Microsoft ($MSFT) and Apple ($APPL) 💻 | New Highs for the Market🐮🖥️🐮 Apple and Microsoft are giants of tech and some of the largest holdings of the major indexes. If these companies run, not to mention the other tech giants like Facebook and Alphabet, then the markets will almost certainly run with them.
Just look at the top 5 holdings of the S&P :
Microsoft Corporation 5.68%
Apple Inc. 5.60%
Amazon.com, Inc. 4.26%
Facebook, Inc. Class A2.16%
Alphabet Inc. Class A1.68%
Alphabet Inc. Class C1.68%
Here are the top 5 holdings of the Nasdaq :
Apple Inc. 11.83%
Microsoft Corporation 11.41%
Amazon.com, Inc. 10.25%
Facebook, Inc. Class A 4.35%
Alphabet Inc. Class A 3.88%
Alphabet Inc. Class C 3.85%
Here is the top DOW holdings With non-tech excluded (Microsoft is the 6th on the list, Apple is still #1):
Apple Inc.9.14%
Microsoft Corporation 5.07%
It should be obvious to you now what we mean when we say " if these stocks run, then the market runs ." We mean, they are the biggest parts of the major indexes!
This is good news for the bulls, because run is exactly what is about to happen based on historical trends.
Some people seem to think that these tech stocks rushing past new all-time-highs perhaps signals the top of not only these companies but the market. In fact, we commonly hear this sort of sentiment every time it happens. Reality is just the opposite.
The fact that these companies are breaking all-time-highs is actually bullish for them and the market as a whole.
On top of that, the news is bullish for these companies as well (COVID aside). We have new iPhones, a slick new MacBook Pro, a new Surface Duo, and a declaration against Face ID for Microsoft.
In short, there is nothing really substantial to bring these giants down aside from the broader market, but again, it is more likely they bring the market up. Don't take our word for it though, the historic patterns are clearly illustrated on our charts.
On the charts, you can see yellow horizontal lines marking off each new high. You can clearly see that the longstanding pattern is that breaking a new high is bullish for both Apple and Microsoft (with this being true in spite of any bearish disbelief).
In summary, breaking all-time-highs with conviction is bullish for the tech giants, which is bullish for the markets. So after that last break, our only questions are "when" and "how high?"
Resources: www.etf.com + www.forbes.com + www.forbes.com + www.foxnews.com + mspoweruser.com
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DIA
$DXY $SPY inverse correlation very strong.The only thing you should look at for predictive analysis at this point is what $DXY is doing. You can see the correlation in the chart here, one goes up, the other goes down. Look at key levels for the dollar, and currency / bond markets to figure this out. The SPY is all stimulus fluff at this point held up by the dollar, but guess what, you can only prop it up for so long, as soon as liquidity shrinks ( when the stimulus effects die off), its gonna be hard to get cash, so you'll have to get it from your portfolio. And with the rally in Bonds today, well... lets just say there a point to be made about where people want to put their risk.
Bears lost (get over it) the final round.Please do you Due diligence and invest wisely
From my last DIA post I presented the Bears Vs Bull case and pointed out at what level I felt would decide who won the final round. I also pointed out the bull vs bear trap area which played out for many weeks to trap as much bears as possible.
Now I think the market will make new all time highs and every dip in my opinion will be a chance to go long. The fed owns the market and has tipped the scale in favor of the market now the FOMO has begun in retail who will be the ones to push the market to all time highs.
INFINITY MODELER SPX 3200 unthinkable bottomWelcome trading viewers
I present to you beyond technical analysis/axiom quantification of prices.
Maybe you think its a vodoo or something, behind the scene is complex set of modelers in conjunction to price.
Spx bottom in.. did i predict the unthinkable.. maybe i did or may be i did not
Theee years from now we will look at this chart and ponder about the magnification of our ideas.
Stop loss 2120 and target 3200 the global optimum of multi objective optimization
Intermarket analysis expects SHORT in the INDEXES!Hi traders,
today´s video combines educational content and analysis of 4 major Indexes. BUT!
We do not analyze them separately, but together - WE DO THE INTERMARKET ANALYSIS.
It is this approach that will show you whether an index is overvalued or undervalued. How is that possible? There is a great correlation between them.
Look a the NASDAQ guys. That´s the only one, who reached the last Highest High! Again - THE ONLY ONE!
What we can expect? SHORT, because NASDAQ is too extended.
Have good trading,
Jakub
FINEIGHT
US30/DOW Daily: almost maxed out, 30% sell off soon(NEW)Why get subbed to to me on Tradingview?
-TOP author on TradingView
-15+ years experience in markets
-Professional chart break downs
-Supply/Demand Zones
-TD9 counts / combo review
-Key S/R levels
-No junk on my charts
-Frequent updates
-Covering FX/crypto/US stocks
-24/7 uptime so constant updates
US30/DOW Daily: almost maxed out, 30% sell off soon(NEW)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: US30/Dow recovery almost complete now
::: expecting major weakness soon
::: it's possible that we get
::: a few sessions in range lock
::: to develop the distribution setup
::: 20-30% mark down off the current highs
::: re-test near 18500/19000 points
::: STRATEGY: short sell any rallies
::: good luck traders
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
::: N/A
::: N/A
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies
::: TD9/Combo update: N/A
::: Sentiment: BEARS
::: Sentiment outlook short-term: BEARISH
::: fundumentals also deteriorating fast
::: all the good news already priced in.
::: this is also important for CRYPTO
::: because next leg down in US stocks
::: may lead to mark down 30% in CRYPTO assets
Update Dow for short term I believe the rise from a major bottom is a correction wave (ABC). the price now in the last fifth wave of C or 1 of C. Both scenario indicate that the price should make new high and this is a good opportunity for the short-term trader. I am in since last week and my SL is the bottom of last week. There is another suggestion that wave 4 has not completed anf unfold as a complex correction but less likely.
Is the Dow Jones 🐂 Ready to Rumble? | DOW JONES MINI FUTURES ($🐮 The DOW (DJI, DIA, YM1!, UDOW, etc) is rallying based on recent strength shown by key players like Disney, the banks, Boeing, Exxon, etc. Looking at Dow Jones Mini Futures (YM1!) we can see a new clear bull trend forming... but we also see a clear-as-day support level to be tested to help confirm this rally. Perhaps the shift out of the NASDAQ's COVID hedge plays and into DOW darlings causes a correction in all markets, perhaps bank stocks run up against resistance and need to cool down. Whatever spurs on the retest of support, so be it. The plan here is simple regardless, we are aiming to buy support and catch a ride on the post-COVID bull.
Resource: www.investors.com + www.fool.com + www.cnbc.com
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1. Fractal Trend is showing an uptrend (Aqua colored bars) on the 4-hour timeframe. This is the first notable confirmation of an uptrend on YM1! and is indicative of the recent strength in DOW holdings.
2. With this strategy, we are looking for long setups in an uptrend and as such want to enter long on retests of bullish order blocks plotted by Orderblock Mapping (Aqua colored lines) and/or bullish S/R levels plotted by Directional Bias (Aqua colored lines).
3. The goal here is to take a long position at the S1 S/R flip since that has been a major price pivot point during the COVID correction.
4. Our stop loss is placed just below S1, with the logic being that S1 will hold.
5. Our target is the R2 highs formed during a dead cat bounce back in March.
6. If S1 doesn't hold, then S2 offers another support level, although the current bullish bias on the DOW would be lost at that point.
Good luck bulls!
US30/DOW 4HOUR chart: TP bulls 24750 points(NEW)Why get subbed to to me on Tradingview?
-TOP author on TradingView
-15+ years experience in markets
-Professional chart break downs
-Supply/Demand Zones
-TD9 counts / combo review
-Key S/R levels
-No junk on my charts
-Frequent updates
-Covering FX/crypto/US stocks
-24/7 uptime so constant updates
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
. US30/DOW 4hour chart review
. bullish mid-term
. strong bullish XABCD reversal
. current bid is 23630 points
. TP1 bulls is 24250 points
. TP2 bulls is 24750 points
. strategy: short-term: BUY DIPS
. TP is +1000 points from here
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
. N/A
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals
. N/A
Today's end of session selloff triggered my sell signal for SPYI am trying a new combination of indicators on my TOS platform for swing trading. Right now it reads RED/Bearish for SPY and DIA but not yet for QQQ. It will be confirmed at the open tomorrow. I will let you know. When I back test this indicator, it seems pretty reliable. Let's track it in the next few weeks...
The above are for education and entertainment only. They must not be interpreted as investment advice nor recommendations. Trade at your own risk and mostly, trade safely and keep safe!
Sentiment on Gold is WAY TOO bullish short term The sentiment on gold and gold stocks is way too bullish for the short term. I am not a bear and I am bullish on gold mid to long term but gold has to flex lower to get the power it needs to get past $1800. If the stock market ) rolls over, which I think it will, gold will not escape the selling pressure. Then it will bottom and be ready for the sky rocket move everyone expects. Also, keep an eye on DXY. Any surge in DXY will send gold lower. Just thoughts ...
Current contrarian position with PUTS on GDX (15 May) as well as PUTS on SPY (June 19)
P.S. GDX is up 2.1% on the day... good entry point???
Disclaimer: The above is only my opinion and in no way can it be interpreted as investment advice. Trade at your own risk and do you own due diligence.
Beer time for the Bears? Please like if you find this helpful
The last two days have been a long awaited (small) victory for the bears. Could the market have topped after been rejected at the 200 EMA?
I will explain why the sell off Thursday and Friday could be the real deal
Fundamental Analysis
1. The Gild/COVID Bounce - For those who have been following my SPY ideas, I have talked about the GILD bounce (Covid therapy) on a number of occasion and how the market would react to it and my last idea titled "another Covid Optimism Bounce" showed where I expected the bounce would end.
2 While the market was selling off Friday it was announced that the Gild drug had been approved for emergency use but the market shrugged the news off and sold off anyway.
3. That was a bad sign for the markets that GILD or any positive Covid news did not affect the market in a positive way as it has in the last few weeks. (Getting a vaccine would be a different case).
4. The tariff talk, sell in may (and go on vacation (non this year due to covid) ), the end of the earning season for the major tech companies could also have caused the market to start selling off. Due in part because the US did not fully shutdown the economy until march, which meant most companies were still able to meet of beat on earnings. This could have been a part( as well as the Covid optimisms ) of the market rally we had since march.
5.The question remains, what happens to the next earnings? IMO not as good.
6. The Buffet indicator which is used by some to value the market reads with a ratio = 132.3%, Significantly Overvalued as of 05/02/2020.
7. Shiller PE Ratio: 26.50 which is about where we were in 2008.
8. The retail (Brick and mortar) bankruptcies have yet to begin and even amazon is having to invest all its profit back into the market.
9. None of this sound like we should be in a bullish market except that the fed is pumping trillions into the market.
Technical Analysis
1. The bears where looking at trendline (t1) for a break below to enter a short position but the market kept on heading higher
2. The bulls claimed t2 should be the trendline used but has now been broken after reaching the 200ema.
3. The question now, are we going to consolidate side ways before the next move up? In my opinion if we continue to consolidate sideways we could start to move higher but if we gap down below T3 on Monday the bears are in control
4. I have placed many support and resistance lines in the chart to look for. When we go below a support line, it now turns into a resistance and VSV.
5. Volume had been slowing for a while now, (which isn't that bad in of it self) but I noticed in the last 3 days (and two sell off days) volume is starting to pick up again. This is part of the ABC reversal where volume increases in Wave A, declines on wave B and increases again on Wave C as selling picks up.
6. Looking at the RSI we are heading towards a support level which acted as a resistance on our way up, then acted as a support recently. if we break it to the down side then all options are open.
7. lastly On a weekly chart, we have a shooting star which seem to appear at the end of an uptrend.
Last but not least the fed is pumping a shipload of money into the market but in my opinion, the big boys are selling as the market kept going higher (its the way they get their own stimulus check) and we can see that when looking at the macd for the week and monthly. Especially in the month of April which was all green on the daily is light red on weekly and increasing red on monthly.
Even Buffet increased his cash balance with about 9.2 billion from last year to a now total of 137 billion. If he isn't buying then why should I buy or any retailer?
I leave with this question someone asked: if you had been asleep for the last three months and after you woke up where told of the global shutdown and COVID Cases. You are then asked to predict how many points you would expect the market would be down?
In my opinion, I would only be comfortable to enter the market at whatever answer I give.
Please do your due diligence and invest wisely.