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Current global markets situation and everything you need to knowTo gain an edge, this is what you need to know now. 1) Yields on 10 and 30-year Treasury bonds stayed way above their lows as the stock market fell to new lows. This is a big positive. 2)Oil held way above its Sunday lows. This is a big positive. 3) The Fed is providing unprecedented liquidity of as much as $1.5 trillion. The stock market first rallied 6% on the news and then gave it all back. This indicates that the Fed is not going to be able to save this market. However, Fed's move will stop several potential dislocations in the financial markets and that is a positive. 4) This afternoon near the lows, smart money was lightly and selectively buying. 5) Big part of the selling was due to margin calls. This is a positive because margin calls eventually exhaust themselves. Gold Central bank selling in gold continues. Here are the key points. - Central bank selling in gold, perhaps from Russia, appears to have continued. - There are rumors that Italy is selling gold to pay for coronavirus expenses. - When the stock market was halted, gold market was still trading. Over extended investors desperate to raise money sold gold to pay for margin calls in the stock market. - Now that the momentum in gold has reversed, the momo crowd is aggressively selling gold. - As gold miner stocks have pulled back on selling in gold, there is a bloodbath in ETFs GDX and NUGT on margin calls. Smart money continues to buy gold and gold miner stocks on dips. Complacency My proprietary indicators are showing that there is still too much complacency among investors. Many investors continue to believe that the market always goes up after brief dips. Such investors are not selling. "Buy the dip crowd is still alive and well." Until these two groups of investors start selling, there is only a low probability of a lasting bottom unless there is a good news on coronavirus.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by sickgains
1
SPX Support Levels (Nearing buy levels)SPX has been hit hard lately but I think we are now closer to support levels that should be watched closely. I have a few stocks with market cap slashed in half and/or are more than 50% down that I am watching. As I mentioned in my last $AAPL idea, this downturn will move fast now before the fed rate cut and any stimulus package. I believe that we hold the 200MA (second support in the chart) if not then we have a long way down to Dec 2018 lows. I know the expert will blame corona virus but digging deeper, the market was overly overvalued and needed to sell off with or without the corona virus. Now, the corona virus could lead us into a recession in which case whatever extended bounce we get with the stimulus package and rate cut will be temporary.
SP:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn3272672
Stock Market Analysis - 3/2/2020After Friday's gap down, reversal, and strong buying into the close, today we had the first followthrough day. A short term bottom looks confirmed as all indexes rallied higher into the close on strong volume. The picture on SPY is looking very bullish into the close. We held the Anchored VWAP from the December 2018 lows (Magenta Line) which has been acting as a key level of support during this entire bull run. SPY is currently sitting above the rising 200DMA meaning we are still within a bull market. The 20DMA and 50DMA seems to have flatlined therefore the intermediate trend is neutral and caution must be taken for a possible change in the longer term trend. The 30m timeframe is looking even more productive. Throughout the day, SPY had been struggling to breakthrough the 305.25 level where three lines of resistance (200DMA, 5DMA, and Anchored VWAP from start of selloff) were intersecting. In the last 30m candlestick, we blew through this level on strong volume and closed HOD. I would be careful buying into this bounce tomorrow however. The right time to buy was Friday or this morning and if markets gap up tomorrow, this scenario seems overextended. Volatility is currently at extremes therefore large swings, up or down, can occur at anytime. In the future I would want to see price retest the 305-306 area and then run higher with a V-shaped recovery to highs. If we start to chop sideways, I would expect more downside to be possible.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Trader_Kaji
S&P 500 Next Week Expected Move ($44.5) | Broadening Top Short Call - Took an initial short position in several stocks at the end of day Friday. Looking to add more exposure throughout the next several weeks. I don't expect a crash or a recession or anything until late 2021, just a swift and moderate correction at some point in the near future. Larger move than we've had in many weeks - you can see this by the orange bars enveloping the prior two weeks orange bars. It's been an exercise in patience these last few months. Finally think the time is ripe for a reversal. Fear-Greed hit 98 on Thursday, the highest I've ever recorded. Put-Call is extremely low. Bulkowski CPI went bearish as of today. Window Dressing and Santa Claus rally have concluded. AAII survey elevated and complacent. Ned Davis sentiment is extremely elevated. We are in the 3rd standard deviation of the trend , which is where a contrarian investor like myself finds the opportunity. Dow Transports (IYT) is struggling and severely underperforming. VIX is no longer declining, I believe volatility should increase which is further supported by the expected moves. Breadth is declining, signaled by Percent of stocks above 20,50,100 day moving averages Looks like we have a broadening top formation . I have, in purple , marked the initial target for both outcomes. Broadening Tops have poor reliability, so my ABCDE count might be flipped due to my bearish bias. I've shown how both outcomes should look. Last Weeks Expected Move: (Excellent week in my opinion) First Five Days: seekingalpha.com January Barometer: www.yardeni.com 3rd Standard Deviation of Trend: SKEW: Breadth Declining: VIX: Bonds TLT Perking Up: Transports: Initial Claims: - I recently lost my Investment Analyst job for what it's worth. PMI: (Disappointing reading but expecting it to pick up) Goodluck out there next week, please do your own due diligence and don't blindly follow me or anyone's investment suggestions. Everyone is different. Best to all you traders and wishing you a tremendous 2020. - RH
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RHTrading
4