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SPY - Are You Prepared If We Haven't Bottomed?When I made my July 29 call on the ES SPX Futures here: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg We had anticipated that a retrace to the highs or a raid on the highs was on deck. And yet throughout August, price action has been extremely bearish across all commodities, indexes, equities, and bonds. We very suddenly went from talk of a new bull market to a dip that doesn't rip. In my August 5 call on QQQ, I note that the January of '22 fail pivots, which ended the bull market, that were taken out on all three indexes have not been raided on the ETFs. Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip? And although today's August 18 options expiry price action took out a key low, the bounce we got was also lethargic. On the 25th, the Federal Reserve will hold the press conference for the Jackson Hole event, which will not involve a rate hike, but a forward-looking statement of economic policy by Jerome Powell. Last year, this day hallmarked the nuke of the markets. This year, it may very well do the same when the bond market has to accept that 6% Fed Funds Rates are on deck before '24 and 6.5% may be on deck before Q2. The other bearish catalyst is the rapidly degenerating economic condition in Mainland China, which is still ruled by the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping has yet to throw away. I've heard that Evergrande is defaulting and that's put something like 1/3rd of a trillion dollars of commercial real state into the fire. The Yuan isn't in good shape. The whole country is in terrible shape because of the effects of the pandemic. The losses are a lot worse than what you see reported by the CCP to John Hopkins and presented on places like Our World In Data. This is really the key cornerstone of everything going on in the world right now. I have been warning about this ad nauseum in everything I post, and I think people will begin to understand what I have meant, and why I have said it, as changes in this world unfold in the next six months. China is a key market for Apple, and Apple is something of a pillar of the U.S. equities market, and yet, after the big earnings correction, it seems as if $198 was the ultimate top. Apple - So, You've Been Taught To Buy That Dip... And Tesla. with its Shanghai Gigafactory in Babylon and its reliance on the Chinese market, has just been an absolute disaster. Tesla - What To Expect Until September? Traders are often slow to react. "The trend is your friend, until the end," they say, and correctly. When we look at SPY on the monthly, we see that it's taken a monthly low for the first time since February. And when we look at it on the weekly, we get even greater clarity. And although sub 4,400 really ought to have been a place that it bounces to retrace and retest the tops at 4,650, the fact is that price action is not showing a willingness to bounce and take out upside targets. So far, what it has told us is that longers are trapped. And if longers remain trapped even after we take out the July low, it's safe to posit that the next target to the downside would be the June low at ~$416. "$416 what a fairy tale!" is what a lot of people say, and yet this is only 5% away from where we are now. Only 200 more points down before there's a chance of a possible reversal. In other words, these targets are not that far away. If they really are traded to, it becomes increasingly unlikely that there's going to be any kind of a retrace to the top, considering JP Morgan is some 15,800 contracts long on 4,225 SPX puts expiring Sept. 29 that have never been in the money. And so I want to say to everyone that the sooner you can flip your bias from bull to bear, perhaps the better. It may not be until Q4 that we see a bounce with how things are unfolding.
AMEX:SPYShort
by LordWrymouth
1
$DJI & $NDX very important levels (TSLA trade = fire)The TVC:DJI trade we did ( NASDAQ:TSLA was great) was nice. In & out. AMEX:UDOW gave back all gains TVC:NDQ holding better, NASDAQ:TQQQ bit higher (risk reward was good but not for holding longer term) Point is, NOT RISKING, not convinced downside's over. AMEX:DIA almost oversold & very close to a VERY IMPORTANT AREA. Will revisit risk soon, once there. This is also an important area for $QQQ. ATM both weaker, could be mid day reversal. We'll see.
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
IWM - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Rising trend breaking downwards in medium long term. 🔹Between support 170 and resistance 199 in Rectangle Formation. 🔹Broken through support at 188, indicating a falling direction and predicting further decline. 🔹RSI curve indicates a potential early indication of a falling trend in the price. 🔹Technically NEGATIVE for the medium long term. Chart Pattern: 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
AMEX:IWM
by wavepoint99
SPY - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Rising trend breaking downwards in medium long term 🔹Support at 430 dollars, indicating a potential positive reaction as it rises to 477 or more. 🔹Technically positive for the medium long term. Chart Pattern: 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
AMEX:SPYLong
by wavepoint99
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering IcebergLast week's SPX call was pretty accurate in terms of levels. What was wrong was only the order of operations and timing. ES SPX Futures - Welcome to FOMCmageddon I had felt it made sense for the market maker to sweep out the lows before taking the highs, but the plan was the opposite, and this actually adds credence to the theory that the markets are topping. Something to keep in mind about calls for new all time highs, that we're hearing everywhere now, is that equities generally don't moon in high interest rate environments, and every central bank that matters in the world except for Japan is playing with 3-5%. And nobody is cutting. Warren Buffet said to "be fearful when others are greedy" and it's really a piece of wisdom you ought to take to heart, right now. Something I would like to tell you is that tops and bottoms are, 100% of the time, hindsight calls. There is no way to actually accurately predict a top and a bottom before it unfolds. What you can do as a trader, however, is anticipate that certain levels are the target, and look to see if price action and other covariances and fundamental factors confirm the theory if price trades to that level. Then, using risk management and some rational logic, one can take the position, and shift their bias. If you can read the map and execute, you'll make a lot of money. Otherwise, you can only make money if you're lucky, and few are particularly lucky, since we're all just mortals. There's some problems with the "more uppy for more longer" theory. A core factor is that the beginning of July marked a quarterly shift, and the entire month has been even more up. There are now only August and September remaining. If it's not SPX 5,500 coming this year, the reversal is probably going to be violent, it stands to reason. Another really crucial core factor is the geopolitical situation between the International Rules Based Order, which Washington ostensibly heads, and the Chinese government under Xi Jinping. A really noticeable characteristic of all the clamoring in the propaganda machine is that they never go after "The Chinese Communist Party," they always go after "China" and Xi. You should always remember this adage: "China is not the CCP." You should always remember that when someone is attacking the world's only 5,000 year old culture and nation, the world's largest and most rich in natural resources and talent, they're likely to be Fabians. Although Xi is, and has been for a decade, the leader of the CCP, the most notable thing about him is that he has never persecuted Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners, who have been subjected to organ harvesting genocide under the edict of former Chairman Jiang Zemin starting July 20, 1999. In fact, Xi has actually protected Falun Gong in Hong Kong, hitting thugs who target the practice's spiritual cultivators with the Anti-corruption Campaign, after the National Security Law and John Lee were installed as Chief Executive. It's notable that John Lee has been denied entry to San Francisco for the APEC economic summit in November by Joe Biden, on that account. All of this is to say the geopolitical chatter you hear on "China" is a disaster waiting to happen with "Taiwan." Speaking of Taiwan, I really believe that TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation) is a significantly potent long to hedge with if the U.S. equities market goes sideways: ]TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge But "Taiwan War" does not mean that Xi is going to invade. The CCP is heavily weakened from the pandemic and in no position to be attacking an island that will become the Ukraine proxy war, but on a whole other level. If Xi were really an idiot, the IRBO and the Jiang Faction would have been able to kill him years ago. Instead, the CCP is about to fall, and what the IRBO is looking to do is depose Xi and replace him with a submissive and groomed toady from Taiwan, Maidan Revolution style (see Oliver Stone's film Ukraine on Fire). If Xi is smart, he will weaponize the persecution of Falun Gong to defend China and himself, because Wall Street and the world government have been continuously going to Shanghai to train Marxism with the Jiangling toads, which means bloodying their hands in the persecution as "insurance." Google the Neil Heywood story and give it some sober thought. Back to price action and trading on the most important index right now: other risks are that both the Nasdaq and the Dow also took out the same pivot, and reacted in identical ways: Another is that the VIX, which is already anomalously low, but won't print a single digit handle, has printed higher lows, followed by a breakout and retracement: While 10-Year Treasury bonds, important because they represent the "Risk Free Rate," meaning huge, long term money can park cash here instead of taking risk in equities, look like a nightmare. (Rates up = bonds down) It looks like a nightmare because Jerome Powell again said during the Q&A portion of the FOMC press conference that the inflation target is 2% while it's still 3.8% (What's 90% among friends?), that rate cuts aren't coming, and further pausing is totally contingent on economic data being spectacular in favour of deflation. (Is not happening). And all of the above is confirmed by the US Dollar Index's higher time frame candles showing the dump under 100.00 was really just a raid, and we're about to get our upside to 108+ on. So, here's what I expect to happen as soon as Monday: I believe, based on the price action that unfolded Thursday and Friday of this week, that the market makers will take advantage of Monday, July 31 to print the high of the month, breaking the 4,630 level to roughly 4,650. This will kill all the short traders who entered early and shorted Friday, and bring in a great number of breakout traders. I am anticipating (the key word is anticipating!) this will be a major bull trap and price will reverse. The confirmation will be if price does retrace and takes the 4,544 level. If so, this is no longer a dip to buy, and entering shorts on retrace will be difficult because the market makers are likely to reprice aggressively away from their trap at the top. It may seem like a dump to 4,544 compared to 4,557 isn't very significant, being 13 points after all, forming just another "higher highs lower lows" expansion pattern. But what taking 4,544 shows, in reality, is that the biggest money now wants to take sell stops and begin to capitalize on "The Big Short." The first target for August, if this pans out, will be the 4,411.25 level. It looks really far away on the chart, but it's only 200 points. Only 5 percent. Compared to last year's volatility and ranges, it's not really that big of a deal, especially for a while month. You've just been Pavloved to follow the ring of a bell. Moreover, the 4,411 level is also July's low. A factor that I believe may lead to the destruction of the markets is latent malignancy in the banking sector, with Charles Schwab being the standout problem, I chronicle below: Charles Schwab - The Harbinger Of The Next Crisis? A lot of people are going to kill themselves buying the dip and getting stopped out and buying the dip again and getting stopped out again, if this all transpires according to the thesis. And people who don't use stops are going to get gapped down on. And those gap downs will be runaways that don't come back this time. Equities bulls are going to get gapped on like every day and have Barstool Sports Dave Portnoy '22-style meltdowns. However, if all of this does not transpire and price continues to reach over 4,700, then we can only say that the target the market makers really aspire for is ALL the liquidity over the 2021 all time highs circa 4,800. What we have is dueling possibilities, one far more likely than the other: topping being a lot more likely than a new all time high because the the environment is one where the Fed Funds Rate is going to be 6%+ by year end. But we need price action to confirm the theory. All of the above is my gift to you, as readers, followers, and even trolls. Our human race and this Planet Earth may really be in for an "early autumn" this year. The implications will shock not only the equities markets, but every aspect of our daily lives. I wish you all a bright future, but you have to believe and execute before you can see and harvest fruit. It's up to the individual to cultivate their hearts and minds accordingly.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LordWrymouth
9
QQQ - Is It Rally Time? Or Are You Too Early?I have an open call on the Nasdaq NQ CME Futures that theorizes that the markets may have topped in terms of the perpetual bull run, but that we may also get a rip back towards/at new highs. Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip? The process has been quite slow to play out so far, but the most dangerous thing for bulls with NQ is that 15,000 has not yet been broken. And yet we are rallying. Many people have been pining for new all time highs, and yet every equity has slowed down or been significantly bearish in the last two weeks. It's worth noting key macro points: 1. Fed rates are looking at tasting 6% by the end of the year 2. Jerome Powell says cuts aren't even considered until inflation becomes half of what it is 3. Dude said it will probably take years for this 4. Bond price goes down as yield goes up 5. Money leaves equities to seek yield in this environment 6. Divergences from the above are short signals, not buy for all time high signals And then there is the ever-accelerating collapse of the economy in Mainland China under the Communist Party. Things for the CCP, and for its leader Xi Jinping, are getting worse by the day. On top of economic problems the Party is facing are a litany of social problems, and the recent bout of exceptional and unprecedented flooding ravaging the country. The losses from the pandemic, from the economic calamity, and the natural disasters have weakened the Party significantly. A weak CCP can never invade Taiwan, and international spy agencies will all know this, and so whenever you're hearing "Taiwan War" you should immediately be suspect. What if the idea is to take control of Mainland China via Taiwan as the CCP falls, instead? What will happen to the international markets that day? Will they go up, or will they crash? So, here's a look at QQQ, the Nasdaq ETF that you can trade 0-Day options on. From the looks of today's price action it would seem as if the bottom was in. And it may very well be. This is a really key point. Friday may really well have been the bottom and we may be looking at a reversal. But there's some key points to consider for bulls. One is that in the Nasdaq call, I point out that NQ raided its January of 2022 failure pivot before the correction. QQQ has not done that yet, and this leads us to believe that $390 is a very likely target in the immediate future. Remember that upside should happen fast, since JP Morgan is bigly long SPX 4,200 puts that expire on September 29, and has been underwater since the quarter rolled over at the end of July. SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' However, it's also very strange if we're going to see a bounce as massive as $390, that the end of July failure swing didn't result in at least one downside stop being taken out. Note that today, Monday, was a day with no news drivers, while there is retail sales and Empire Manufacturing Index Tuesday, FOMC minutes Wednesday, Unemployment Claims on Thursday, and no news driver on Friday, which is also monthly options expiry. The critical Jackson Hole Federal Reserve meeting is also August 23 and 24, next week. Last year, Jackson Hole is what started a major correction that lasted until October. So what to expect? Instead of a reversal in fortune being so easy, I would imagine we see a raid of QQQ $360/Nasdaq 14,900 this week before we bounce. After that, it will be long only until QQQ $385, is my trade thesis. But keep in mind $390 does not have to be taken. $385 is a potential area of reversal and $391 is an area that only has to print one contract before there's a correction. So, thanks for reading. The TL;DR is this Buy a raid under $360-355. Probably just under $360. Long only until $385. Get "Big Short" over $390 or on a reversal pattern between $385 and $388. Good luck.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by LordWrymouth
1
Stocks still struggling - $SPX copying late 2021?The risk in #stocks is still not to the upside. Took a trade before this rally, but that's it, a trade, already done too. Lower low today, still expect to be positive for the day, but until we get some sort of reversal, the risk is still to downside. TVC:DJI AMEX:UDOW NASDAQ:NDX is trying to find a bottom but here's not best place. Very light support. CBOE:SPX looks weakest of the 3. We could very well be doing what happened in late 2021. One last hurrah & then kaput.
SP:SPX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Opening (Margin): DIA Aug 18th 348/Sept 15th 351/2 x 359... Covered Zebra. Comments: A variation on one of the bearish assumption setups I described over the weekend. (See Post Below). Here, the September 15th 351/2 x 359 is the Zebra aspect, which functions as synthetic short stock. This is, in turn, "covered" by an additional short put so the entire setup has the delta metrics of a covered put (short stock, plus a short put). Put on for an 11.10 debit, I'll look to take profit starting for around 10% of what I put in on for.
AMEX:DIAShort
by NaughtyPines
3
DIA - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Achieved target at 351 after breaking Rectangle formation. 🔹Supports 342 in NEGATIVE reaction. 🔹RSI curve shows rising trend, supporting positive trend. 🔹Technically POSITIVE for medium long term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
AMEX:DIALong
by wavepoint99
NDX - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Index shows NEGATIVE signal from double top formation, broke support at 15426. 🔹Signals further decline to 15057 or lower. 🔹Supports 13600 and resistance at 15800 🔹Technically NEUTRAL for medium long-term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
NASDAQ:NDX
by wavepoint99
$DJI $NDX $SPX $RUT closesHow #indices closed last week. TVC:DJI After a BEARISH ENGULFING it then closed Friday with a doji = battle for the bulls and bears which is unresolved NASDAQ:NDX Fighting back but it is still showing Negative RSI Divergence. SP:SPX Suffering from Negative Divergence. We''ll how #SPX trades over the next few days, weeks. AMEX:RSP (Equal weight) was weaker. This means that the usual big boys pulled more weight. TVC:RUT needs big move soon, lower highs. Lots of earnings this week! Have a great trading week!
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
ES SPX Futures - Welcome to FOMCmageddonIn reading the title of this post, I'm sure you can tell what I want to say. Since the new habit is to guffaw and lmao at any thesis that isn't bullish, because "we" all "know" US equities "always go up" and a new all time high is "in store," I'd like to point out the Nasdaq already shows signs of having topped. That July 20, 2023 candle was some 2%+ in range and on absolutely no news. And yet the SPX has not yet taken its equivalent intermediate term high. The significance of the intermediate term highs that the Nasdaq took and the SPX is probably about to take is that they represent the March of 2022 failure swing. Why does it matter? Because that swing and its destruction was the trumpet-backed announcement that the Coronavirus Disease 2019 stimmie QE bull run had come to an end. And so coming back to raid it at a time when Big Jerome Powell openly told reporters at the last FOMC meeting that no rate cuts were scheduled AND that inflation would take years, not months, to come back to levels they regard as apropos, is a very dangerous situation. The thing about tops and bottoms is that whoever calls them is always wrong, because you can only see a top or a bottom on hindsight. In the interim, as they unfold, you can only anticipate that at a certain key price level, over a certain high or a certain low, that reversal patterns might manifest. The geopolitical situation is very sharp. I note in a new call that oil is likely headed for a literal 3 handle this year. Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins And I note that the US Dollar Index is due for a rally to at least 108. DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia The cornerstone of the international chessboard is now, and always has been, Mainland China and its 5,000 year old country and culture, which has been ruined by the Chinese Communist Party over the course of its century of insanity. What's going on in the equities market is heavily wedded to the "War With Taiwan" narrative being espoused by the propaganda machine, which I discuss in my call on Taiwan Semiconductor TSM, a company that I believe is a significant long hedge during a potential upcoming downtrend. TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge So as for this week's call, I would like to note that, unlike the Nasdaq, the SPX has not raided its March '22 intermediate high. This high at 4,631 happens to coincide with the new "JP Morgan Chase Collar," where one of the SIB's big funds sold calls at 4,665. I discuss this collar below: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' Something to understand about the big banks' business model is this: The first thing is that when they sell calls at a certain level, there is a buyer, and that buyer might be their clients. Their clients may have paid the bank the standard 10% fee in exchange for providing the liquidity. The reason the client would buy calls that JPM sells at a 10% premium is because they understand that the market will be made, in exchange, for those calls to be made worth more than they paid. Those calls were purchased at the end of June when the indexes traded circa 4,400. Why would JPM sell the calls and get themselves underwater? Because by September 29, Q3 end, they won't be underwater anymore, for one. For two, they're hedged long and are making money on the way up on the hedge. So they get to make money on the hedge, the calls ultimately expire worthless, and the client is happy because they got a big bag of cheap options at 4,400 to dump on the head of retail and Cathie Wood-style funds at 4,660. And all of this is to say that the 4,631 failure swing/pivot is very likely to be raided, and it is likely to be raided on Wednesday, FOMC day. During Monday's trade session, we will find out a lot about the intentions of the MMs. I believe they will only raid the 4,544 level on Monday market open, making it a buying opportunity to sell 100 points higher. However, if ES/SPX is to dump significantly to under 4,500 again, it stands to reason that the real target is the 4,800 ATH somewhere early in August. But I think, for a lot of reasons, this is just so less likely. Thus, SPX is likely to raid 4,544, which is to say the 4,550 psychological level, and trade over the 4,650 psychological level before Jerome Powell starts yapping. This FOMC is really significant because there isn't another rate hike until September, the end of Q3. So the trade is to long 4,540, sell it allllll at 4,650, and the target is under where JPM went long on puts and has been under water all month under 4,200 heading into the end of August and middle of September.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LordWrymouth
Is QQQ ready to continue after a minor pullback?On the 4H chart, QQQ has been in a trend up for the entirety of this year reaching 42% YTD. Of late, QQQ has had a 2-3 day pullback correcting a decent uptrend over the prior week. On the Relative Trend Index, while the signal is below the mean line, there is all the more upside and the overall trend is positive. The dual time frame RSI shows weekly RS high and steady over 80 while the lower time frame of 3H as the blue line fluctuating between support at the 50 level and 80 and presently a 50 in the pullbck. I analyse QQQ as ready to continue its overall trend up. I will take out additional call options for a strike of $385 to expire on August 18. Over the past day this option gained 33% and had a bid/ask spread of about 1%. I will set a stop-loss of 10% while anticipating a profit of 150%. Once hitting the anticipated profit before the expiration date I will take one-half of the contracts off the table and close the rest 1-2 days before expiration.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by AwesomeAvani
SPY - A Dip Is Coming. Maybe Buy It?The question at the top of everyone's minds right now is: have the markets topped? It's the kind of question that allows for a great deal of manipulation as sentiment, emotions, and the P&L column are manipulated violently. Since the markets were wildly bullish last quarter, inside of an overall market that is not bullish, and economic fundamentals that are pretty bad, your guard should certainly be up when you see a new quarter begin and price continue to run rampant. I discuss the parameters of a new quarter in the below post: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar And elaborate my feelings on the Nasdaq here: Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap Caveat to the above is I now expect the Nas to only do, say, 14,400 and ultimately target the 16,000 figure. You're in an overall market where the US Petrodollar is set to rally, and rally hard: DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia Even though the dollar might only do 108. And our good friend the VIX is too low to be sustainable for any kind of bull run, because they love "selling volatility and going away," so things need to be reset. VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude Geopolitically, there are a lot of problems. Specifically with China. Since Secretary of Treasury Yellen visited Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping and other government officials, there has suddenly been a huge posturing of "Taiwan war" rhetoric in the whole international media propaganda apparatus. China is in no condition to try to invade Taiwan after the damage the pandemic has caused for the last three years, however. In my view, what's really going on is the Chinese Communist Party is about to either be forcibly overthrown by "outside forces" (NATO, Washington, the "International Rules Based Order") via Taiwan. Or Xi is about to dump the CCP to defend the motherland, since he and his faction are major Chinese nationalists. Either way, you have to be very careful if you want to go long on dips. Don't full port or anything stupid, and if you want to go bigly long, do yourself a favour and hedge long on something with volatility. Because whatever happens will happen in Beijing time, which happens to be 12 hours ahead of New York time. Meaning whatever happens will be gap down time. And if Xi dumps the Party and weaponizes the 24-year long persecution of Falun Gong by former CCP Chairman Jiang Zemin and its Shanghai (Babylon) toadling faction, the entire world is going to be implicated in the inquest. Because everyone has been going over to the Mainland to dirty themselves with Jiang and the Spectre of Communism in order to get the financial and social benefits they desire. But as long as things stay on course, here's the call. When it comes to SPY, it's hard to argue what is up isn't going to keep going up. If you ask me, the first target has to be the $461 March of 2022 high. But we've been up a lot for a long time, and SPY set its thus-far July low at $437 on only the third trading day of the month, which was a shortened week because of Canada Day and Independence Day to begin with. You can see that something is amiss by looking at the SPX Futures contract against the DXY, which lost 400 pips in roughly 10 days, marking a significant and strange divergence. Another significant tell is in the Dow, which is the weakest of the indexes right now and a leader, where the DIA ETF made a new high (2 cents, hard to see) but the underlying futures contract did not. This may indicate that the alleged bullish momentum from last week is fraudulent, at least in the short term. Possibly the long term. Friday's market action was really bullish on open and then really bearish on close, which likely means we're due for a reversal. We have an entire eight trading days until the next FOMC rate announcement. After July, there's no meeting until September. So what I think we're about to see is to have a proper July low of the month get set. And before the month ends we'll see a bounce, and our bounce will lead to the $463 target being achieved during the first week of August. And so if we have a middling/strugglebus Monday, it's worth considering reducing your long exposure, if you have long exposure. I think the $433 figure is the target because everyone is a Mason in reality and they just love 33 so much. It also doesn't break the June pivot, which aligns with the August of '22 pivot that was already taken out. More importantly, if $463 is achieved, you have to be exceedingly cautious. There's a certain degree of "financial shocks" that are arranged for Q4 and Q1, 2, and maybe even 3 of 2024 that you will find exceptionally difficult to endure. So make sure you make up for any regrets you have with your friends and family, as soon as possible. Make sure you stand on the right side of history when it comes to humanity's future and the CCP and its Marxist-Leninist junk. Money, fame, power, and sex aren't worth selling your soul for.
AMEX:SPYLong
by LordWrymouth
3
Trade Idea: Defined Risk Options Setups to Short the DIAmondsWith the DIA at fairly long-term overhead resistance, I thought I'd set out how I'd potentially take a bearish assumption directional shot using a defined risk options setup where the max loss is known from the outset. There are several ways to go about this: 1. Short Call Vertical Buy the September 15th 351 call and sell the September 15th 346 call, resulting in a five wide spread for a 2.70 ($270) credit. Max profit is realized on a finish below the short call strike at 346; max loss, on a finish above 351. Metrics: Max Loss: 2.30 ($230) Max Profit: The width of the spread (5.00) minus the credit received (2.30) or 2.70 ($270). Break Even: 348.70 Probability of Profit: 55% ROC %: 117% at max; 58.7% at 50% max. Delta/Theta: -12.03 delta, .79 theta Variations: 1) Go farther out-of-the-money with your spread, giving yourself more room to be wrong, with the trade-off being a smaller credit received and a lower ROC %-age. Example: September 15th 356/361 short call vertical, 1.09 ($109) credit on buying power effect of 3.91 ($391) (which is also your max loss). 27.9% at 50% max; 13.9% at 50% max; -10.02 delta, 1.14 theta. Max loss is realized on a finish below the short option leg of the setup (i.e., 356). 2) Widen the at-the-money spread, but to not more than a risk one/make one setup. Example: September 15th 346/354 Short Call Vertical, 3.95 credit on buying power effect of 4.05 ($405) (which is your max loss). 97.5% ROC at max; 48.8% at 50% max. -19.54 delta, 1.42 theta. Here, you're risking 4.05 to make 3.95, which is about as close to a risk one/make one setup as you can get. If you look at the delta metrics of each as an indicator of how bearish your assumption is, the out-of-the-money spread has the lowest of the bearish assumptions at -10.02 delta; the risk/one make one 8-wide 346/354, the greatest at -19.54. Generally speaking, the setup should match your assumption somewhat, so if you're presumably less confident of a retreat from this level, then you should probably go with the out-of-the money spread; more confident, with the wider, at-the-money spread. 2. Long Put Vertical Buy the September 15th 349 put and sell the September 15th 343 put, resulting in a 6-wide spread for which you pay a 2.50 debit (which is your max loss). Max profit is realized on a finish below 343; max loss on a finish above 349. Metrics: Max Loss: 2.50 ($250) Max Profit: 3.50 ($350) Break Even: 346.50 Probability of Profit: 50% ROC %-age: 140% at max; 70% at 50% max Delta/Theta: -17.95/.72 Variations: As with the short call vertical, you can naturally widen the spread, with my preference being to keep the ROC %-age metrics around a risk one to make one. 3. Long Put Diagonal Buy the September 15th -90 delta 369 put and sell the +30 delta August 18th 339 for a 21.75 ($2175) debit, resulting in a 30-wide calendarized* spread. Max Loss: 21.75 ($2175) Max Profit: 8.25 ($825) Break Even: 347.25 Probability of Profit: 54% ROC %-age: 37.9% at max; 19.0% at 50% max. Delta/Theta: -60.65/2.99 A couple of things stand out about this setup. First, look at the short delta; it's bigly at -60+. Second, look at the price tag; it's also bigly relative to the other setups. That being said, the max profit potential is also greater than the other setups, but would require a finish below the short leg at 369. It does, however, have one additional advantageous element, and that is its calendarization which allows you to roll out the short option leg for additional credit should the setup not work out immediately. This results in a reduction in cost basis for the setup, improves your break even and therefore your profit potential. On a more practical level, I personally don't look to get max profit out of this type of setup. I look to take profit at 10% of what I put it on for and then move on. Here, that would be around $220 or so; given the setup's delta, that would require a move of around 4 handles or so to the downside, which wouldn't be much to ask given price action in the underlying. 4. Zebra**/Put Ratio Spread Buy 2 x the September 15th -75 delta 375 puts (for a total of -150 delta) and sell 1 x the +50 delta put at the 345 for a 13.65 ($1365) debit. Max loss is realized on a finish above 375; max profit isn't defined. Metrics: Max Loss: 13.65 ($1365) Max Profit: Undefined*** Break Even: 347.35 Probability of Profit: 53% Delta/Theta: -101.19/-1.23 As with the long put diagonal, the short delta is bigly -- the biggest of all the setups at -100, so if the underlying moves down one handle, the setup will be in profit by 1.00 ($100). Conversely, if it moves 1.00 to the upside, it will be in the red by 1.00, at least at the outset, when its dynamic delta remains at -100. Since this setup does not reach a "max," taking profit is somewhat subjective. As with the long put diagonal, I generally take profit at 10% of what I put it on for and move on. $136 in profit isn't particularly compelling here, so I could see looking to take profit on movement toward the most recent swing low at 337, which would result in 8 handles or so of -100 delta profit ($800). An added disadvantage to hanging out in this setup for too long for "moar" is that there is some degree of assignment risk if the short put goes deep in-the-money, particularly if it does that toward expiry. 5. High Probability of Touch Long Put Buy the September 15th 342 Long Put for a 4.55 ($455) debit Metrics: Max Loss: 4.55 ($455) Max Profit: Undefined Probability of Profit: 32% Break Even: 337.45 Delta/Theta: -40.72/-4.52 I generally don't do standalone longs for a number of reasons I won't get into here, but thought I'd set out some kind of common sense approach that utilizes one of the metrics most traders that seem inclined to use this approach don't discuss (or aren't aware of) and its "Probability of Touch" -- the likelihood that price will "touch" the strike at some point during the life of the contract. The general rule of thumb is that POT is about 2 times the delta of the strike. Given the fact that this is a -40 delta strike, the POT is around 80%, implying that the options market is pricing in about an 80% probability that price will touch the 342 strike at some point during the life of the contract. * -- It's "calendarized" because one leg is in a different expiry than the other, as compared to the short call and long put verticals, above, where both legs are in the same expiry. ** -- A "Zebra" is a "zero extrinsic back ratio" spread with the short option legs paying for all of the extrinsic in the longs, resulting in an at-the-money break even. *** -- It's technically 347.35 ($34,735), but that assumes DIA goes to zero, which (just taking a stab here) probably isn't going to happen.
AMEX:DIAShort
by NaughtyPines
2
$DJI $NDX $SPX $RUT all pumping but giving back, what now?DJ:DJI is having hard time here, again. The RSI is much lower, negative divergence, steam running out? NASDAQ:NDX is higher but also losing steam, RSI lower. SP:SPX AMEX:RSP & AMEX:IWM all put higher highs but they're also giving back. All the #indices have low volume. Kind of normal for this time of year. TVC:VIX is lower....... Sell on news? Lots of GAINS over past few months. Hmmm, let's see what transpires by end of day. #stocks
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC