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Dip

Triangle predicted dip to 30k-38k range in MARCH. What's next?Breakdown from ascending wedge, a bearish indicator, was flawlessly predicted in March. What's next? We are now in another triangle. This pattern is more of a tossup in terms of predicting breakout direction -- but since it's happened after a downward trend, it's also likely to break DOWN. Hate to break it to you the predictions of a dip back to 20k are realistic. That said, these are very easy and reliable patterns to follow. If we have a legitimate breakout to the good, we're headed back to the 50s. Come on, bulls -- do your thing!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by notfadeavvay
Taking advantage of day gamblers and bagholdersDay Gambling & Bagholding makes up most of the activity in stocks I reckon. Not as big with Forex but still here. They allow people to optimise their returns. If markets were always fairly valued you couldn't really make more than 5% a year. And I say 5%, but to get there you'd have to not make any mistake. Perfection ==> 5%. No thanks! Day & swing gamblers, and bagholders, are here to transfer wealth. I describe how in this idea. I cut to the chase, I try keeping it as short as I can, but the subject does take a bit of explaining and I try to not skip important things. What do day gamblers do? - Exacerbate short term moves, move the price away from its natural longer term trend for example. - Hope to make money while paying to their brokers 25% of the money they risk as spread or commission. Roulette wheel takes 2.5%. What do bagholders do? - Sell out of their winners very quickly. The behavior of holding losers goes in pair with getting rid of winners. - And of course hold their losers. Bagholders that bought near the top do not add sell pressure to the pullback. - Bagholders also love to "buy the dip", when the price of something goes down, they buy. - Finally they sell at breakeven both when they hold a loser recovering, or when they are in the green and it pulls back. Can't really say for a fact this is what happened, but that's how I see it in a concrete example: FXCM says its traders average risk-to-reward is 1-to-0.57, on EURUSD in the period 2014-2015. That takes into account all those that have a high RR. FXCM typical gambler risk to rewards is probably closer to what I see on myfxbook, something ridiculous like 1-to-0.25. Even on Bitcoin that goes down 80% and up 8000% I can bet the typical gambler risk to reward is poor. People also "average down", sometimes they call it just that, sometimes they call it "dollar cost averaging". When they average down they increase their risk, all they care about is getting their money back. This is what we call a Martingale strategy. And yes, it is very stupid. And wipes out life savings once in a while. Academics polled people and found that in the general population - or maybe it was in a population of students - about 85% of people would rather take a small guaranteed win than a chance to get a much larger win (with of course odds multiplied by the amount were bigger than the flat win), and the exact same percentage would rather risk an enormous loss than simply take a loss. Prey ruminant mentality. They go for leaves (small wins), and they want to avoid losing at any cost because that means likely death. Compare this to a tiger that has a win ratio of 5 to 10% but gets huge meals providing several orders of magnitude the amount of calories he spent to hunt it, and they don't take silly risk, you'll never see a tiger jump in the violent river to go after prey. And this is why you have the famous: Wave A: A pullback with the majority still bullish (Mainstream media in the case of a bubble...). Bagholders that got in late are in complete denial. Bagholders that got in early enough often breakeven. Not an exact science, they do all kinds of things. I don't know many things that are 100% true in trading. Wave B: Bagholders are quite stressed out. You hear them scream things such as "DIAMOND HANDS", "LAST TIME THEY SAID", "THE BULL MARKET IS BACK". Price does not simply continue up in the presence of bagholders. It tops usually at 78.6% to 100% fibonacci retracement. Wave C: Most bagholders admit we are in a bear market. By the bottom of C, nearly everyone realizes (even the slow ones) that WE ARE IN A BEAR MARKET. Typical extensions are of 1, 1.618, 2, 2.618 (commodities). Wipes out the bagholders, in mainstream markets this is very often "the little guy" and they whine about manipulation (natural selection => great traders end up rich) It has always been like this and data shows they are the ones selling. But they still cry "manipulation" and whine and never learn. This is very typical. Not that entries matters that much, but avoiding getting sucked in "back to normal", and expecting lower prices, can help. I can point out plenty of other examples: Wave C has many names. Capitulation, "AAAAAAAAAAAH", make it stop god oh make it stop, this is BS, as well as when will it stop? When it stops is when it finds the majority of bagholders breaking point. Take a slow trend that went parabolic, the breaking point of the baggamblers will often be spread between the top and the start of the vertical move. This is not precise at all but to get an idea: In theory if 71% of the market is made up of bagholders and 71% of those "take their profit" we can estimate a retrace of 50% (71% of 71%). 90% of people are bagholders I think, but survival selection means the number will be lower in the markets. Day gamblers also have their trends and ABCS. No need to repeat what I already said about bagholders, much of the same applies to day day gamblers. So with much research, knowledge, practice, in theory one should be able to take advantage of day gamblers to get really good precise (enough) entries and exits. Thank you day gambler! Not only do they feed brokers ridiculous amounts (10 times the roulette wheel amount) allowing MY costs to go down, they also improve MY bottom in another way which is with better entries and exits. Thank you day gamblers! You truly are altruists. In this case... We can note that the price after bouncing between 1 and 1.618 dropped and bounced again on the "1" level. Bagholders breaking even? Rather than just buy at a vague price, it is in theory possible to use swing bagholders and day gamblers to have a very good entry. Does not always work. And no point being greedy here, it's already tight enough. Enter at a likely reversal price = better entry = better RR. Stop can be put way way far, further than the day gamblers capitulation, and even the swing bagholders, giving it many chances, and on a high timeframe it will still be a high payout for a small risk. The goal is not to look for perfection, but to progressively improve risk rewards thanks to others mediocrity and gambling mentality. On top, I repeat, of already all being at an advantage compared to decades ago, thanks to daygamblers taking the volatility in the teeth and cratering spread costs. Warren and me, deep down we do the same thing: In a concrete example, a trade I posted recently:
TVC:GOLDEducation
by MrRenev
Has the dip ended on Ethereum?!Good afternoon cryptomaniacs From this TA, i firmly believe that the dip is now over and Ethereum has recovered. Here are the following reasons why. 1. EMAs are still bullish and looking healthy 2. We have had 3 impulses down 3. Regular bullish divergence with a slight double bottom Above are the reasons why I believe the dip has come to an end. Another note we could have two options on how to trade this. Which are 1. Enter a trade now 2. Wait for price to return to the yellow box As always, keep the risk managed
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by MomentumTradeWA
Is increasingly likely that at 30k there will be no reboundAnalyzing the graphs of Mmiracle Viewer I realize how the wave of private long term investors (green) has at a certain point interrupted its rise, a situation that could provide a temporary rebound around 30k usd. In such case, if the green wave does not come of help to support the purchases it is plausible a continuation of the descent of BTCUSD towards the price of the closest support that is 17k, certainly this will be interspersed from short recoveries and similar attempts of ascent. The Sentiment market is also rushing and I doubt that when bitcoin has reached very low levels small investors will have the strength to raise its price since many of their resources have already been invested in cryptocurrency and in fact will be positions in loss. In the comments the detail of the green wave The fact that even other analyses see the BTC in net loss towards XMR and ETH support this idea of mine... we will see This idea is based on a signal generated by the advisor Marketmiracle, down on this page you will find the link to the page of signals of the advisor that you can see for free without any cost or registration
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MarketMiracleAdvisor
BTC: Last chance for survival.Every time a death cross happened (200/50MA cross) BTC has entered into a bearish cycle. During JULY 2017 bullrun, BTC was close to complete a deathcross, 50 and 200MA were getting closer, but after the "dip" a strong rejection happened and price recovered. That was BTC hope for nowadays price action once we fell from 64k, but then 30k flash crash happened and 200MA 1D (39k) was pierced. Can we go push prices above 200MA 1D massively and quick so 50MA moves higher quickly and draws away from 200MA avoiding a massive death cross? It's last BTC hope for resuming the bullrun, otherwise BTC will complete a wyckoff distribution following by an accumulation which may take months. Marketbuy or crash. NFA.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by diversionlulu
7
Bitcoin 200-Day EMA Rejection Follow-UpThe analysis I posted yesterday about a likely 200-Day EMA rejection played out nicely. While the pattern played out as predicted, the fundamental backdrop got worse significantly faster than expected. Because of this I decided to leave my stop-loss as is instead of adjust for each price level. With how firm the resistance is holding up and the volume that we're selling I feel that closing my position at the 38,500 level (which would be the new stop-loss according to the first post) would be premature. I will break down my decision making process here: Chart Description Yellow flags indicate the position on each chart that the 200 day EMA was broken. Hourly chart shows 4 clear rejections of 42,000 after breaking down and a potential bear flag. Daily shows the sharp 200-day rejection as predicted yesterday as well as an approaching death cross. Analysis The first interesting move is a quadruple top after a support break. A key insight here is the volume bars during each rejection: 1 - relatively low volume with a higher volume pump off the bottom of the channel. This is about the spot where I made the post yesterday. 2 - high volume selloff which coincided with bearish news out of China. 3 - low volume bleed and reversal 4 - high volume selloff followed by potential bear flag. The reason I say potential here is because the green intervals have decently high volume compared to what I like to see for a clear flag. Although it seems to have dropped in the recent hours, this is still something I would like to confirm. The second item I'm interested in is the approaching death cross on the daily chart. The red line indicates the 20-day EMA is getting dangerously close to the 200-day EMA that is the focus of this trade. This puts bulls in a position where the clock is ticking down and there is no momentum anywhere to indicate that it can break over the resistance and hold it. I do feel like there will be a battle though which is part of the reason I don't want to move my stop-loss prematurely. With all this being said, I stuck to the plan for the profit taking and closed a small portion at target #1. I will be looking to re-enter at the top of the hourly channel and if we confirm a break below the channel. Since this situation is fluid it is important to be unattached. Although I am not seeing much for bulls right now it is important to not ignore something if it does pop up. For this reason, price targets and stop-losses may be getting adjusted as needed. If the death cross occurs I will be lowering my price targets significantly. As always, don't be blind to risks. There is still everything that was mentioned yesterday especially the unpredictability of news. If there is bullish advances re-analyze the trade and adjust as needed. Do not fall in love with a trade even if it looks solid in the moment.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Seth-Goldberg
Aggressive buy zone (Buy the dips opportunity)I think this is the best time to buy aggressively. The price has been corrected to the Fib-0.618 and is on the multiple strong support levels. Do you prefer to trust social networks and follow rumors or take a look at the chart and get help from collective intelligence? Someone who claims to be our friend one day calls Bitcoin "my safe word" and questions its decentralization the next. Does he tell us in advance what he has in mind or he prefers to take the initiative? I think his words and deeds are contradictory. Let's go back to the chart: A falling-wedge pattern is forming on the price chart. The formation of this pattern exactly after an uptrend indicates the continuation of the trend. The strong support level (composed of sma-200, ema-200, Fibonacci 0.618 and lower trend line of falling wedge pattern) is just below the price chart. Take a look at the CCI(Commodity Channel Index), which is at the same time at its support level. I can wait for more signs, but this time I prefer to buy aggressively 'in the dip'. Note that bearish bias will increase if the price falls below this support area. ====================================================================================== This is not a financial advice, it's just my perception of the market situation. I wish you good luck.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BobRivera990
It's not a rollercoaster if it never goes downThis is a picture perfect 2017 scenario that we've been long overdue for. On the way up to the blow-off top in 2017, we touched the bullmarket support band 2 times. We have yet to touch it. The OBV or on balance volume is coiling up similarly, the RSI has been diverging similarly, and the recent price action has been dropping similarly. If there is a time to touch this and get it over with, I'd suggest it be now; however, I think there's going to be too many antsy folks to allow it to drop that far for now. So we'll just kick the can down the road and eat dirt later I guess... So 50k for now then up. And guess what, I'm still longing because 4-5B worth of futures expire on the 30th, and the majority of them are calls, and allegedly they're aiming for 80k. That's a stretch, but hey... buy BTC while it's cheap.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ungovernable
1