Bitcoin Correction with Bull RunThis is my analysis on the future of Bitcoin. In the past year Bitcoin has run up hard 3 times and each of the previous 2 times it has pulled back to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. On this run up it finally hit the psychological $10,000 mark and over shot to the $11,500 area. Additionally, Bitcoin is showing double RSI divergence and failed to complete a full market cycle on its last pullback to the $5,500 area. What we are seeing now, is many long term investors selling and taking profits and new money is flooding into the market due to the publicity of Bitcoin and these investors are getting trapped at higher levels forcing them to hold and also creating panic selling. It is my opinion that Bitcoin will finally pull back to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level before returning to its original bullish path. I still believe that Bitcoin will capture between 1% to 10% of the total (FX) foreign exchange market. The FX market has a daily volume of around 15 Trillion dollars so, if bitcoin captures 1% of the FX daily volume then Bitcoin's daily volume will be around 150 billion dollars per day which is 15 times greater than current volume. If we then apply some stupid simple math for evaluation purposes avoiding the full complex and boring model we would get a basic value of Bitcoin at about $150,000 per coin. If Bitcoin captures 10% of the FX daily volume then we're looking at a daily volume of 1.5 trillion dollars and that is 165 times greater than current volume. Monetarily speaking that would equate to Bitcoin being valued a around 1.65 million dollars per coin.
How could this happen you ask? Because the Whales and the Sharks are coming! It's just a matter of time and now the underground investors and traders have proven to the institutions and governments that this beast has value. With organizations like the (CME) Chicago Mercantile Exchange, (CBOT) Chicago Board of Trade and the (CFTC) U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission all planning on the implementation of a Bitcoin vs Dollar futures contract is enough proof to me that the "old money" considers Bitcoin to be a legitimate threat and a value at the same time. This move to implement a futures contract is a strategic play to stop the outflow of traditional investment money before it leaves the reservation and they loose control and revenues. Plan you trade and trade your plan and never risk money that you cant afford to loose! All comment welcome. Thanks!
