Today I lost 70% of my portfolio, we going to 18.5kApologies for my wronged TA. I went long at our 22.3k support, the 4h showed bearish divergences but I ignored it, initially I was in profit, but in the end I lost a lot... I think this price action no longer is like 2019, but more like 2015. We will retest 18.5~18.6k. I have my long ready. No stop loss this time.
Diary
Trader's DiaryHello everyone
Today we will talk about what most traders avoid and underestimate - Trader's Diary.
Traders believe that the Trader's Diary is a waste of time, but in fact the Trader's Diary directly affects the trader's income.
Why keep a trader's diary?
If you keep a diary honestly and impartially, over time you will gain a lot of statistics of inputs, outputs and emotions experienced when trading.
This is a useful database that will help identify weaknesses and recurring errors, helping to fix and not repeat them again.
What should I write in diary?
Date and time of the signal occurrence.
The chart at the moment of entering the market , for clarity, you can make notes justifying the actions of the trader. If the work is done on graphical analysis, then markup is needed.
The result of trading. Regardless of whether the trade is closed by take profit, stop or ahead of schedule manually, it is advisable to attach a chart.
Comment. The trader's thoughts on entering/exiting the market are briefly indicated here. It is advisable to record emotions, for example, "the signal complies with the rules, but there is a feeling that it is not worth entering" or "the graph has not reached the Fibo level a little, the volume has been reduced".
This is the necessary minimum.
You can also add the following items to the report:
Maximum drawdown as a percentage and in the deposit currency.
Volume.
The state of capital after the position is closed.
The duration of keeping the transaction open.
Losses due to swap, spread.
How not to keep a journal
The key violation of the rules when keeping a diary is a frivolous attitude towards it. If you keep a journal only to comply with a formality, then it will not be of any use. With this attitude, important information concerning psychology and emotions is guaranteed to be missed.
If a trader is lazy, does not accompany transactions with illustrations of the state of the market, forgets to make part of the transactions, the value of the report decreases.
Analysis of trade and your emotions at the entrance
When analyzing trading, the most difficult thing is to give your actions a sober assessment. If, for example, you put out a limit order in violation of the strategy rules, and this caused a loss, you do not need to explain your blunder by external factors.
That is why it is extremely important at the time of entry to indicate not only the technical characteristics of the transaction, but also emotions. Nobody will control the correctness of keeping a diary, you need to learn this yourself.
As for the analysis, after accumulating an array of statistics, first of all look for emotional losing trades. This is one of the most common mistakes of traders. I recommend starting the optimization of trading with this.
Resume
A trader's diary is a tool that indirectly affects the results of trading. It teaches you to work in a measured manner with a clear assessment of each entry point. Keeping a diary allows you to eliminate the emotional component from trading over time, and thereby improve results.
I recommend getting used to keeping a journal from the very beginning, entering information on all transactions into it. Regular analysis will show weaknesses in trading, it remains only to eliminate them and continue trading. To facilitate the task, you can use auxiliary services that collect an array of statistics in automatic mode.
BTC DIARY CORRECTIONGood morning, follow BTC analysis and a possible trade for the next few hours.
If you are enjoying the analysis and have questions and suggestions, leave a comment below, like and subscribe, also follow me on Twitter.
Comment if you are interested in knowing more about timeframes, the indicators I use and even other indicators that I have programmed and that have helped me a lot, I can write explaining them.
Twitter: @Jack74541196
Indicators Used
• RSI
• Light RSI
• VPRP
• Averages of 12 and 26 periods
• Graphic pattern
Current scenario
BTC is now looking for a rising bottom on the daily chart, this usually occurs when the 1h chart goes oversold on the RSI. One factor can harm this trade, BTC has already hit 1h on short and I exit quickly, this can cause our orders not to be executed, on the positive side, below the buy zone there is strong support which makes us more comfortable to place our orders and a clear STOP LOSS point.
The news about the war between Russia and Ukraine has been losing strength in the market, affecting less and less, as expected. SPY500USD looked for a correction on the 1h chart (5 min oversold) and held at 42700, which is excellent, probably on SPY we will have a GAP at the opening followed by a rally.
Conclusion
Using VPRP we map the price ranges where BTC will find support and resistance (red and green box) and within this range we can find the highest resistance prices (red line). Knowing that the daily chart has had a big rally and now needs to correct, let's use the RSI lvls to find the price range on the 1h chart that corresponds to this correction (yellow box). Finally, we use the Fib Retracement, to see where the 0.65 line (gold line) is, a great buy indicator.
The Fib retraceally coincides with the entry of the RSI lvls at 1h, which in turn has a strong resistance zone at the most extreme values. The price came looking for the 0.5 of the Fib Retracement, in its first decline, which indicates a probable pattern of equilibrium in lesser timeframes and when analyzing the 5m an ascending wedge was found, an exhaustion pattern that usually breaks down, being able to boost the price down towards our buy zone. Finally, the 12 and 26 emus merged at 4h forming a strong resistance increasing the need for BTC to form an ascending bottom on the daily to have strength and break them.
I will divide my capital into 5 parts and distribute it in the range of 36400 to 35500 (strong psychological number) and have my STOP LOSS at 34198, just below the last strong resistance.
How to get out.
I execute my exits in parts, when I reach the first resistance zone, I leave with part of the profits and update my STOP LOSS at each bottom formed in lower timeframes. This guarantees profit and security in unstable times like these.
EURUSD - short term long- long term shortsell retracementsThis trade analysis is part of my diary. Please let me know if it was helful but also your suggestion for improvements. Like or comment would be great! Thank you!
EURUSD sell retracements. Pair has approached Yearly Pivot point and this triggered some buying power. I see weekly pivot point as a 1st target for sell entry and monthly R1 as second target for sell entry. On daily I believe that Stochastic need to finish upward cycle and the same applies for 1 h chart.
Overall EURUSD is quite bearish and we will see what the most volatile week of the month will bring us and what sentiment will be triggered after Yellen speech. I see more bears after speech and NFP and until then short covering.
GBPJPY - Buy pull back This trade analysis is part of my diary. Please let me know if it was helful but also your suggestion for improvements. Like or comment would be great! Thank you!
GBPJPY is rising towards resistance and 21 EMA on daily. As I'm a bull I would be waiting for any pull back from where I would add to the longer term portfolio.
On Daily chart Stochastic is about to start rising cycle and 21 EMA was previously breached so 55 EMA might be now a target for this pair.
1h chart suggest pull back from resistance and overbought Stochastic. Perfect buy would be around 160. so about 70 pips from the current price.
USDJPY profit taking at the resistance before bull moveThis trade analysis is part of my diary. Please let me know if it was helful but also your suggestion for improvements
Price is approaching resistance levels around 114. levels. I expect price to return to 112.8 levels before continue its way up.
At 114 levels there is a resistance and weekly R1 pivot point. Stochastic is overbought and currently riding 21 EMA on 1H chart.
On daily chart price broke through 21 EMA and continue it's way up. For USDJPY round numbers are very important and profit taking might take place at the important resistance zone.
I would rather see price continue to 55EMA and finish Stochastic cycle but profit taking might take place before that.
It would be important to note bearish move would not be driven by bears but rather less bull in the market.
Agressive approach would be legging in into sell trade with target of 112.8.
I like to add to my portfolio another long position at 113. - 112.8 levels so I would be waiting for the pull back.
AUDCAD H1 - Actually there is nothing [diary]I think I am trading my bias it is impulse on H4, so small correctio was good to take position. Small chance for inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder, but actually I do not believe in it - lack of new tops is strong bearish signal plus consolidation around 1.00 - I should not buy.