BUT WHICH DIRECTION IS THE TREND HEADED?It's not a simple question and REALLY matters ALL of the time, so, finding a simple answer is a neat tool to have in the snuff-toolbox..
Here's the quickest, easiest down-n-dirry method for getting closer to an answer.
If you look at the ranging areas of the chart. The in-between, sideways, messy, wish-it-didn't-exist areas and draw a rough shape tracing the progression, then you'll likely notice either a "U" shape or an "n" shape (not everywhere, but at least one prominent one per section/timescale). You'll know if when you see it. Keep practicing and don't force it.
The U Shape can be reliably trusted to identify a Bullish trend, whilst the n Shape does the same when there's blood about.
Sound silly, right..
But it works.
And now you know..
Direction
EUR/USD - JUST A CORRECTION?
The price unfolds as previously forecasted.
Currently we finished 5 subwaves in the upside that formed the corrective Wave A, as part of the Wave 4 from the bigger 5 Waves on the downside now.
We will expect the corrective Wave 4 to continue to unfold, before we can say for sure that the Wave 5 impulse started on the downside!
See the chart for a more clear idea of what I'm talking about. Thank you!
From a fundamental perspective, there are a number of factors that are weighing on the euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future, which makes the euro less attractive to investors. Additionally, the eurozone economy is facing headwinds from the ongoing war in Ukraine and rising inflation.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair is trading below the 200-day moving average, which is a bearish signal. The pair is also trading below the support level of 1.0832. If the pair breaks below this level, it could decline to the next support level of 1.0609.
However, there are some technical indicators that suggest that the EUR/USD pair could be bottoming out. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold levels, and the stochastic oscillator is crossing over from oversold territory. This suggests that the pair could be due for a rebound.
Overall, the EUR/USD exchange rate is facing a number of headwinds from a fundamental perspective. However, there are some technical indicators that suggest that the pair could be bottoming out. Traders should closely monitor the price action in the coming days to see if the pair can break out of the current downtrend.
I hope this post is helpful.
This analysis represents only my personal thoughts and knowledge at the date it is posted.
This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice.
You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information.
Any feedback is encouraged and appreciated. Thank you and have a nice day!
My today idea of Gold's possible moves 07062023Gold prices fell at the end of last week’s trading to give up their intraday gains as a result of the rise in the US dollar after the US jobs data, which came in better than expected, witnessed the lowest level at $1944 per ounce, after recording the highest at $1982.
Technically, gold prices begin to press on the pivotal support floor of 1945 located at the Fibonacci correction 50.0% as shown on the 4-hour chart, and we find continuous negative pressure from the simple moving averages that returned to pressure the price from above.
With the return of trading stability below the main resistance of the current trading levels, 1977 correction of 38.20%, that increases the possibility of resuming the bearish trend, and we are waiting to witness a clear and strong break of the 1945 support level, which facilitates the task required to visit 1932, the first target, knowing that the official target for the breach of 1945 is located around 1918 and 1913 correction. .
Rising again above 1977 nullifies the activation of the bearish scenario completely, and gold recovers, heading to re-test 1996 and 2000, respectively.
DXY: PREPARE FOR THIS !!! Guys listen now, DXY is sitting on a veeery delicate level and any significant move will heavily determine the direction of every USD involved pair.
So first let me put down the important indicators and levels:
1. On 103.800 lays Daily 50EMA right above the current price
2. On 104.100 lays Weekly 50EMA slightly above the current price
-We can say that they are pretty damn close
3. Price is sitting on current major S/R zone
4. There is also 61.8 % fib level of previous leg
After clearing this you see why the price is in a very tight zone so this week we will most likely see a breakout on either side so get ready because we might see some pretty good moves after that.
So what's my POV: I expect to see a bullish breakout and continuation, because everything suggests that in my opinion. Of course we can see a bounce from the current level and continuation to the downside.
I will make sure to update everything here ;)
$XBI target zone if, IF, risk-off returnsOn the weekly chart, price seemed to be breaking down from a channel and then reversed course to move higher. If this is a rubberband reaction and risk-off resumes, then this monthly frame shows a 2nd leg down that could move to 62-58.
Alternatively, if risk-on stays the course to continue January's rise, then price moves up to the 20ma, 96-100 area. Watch daily chart to see if price stays over 87-88.
Current resolutionAside of the usual things ie waves & levels, being on a given resolution, mainly we are interested in the direction in which trading activity develops (so called, trend, gradient, slope etc). It is not exactly necessary if you follow a vehicle on every resolution, this way you always know the direction by simply understanding whether we are in low res buying wave or we are in low res selling wave. Still it's useful, especially for spotting in real time how the trading activity reverses, how a low res wave ends (or not) .
All these higher high and lower lows, mark ups & mark downs, trend lines (omg), "value" moving up or down, it was all close but not exactly on point.
A trend aka tendency has not much doing about movement per se, it's all about a certain sequence of events.
After numerous logical experiments, you will arrive to the following minimalist understanding. First let's define 2 things: long event and short event.
Long events:
1) a level gets positioned as support;
2) a resistance gets cleared;
Short events:
1) a level gets positioned as resistance;
2) a support gets cleared;
When you see a sequence of 2 unidirectional events in a row, it means you have a tendency = trend.
1) when you see multiple long events in a row (2 is enough), this is up trend;
2) when you see multiple short events in a row (2 is enough), this is down trend;
3) when there's no sequence, this is "everything else";
Everything else is in fact a loosely defined case. Yes by definition it's the iteration between long & short events, and it works well, however this kind of activity may 'invite" emergence of very short lived trends (2 unidirectional events).
That tells us this:
1) While being in an up trend, levels are expected to be positioned as supports and then hold when approached by the exhausted selling waves.
2) While being in a down trend, levels are expected to be positioned as resistances and then hold when approached by the exhausted buying waves.
3) While being in a "everything else" situation. You expect an iteration of long & short events.
There are clues that can help in dealing with "everything else" cases, provided by comparative analysis between positioned level and waves.
Comparison between levels is made the same way as with waves. Best of 3:
1) Price: distance between front & back parts of a level. Narrower - stronger;
2) time: a level that formed later in time is always stronger;
3) volume: you compare the current amount of volume gathered & consumed during positioning & testing processes. Higher remaining volume - stronger level.
This way you can take 2 levels and obtain a binary answer which level is stronger. Now, you can compare the current level (the last level that was positioned) and the previous level positioned in the opposite direction. While being in "everything else" situation, in general, that'll mean comparing a support below and resistance above. Prices tend t go where it's easier.
Yet another thing you can do is to compare waves as explained in "Wave exhaustion", but this time you'll be comparing current wave and the previous wave in the opposite direction. While being in "everything else" situation, in general, that'll mean comparing the current wave with the previous wave, and that wave will have the opposite direction. Comparing these 2 waves, you'll now in which way the order flow is stronger.
On the chart, you can see a red arrow, a bar that produced 2 short events in a row: positioning of 3896 as resistance and clearing the support at 3890.
Btw, another thing you can do is comparing levels in the same direction while being in a trend. When the're such sequence that levels in the same direction become weaker and weaker, usually it means that the overall trend is loosing motive strength.
That's the info you can gain being on a given resolution, without having any other data.
2Q US Non Farm Payroll record for GoldHi,
For those who are seeking US NFP data to enter on Friday tomorrow, you can see my chart to do the analysis for your direction. I will remain neutral for now. Please help me by liking my idea if you already get what you want. I really appreciate it.
Thank you very much.
VXX - At crossroads
Up against the trendline resistance that has acted like a wall going back to March 2021.
Break on either side should mark a key direction change in the market.
If it can't move above 24.31 soon, growth stocks and indices will rally (atleast for a short time)
Takeaway: look for bearish signal on 4H before flipping side. Trend break shou ld present great long opportunities.
GOLD direction prediction and analysis.Here is my idea by using SNR and SND. (Only fresh break)
Chart Pattern : Possible Head and Shoulder (HNS)
If there is Double bottom formed on H1 for today then HNS is Possible targeting Resistance zone around 1806.00. Which also there is Supply order block.
If the Supply exceed the demand in the zone then the next target possibly back to previous BUY ZONE.
its just my analysis for direction using for scalping and intraday. Make sure to watch lower timeframe such as H1 and M30 for double confirmation on price reversal/rejection.
Hope this would help and wish you have a nice trade day. :D
what tells the true story? is it volume? or is it wicks? here i break down the actual sentiment and how to look at price, if considering wicks you will start to get confused because you'll see most times wicks pierce the recent low or high. which is okay however, that doesn't mean that it broke structure (don't get me wrong, maybe on a different TF it did but this is where the confusion comes in). volume tells the real story on what price is doing. wicks just tells you where price went for the time being which creates the high or low of each day, 4h, 1hr, etc. so sticking to volume will help you find the direction of the market much clearer
US30 4H (Waiting to choose the direction)Us30, now at the sensitive price because will choose the direction and this direction will be strong, still know the direction is unknown but technically chart say to us is upward,
But we have bad news about Afghanistan, Kabul,
So you should take care about it.
Bitcoin and its latest moves.Bitcoin as a cryptocurrency, has been taking a long run from prior levels, being days on the downside. To avoid the mistakes of oscillators, a better and more secure technical indicator was needed. This will avoid going against the trend, whos is very clearly identified. Also, corrections are made, even when a change of direction seems to be showing up. The plot will clear the way for a nice true signal, which at the same time is very profitable.
While still on the making and testing, so far it has provided excellent results. The more it runs, the better testing results with any instrument or market out there, as an universal tool to get things done the right way, mostly the safe and profitable way.
Keep an eye on it for the latest release and innovations to it. For educational purposes only and not intended as a financial advice of any kind.
BTC about to explode, ¿where is the direction? Possible TargetsBTC currently trading inside a big triangle formed since 17 days ago, we are now in the decision moment because is a symetrical triangle, this has 50% chances to break up, and 50% chances to break down.
We had a false breakout yesterday, breakout without volume and we went again inside triangle.
To confirm the direction we need to see a big volume income and a clear breakout.
Levels to watch:
Above: 39500 - 42000
Below: 36160 - 34075 -32500
Trade safe.
Engineer Alexa.
Bitcoin direction!The zone marked on the Bitcoin chart determines the direction of the price movement
Pay attention to the direction price goes out of this range and make the right decision based on it!
be sure the Altcoins will get same direction.
Please Like, write a comment, and share with others!
Follow me on twitter:
twitter.com
From the Watchlist. IBRX. Might be a mover.IBRX somehow doesn't give much chart data from trading view, but it could possibly be entering a post-correction phase.
It has been on my watchlist and it looks like it could have some ideas about the direction it wants to go.
I see three possible scenarios:
- 1) buyers begin to notice the stock and it goes up like a frickin rocket. (best)
- 2) buyers don't really notice it, it and our current rally gets sold into. We see more consolidation, possibly missing the rally that breaks out the trend. (cautious)
- 3) This is a false rally, the company is failing. Price falls to 13, maybe 10. (worst)
The reversal pattern it put in, to me, is a very legitimate one I see a double bottom and a higher high. That's like rice and beans, you can probably live off of it. Everything I know is telling me to buy, but as I am fairly new to stocks, it's the things I don't know that are keeping me out at the moment.
But, that wedge does make me think of cheese. This game is fun. It's like spy vs spy. Hard to tell if I'm setting the mousetrap, or if I am the mouse. But, darn it if it isn't a little exciting.