Long term long anticipation record purpose GBPCAD Hello Traders,
I anticipate for long GBPCAD
I will be honored to have your reflection on my analysis.
Thank you.
Diagonal
Eur/Noki BuyI got back in this considering how it consolidated and basically made a flag for a buy. The level we want to see it break is that green line right above it. Probably at least a scalp to 9.600, possibly much more, I would look for it to break trend line and at least form a rectangular channel. My TP 1 is 9.61279, TP 2 9.6949
USD/CAD zoomed inThese are the 2 scenarios scenarios I see. Looking for them to scare or take out sellers if they are going to continue down
Why Selling The Dollar Isn’t A Good TradeThe US Dollar has been falling since the start of 2017, and even for most of January in 2018. Many banks are calling for a continue weakening in the US Dollar for the rest of 2018, riding on the down trend established since last year.
However, our analysis tells us otherwise. While we currently still do not have a fundamental catalyst to tilt the Dollar to the upside, we are seeing the downside for Dollar to be limited. In fact, there is a fair chance we will see a deep retracement, if not a reversal in the Dollar soon.
We are seeing a 5-wave completion on the Dollar, with a diagonal forming on the 4-hour chart. What we need is simply a catalyst or fundamental tilt to align our technical outlook.
Keeping a close watch on this next week.
*This is not a trade call to enter a long position on DXY. Make sure you have a proper plan to trade and manage your risk.
BITCOIN HOURLY CHART JAN 17TH 2018 12:00 CSTBTC APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED AT THIS POINT A DESCENDING TRIANGLE AND IS LIKELY TO HAVE ENDED THE WORST OF THE CORRECTION UPON BREAKING OUT OF THE TRIANGLE. 8727 RANGE IS THE MOST LIKELY PRICE LEVEL FOR SUPPORT TO RESULT IN AN TREND REVERSAL.
2018 Macro Outlook - EURCHF Bearish BiasWe have a rather bullish meeting minutes from the European Central Bank (ECB) last week, but as long as ECB maintains its easing policies, upside on the Euro may be limited.
Combining with the technical aspects on the chart, we are seeing an ending diagonal structure forming, with a divergence on RSI as well.
Adding on, we do see price hit the minimum expected areas based on fibonacci extension between 100% - 123.6% too.
These reasons provided me the conviction in looking for a longer term trade to the downside on this pair.
I will be following up and tracking this thread regularly throughout the year. Make sure you follow this idea to get notified whenever there is an update on this idea.
Have a great trading year ahead!
200 Pips Profit Opportunity on AUD/USDAfter the first official trading week of 2018, activities in the market are starting to pick up, and we are seeing volatility coming back.
We are seeing an ideal technical setup on AUD/USD.
In addition, we do have the US Core CPI and Core Retail Sales data coming in on Friday.
The release of these economic data might act as a potential catalyst to strengthen the US Dollar, potentially giving us a nice confluence for the short setup on AUD/USD.
On the AUD/USD H4 chart, price has been ‘crawling’ higher. This is a term that we use to describe price losing momentum as it continues to move higher.
We are also seeing a RSI divergence forming. Adding on to our technical confluence, price has also reached the key fibonacci area between the 100% to 123.6% extension.
All these gave us an ideal technical sell setup on the AUD/USD.
What we need is a potential catalyst to push price down impulsively; and we are expecting the catalyst to come from Friday’s US data.
Core CPI and Retail Sales are forecasted to come in at 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. Should the actual data come in higher than the forecast, we will have a strong reason to take the short trade on AUD/USD, potentially targeting 0.7641 – 0.7685 area.
XAUUSD - Potential Follow Through On GoldPrice is currently forming a diagonal structure (wedge) on the H4 timeframe. This gives us a bearish bias in the immediate term.
However, we are still expecting price to eventually head higher, at least for another swing towards the previous trend line around the 1271 - 1279 area. Perhaps from there, we might see more selling pressure for a long term short trade. (Refer to the daily timeframe as shared before)
Disclaimer - this is not a trade call. Make sure you do your own due diligence before taking any trade.
EUR vs. AUD 1H Chart. Ending Diagonal | #euraud #forex #aud #eurTraders,
EURAUD has gone "too far too fast", so as for an Ending Diagonal to be in play with its fifth wave ending in a "throw over". Price broke the ii.- v. line with a sharp spike,
and started correcting, unfolding into a Zig-Zag labeled in minuette degree, a. - b. - c.
Looking for further drop, after price reach possible reversal zones at 1.57000(+/-) where fib-price ratios confluence pinpoint.
Trade with discipline
Best
EUR/JPY - TIME FOR A DEEP CORRECTION?From the looks of it the pair has completed an Expanding Diagonal, therefore I expect a deeper correction to occur if the pair is to continue moving higher up. On the Weekly TF we also have a rather strong Bearish Divergence which is why that could be signalling a deep pullback in the making.
My personal details:
Potential Short @ E: 134.50, SL: 135.30, TP1: 128.00, TP2: 122.85, RR: 14.6
For risk and money management purposes, always determine a max. of 2% risk on every trade.
For example on a $50,000 account, this would be equivalent to 1,25 Lots with an 80 pip stop loss.
Targets and closure of positions may be subject to alteration throughout the course of the trade. This is due to the ever-changing and unpredictable nature of the market.
This post is set to be used and serve as an example and in an educational manner and is not to be taken as direct investment advice.
EURAUD - 300 Pips PotentialPrice has hit the minimum expectation zone between 1.5546 to 1.5724 area, forming a diagonal structure with divergence formed on the RSI.
These provide us with a good conviction to look for a short trade targeting 1.5250 area, giving us a total of 300 pips potential.
Disclaimer - this is not a trade call. Make sure you understand the risk before trading.
AUDJPY - Diagonal It's time to call it bottom. Bulls have some fun (:
AUDJPY is forming a diagonal at the end of the impulse, possible next move is on the up side.
AUDCHF Targeting 0.7620Very similar to the setup on AUDJPY, we are seeing a diagonal structure with divergence formed.
Will price reverse and hit the 0.7620 target?
AUDJPY - Potential Reversal Up?Price is forming a diagonal pattern, with a divergence formed.
Will we see a reversal to the upside soon?
EUR/CHF - ENDING DIAGONAL IN PLAY - DOWNSIDE INCOMINGWe cannot say with certainty that the pair will be completing the 5th wave of the Ending Diagonal formation. The possibility exists that it could shoot down from the price it's currently found at. In my opinion, with how structure works it should make the last wave up, breaking the 1.172x level before the downside begins. Looking at the bigger picture, the Weekly TF, we are found in a possible Potential Leading Expanding Diagonal and we are towards the end of wave 3 and going into wave 4 and the 1.09xx levels
Personal details:
Short @ E: 1.1725, SL: 1.1800, TP1: 1.1385, TP2: 1.1265, TP3: 1.0910, RR: 10.9
For risk and money management purposes, always determine a max. of 2% risk on every trade.
For example on a $50,000 account, this would be equivalent to 1,25 Lots with an 80 pip stop loss.
Targets and closure of positions may be subject to alteration throughout the course of the trade. This is due to the ever-changing and unpredictable nature of the market.
This post is set to be used and serve as an example and in an educational manner and is not to be taken as direct investment advice.
FB Buy - Target $189 - Playing it with DiagonalsAs of today, FB has closed with a nice solid candle to the upside, breaking a 3 day tight consolidation range, on top of the 0.618 Fib Level.
If we take the Trend Based Fib Extension tool and use the low of July 2017 at $147.80, the high of July at $175.49 and the low of $161.56 in September, our conservative target at the 100% level, brings us to $189. Stop Loss should be placed at $176.75.
The best way to play this move, will be to purchase the Delta 70+ December 15 $177.50 Call for $5.80 and sell the December 1 $182.50 Call for $1.25 against it (Diagonal). If the price moves above $182.5 by December 1st, our long calls will be called for a net profit of ($182.5-$177.50) - ($5.80-$1.25) = $5 - $4.55 = $0.45. On the $5 wide spread, this represents $0.45/$5 = 9% ROR over a time span of 7 trading days. On an annualized basis, this will be amazing!
On the other hand, if the price remains below the $182.5 by December 1st, we get to keep our collected premium of $1.25, reducing our cost basis down to $4.55 ($5.80-$1.25). Then, we can turn around and either sell the December 8th $182.5 for $1 and further reduce our cost basis & risk to $3.55 ($4.55-$1), or let it ride towards our target $189, trailing it with the 8 EMA on a closing basis.
If we sold the December 8th $182.5 for $1 and now the price has jumped above the $182.50, our profit is $5-$3.55 = $1.45, or $1.45/$5 = 29% over 12 trading days.
Or, if we let it ride and by December 15th, it has hit our $189 target, then over the course of 17 trading days, the profit will be $189 - ($177.5+$3.55) = $7.95, or $7.95/$3.55 = 224%.
Happy Trading
Lindosskier
BTC/USD The end of the diagonal triangle formation. Finally!!!Currently we have ended the diagonal triangle formation and it appears after extensive market movement and several re-adjustments of my chart (E) 5th wave of the diagonal triangle formation hit a pivot below the 0.618 fib line at 5405 and is currently hovering around the 0.618 fib line. Currently momentum and volume are rising with the potential to finally hit the 6200 mark within the next few days. RSI is still over sold and also still within the 70% volume profile area. It has been a wild ride and I am looking forward to the bull ride.
GBPAUD - UPSIDE, UPSIDE, UPSIDE!Although this post is intended for the shorter term, even if we look at the bigger picture (Weekly TF) I can spot an Expanded Diagonal correction and we would now be at the final 5th leg of the sequence going up towards the upper level of the Diagonal. I will be posting the weekly chart for reference. Also as further confirmation we can see the formation a relatively long Hammer Candle could indicated bullish bias building up.
Trade safe and implement your own due diligence before executing a trade.
UPDATE: IWM 11/17 135 LONG PUT-10/27 138 SHORT PUT DIAGONALThis trade started out as a same strike calendar with the back month at the 40 delta strike and the front month at the same strike (see Post Below). As price has moved and I've rolled aspects of the setup, it has now morphed into a diagonal, with a roll today from the October 13th 138 short put to the October 27th 138 short put for a realized gain and a .26 ($26)/contract credit to delta balance the setup and to further reduce cost basis since the short put was approaching 50% max.
The previous scratch point was .72; it's now .46.
Unfortunately, I don't have that many roll opportunities left to further reduce cost basis, so I'll need some fairly significant movement toward the put side to bail on this prior to back month expiry ... .
