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$NDX leads but has had issues in this area beforeBeen away for a week, needed time off. Visited family. Did some light trading, mostly closing closing puts sold as most of them expired worthless = We kept PREMIUM! 🙂 - Let's see how markets fared. - As we expected, $NDX has done decently & has kept retesting the upper boundary hit in February. It's breaking above today. BULLISH if accompanied with volume. As we've stated for months, markets don't act as most believe. They are irrational much of the time. - $DJI has not fared as well BUT will LIKELY join #NDX in the upward movement. The issue was 2 #banks on the #DJI. The #DowJones fared much better during the beginning of the year but lost leadership in February. - $VIX has stayed in the middle part of the Symmetrical Triangle. Which tends to be the case until as extreme direction ensues. As stated countless times this can stay the case until mid 2024! Most likely not but it can. We believe it will touch the bottom part of the trend, higher probability, before, IF, it hits the top part again. #stocks #stockmarket #vix
NASDAQ:NDX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
vix 8 hour chart another 150% spike in April?Hello traders, today let's review VIX 8hour and daily chart . Is it possible that another 150% burst is in the making now? Entirely plausible, in fact based on advanced XABCD setup the current pullback/correction might be over near 15/16.00 later in April. Based on time/price symmetry point C of the XABCD pattern structure might come in at 15/16.00 sometime in April 2023. The pattern is defined by point X at 33.00, point A at18.50, point B at 30.00, expecting point C print at 16.00 and point D print at 38.00, based on 127 extension. Recommended strategy: buy calls / write puts once we land near point C near 16.00. this is a higher risk entry strategy, so always do your own due dill and use other indicators to confirm the entry. good luck! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:VIXLong
by ProjectSyndicate
21
Who would you trust with your money?Spoiler alert: More evidence against NDQ in this idea! US Companies are organized in clusters, some of them are DJI, SPX, RUT, NDQ etc. Some of them are more trustworthy than others. And by that I mean which of these sets one can depend on. DJI is indeed a dependable group of companies, the so called Blue Chips. Composed of the 30 largest US Companies. These companies aren't playing around, they have deep foundations that can withstand the worst of crises. The opposite of foundation is hollow ground. In finance, one hollow ground could be derivatives. More info about the possible repercussions of derivatives in my last idea: Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction. -Warren Buffett I have talked about how you should not blindly trust the price of the main indices. And as we know, the effect of derivatives is embedded in the price we see every day in our Watchlists. Equity price is a victim of derivatives. You know, these derivatives which by default have no foundation and are susceptible to a possible crash like the .com bubble. Let's hope a ".options" crash doesn't come for derivatives. And if it does, let's hope that the "weapons of mass destruction" was a figure of speech! So how big is their effect? BIS warned about the hidden debt, the "everything bubble" we have created and we are comfortably sitting inside it. Buffett has warned about derivatives. The only thing I can analyze is these hyperbolic charts, namely SQQQ (short QQQ) and it's cousins DOG (short DJI) and SPXU (short SPX). To remotely begin to make sense of their nature, we have to reduce their exponent. Dividing a chart by an arbitrary amount doesn't "flatten" it to a lower growth scale. We will have to raise SQQQ to 0.2 for example to bring it down to meaningful and comparable levels. I tried normalizing these 3 beasts, using the following methodology: For the entire history of SQQQ we calculate the SQQQ^-1 chart, and measure how much it grew in this period. As seen above, SQQQ^-1 increased by 17000x. To make it comparable to QQQ, we progressively increase the exponent so as to make QQQ and SQQQ growths identical. If this explanation didn't make sense, the following chart may clear things out. So we come up with the following "balanced" derivative charts. SPX // SPXU^-0.216 DJI // DOG^-0.62 QQQ // SQQQ^-0.244 WIth the // symbol I mean that these charts move in parallel. So what can we infer from them? More speculation maybe, more questions than answers... But still, there seems to be some important difference between them. I will divide these two charts to make some sense. When the chart increases, the "real" part of the index is increasing. When the chart decreases, the "derivative" part of the index is increasing. So in a sense, the chart increases when indices grow fairly , without cheating using derivatives. First SPX Next DJI Finally QQQ (NDQ) Painful... Is this derivative bubble the only reason NDQ is still afloat in this immense QT environment? In an attempt to keep business going and as money gets scarce, Big Tech is pushing prices higher using an immense amount of derivatives. Are these derivatives going to be the doom of NDQ? All of this may be speculative and some charts may not be financially true. But sometimes, price simply discounts everything. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
AMEX:DOG
by akikostas
10
GS WAVE C CRASH EARLY STAGEThe chart posted is my top wave count based on ew and cycles I do not in anyway see the Fed coming to the rescue the cycles I stated in dec 2021 are clear the deflation of ALL assets min downside is and will be at or about the march 23 low 2020. . I have been every clear based on 121 years of data the 20 month avg turned down and had 90 days to overcome the 4250 area in the sp 500 we have now passed it 3 days ago we are only mid point in the Bear Market and the worst has yet to come . The fed will reduce the balance sheet over the next 24/30 months and based on the Mandate of 1913 to keep INFLATION under control .I stated in dec 2021 the we ended a super cycle bull market dated back to 1974 and most likey to 1932 under both views my target of 3511/3490 was going to be the first leg down . We ended the abc rally into aug 16th as the forecast called for then dropped into the time cycle due oct 4th to the 20th focus oct 10th we have rallied into alt date for wave 2 into feb top the only way to view this drop at BEST is a wave B . I have moved all my funds into us T BILLS . the wave C CRASH based on all the data back to 1902 has min date is OCT 2023 and No New BULL MARKET till OCT 2024 The DEPRESSION LOW . BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER . I ALWAYS SAID I WOULD BE HONEST AND STRAIGHT FORWARD
NYSE:GS
by wavetimer
Things look ugly for $DJI but there's ray of light$DJI has seen a ton of SELL volume & in reality the environment doesn't seem conducive of any positives. Bu there are some. Pluses: Doji - Needs more confirmation tomorrow. Oversold on daily & support is 32.5k Major long term downtrend is around 31.1k Inverse Head & Shoulder can still pan out as long as #DJI doesn't break below the last barrier. Technically, it can go to MAJOR support in the 30k area. Yes, it's ugly but that is some hope for the bulls. The other indices don't look as good.
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$VIX hits top part of Symmetrical triangle$VIX rarely tends to trade in a small & tight range. #VIX Sold off big last couple months & traded in a decent range for a bit & recently, including today, popped big. As you can see it hit the top part of the Triangle Formation. Hard to call here but stocks gaining some momentum, being that many were OVERSOLD, including $DJI & $NDX, $SPX and so on, is not out of the question. Risk reward @ day lows in #stocks was good. A lot of fear out there is good for reversals. Keep eye out on 4 hour charts for a good idea of where we stand. FYI $DJI 4hour close was NOT the best setup BUT it did form a BULLISH Engulfing with GOOD VOLUME. IMO 32.5k on #DJI is good & if it breaks & holds that is a good sign.
CBOE:VIX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
SPX500 - The Smallest Retrace & The First To GoI have to point out once again that, despite all the bearish fundamentals, market price action is simply not a bear market. You see this so clearly on SPX's monthly bars: During the worst of October, all the market was really doing was retracing to the two-month late 2020 orderblock that ultimately led to the 4,800 ATH. Price has since retraced and the markets at large don't like to dump, even on bad news. Even CPI coming in hot didn't lead to much of a dump. The Geopolitical Climate With China The most important factor when trading these markets is that you have to keep an eye on what's going on with China at all times. I've talked in my previous posts extensively and ad nauseum about how the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic has killed a lot more people than the Chinese Communist Party and western establish media let on. But what this all points to is simply that the Party is in a weakened state. What the Party being in a weakened state means is that a number of geopolitical factions, most notably the western globalist (western Communist Party) bloc has its eyes on how to seize and take control of China as the evil regime falls. The way the globalists will do things is not to invade China, because the Chinese people and the world will not recognize a western occupation of the mainland. Instead, over the years, groups like the World Economic Forum and other globalist arms have, for a long period of time, been grooming certain Chinese nationals, who are themselves members of the Party, to make preparations for how to seize control of the country when Xi Jinping falls. The problem the globalists face is that they aspire to install a one world government. But to do that, they need the world's (formerly) largest population and oldest country, China. However, the existence of the CCP with its rogue, arrogant, and dominating nature makes this impossible, unless the globalists would like to make the CCP the center of the world government, which they obviously do not. Because they want to be the center of the world government. And so preparations have been in the works for years as to how to take control of China when the Party is gone. The problem for humanity is that China's 5,000 years of tradition and culture are critical for the future. Yet, everywhere the globalist faction goes you get a twisted, atheist, modernist culture that can't tell the difference between genders, is highly promiscuous, and serves in many ways as a force even worse than the CCP has been in its weakened state over the recent years. And so, this is the real threat: what the globalist faction will do when it feels the CCP is teetering on the edge. Anything is on the table, because a global crisis will be needed in advance. Environmental disasters, pandemics and plagues, war, problems with nuclear plants, social problems within certain countries, Project Bluebeam stuff, all are on the table. And all such risks are on the table at any time, and these problems are arranged to unfold when the markets are high, not low, so as to create an additional layer of pain and panic in both the business and civilian sectors. A layer of the crisis wherein everyone is losing a lot of money is important, because it hurts and causes a lot of damage, and the Party needs a significant and intense crisis in order to have the pretext needed to "save you" from as they install one world government, which is really, the "Ultimate Goal of Communism." So, be careful. Whatever you believe is your own business, but at least someone is willing to warn you of what is unfolding under your nose. The call On weekly bars you can see that the February FOMC pump came up just short of the September CPI gap surprise panic that led markets to the 2022 low of the year: What this should tell you is that no matter the bearish narrative prevailing or the bearish, scary impulse that may be coming, the SPX has not topped. Instead, I believe after we're finished being scary for a bit, we're going to see 4,500. Moreover, because I believe that Oil, Natural Gas, and even Silver are prone to go up in the shorterm, that the SPX's retrace is going to be the smallest, and it'll be the first of the indexes to go up. WTI Crude - Step 1) $88 --> Step 2) $58 Natural Gas? More Like Natural Go. 4-Handle Coming. Silver SI - A Simple Trendline and Levels Scalp A 200 point dump into the 3,800s is enough to make SPY calls expire worthless, enough to scare bulls, trap bears, and enough to give you a 15% upside for a run to 4,500. You need to fade the bear hype right now, but you also have to be careful about how and when you get in. That means utilizing ETFs, commons that compose the index, and calls that have a 3-6 month expiry, because things could take 30 or 45 days to really unfold and really breakout. But importantly, if you do see SPX 4,500 and 4,600, you have to check your enthusiasm. You might see a new ATH, but that ATH may serve to be a bump and run reversal that will seriously hurt you. And most critically, you need to focus your effort on improving your character, taking care of your family, and patching up whatever regrets you're carrying around. Because life is short. Human life is so short. Everyone is about to experience and understand again just how fragile human life really is. Be careful, friends.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by LordWrymouth
11
TLT - iShares Long-Bond ETF / US30 - Scalp Short, Switch LongThe TLT 20+ year bond ETF has, at this point, been bearish since August. Personally, I thought after the late December-early January push upwards that TLT would have made a new high before dropping for a while because yields were trading a lot lower than the Fed rate, but that move never transpired and the shares have instead been mucking around. I don't specifically like this price action for puts/shorts, because there's two big factors that make me believe TLT is going up: 1. On the monthly bars, there's nowhere lower for TLT to go, unless you believe a new all time low is coming: Monthly The 2014-2015 lows were taken during last year's bear pulses, in fact. The same can be said for the weekly candles: Weekly When taken in light of the fact that TLT has not traded like it wants to go down for the last three months, this really is a spot that I think a trader has to either stay flat or look for a long at lower prices. However, there's a big tell that there's a premium short scalp opportunity manifest in US30, the 30-year US Treasury Bond: US30 30-year US Treasury Bond - Daily The key factors are: 1. July of '21 was a complete gap fill 2. December of '22 made a lower low 3. The enormous November CPI surprise pump candle gap has been left untouched 4. The '22 year end retrace left the psychological 99.xx level untouched 5. The retrace on TLT to $99.60 was only a sweep of range equilibrium, evidenced by the fact that a new high has not been set. The FOMC candle failed to set a new high, too. And all of that combines to lead me to believe that the US30 has in the range of 6-10 percent to retrace, and imminently, which would drive TLT down by $7-11. Moreover, a $10 raid on TLT would make a lot of sense if there's about to be a significant moon mission in the markets. It would take out the December pivot lows, rebalance the CPI-candle gap, and give permanent bears a chance to lose their accounts going short at the bottom. But I believe if you're going to go short here, you have to treat it as a scalp. Because there's no downside left besides setting a new all time low on the ETF, which mirrors the bond market in its own manifestation, chances are we go up. Moreover, with the Fed clearly slowing the pace of their rate hikes, there's no reason to believe bond yields will exceed 5% for more than a few days until late 2023 at the earliest. $98-95 TLT would be a long with targets at $120 and $130. When the markets start to go up again, you have to avoid being short, but you also need to be super, super careful being long. The reason is that the situation in China with Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party being sacked by the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic is many, many, many times worse than we're being led to believe by establishment media and social influencers. The number of deaths in China has been terrifying, and whenever you're dealing with so many excess deaths, a country is going to lose a certain percentage of its engineers, technicians, and supply chain. This, in my opinion, is the real reason companies like Apple are moving their production out of China. So one day in this lifetime of ours when the CCP falls like the USSR did, it will happen overnight, and China daytime is US night time, meaning the US equities and bond markets will go gap down, but this time they'll just stay gap down. Moreover, the world will change when the Party is gone. The normalcy we've become accustomed to and this way of living as human beings will all change. But the transition won't be so pleasant. It's very important to value virtue and do your best to cultivate your heart. Atheism and the theory of evolution are unscientific poisons. Never forget this.
NASDAQ:TLT
by LordWrymouth
DJI intraday sets up for DAILY movementsFrom yesterday ---------- 11:34AM 1hr VOLUME SUCKED BUT That 1Hr Doji is a good sign & RSI positive divergence 4Hr looks ok, reversal but not strong enough NEED more volume More later after #DJI $DJI #stocks --- 12:21PM $DJI Volume pumps up more & we close the 4Hour (around 130est) ABOVE 32793 = GREAT sign (((FYI IT DID NOT DO IT))) ------------------------ 4:05PM It' been a 1k point battle for $DJI Today we close with a DOJI Again, this week IS IMPORTANT! Flat day but 1st signs of buys Time running out but still holding! --------------- TODAY TODAY TODAY $DJI bulls are fighting hard & not giving up here 30Min looks ok Changed 20 EMA to 30 & painting lil better picture 1Hr reversed back to 20EMA 4Hr still not there, Needs to trade north of RED EMA BEST if resolved TODAY
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$DJI call was spot on, bounce so farWent back to basics last week Loaded up on $DJI, specifically $UDOW Will unload as #DJI closer to resistance, red dotted FUD to lower #stocks #crypto Then buy the sellers CLOCKWORK, media is GREAT contrarian indicator --- THIS WAS POST LAST WEEK $DJI What do you see? (Was a CHANNEL & $SJI close to support) IMO RISK REWARD entry point good here if we close above the dotted line $NDX doesn't look as good but will likely follow More POVs for $BTC #BTC Up & Sideways Channels = both good 4 bulls #crypto
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC