DIS
DIS - Upward channel or Rising wedge breakdown short from $108.5DIS was going higher within an upward channel or rising wedge formation. It seems broken down the pattern, retested the broken support and getting ready to rollover. It would be a good short, If it breaks below 50 day MA, and for trade we would consider $110 May-17 Puts
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- February 23, 2017
Pattern/Why- Upward channel or Rising wedge breakdown
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $108.50 and MA-50
Option - $110 May-17 Puts
Exit Target Criteria- $104.13 & lower
Stop Loss Criteria- $111.07
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
0-Cost Options Strategy ahead of earningsSOUND BUT UNEXCITING FUNDAMENTALS
Consensus is favorable on aggregate: Buy recommendation, +12.75% target upside.
Numbers are compelling (5-yr rev growth +6.63% and ROE +20.35%) but growth has been slipping, esp. in TV.
Valuation is un-demanding at a P/E of 17x (now less expensive than the market?)
TECHNICALLY ON A DOWNTREND BUT COULD BE REBOUNDING
DIS has been on a downtrend since the double-top of Aug/Nov 2015.
The long-term (M chart) is still clearly negative.
The medium-term (W) shows a series of negative cross-overs and a H&S formation.
But lately the stock has been rebounding with the market and the short-term picture (D) is turning positive.
A close above the 97.00 (MA200) would confirm the positive turnaround.
A close below 90.00 would confirm the negative trend and potentially take us towards the H&S target of 84.00.
EARNINGS AND GUIDANCE WILL BE A KEY CATALYST
What could propel the stock higher are the earnings and guidance from DIS.
STRATEGY: 0-COST EXPOSURE TO UPSIDE IN CASE OF BREAKOUT
Buy Nov 18 2016 $98 call to play the breakout = $0.34/share
Sell Nov 18 2016 $90 put to finance the synthetic long = $0.33/share
Best-case scenario: Stock breaks out ==> Make $ on the call or convert
Worst-case scenario: Stock tanks ==> Go long a quality long term holding close to the 52w low.
DIS EARNINGS PLAYSDIS announces earnings today after market hours, so look to put on any setup before New York close.
Here are the two "classic" setups:
Feb 19th 82.5/100 short strangle
Probability of Profit %: 74%
Max Profit: $127/contract
Buying Power Effect: Undefined
Feb 19 77.5/82.5/100/105 iron condor
Probability of Profit %: 72%
Max Profit: $86/contract
Buying Power Effect: $414
Notes:
You can naturally play with the width of the iron condor wings to increase/decrease buying power effect and/or max profit potential.
As always, look to take the setup off at 50% max profit post-earnings or a side at or near max. In the event a side is tested, look to roll the tested side out for duration to a later expiry and then sell an oppositional side against the rolled side for a credit that exceeds the debit paid for any roll and look to exit the rolled out setup for scratch (total debits paid minus total credits paid = 0) and to redeploy your buying power elsewhere. They are, after all, meant to be quick and dirty plays ... .