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DIA

DIA IndecisionIndecision in the Market right now. Bear Case: *Multiple failed attempt to break resistance *Head and Shoulder formation *Broken wedge up *Lack luster volume *Bearish divergence on RSI ***Motivation for break lower : recession fears Bull Case: * 50 MA broke back above 200 MA * Price holding above those two MAs * Symmetrical Triangle engulfing the H&S (Larger pattern usually plays out) * Possibly a bull flag forming (look at it in the weekly) ***Motivation for break higher : Trade deal ****Personally, I think we break lower... Let's talk about it!
AMEX:DIAShort
by PartTimeGenius
2
SPY Next Week Expected Moves ($52) + Gravity PointsLast week's call had me nervous for a second there. A very chaotic week, but I had several opportunities to put on a couple positions. Hats off to anyone who waited for that upper expected move. (two opportunities) Large expansion for the expected move from last week to this week = expect volatility to pick up. Couple quick notes: - 10 yr / 3 mo yield inverted. You now are paid more to buy a 3 month bond than a 10 year bond. Fundamentally this makes no sense because you should be compensated for the additional risk of loaning your money for longer periods of time. Ill share some of my excel doc data of different yield curve pair inversions for the 10/3because it's so important: ---> 10 yr / 3 mo yield inversion time prior to next Recession: Average = 13 Months ---> S&P 500 Peak to start of recession percentage gain/loss: Average = -13.3% Median = -13.5% (Most losses happen prior to official recession) ---> S&P 500 percentage gain/loss during Recession: Average = -1.3% Median = 6.7% ---> Number of Months from Peak to Recession: Average = 8.7 months Median = 8.5 months ---> Number of Months in Recession: Average = 13.5 months Median = 10.7 months ---> Recession Start to S&P 500 Trough: Average = 8 months Median = 5.3 months - Powell signaled to the market that the economy is weak - Germany slowdown bad Friday morning manufacturing report - China slowdown - Brexit delated but nowhere near resolved Best of luck next week gentlemen - RH P.S. Wish me luck on my Series 7 exam on Friday next week!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RHTrading
Small Cap Stocks with Bearish daily and weekly chartsThe Russell 2000 ETF continues to deliver critical technical and longer-term price patterns for skilled technicians. Combining the IWM chart with the Transportation Index, Oil, Gold, and others provide a very clear picture of what to expect in the immediate future. Recently, we posted a research article about the Head-n-Shoulders pattern setting up in the $INDU. Again, the IWM chart is also showing a very clear Head-n-Shoulders pattern with critical resistance near $159.50 and support near $144.25. Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe this right Shoulder will prompt a downside market move towards support near $144.25 before a downward sloping wedge pattern sets up. This first downward price leg will setup and congesting wedge formation that will, eventually, break to the upside and drive market prices higher. We authored a research article about this pattern setup on February 17, 2019. You can read it here. Skilled traders watch all the charts to assist them in identifying characteristics that can assist them in understanding price moves, key support/resistance levels, and price patterns. This IWM chart should be on everyone’s radar at the moment. Where the IWM finds support, so will the other US stock market indexes. The IWM setup indicates we may only see a 5~7% downside price swing before support is found. We’ll have to watch how this plays out over the next few weeks/months to determine if the $144.25 level is true support or if the lower $137.00 level will become support. Either way, the downside price swing appears poised to unfold over the next few days/weeks – so be prepared. Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades in 2019. We have already positioned our clients for this move and we believe we can help you stay ahead of these markets.
AMEX:IWMShort
by TheTechnicalTraders
SP500 Should Stall out here for a quick correction OnlyThe big question is if the index can break and hold above this key pivot level. I feel it may test it more with pops and drops but a quick 3-5 day correction to shake traders out will unfold before the next real rally. Volume has been declining which means fewer traders/investors are willing to pay these higher prices. Once the momentum slows enough we should get this pullback and set us up for another long position. The concept of “failure to fail” or “failure to succeed” continues to baffle many traders, investors, and researchers. If you break it down into the simplest terms, it means “you are absolutely correct” or “you are dead wrong”. The question then becomes, “do you have a plan of action for both of these potential outcomes?”. Keep this in mind as I continue posting future charts and I do talk more about it on my blog . AMEX:SPY DIA IWM QQQ
AMEX:SPYShort
by TheTechnicalTraders
The Most Important Stock in U.S. Equity Markets - BoeingThe market's are being influenced by a single stock. How? Well there are linkages and arbitrage opportunities between the big Indices --> SPY, DIA, QQQ What does this mean? This means that if you can make the Dow go up, you can make the S&P go up. If you can make the S&P go up, you can make the Q's go up and vice versa. Can you give me an example? Sure, the fact that there are high frequency shops that capitalize on this is enough for me, but I'll do better; How about the fact that you never see a day where the S&P is up 1% and the QQQ or Dow is down 1%? Next: Structure of how the Dow is priced. It's different than the S&P and QQQ, these are both market-cap weighted. DIA is Price weighted. Boeing is a monstrosity inside of the Dow. It's a $425 stock. The next biggest is UNH @$267, MMM @$209, GS @$196 It's all about Boeing. Why Boeing? (I have to give credit to DataTrek for coming up with this research and all of the tremendous data they come out with:) - Boeing is up 31% YTD and 45% from it's lows. It's low in December was 58 days ago. 45% in 58 Days - Boeing is 11% of the Dow - Boeing is 2.4x more influential than AAPL and 3.9x that of MSFT, AMZN and GOOG aren't even close > Point: Move Boeing and you can move the entire marketplace - Boeing's 10.9% weight has contributed 776 points to the Dow in 2019 - That contribution is more than the next 4 names combined - GS (225 points), IBM (177 points), UTX (157 points), HD (133 points) = 692 points - These 5 names are responsible for 56% of the Dow's gains YTD. > Point: Boeing is directly responsible for 30% of the Dow's gains YTD. > Bigger Point: BA is the most influential stock in the marketplace. If you can move the Dow you can move the S&P's. SPY is up 8% YTD. It's up 19.11% from it's low on Dec 24th @ $234.34 + $44.8 (in 58 days) Why does this concern me? Well there's net outflows in the SPY YTD. I think smart money is potentially selling into this move and covering it up by driving order flow into one stock. ETF Fund Flows; www.etf.com My max upside on Boeing is $454. Have a wonderful weekend everyone and best of luck to ya next week gentlemen - RH
NYSE:BA
by RHTrading
7