MARA Marathon Digital Holdings A Crypto Mining Stock to Watch
Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MARA )
“Bitcoin at $96K? It’s like Monopoly money growing into something real—fueling wealth and lifting stocks like $MARA. Let’s break down the crypto miner making waves in this dynamic market.”
After Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) surged to $96,000, Marathon Digital Holdings ( NASDAQ:MARA ) has positioned itself as a significant player in the crypto ecosystem. For investors, NASDAQ:MARA represents a unique opportunity tied directly to Bitcoin’s price movements and the operational efficiencies of crypto mining. Let’s dive into the details to evaluate its potential.
Current Market Data
Stock Price: Around $22.73
Market Cap: Approximately $4.65 billion
Earnings Per Share (EPS): -$0.42 (last quarter)
At first glance, NASDAQ:MARA ’s financial metrics might raise eyebrows. A negative EPS highlights the ongoing challenges of profitability in the volatile crypto mining industry. However, its substantial Bitcoin reserves tell a different story.
Bitcoin Holdings: A Key Asset
Marathon Digital holds 40,435 BTC, valued at approximately $3.88 billion at the current Bitcoin price of $96,000. This means that 83% of its market cap is backed by Bitcoin holdings alone. Such a significant asset base provides a unique valuation anchor in an otherwise speculative industry.
Book Value Breakdown
Total Bitcoin Value: ~$3.88 billion
Estimated Shares Outstanding: ~204.6 million
Book Value Per Share: ~$19.00
Compared to its stock price of ~$22.73, this suggests NASDAQ:MARA is trading close to its asset-backed value, making it an intriguing option for Bitcoin bulls.
Valuation Metrics
Traditional valuation methods struggle with companies like NASDAQ:MARA , given the negative EPS and the speculative nature of the crypto market. However, using a forward-looking EPS of $1.22 (an optimistic assumption), we can estimate:
Graham Number:
At a stock price of ~$22.73, NASDAQ:MARA appears fairly valued by this metric, though this assumes optimistic future earnings and stability in Bitcoin prices.
Operational Highlights
BTC Yield Growth: Marathon has reported steady improvements in Bitcoin yield, signaling operational success and increased mining efficiency.
Renewable Energy Investments: Recent moves to secure wind farms and other renewable energy sources could reduce mining costs and enhance profitability.
Scalability: With a solid foundation and operational upgrades, NASDAQ:MARA is well-positioned to benefit from further Bitcoin price increases.
Risks and Volatility
Crypto Dependency: NASDAQ:MARA ’s performance is tightly coupled with Bitcoin’s price. While this offers significant upside during bull markets, it exposes the stock to extreme downside risk in bear markets.
Regulatory Uncertainty: Potential changes in crypto regulations could impact mining operations and profitability.
Operational Costs: Fluctuations in energy prices and mining difficulty could strain margins.
Buffett’s Perspective: Speculation vs. Strategy
Warren Buffett famously avoids speculative assets like Bitcoin, and by extension, Bitcoin-focused companies. However, Marathon’s strategic moves—such as renewable energy investments—showcase a long-term vision that could appeal to more risk-tolerant investors.
Conclusion: Is NASDAQ:MARA a Buy?
NASDAQ:MARA ’s substantial Bitcoin reserves and operational improvements make it a compelling choice for investors who believe in Bitcoin’s continued growth. At a price of ~$22.73, the stock seems fairly valued relative to its book value and intrinsic potential. However, investing in NASDAQ:MARA requires:
A strong belief in Bitcoin’s future.
A high tolerance for crypto market volatility.
An understanding of the risks tied to mining operations and regulatory changes.
For those ready to embrace the volatility, NASDAQ:MARA offers an opportunity to ride the crypto wave with a company building for the future.
For more in-depth market insights and strategies, visit DCAlpha.net and stay ahead of the game. 🚀
Digitalassets
Bitcoin’s Journey to $108K?: Trends, Insights, and What’s Next"Crypto is like a rollercoaster: thrilling on the way up, terrifying on the way down, and you never really know when the ride ends."
1. Price Volatility: The CRYPTOCAP:BTC Rollercoaster
Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) recently hit an all-time high of $108,000 before pulling back to $104,000. Analysts are split—is this a correction or a temporary pause before another leg up?
Volatility is Bitcoin’s DNA. It’s what attracts both the thrill-seekers and the skeptics.
2. Institutional Interest Driving Supply Squeeze
Big players are loading up. Institutions are buying at scale, tightening supply, and fueling price surges. Riot Platforms, among others, continues stacking Bitcoin, signaling growing confidence in $BTC.
When institutions dive in, they’re not just buying coins—they’re buying the narrative of Bitcoin’s future.
3. Market Predictions: Wild Speculations
The Bitcoin crystal ball is hazy. Forecasts range from $160,000 to $500,000 depending on market conditions and legislation. Others warn of a potential dip to $100,000-$102,000.
Crypto predictions are like weather forecasts: everyone has one, and they’re rarely 100% right.
4. Criticism and Debate: The MicroStrategy Playbook
MicroStrategy’s leveraged Bitcoin buys have critics, like Peter Schiff, raising alarms about sustainability. Bitcoin believers counter with long-term growth arguments.
Love it or hate it, MicroStrategy’s strategy is bold. But bold doesn’t always mean bulletproof.
5. Whale Movements: Mt. Gox and Beyond
Massive Bitcoin transfers by entities like Mt. Gox are happening, yet the market holds firm. This resilience showcases robust holding sentiment among whales.
Whales are moving funds, but the waters remain calm. A sign of a maturing market?
6. The Bullish Sentiment on X
X users are overwhelmingly bullish. Many cite institutional adoption, CME gaps, and The crypto crowd is optimistic, and with Bitcoin, optimism often leads the charge.
7. Is Bitcoin Still Worth the Hype?
Bitcoin’s volatility is both its allure and its risk. Institutional interest, strong holding sentiment, and the halving provide reasons for optimism, but corrections are part of the game.
The question isn’t whether Bitcoin will grow—it’s how wild the ride will be.
My TOP10 project list - pick number 9/10This is my number 1 position since 2017.
I have always believed in this project and have never doubted about it.
Even with all the SEC chananigans my faith was always intact.
I had studied it for years and always known that one day it would be bigger than Bitcoin.
I have always knew that XRP is the one !
The fact that we recently broke the resistance (going back to ATH of 2018) is a very encouraging sign !!
Price is now forming a bull flag just above support (former resistance).
However we are still not out of the wood yet. In September 2016 price had broken out of the bullish wedge (in a similar way) like nowadays. However, it has been followed by a 120 days (3 month) collapse of about -65%, despite the breakout (from a penny to a third of a penny).
On a medium time horizon XRP is ready to go higher. Much higher.
The fact that the XRP bull run has been aborted in December 2020 by the fake law suit will fuel the power of the rise even further.
I see it rise to 16$ in march april 2025 and cross 50$ in october november 2025. I am being willingly conservative.
The time for XRP has come.
NUBANK NU Problem! Possible parallel channel break out.
- 1.618 Fib Ext & Channel target is $8.51 to $9.13
- Plucked positions at green circles for long term hold
- RSI continues to rise
- Above 200 day SMA (same as 40 week SMA)
- Failure to break above (which is very possible) will only lead me to make
another allocation on RSI trend line retest.
NUBANK Fundamentals look exciting
- Milestone of 80 million customers 2 weeks ago
- Brazil-based Nubank partnered Polygon to expand the reach of its Nucoin loyalty programme to its 80 million customers.
- In October 2022, the Nubank/Polygon announced the Nucoin token and launched a pilot run involving around 2000 users. Nucoin was designed to recognize customer loyalty and encourage engagement with Nubank products,
and by expanding the programme, the token could reach as many as 70 million customers across Brazil.
- David Marcus former Paypal CEO and former head of payments & crypto at META has been added to the NUBANK Board
- Nubank secured a loan of up to USD 150 million from the International Finance Corp in January 2023 in order to expand its operations in Colombia
- Nubank has a division in Colombia named Nu Colombia, which is a fast-growing credit card issuer. In August 2022, Nu Colombia made the announcement that the country's regulator had granted its proposal to form a financial
firm. This licence allowed Nu to add a full savings account linked to other credit products to its lineup of credit cards and e-wallets, as well as acquire deposits, a less expensive financing source similar to that used by large
banks.
- Approximately 35 percent of the Colombian adult population has no access to any formal financial services and are considered “unbanked,” according to the Colombian Banking Association. Some 79 percent of adults have no
access to credit cards. There is a HUGE market here for long term growth.
- Last 4 earnings reports have had surprised to the upside.
- Next earnings report is 15th May 2023 (key date for break of channel or rejection)
- We all know Warren Buffet holds a long position in Nubank.
DWAC Trump Ai Worldcoin Digital Acquisition TwitterThis one is a total crapshoot. ticker is historically pumped and dumped, my guess is that another catalyst is delivered this week to churn up mania buying again.
Then itll be out of gas for a while
be cautious if attempting to invest long term in Trump proxy-grifter corporations like this.
Bitcoin Aiming at $30,000!Bitcoin is currently trading below the point of control. The value area low is the next target at $30,000.
I will be looking to enter a long position if we sweep the lows and reclaim the lower purple line which is support.
Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT.
Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below!
Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Calculate Your Risk/Reward!
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Number Protocol is very Enticing NUM coin (Number Protocol) is definitely one to keep an eye on and or invest in as it's worth a lot more I think
From their website: "We are an open and decentralized network designed to ensure provenance for all types of creative works created by humans & AI
By making digital media traceable and verifiable, we are able to address critical issues in the digital media space, namely misinformation, copyright and royalty distribution"
It has usage and today it's been on fire Volume is up like 80% - MACD crossed Signal Line - trading above Moving Average - Up-trend via Daily chart (supertrend)
All good positive signs!
The secret tool that institutional investors use Recent news of potential attacks on wallet applications built on the Solana ecosystem, resulting in lost funds, has once again highlighted the long-running problems around the difficulties in securing hot wallets1. As a reminder, "hot wallets" involve storing private keys used to sign digital assets transactions, on a computer or phone connected to the internet. This provides users with a convenient way to send, store and receive digital assets. However, they can also be hacked… and the digital assets lost.
The emergence of institutional demand for digital assets has brought with it all kinds of questions around access, security, liquidity, and transparency. Equity, bonds, or commodity futures contracts are all traded on similar exchanges or through the same market makers and brokers. Digital assets, by definition, live in their own, newly created corner of the world and, therefore, accessing them can be difficult. The institutional world is asking for an all-in-one bridge that would facilitate access to digital assets while also managing cybersecurity risk, custody risk, liquidity and all the relevant operational risks on their behalf.
In the last two years, the institutional solution that strikes this fine balance has finally arrived in Europe under the name of physically-backed digital assets exchange-traded products ("ETPs").
Investing in digital assets – the access points
There are many ways to invest in digital assets. Each one comes with its pros and cons, these include:
direct holdings
- personal wallets
- account on centralised crypto exchanges
- hot or cold wallet with custodians
synthetic exposure
- futures or swaps
- futures backed ETPs
- structured products
physically-backed wrapped solutions
- close-ended funds
- physically-backed digital assets ETPs
This is a long list, right? The choice can be a bit overwhelming. This is why we have recently released our latest WisdomTree Insights, ‘A New Asset Class: Investing in the Digital Asset Ecosystem’. In this report, we discuss, in detail, the pros and cons of these many different access points for an institutional investor. The results of the analysis show that:
- Direct holdings are mostly kept in hot wallets, which are always connected to the internet and, therefore, open to cyber-attacks and hacking. Furthermore, they do not plug at all into existing trading or portfolio management systems.
- Physical exposures through direct investment stored with a custodian in a cold wallet are very tedious to set up correctly and manage daily.
- Synthetic exposures can be useful when leverage is needed, but they suffer from a large performance drag due to the negative roll yield of Digital Asset futures. This negative roll yield is very often higher than 10% a year, i.e. create a 10% per year drag on the performance.
- Close-ended funds suffer from high fees and extremely large discounts and premiums to net asset value. The tracking error and difference of those products are therefore very poor.
This leaves physically-backed ETPs, which appear to be the most robust and easiest to set up for a long-only institutional investor. They combine an easy operational setup and trading with security and efficient tracking. This is one reason why institutional flows in such products have significantly picked up as the product range has become more numerous and available via more venues.
Selecting the right digital asset ETP for your needs
Physically backed digital assets ETPs are new, though if you know how a gold exchange-traded commodity (ETC) works, then you understand the core concepts. When selecting between various ETPs, investors must consider the unique characteristics of each potential product. Investors could use the below holistic framework to approach their selection:
1. Security & custody
The number one concern when it comes to digital assets is cybersecurity. Crypto hacks make the news regularly, and so it is often front of mind for investors. However, in almost every single case of digital assets being stolen, the asset was stored in a hot wallet. The gold standard is storage in a cold wallet (i.e. where the private keys are stored somewhere that is not connected to the internet), managed by recognised custodians for institutional investors.
Having a safe custody solution and a robust process for approving any transfers is critical. Investors should pay attention to the custody provider, the storage solutions, their relationship with the crypto ETP issuer and the security practices for transferring coins in or out of the wallet.
2. Issuer & product structure
Choosing an issuer with recognised expertise in creating and running physically-backed listed financial products and a track record in managing their trading and liquidity, particularly in a crisis, can deliver important peace of mind to investors.
To mitigate the risk, it is also important to see if the issuer has a diversified business and range of products (not only digital assets) that can support periods where digital assets are down and out of favour.
3. Cost of holding
For physically-backed digital asset ETPs, all the direct costs should sit in the total expense ratio (TER) of the ETP. There should not be any other hidden costs. The lower the TER, the fewer coins the issuer takes and the more coins per share are left for the investor.
Trading costs are also part of the cost of holding. Secondary market bid/ask spreads are impacted by many factors: the liquidity of the ETP on the exchanges, the depth of the order book, volatility profile of the coins, inventory level, authorised participants' (APs) ability to source liquidity, and the number of market makers etc. For most efficient trading, it is always best to discuss with the Capital Markets team of the issuer to request an analysis when planning for large trades.
4. Lending & staking
For equity ETFs, investors have become familiar with security lending. This feature can also apply to digital assets ETPs – but not all. Essentially how this works is that the coins that should be held as backing to the product are lent out to counterparties in exchange for additional yield. This additional yield could subsidise the issuer, enhance the product's performance, or both. This activity can, however, be very risky with additional credit/counterparty risk vis-à-vis "unknown" entities the coins are lent to – not to mention the additional process risk with lent coins moving out of cold storage and into hot wallets. In some cases, this lent amount can be collateralised.
Certain physically-backed crypto ETP prospectus' allow for crypto lending, while others do not. Therefore, investors should check the details accordingly with the issuer.
Staking, on the other hand, is very different to lending. It is a unique feature of certain Digital Asset networks and, therefore, of certain digital asset ETPs. Staking needs to be enabled on blockchain networks that use a Proof of Stake consensus mechanism2. Overall, staking is less risky than lending, even if the reward for staking can be as high or higher. However, the operational setup of the issuer to deal with staking is an important criterion when selecting an ETP tracking a Proof of Stake asset.
5. Primary and secondary trading ecosystem
How the APs trade the underlying coins to facilitate the creation and redemption of the shares within a crypto ETP is critical for a due diligence process.
When completing due diligence for the AP process, it's key for the issuer to be able to present the subscription/redemption process in detail and make sure the workflow is understandable to the investors.
6. Operational considerations for digital asset basket products
Digital assets are the most at risk when they are on the move since they have to come out of cold storage and move to a hot wallet. In the case of ETPs that are tracking not just one digital asset but a basket of digital assets, rebalancings are necessary to ensure that weight remain in line with the investment objectives. A robust and detailed process around those basket rebalancings is therefore a must.
Sources
1 www.washingtonpost.com
2 For a brief explainer on staking, see: www.wisdomtree.eu
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
BTCUSD Short Target: $10,000 to $14,000
Why?
1) Gold and Silver appear to be nearing bottoms.
2) The use of digital currencies to escape the rules and regulations of national treasuries and governments is fading quickly. I imagine the US IRS hiring 87,000 individuals has some correlation to digital asset holdings and their use.
3) Contrary to bitcoin's stellar performance in the wake of the 2020 covid-related equities sell off, I am betting that price declines and volatility in the equities markets is bad for the price of bitcoin at this point in time.
4) Additionally, I believe non-professional and amateur stock traders with significant capital will find better results and more significant capital appreciation trading orthodox commodities like energy, metals, livestock, and agriculture.
5) Finally, I believe political pressure will result in legislation that allows economic superpowers to sanction cryptocurrency transactions similarly to how swift transactions are sanctioned during times of global conflict.
But, as always, this is just one opinion!
Bitcoin BTC/USDT 2HBitcoin BTC/USDT 2H
low volume, currently bears have control and dictating the pace of the asset on most time frames.
rsi and Stoch rsi of 59.87 and 48.60 fairly neutral for now,
I see a retest of 19533, twice used as support,(double bottom). If respected, triple bottom could see some upside
to 20544 a previous resistance and then to 21839 if the bulls can regain control.
Bear case break support and test 18896.
Every act of creation is first an act of destructionThe digital asset ecosystem as a whole has retreated from all-time highs of over US$3 trillion in November 2021. Now sitting just below US$1 trillion in mid-July 20221, the drawdown of -73% has been vertiginous for the recently initiated. However, this is not the first time that such drawdowns have occurred in the digital asset ecosystem. In fact, it is fairly common to see boom and bust cycles in the adoption of new technologies.
In many instances, new technologies or new industries emerge in a series of booms and busts. Let’s not forget the railway mania, canal manias or the dot-com bubble. Notice that the infrastructure is still left after the boom-bust cycle is complete.
This is a part of the entrepreneurial process, Schumpeter’s “creative destruction”, particularly when new technologies are involved. Initially, it is not always obvious what will work or where new markets lie. This only becomes clearer as the technology becomes more available and affordable to different population segments.
Below is a depiction of technology adoption S-curves, which show how new technologies spread across societies. Note that the process is rarely linear, with regression occurring at various points of the adoption process. Note also that the time taken for these technologies to reach close to full saturation is speeding up. Historically, they all related to some physical good – even the Internet involves fibre optic and submarine cables – and it took time for them to diffuse across societies.
The arrival of Bitcoin in 2009 marked the start of what has now been over a decade of entrepreneurial and technical experimentation with digital assets and distributed ledgers (‘blockchains’).
A key point here is that Bitcoin, and other digital asset networks like Ethereum, are at their core open source software. This means that they can spread very quickly over the pre-existing internet infrastructure and, being open-source, can be iterated on quickly by developer communities.
This would help to explain how digital assets have grown so quickly globally over the past decade. With cellular phones now ubiquitous, and the internet infrastructure now well established, digital asset and distributed ledger technology have found their way into many sets of hands at a rapid rate.
People have found and brought to market new use cases as they use these technologies to solve their problems. As this process has played out, there have been phases of booms and busts.
WisdomTree has summarised this history in approximately four phases so far, which are explained in-depth in the new report ‘WisdomTree Insights - A New Asset Class: Investing in the Digital Asset Ecosystem’:
- Bitcoin and ‘alt-coin’ cryptocurrencies, ending in the Mt Gox exchange hack
- Ethereum and smart contracts, ending with the bust of the Initial Coin Offering (ICO) bubble
- Defi and NFTs, built on smart contract networks and having receded from highs in late 2020 and late 2021 respectively
- Layer 1 smart contract alternatives, such as Solana and Cardano, which have experienced steep falls in the first half of 2022 broadly speaking.
So there have been many such boom-and-busts for the space over the years, a process whereby ‘what works’ is found, which then forms the basis for future development/adoption, and ‘what does not work’ ends in failure. This is characteristic of the space, which:
- has enjoyed a backdrop of relatively loose global monetary policy
- is ruthless in terms of competition due to the way that open-source software can be copied and altered (‘forked’)
- benefits (or suffers) from network effects which can quickly appear and disappear for these networks and decentralised applications
It would be unwise to suggest that the entire space will disappear once this latest bust is over and a new phase begins. More venture capital went into the space in 2021 than in the six previous years combined (US$25 billion)2. The ecosystem is more diverse than ever. The more pertinent questions will aim to uncover what new use cases might emerge and form the new opportunities of the next phase in digital asset adoption.
Sources
1 www.coingecko.com
2 www.theblock.co
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Digital Assets: don’t confuse rhinos for unicornsIt is important to categorise correctly. Marco Polo, when in Sumatra, thought that he had seen unicorns. “Very nearly as big” as the “wild elephants”, he wrote in ‘The Travels’. Sig. Polo in fact saw rhinoceroses.
All month long obituaries for Decentralized Finance (DeFi) have been written1 as exposure to the liquidation of Three Arrows Capital, a hedge fund, has become evident amongst many companies in the relatively new ‘crypto lending’ space (e.g. BlockFi, Celsius, Voyager Digital, etc). Not all horned animals are unicorns however – and not all companies operating on the crypto rails are ‘DeFi’.
Introducing the WisdomTree Digital Assets Taxonomy
To understand what is happening it is helpful to refer to a reading grid. WisdomTree has developed its WisdomTree Digital Assets Taxonomy for precisely this purpose. Outlined in detail in the recently released WisdomTree Insights - A New Asset Class: Investing in the Digital Asset Ecosystem the taxonomy:
- Classifies digital assets into distinct and easily understandable categories
- Assists in understanding the investment opportunity of each digital asset through the prism of the category that they belong to (that is the ‘use-case’)
- Allows one to build an investment case for each individual asset with its opportunities, risks and relevant metrics to monitor
DeFi’ is one of eight segments in the taxonomy. It is joined by other segments such as: smart contract platforms, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and the somewhat nebulous ‘miscellaneous’.
Turning back to DeFi, one can use the following definition: “Decentralized Finance offers financial instruments without relying on financial intermediaries as brokerages, exchanges, or banks by using smart contracts on a blockchain.”2
The most important part of this definition is the reference to: ‘using smart contracts on a blockchain’. Doing so creates a number of implications. First, one can audit the holdings at any point in time owing to the transparent nature of distributed ledgers (blockchains) and open source smart contract code. Second, the rules of the contract are very clear. Those who use these DeFi apps do so in possession of their public/private key pair, which means that they self-custody their assets and decide when and how those assets can and are used.
This is very different to the entities, like Three Arrows Capital (3AC), that have caused so much commotion over the past month.
DeFi is very different to Centralized Finance (CeFi), which is sometimes termed Traditional Finance (TradFi). The difficulty, at present, is that these two concepts are blurring as traditional financial companies integrate distributed ledger technology into their operations.
So what is ‘DeFi’ and what is not?
The collapse of Terraform Lab’s UST/LUNA was entirely linked to the digital assets space – though it could arguably be categrorised as ‘DeFi’ or not. Formally categorised as a ‘layer 1 smart contract platform’, according to the WisdomTree Digital Asset Taxonomy, prior to its collapse, the LUNA network was used to issue the UST ‘stablecoin’. In this way it crossed taxonomy segments – LUNA constituting a layer 1 network cryptocurrency and UST, a stablecoin. LUNA went from around US$41 billion in market capitalisation at the beginning of April 2022 then plummeted US$300 million by mid-May3. At its high the amount ofoutstanding UST was over US$18 billion. By 1 July 2022 one UST was trading at 4c on the dollar4.
The collapse of UST/LUNA left a number of entities exposed in the relatively new crypto lending industry. It was thought that 3AC had over US$200 million in exposure to LUNA though it is hard to know this definitively5. Entities like Three Arrows Capital do not appear in the taxonomy. That is because they do not issue their own token, nor do they run ‘blockchain’ infrastructure. Three Arrows Capital is (was) a hedge fund that took leveraged, long positions on a highly volatile asset class – and lost. The outcome is unsurprising.
A more interesting case study is crypto lender Celsius, which suspended withdrawals in the wake of the 3AC debacle citing, “extreme market conditions”6. The interesting thing about Celsius was that it issued its own CEL token. Lenders could opt to be paid back their interest in the CEL token, which has lost 88.5% of its value since its all time high7. As a consequence, the CEL token was categorised in the WisdomTree Digital Asset Taxonomy as a ‘DeFi’ token used for ‘Lending’. Celsius is (was) an incorporated entity in the United Kingdom8. It straddles the line between a centralised lending company coupled with its own crypto token.
Contrast this with crypto lender BlockFi, which began to cut headcount9 before revealing it was one of a number of companies involved in the liquidation of positions belonging 3AC10. BlockFi does not have its own token, nor does it really have much to do with digital asset networks except that it lent out clients’ digital assets to other intermediaries.
Another similar example is crypto broker Voyager Digital, which revealed that 3AC was unable to meet payments on a loan of 15,250 BTC, worth about US$305m, and US$350m of USD Coin (USDC).11 Voyager filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy on 6 July12. Market maker and lender, Genesis, may have hundreds of millions of dollars of exposure to 3AC.13 Neither entity has its own token – yet notice that Voyager was dealing in so-called ‘stablecoins’ (i.e. Circle’s US-regulated USDC). Even in the ‘stablecoin’ segment of the WisdomTree Digital Asset Taxonomy there is a lot of nuance.14
DeFi is dead, long live DeFi
The turbulent events of June and July have had an upside. The events have demonstrated the strengths of many decentralised finance (DeFi) applications (e.g. Compound, Aave, Maker), which are still running smoothly. Positions have been liquidated, when necessary, using automated computer scripts (‘smart contracts’) to conduct what can be a messy business. These applications have had 24/7 uptime, performed as designed and are globally accessible to anyone with a cell phone and internet connection. These applications provide transparency and auditability that are so often not present in the traditional financial system.
It is only by categorising cryptocurrencies, networks and tokens correctly that one can see where the real problems – and opportunities – lie. This is what the WisdomTree Digital Assets Taxonomy does. To brand all the insolvencies of the crypto lending industry as ‘DeFi’ would be akin to mistaking all horned animals for rhinos.
Sources
1 www.wsj.com ; podcasts.apple.com
2 en.wikipedia.org
3 www.coingecko.com
4 www.coingecko.com
5 www.wsj.com
6 blog.celsius.network
7 www.coingecko.com
8 celsius.network
9 www.reuters.com
10 www.ft.com
11 www.prnewswire.com
12 cointelegraph.com
13 www.coindesk.com
14 www.wisdomtree.eu
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Digital assets: ‘the government’ is not going to ban them2022 has seen a number of major public policy shifts for digital assets in the United States, United (UK) Kingdom and the European Union (EU). Far from banning digital assets, the new announcements are overt and positive signs that digital assets are being integrated into existing regulatory and legislative frameworks in different parts of the world. Now that the scale and benefits of digital assets are too great to ignore, governments in these countries are now playing catch-up with Switzerland and Singapore. The latter now serve as home to thriving digital asset industry clusters due to the clear regulatory and legislative positions established years ago.
The digital asset ecosystem is not the wild west that it once was. It is maturing, becoming safer and more could benefit as it becomes more regulated. This is the same process that many technologies go through as they become ‘part of the furniture’1. Using these networks will become second nature just as many don’t think twice anymore when using Global Positioning System (GPS) to navigate a city they’ve never been in before.
Scale that has become impossible to ignore
The digital asset ecosystem reached an all-time high of over USD$3 trillion in market capitalisation in November 20212. The benefits that this new technology brings – such as increased speed, accessibility and transparency – are becoming too great to ignore. At the same time the potential risks – particularly related to cybersecurity and criminal activity – are now well known.
The first major announcement came out of the United States of America (USA). In March, the Biden Administration announced the “Executive Order for the Responsible Development of Digital Assets”3. This is a finely-worded policy document that clearly lays out potential benefits and risks from digital assets then tasks various federal agencies to investigate and provide recommendations on how the USA can continue to be, “a global leader, growing development and adoption of digital assets and related innovations”, and, “defend against certain key risks, necessitate an evolution and alignment of the United States Government approach to digital assets.”
Not wanting to be left behind, the United Kingdom’s Treasury announced their intention to make the UK the ‘global crypto hub’4. While details are scant, some initial initiatives include, “legislating for a ‘financial market infrastructure sandbox’ to help firms innovate, a 2-day Financial Conduct Authority (FCA)-led ‘CryptoSprint’ event in May 2022, working with the Royal Mint on a Non Fungible Token (NFT) and an engagement group to work more closely with industry.”
Finally, the Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) proposal is snaking its way through various working groups in the European Parliament5. While the actual wording of this proposal is under constant review, if it continues to progress it will eventually be reviewed by Parliament, the European Commission and Council of Europe en route to providing the EU with a unified framework for regulating digital assets.
Governments deal with new technology in different ways
Each government will take a slightly different approach based on their own domestic political structure, how developed the digital assets industry is in their jurisdiction and other policy imperatives. The approach can take time to develop and can also evolve over time. This is no different to previous waves of technological change. Railroads went through a round of legislative efforts in the United Kingdom during the 1840s to raise safety standards of train carriages and lines6. So too did car safety in the United States due in part to the work of Ralph Nader in the 1960s7.
The most recent major technology wave, the Internet, is still playing out. One facet of internet governance, data protection and privacy, is handled very differently in the United States. Where there is no federal digital privacy legislation, to the European Union and its General Data Protection Regulation and Directive (GDPR). This didn’t happen overnight - it took two decades for the GDPR to be developed and implemented. Another example can be seen in the way that speech is regulated online. Section 230 of the US Communications Decency Act has provided online service providers with a safe haven for the liability linked to the conduct of their users on their platform. This was put in place in the 1990s and is part of the reason so many social media companies are US based. Contrast this with the EU Digital Services Act8, which is a relatively new initiative that will only make its way out of the EU apparatus in 2024 – around 30 years since the commercial internet arrived.
There can be many homes for the digital assets industry
For years a recurring question about digital assets has been “what happens if ‘the government’ bans it?”. It turns out that there are many governments – no single one chooses how new technology will be used worldwide. This is particularly the case for open source software in an internet connected world. Far from banning digital assets, many governments are now competing to be ‘the home’ of the businesses that use this technology. The governments who manage to strike the right balance of measures will be home to a new wave of technological change – including the jobs, tax revenue and well-being that come with it.
Sources
1 www.collinsdictionary.com
2 www.coingecko.com
3 www.whitehouse.gov
4 www.gov.uk
5 www.europarl.europa.eu
6 www.orr.gov.uk
7 www.nytimes.com
8 digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu
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DOTUSDT (Polkadot) making a move higher ?When (if) the crypto market starts to head back north or more accurately when BITCOIN starts heading north (BITCOIN is the engine that drives the cryptocurrency express), its worthwhile noting some of the more "established" coins are likely to present excellent buying opportunities. My list of assets include SOL (Solano) ADA (Cardano) DOT (Polkadot) XRP (Ripple) BNB (Binance coin) BCH (Bitcoin Cash) and MOF which is one of the assets owned by the Hyper Tech Group.
DOT from a technical viwpoint has found support from a rising trendline and may well be headed higher if we see BTC rally.
All bets are off with which way crypto is headed over the next month or so but there are bargains out there and the adventerous with a spare few dollars might want to take at any or all of the coins I've listed.
Usual rules apply when buying crypto assets. Only use money you don't mind losing. Personally, I think purchasing digital assets is a safer play than NFT's which I'm not convinced about.
Top pick 1/3 - XDCWhy I went in heavy on XDC:
1 Uphold recently announced they would add XDC to their platform
2 Stong marketing action behind the coin (national sports team)
3 It is an ISO 20022 coin
3 Technical analysis is showing strong set up
4 Very much undervalued coin (still small 800 million market cap)
5 Supported by the World Trade Organisation who are backing this technology
For all theese reasons I took a BIG position in XDC (13% of my portfolio - position number 4)
I even sacrificed other top projects, since the opportunity seemed very compelling.
On a technical side XDC has convincingly broken out against Bitcoin, out of a bullish wedge, after a 70% correction from ATH.
MACD has just crossed on the weekly time frame.
Volume is picking up.
All this indicators are bullish XDC
Most importantly if XDC is bullish, that is bullish for BTC and the overall cryto market.
In fact I do not buy all the bearishness in the market.
I will publish 2 further Top picks and show how I believe the Bitcoin domninance is giving us a hint on the overall digital asset market.