.
Even Buffet increased his cash balance with about 9.2 billion from last year to a now total of 137 billion. If he isn't buying then why should I buy or any retailer?
I leave with this question someone asked: if you had been asleep for the last three months and after you woke up where told of the global shutdown and COVID Cases. You are then asked to predict how many points you would expect the market would be down?
In my opinion, I would only be comfortable to enter the market at whatever answer I give.
Please do your due diligence and invest wisely.
US30/DOW bullish outlook TP 26 000(NEW)before we kick start the update. your upvotes/subs are appreciated.
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-TOP author on TradingView
-professional chart break downs
-key levels
-no junk on my charts
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-24/7 uptime so constant updates
So without further due. Keep it short/simple and to the point.
US30/DOW bullish outlook TP 26 000(NEW)
IMPORTANT: this is a speculative setup, performance
is not guaranteed, so please use a tight stop loss.
and always do your own due dill. thank you.
US30/DOW(WTI) 4hour chart review.
We got a speculative 5 wave sequence setup on 4hour
chart US30, gap fill near 26000 is required to
complete wave3, later on I expect a pullback
and another bull run final TP bulls is 27500
end of April 2020.
Recommended strategy: buy dips, exit near 26000.
Gap fill is the target for bulls.
Look to buy low near range lows, use a tight stop loss.
get subbed to stay tuned for all the latest updates.
also add likes to support my efforts, thank you.
good luck traders.
$DIA Bears VS BULL Final Round (Bears are against the ropes)Possible start of a bull market or just a reprieve for the bulls? Will the Bears strike a knockout punch? Or do the Bulls have Aaron Rodgers for the hail Mary? The war is nail biting and only the victors write history.
Technical Analysis: I think the market is in a very important place facing 3 major resistance after its latest run up. From a technical perspective the run up in equities is still well within what is expected for a re-tracement and what I believe to be the B wave in an ABC correction. I have noted the major resistances I feel we need to hurdle past before we can call this a new Bull market. Next week will be telling and I would not go into next week short or long any positions (unless they are long term trades). A lot can happen over the long weekend but I fail to see how things can be assumed as okay in the financial world even after (and hopefully soon) we get past covid and people get back to work.
A lot of damage has been done to the world and we could be headed to a global recession.
For the bulls, if we do break above R3 then we can expect shorter bull market before the bears regroup to fight another war.
Please do your DD