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S&P Expected Move ($65) + Gravity Points -Next Week Trading PlanIt's getting dicey out here. Huge moves in the market this last week. Last week $90 expected Move. We moved all of that and then some. Next week only a $65 expected move. We saw that kind of action in the S&P's on Friday. All of next week, we're supposed to move $65, but we did that on Friday. I anticipate the price action will move OUTSIDE of the expected move. Here's a more "Busy" chart on the 15 minute for active traders: Good luck next week gentlemen, - RH __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Some other work I've done recently: Redid my trendlines for the 100th time. The two multi-trendlines and one final trendline from the (2009 Low - 2016 Low) & the (2009 Low - 2nd 2016 Low), (2009 Low - 2018 Low); This is a big deal. https Recognize that if this breaks, it will be resistance on the way up.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RHTrading
Prepare for a rough landing!The major indices have faltered several times this year, but this most recent slump seems to be the beginning of something more severe. First, the basics. The white trend line, which goes back over a year, had held as support during previous downturns this year, but not this time. In fact, it's now became resistance. Also influencing sellers is the 200dsma at 2765, reinforced by the 50% retracement of this recent decline at 2772. More importantly, the 50dsma is aligned with the 61.8% retracement of the same move, so that's an extra layer of resistance at 2812-2820. We also put in a minor double top, but it's not strong enough to pose a threat to a bullish advance (if that happens). Speaking of bullish, I see two things that are bullish to a degree... first, the MACD has signaled to buy (yellow circle). Second, we have a bullish divergence in the R.S.I. (yellow trend line). However, I can't help but notice that volume is accelerating on the down days, and we're slicing thru supports like they don't exist, so it makes me more cautious than usual. In fact, I think we're headed back to the lows set earlier this year at 2533, and I even think there's a good chance we extend on down to the 127.2% extension at 2422 (which coincides with major support at 2404). In short, I'm raising cash, taking profits, hedging with puts and selling covered calls against my core holdings. This could get nasty pretty quick, so consider yourself warned!
SP:SPXShort
by EchoAlphaBravo
1
Here's how we do it in the pros...On my nonprofit Facebook page , I scheduled a post suggesting your first move of the upcoming week was to buy protection (it was supposed to post on the 1st, but fat fingers screwed it up and it did it the 2nd instead). Looking back, I don't think I can call it much better than this! And no, not a lucky guess... I have plenty of charts on my page to back up my astuteness with this stuff. You should follow me if you like making money, or being right... or both. :) After plunging in to correction territory, we've bounced back higher but remain under stiff resistance. So, I guess you're wondering... What's the market going to do next? After I get through this victory lap, sign a few sponsorships, and cash all those checks, I'll post another chart for what's next! Stay tuned!
SP:SPX
by EchoAlphaBravo
1
S&P: Next Week's Expected Move: $90 (Huge)The Options Market's depiction of non-directional volatility next week. Increase from $66 last week to $90 this coming week. I enjoy this week-by-week update, now on Week #3. I think I'll likely continue this series. Hope you all enjoy it as well. Last week's game plan worked well, pinging from value area to value area. One Gravity Point to the next. For what it's worth, Gravity Points are absolutely in play right now. I do a huge amount of regression analysis in order to decipher these Gravity Points. They're all for the purpose of determining efficiency in the marketplace. They're determined by looking at order flow in the market. These levels are major trading firms, and where they have a large amount of concentric risk. *Gravity Points are used in concert with the Expected Move for the week. There is more downside in this market. Volatility is laughing in our face, not even getting into a 3-handle. A $24 VIX is only barely 1 standard deviation outside of its historical norm. 30-35 is that 2 standard deviation move that we need to see. Implied Volatility IV for SPX options are only at roughly 26%; we need to see IV in the 32-37% range for an oversold contrarian rally. The S&P is laughing in your face saying you haven't seen nothing yet. KEEP YOUR HELMET ON. The markets are still too efficient. If the market's are so "Unprecedented" in terms of volatility, so "Horrific" right now, then how can a monkey like me pick out, within 1 point, the level a twenty six hundred dollar product was going to bounce from? By the way I didn't pick these levels out yesterday, or last week. I picked them out months ago, back in Mid-March. The options market Expected Move was breached the previous week. We had a $66 expected move and we went over that. It's the 5th week this year that the options market got it wrong. The technicals are running the show and will be our only roadmap in navigating these choppy waters. Good Luck Next Week Gentlemen, -RH
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RHTrading
4
SPX Breaks Major Trend SupportThe S&P500 (SPX) has broken some important supports lately. I'm using SPY as a proxy. The first chart, on the left, is a monthly going back to the lows of the recession at 666. The second chart, on the right, is a daily to show the trend line up close, as well as to show that SPY has lost its 200 day s.m.a., too. This suggests a longer-term decline of a meaningful magnitude is increasingly likely. I'm short this market via Dec. 21 $258 puts, which I've continuously added over the past few sessions of strength. I want to give it time to play out, thus the December contract selection. It's already in the green by about 16%, and based on today's close below the aforementioned trend, I think we have more selling in store over the next few days and weeks. Short in to strength!
AMEX:SPYShort
by EchoAlphaBravo
SPX Testing 50EMAS&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) testing the 50 day exponential moving average, let's see if this is yet another buy on the dip, prolonging the bullishness, or the beginning of a rollover. NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:IWM have already taken deeper hits and may be a warning sign of what's to come for the broader market, but AMEX:DIA seems to be holding up. Overall this is to be expected as the higher growth small caps and tech-heavy Nasdaq tend to lead the way both up and down, while Dow holds a more defensive position when rotation happens and S&P is somewhere in between.
SP:SPX
by cch31