Bitcoin blows off the Goldman Sachs letterFor the last two days the price action trading on Bitcoin has been unexciting. Bitcoin has tended to swing up and down within a relatively short range. Which happens to be good for the spread strategy that I have been sharing with you the last few days.
These slow markets can be somewhat boring and even confusing until you look at them in several different time frames. The thing to look out for in a market like this is some sudden news which causes it to break either to the upside or downside. There have been quite a few attempts at market manipulation over the last couple of months not the least of which were the pronouncements by Jamie Dimon of the Bitcoin bubble, and the attempt by Goldman Sachs to its investors to put additional fear into the market to drive it down in order to create a new buying opportunity to fill their pockets while buying Bitcoin on the cheap. Even Goldman Sachs understands the Bitcoin is going to rebound hard and fast and wants it's customers to make some great returns.
The fact that the Bitcoin and Altcoin prices have largely resisted these attempts to spread fake news reveals an underlying strength in the market. This strength is primarily created by the true believers in crypto currency who have continued to hold their investments and invest additional funds when these sorts of opportunities present themselves. As I've shared with you previously using the chart, this correction is nothing new for the crypto currency sphere.
We have seen two previous declines to the Fibonacci 0.236 level at about $8739 which halted right in that vicinity. At the current time as I write this 17:28 UTC, we are at that level once again. Due to the previous history I believe that there is good reason to believe that this level may form a turning point for the price to return higher. Should this level be breached decisively with the closing candle than I'm looking for the $7927 area as the next support. Should that level fail to hold, would be looking at a return to the $6000 area.
If we trend up which is more in line with my expectation we should have little resistance until we reach the $9580 region and since that resistance does not look very strong, I think it's likely that we would then reach the next Fibonacci level at 0.382 or $10,314 Which would be my next target on the upside. Once above $9580, I believe that level will become new support.
Should we continue up after $10,300 (I would take some profits here) the next resistance point is about $11,600 (another profit point) where you can see the upper Yellow line drawn which has been on my last few charts. There is substantial resistance at $11,600 because if you look across that line you will see it forms a recent double top.
Additional reasons to look for this sort of turnaround to the upside by BTC, might be found in the fact that the RSI indicator is approaching the oversold region again, as well Stochastic RSI which is also going into the oversold region.
All statements and expressions I offer are my opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Information provided is not personal investment advice. Seek guidance from a professional investment advisor before trading or investing.
Dimon
The Dimon Bottom Hype Is OverCNBC has loved to refer the recent pullback in the SPX as the "Dimon Bottom" because CEO Jamie Dimon purchased roughly $26 million worth of JPM shares. However, it's not looking for those wanting to hold to believe in the recovery dream.
Whether investors want to believe it or not, the U.S. economic cycle is rolling over; and, considering the very high correlation to the SPX, J.P. Morgan shares will unlikely be saved.
Since 2014, I been warning of potential headwinds from energy exposure in U.S. banks. It may not cripple the sixth-largest bank in the world, but death by 1,000 cuts won't be any better for shareholders.
On Tuesday, JPM reported a 20 percent decline in trading revenues, as well as a $500 million increase in provisions (up 60 percent) due to their energy exposure. Fee revenues were down 25 percent.
Technically, the weekly chart is showing more downside is to come. Traders are watching a 20-weekly bearish convergence with the 50- and 72-weekly EMA. Price action is, also, currently below the 200-weekly EMA.
The inability to show support above this level and challenge $59.60 could poise further stress on shares.
Near-term, we'll see price action test the trend/price demand between $52.30-$53.50. A close below $52.30 would open up $48.3 and trend lower to $43.74.
If looking at Fib. retracements, a close underneath Aug 24, 2015 Black Monday low, 1.618 Fib. extension would stand at $37.54. This would be my target for Q2-17.
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