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DIA

Opening (Margin): DIA Aug 18th 348/Sept 15th 351/2 x 359... Covered Zebra. Comments: A variation on one of the bearish assumption setups I described over the weekend. (See Post Below). Here, the September 15th 351/2 x 359 is the Zebra aspect, which functions as synthetic short stock. This is, in turn, "covered" by an additional short put so the entire setup has the delta metrics of a covered put (short stock, plus a short put). Put on for an 11.10 debit, I'll look to take profit starting for around 10% of what I put in on for.
AMEX:DIAShort
by NaughtyPines
3
DIA - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Achieved target at 351 after breaking Rectangle formation. 🔹Supports 342 in NEGATIVE reaction. 🔹RSI curve shows rising trend, supporting positive trend. 🔹Technically POSITIVE for medium long term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
AMEX:DIALong
by wavepoint99
NDX - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Index shows NEGATIVE signal from double top formation, broke support at 15426. 🔹Signals further decline to 15057 or lower. 🔹Supports 13600 and resistance at 15800 🔹Technically NEUTRAL for medium long-term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
NASDAQ:NDX
by wavepoint99
$DJI $NDX $SPX $RUT closesHow #indices closed last week. TVC:DJI After a BEARISH ENGULFING it then closed Friday with a doji = battle for the bulls and bears which is unresolved NASDAQ:NDX Fighting back but it is still showing Negative RSI Divergence. SP:SPX Suffering from Negative Divergence. We''ll how #SPX trades over the next few days, weeks. AMEX:RSP (Equal weight) was weaker. This means that the usual big boys pulled more weight. TVC:RUT needs big move soon, lower highs. Lots of earnings this week! Have a great trading week!
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
ES SPX Futures - Welcome to FOMCmageddonIn reading the title of this post, I'm sure you can tell what I want to say. Since the new habit is to guffaw and lmao at any thesis that isn't bullish, because "we" all "know" US equities "always go up" and a new all time high is "in store," I'd like to point out the Nasdaq already shows signs of having topped. That July 20, 2023 candle was some 2%+ in range and on absolutely no news. And yet the SPX has not yet taken its equivalent intermediate term high. The significance of the intermediate term highs that the Nasdaq took and the SPX is probably about to take is that they represent the March of 2022 failure swing. Why does it matter? Because that swing and its destruction was the trumpet-backed announcement that the Coronavirus Disease 2019 stimmie QE bull run had come to an end. And so coming back to raid it at a time when Big Jerome Powell openly told reporters at the last FOMC meeting that no rate cuts were scheduled AND that inflation would take years, not months, to come back to levels they regard as apropos, is a very dangerous situation. The thing about tops and bottoms is that whoever calls them is always wrong, because you can only see a top or a bottom on hindsight. In the interim, as they unfold, you can only anticipate that at a certain key price level, over a certain high or a certain low, that reversal patterns might manifest. The geopolitical situation is very sharp. I note in a new call that oil is likely headed for a literal 3 handle this year. Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins And I note that the US Dollar Index is due for a rally to at least 108. DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia The cornerstone of the international chessboard is now, and always has been, Mainland China and its 5,000 year old country and culture, which has been ruined by the Chinese Communist Party over the course of its century of insanity. What's going on in the equities market is heavily wedded to the "War With Taiwan" narrative being espoused by the propaganda machine, which I discuss in my call on Taiwan Semiconductor TSM, a company that I believe is a significant long hedge during a potential upcoming downtrend. TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge So as for this week's call, I would like to note that, unlike the Nasdaq, the SPX has not raided its March '22 intermediate high. This high at 4,631 happens to coincide with the new "JP Morgan Chase Collar," where one of the SIB's big funds sold calls at 4,665. I discuss this collar below: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' Something to understand about the big banks' business model is this: The first thing is that when they sell calls at a certain level, there is a buyer, and that buyer might be their clients. Their clients may have paid the bank the standard 10% fee in exchange for providing the liquidity. The reason the client would buy calls that JPM sells at a 10% premium is because they understand that the market will be made, in exchange, for those calls to be made worth more than they paid. Those calls were purchased at the end of June when the indexes traded circa 4,400. Why would JPM sell the calls and get themselves underwater? Because by September 29, Q3 end, they won't be underwater anymore, for one. For two, they're hedged long and are making money on the way up on the hedge. So they get to make money on the hedge, the calls ultimately expire worthless, and the client is happy because they got a big bag of cheap options at 4,400 to dump on the head of retail and Cathie Wood-style funds at 4,660. And all of this is to say that the 4,631 failure swing/pivot is very likely to be raided, and it is likely to be raided on Wednesday, FOMC day. During Monday's trade session, we will find out a lot about the intentions of the MMs. I believe they will only raid the 4,544 level on Monday market open, making it a buying opportunity to sell 100 points higher. However, if ES/SPX is to dump significantly to under 4,500 again, it stands to reason that the real target is the 4,800 ATH somewhere early in August. But I think, for a lot of reasons, this is just so less likely. Thus, SPX is likely to raid 4,544, which is to say the 4,550 psychological level, and trade over the 4,650 psychological level before Jerome Powell starts yapping. This FOMC is really significant because there isn't another rate hike until September, the end of Q3. So the trade is to long 4,540, sell it allllll at 4,650, and the target is under where JPM went long on puts and has been under water all month under 4,200 heading into the end of August and middle of September.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LordWrymouth
Is QQQ ready to continue after a minor pullback?On the 4H chart, QQQ has been in a trend up for the entirety of this year reaching 42% YTD. Of late, QQQ has had a 2-3 day pullback correcting a decent uptrend over the prior week. On the Relative Trend Index, while the signal is below the mean line, there is all the more upside and the overall trend is positive. The dual time frame RSI shows weekly RS high and steady over 80 while the lower time frame of 3H as the blue line fluctuating between support at the 50 level and 80 and presently a 50 in the pullbck. I analyse QQQ as ready to continue its overall trend up. I will take out additional call options for a strike of $385 to expire on August 18. Over the past day this option gained 33% and had a bid/ask spread of about 1%. I will set a stop-loss of 10% while anticipating a profit of 150%. Once hitting the anticipated profit before the expiration date I will take one-half of the contracts off the table and close the rest 1-2 days before expiration.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by AwesomeAvani
SPY - A Dip Is Coming. Maybe Buy It?The question at the top of everyone's minds right now is: have the markets topped? It's the kind of question that allows for a great deal of manipulation as sentiment, emotions, and the P&L column are manipulated violently. Since the markets were wildly bullish last quarter, inside of an overall market that is not bullish, and economic fundamentals that are pretty bad, your guard should certainly be up when you see a new quarter begin and price continue to run rampant. I discuss the parameters of a new quarter in the below post: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar And elaborate my feelings on the Nasdaq here: Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap Caveat to the above is I now expect the Nas to only do, say, 14,400 and ultimately target the 16,000 figure. You're in an overall market where the US Petrodollar is set to rally, and rally hard: DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia Even though the dollar might only do 108. And our good friend the VIX is too low to be sustainable for any kind of bull run, because they love "selling volatility and going away," so things need to be reset. VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude Geopolitically, there are a lot of problems. Specifically with China. Since Secretary of Treasury Yellen visited Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping and other government officials, there has suddenly been a huge posturing of "Taiwan war" rhetoric in the whole international media propaganda apparatus. China is in no condition to try to invade Taiwan after the damage the pandemic has caused for the last three years, however. In my view, what's really going on is the Chinese Communist Party is about to either be forcibly overthrown by "outside forces" (NATO, Washington, the "International Rules Based Order") via Taiwan. Or Xi is about to dump the CCP to defend the motherland, since he and his faction are major Chinese nationalists. Either way, you have to be very careful if you want to go long on dips. Don't full port or anything stupid, and if you want to go bigly long, do yourself a favour and hedge long on something with volatility. Because whatever happens will happen in Beijing time, which happens to be 12 hours ahead of New York time. Meaning whatever happens will be gap down time. And if Xi dumps the Party and weaponizes the 24-year long persecution of Falun Gong by former CCP Chairman Jiang Zemin and its Shanghai (Babylon) toadling faction, the entire world is going to be implicated in the inquest. Because everyone has been going over to the Mainland to dirty themselves with Jiang and the Spectre of Communism in order to get the financial and social benefits they desire. But as long as things stay on course, here's the call. When it comes to SPY, it's hard to argue what is up isn't going to keep going up. If you ask me, the first target has to be the $461 March of 2022 high. But we've been up a lot for a long time, and SPY set its thus-far July low at $437 on only the third trading day of the month, which was a shortened week because of Canada Day and Independence Day to begin with. You can see that something is amiss by looking at the SPX Futures contract against the DXY, which lost 400 pips in roughly 10 days, marking a significant and strange divergence. Another significant tell is in the Dow, which is the weakest of the indexes right now and a leader, where the DIA ETF made a new high (2 cents, hard to see) but the underlying futures contract did not. This may indicate that the alleged bullish momentum from last week is fraudulent, at least in the short term. Possibly the long term. Friday's market action was really bullish on open and then really bearish on close, which likely means we're due for a reversal. We have an entire eight trading days until the next FOMC rate announcement. After July, there's no meeting until September. So what I think we're about to see is to have a proper July low of the month get set. And before the month ends we'll see a bounce, and our bounce will lead to the $463 target being achieved during the first week of August. And so if we have a middling/strugglebus Monday, it's worth considering reducing your long exposure, if you have long exposure. I think the $433 figure is the target because everyone is a Mason in reality and they just love 33 so much. It also doesn't break the June pivot, which aligns with the August of '22 pivot that was already taken out. More importantly, if $463 is achieved, you have to be exceedingly cautious. There's a certain degree of "financial shocks" that are arranged for Q4 and Q1, 2, and maybe even 3 of 2024 that you will find exceptionally difficult to endure. So make sure you make up for any regrets you have with your friends and family, as soon as possible. Make sure you stand on the right side of history when it comes to humanity's future and the CCP and its Marxist-Leninist junk. Money, fame, power, and sex aren't worth selling your soul for.
AMEX:SPYLong
by LordWrymouth
3
Trade Idea: Defined Risk Options Setups to Short the DIAmondsWith the DIA at fairly long-term overhead resistance, I thought I'd set out how I'd potentially take a bearish assumption directional shot using a defined risk options setup where the max loss is known from the outset. There are several ways to go about this: 1. Short Call Vertical Buy the September 15th 351 call and sell the September 15th 346 call, resulting in a five wide spread for a 2.70 ($270) credit. Max profit is realized on a finish below the short call strike at 346; max loss, on a finish above 351. Metrics: Max Loss: 2.30 ($230) Max Profit: The width of the spread (5.00) minus the credit received (2.30) or 2.70 ($270). Break Even: 348.70 Probability of Profit: 55% ROC %: 117% at max; 58.7% at 50% max. Delta/Theta: -12.03 delta, .79 theta Variations: 1) Go farther out-of-the-money with your spread, giving yourself more room to be wrong, with the trade-off being a smaller credit received and a lower ROC %-age. Example: September 15th 356/361 short call vertical, 1.09 ($109) credit on buying power effect of 3.91 ($391) (which is also your max loss). 27.9% at 50% max; 13.9% at 50% max; -10.02 delta, 1.14 theta. Max loss is realized on a finish below the short option leg of the setup (i.e., 356). 2) Widen the at-the-money spread, but to not more than a risk one/make one setup. Example: September 15th 346/354 Short Call Vertical, 3.95 credit on buying power effect of 4.05 ($405) (which is your max loss). 97.5% ROC at max; 48.8% at 50% max. -19.54 delta, 1.42 theta. Here, you're risking 4.05 to make 3.95, which is about as close to a risk one/make one setup as you can get. If you look at the delta metrics of each as an indicator of how bearish your assumption is, the out-of-the-money spread has the lowest of the bearish assumptions at -10.02 delta; the risk/one make one 8-wide 346/354, the greatest at -19.54. Generally speaking, the setup should match your assumption somewhat, so if you're presumably less confident of a retreat from this level, then you should probably go with the out-of-the money spread; more confident, with the wider, at-the-money spread. 2. Long Put Vertical Buy the September 15th 349 put and sell the September 15th 343 put, resulting in a 6-wide spread for which you pay a 2.50 debit (which is your max loss). Max profit is realized on a finish below 343; max loss on a finish above 349. Metrics: Max Loss: 2.50 ($250) Max Profit: 3.50 ($350) Break Even: 346.50 Probability of Profit: 50% ROC %-age: 140% at max; 70% at 50% max Delta/Theta: -17.95/.72 Variations: As with the short call vertical, you can naturally widen the spread, with my preference being to keep the ROC %-age metrics around a risk one to make one. 3. Long Put Diagonal Buy the September 15th -90 delta 369 put and sell the +30 delta August 18th 339 for a 21.75 ($2175) debit, resulting in a 30-wide calendarized* spread. Max Loss: 21.75 ($2175) Max Profit: 8.25 ($825) Break Even: 347.25 Probability of Profit: 54% ROC %-age: 37.9% at max; 19.0% at 50% max. Delta/Theta: -60.65/2.99 A couple of things stand out about this setup. First, look at the short delta; it's bigly at -60+. Second, look at the price tag; it's also bigly relative to the other setups. That being said, the max profit potential is also greater than the other setups, but would require a finish below the short leg at 369. It does, however, have one additional advantageous element, and that is its calendarization which allows you to roll out the short option leg for additional credit should the setup not work out immediately. This results in a reduction in cost basis for the setup, improves your break even and therefore your profit potential. On a more practical level, I personally don't look to get max profit out of this type of setup. I look to take profit at 10% of what I put it on for and then move on. Here, that would be around $220 or so; given the setup's delta, that would require a move of around 4 handles or so to the downside, which wouldn't be much to ask given price action in the underlying. 4. Zebra**/Put Ratio Spread Buy 2 x the September 15th -75 delta 375 puts (for a total of -150 delta) and sell 1 x the +50 delta put at the 345 for a 13.65 ($1365) debit. Max loss is realized on a finish above 375; max profit isn't defined. Metrics: Max Loss: 13.65 ($1365) Max Profit: Undefined*** Break Even: 347.35 Probability of Profit: 53% Delta/Theta: -101.19/-1.23 As with the long put diagonal, the short delta is bigly -- the biggest of all the setups at -100, so if the underlying moves down one handle, the setup will be in profit by 1.00 ($100). Conversely, if it moves 1.00 to the upside, it will be in the red by 1.00, at least at the outset, when its dynamic delta remains at -100. Since this setup does not reach a "max," taking profit is somewhat subjective. As with the long put diagonal, I generally take profit at 10% of what I put it on for and move on. $136 in profit isn't particularly compelling here, so I could see looking to take profit on movement toward the most recent swing low at 337, which would result in 8 handles or so of -100 delta profit ($800). An added disadvantage to hanging out in this setup for too long for "moar" is that there is some degree of assignment risk if the short put goes deep in-the-money, particularly if it does that toward expiry. 5. High Probability of Touch Long Put Buy the September 15th 342 Long Put for a 4.55 ($455) debit Metrics: Max Loss: 4.55 ($455) Max Profit: Undefined Probability of Profit: 32% Break Even: 337.45 Delta/Theta: -40.72/-4.52 I generally don't do standalone longs for a number of reasons I won't get into here, but thought I'd set out some kind of common sense approach that utilizes one of the metrics most traders that seem inclined to use this approach don't discuss (or aren't aware of) and its "Probability of Touch" -- the likelihood that price will "touch" the strike at some point during the life of the contract. The general rule of thumb is that POT is about 2 times the delta of the strike. Given the fact that this is a -40 delta strike, the POT is around 80%, implying that the options market is pricing in about an 80% probability that price will touch the 342 strike at some point during the life of the contract. * -- It's "calendarized" because one leg is in a different expiry than the other, as compared to the short call and long put verticals, above, where both legs are in the same expiry. ** -- A "Zebra" is a "zero extrinsic back ratio" spread with the short option legs paying for all of the extrinsic in the longs, resulting in an at-the-money break even. *** -- It's technically 347.35 ($34,735), but that assumes DIA goes to zero, which (just taking a stab here) probably isn't going to happen.
AMEX:DIAShort
by NaughtyPines
2
$DJI $NDX $SPX $RUT all pumping but giving back, what now?DJ:DJI is having hard time here, again. The RSI is much lower, negative divergence, steam running out? NASDAQ:NDX is higher but also losing steam, RSI lower. SP:SPX AMEX:RSP & AMEX:IWM all put higher highs but they're also giving back. All the #indices have low volume. Kind of normal for this time of year. TVC:VIX is lower....... Sell on news? Lots of GAINS over past few months. Hmmm, let's see what transpires by end of day. #stocks
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$DJI $NDX $SPX $RUT Long & Short term viewsBringing indices up again, Let's look at the SHORT TERM first. (Unfortunately can only show 1 chart, see profile for more info) DJ:DJI longer term still showing an ascending triangle, current pattern is sideways channel, there's some negative divergence. NASDAQ:NDX maintains the uptrend, HOWEVER - we're seeing SEVERE negative divergence. SP:SPX also in current sideways channel, and also showing SEVERE negative divergence. TVC:RUT completes the bunch with a sideways channel and some neg divergence. ---------------------------------------------------- Longer term #indices are interesting. Using weekly. DJ:DJI showing slight negative divergence, needs to break out FAST NASDAQ:NDX Extremely overbought, last 3 times; 2 corrections, 1 major drop. SP:SPX Nothing out of the ordinary, lil overbought, see #NDX notes. TVC:RUT Severe underperformer and it looks like it wants to catch up to the others. #stocks
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Dow Jones Industrials suddenly not looking too shabbyThe Dow Jones has been out on vacation for the first half of this year, not really participating in the melt-up, and instead, consolidating and working off that sharp rally from Q4 2022. After all, it was one of the first indexes to bottom from the depths of the bear and start leading things higher. But now after all of this sideways consolidation, it's starting to offer up a favorable reward-to-risk if it can build momentum over 34,500. Perhaps a possible rotation into YTD leaders and back into industrials for the second half of the year? I'm not so sure about that yet, but it's a chart worth paying attention to.
TVC:DJI
by EvanMedeiros
2
What is the $VIX showing us?Good Morning SMALL THREAD While we did call the NASDAQ:NDX weakness & top, at that time we didn't think it would be as bad as it got, at least I didn't. Last year we really thought TVC:VIX would break out & the markets would collapse. Our original expectations didn't pan out but we, mostly I, changed as more data came in. We called a bunch of bounces & tops, ALL DOCUMENTED, BUT our best call was becoming BULLISH in late September on DJ:DJI & Bullish on NASDAQ:NDX in October. Since then we've been cautious Bull with a few bearish calls but ultimately, we were/are still bullish. During this time the TVC:VIX was forming a HUGE Symmetrical Triangle that we posted on countless times. We were biased and thought the TVC:VIX would break out and #stocks would be cremated. Obviously, were bullish after Sept 2022 but we thought there would be an eventual harsh crash that made 2022 like a walk in the park. When #VIX broke down we were SHOCKED! That's when we knew that the can was being kicked further down the road. There's a lot more at play that we've been discussing on occasion. SP:SPX has been on a tear but it is currently in a consolidation phase as seen on a daily chart. However, as you can see, RSI can remain overbought on a weekly for long periods of time. TVC:VIX is slowly closing in on a major support level. While it can break through, IMO, don't think it will do it the 1st time. #VIX will likely get a nice bounce. This bounce will likely be strong and could mean possible weakness for #stocks, soon.
CBOE:VIX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
SDOW a triple leveraged ETF shorts the DOWSDOW is shown here on a 30 minute chart current rising above a parallel descending channel which is within a longer trend of a downward-facing megaphone pattern where it is currently situated near the top of the megaphone. I have drawn the two trendlines onto the chart and added an RSI indicator. My plan is to take a short trade on SDOW by looking for an entry on the 5 minute time frame where the HA candles are red and the RSI has dropped below 50. I will set the stop loss above the resistance trendline while targeting the support trendline at the low of the pattern.
S
by AwesomeAvani
UDOW a triple leveraged ETF of the DOW indexUDOW is shown here on the 30-minute chart rising over the past month in an ascending parallel channel. The chart shows the price currently situated near to the bottom of the channel which is the support trendline drawn onto the chart with the resistance trendline as well. My trading plan is I will take a long trade of 50 shares with a stop loss immediately below the support trendline. I see a targets as $ 62 and $ 65 making for a very favorable reward for the risk taken. For the entry, I will use the 5- minute chart and enter when the HA candles are green and the RSI is above 50. I realize that the DOW has less volatility than the S & P or NASDAQ but with that is less overall risk of reversals and pullbacks. I tend to take higher-risk trades but see this as having a balancing effect in my overall portfolio.
AMEX:UDOW
by AwesomeAvani