OMI BUYING PRESSURE STRONG SUPPORT 4HR CONTINUATIONOMI is holding nicely, fibonacci levels look to continue, with the next target being .0079985 - .0095849
gaining momentum to break previous high at .0131 after that see you on the moon #MoonTalk
all contingent on BTC due to it covering nearly have of our 2.2 trillion dollar market.
Not Financial Advice
Disney
$DIS back on (weekly)Recently made good money trading Disney and looking to re enter a trade
Weekly MACD ready to cross , nice cupping base.
Purple line is Annual AVWAP , notice the close above AVWAP last week followed by a retest with buyers stepping in keeping price above so far...Bullish
11/19 $195C looks like an idea depending on OPEX price action tomorrow
In Depth on DIS(time frame analysis)I will go in depth on why I believe DIS is an amazing play but will do so by review each time frame one by one. From 15min-Daily-Weekly. We will start with the 15min as I believe that has more expressing to be conveyed.
► LONG 15min Chart(Intraday)
I was already bullish on DIS so I wanted to watch the intraday to make sure this stock wasn't demonstrating a false signal and I believe we have gotten signals indicating to go long. Today we have seen DIS go below a VWAP support that was vital to predicting its future direction but since we have gotten bull signals from the VSLRT and the Stupid Willy, I did not consider this a breakout. Instead we have seen the stock rise and not only close above the VWAP support but the 20sma, which lays within the Bollinger Bands. Next we need to see DIS close above the VWAP resistance I displayed that currently rest at 185.22.
► LONG Daily Chart(Intermediate)
Nothing too notable about the daily chart other than that it has displayed bullishness via the VSLRT indicating that we are seeing volume support the uptrend that we are currently having. Not only that but the Stupid Willy is demonstrating the conventional bull signs such as rising Williams %R and bullish momentum.
► LONG Weekly Chart(Long term)
There is something very bullish that can be seen via the weekly chart and that is the squeeze signal given by the Bollinger Band Width. Basically this signal occurs when we are about to get a big spike in volatility to either the downside or upside. Since the other time frames are bullish while the weekly also displaying bullishness via the VSLRT and the Stupid Willy I think we are about to see a massive up-move for DIS. This is important to note because it is vital to see whether stocks or taking the path of least resistance or are fighting a trend.
$DIS -- Methinks the Mouseketeers are about to #printI'm too tired to post any clever witticisms but Disney looks primed to run to 185, especially if it quickly turns 180 into support this week. Feels like there's a little bit of pump left in SPY/QQQ (mostly due to to Tech) before big money turns back to pumping IWM (see: SPRT, BBIG...)
Anyway, DIS 180c/185c should be fun to play this week (9/17 and 10/15 viable IMO). Quicker fingers can probably flip 200c's as well if things get really bullish.
night night kiddos.
btw I tried ketamine and my review is: "eh, not for me."
bye!
$DIS Weekly Disney appears to be forming a rounded bottom implying a move to the upside - PT $200 by mid to late OCT. Williams %R and MACD showing bullish confluence. Call flow hot with a buyer watching for a break above the AVWAP at $181.8.
Like the idea of the 10/15 $195C and 180/175p credit spreads.
$DIS Upcoming earnings estimated November 11, 2021Upcoming earnings estimated November 11, 2021.
Disney's FY 20 revenue was distributed as follows:
28.39B Digital Media
16.5B Parks, Experiences and Products
9.64B Studio Entertainment
16.97B Direct-to-consumer and International sales
Digital Media generated nearly 40% of total revenue and double any other source of revenue.
The revenue during the latest twelve months ending June 30, 2021 was $63.591B, a 8.9% decline year-over-year.
The revenue during the latest quarter ending June 30, 2021 was $17.022B, a 44.51% increase year-over-year.
Disney’s 2021 third-quarter Parks, Experiences and Products revenue segment jumped 307.6% to $4.3 billion, up from $1.06 billion during the same period last year.
In each of the previous five quarters, Disney has reported a loss in operating income in the segment because of the Covid-19 outbreaks.
Current reservations are above third-quarter attendance levels. However, recent increases in Covid-19 cases have prompted some group and convention cancellations.
$DIS Disney primed for a big move to the upside. This is a texbook chart. It has completed the 4th and is about to commence the 5th wave.
All MA's are coiled and it has been trading in a very tight range in the last couple of days, that's very bullish.
MACD is bullish (both histogram and cross).
Disney’s ESPN sports-betting deals could net $3 billion,therefore I'm pretty sure we'll see $300 in the near future.
$DISDisney looks like it’s ready for its next move on the daily chart.
- Currently sitting on a volume shelf
- About to break symmetrical triangle
- Moving averages coming together
- RSI above 50.
- MACD curled.
- Price closed on a bullish engulfing
You couldn’t get more bullish than this.
Keep this on your watchlist.
- Factor Four
DIS - Where from HereDisney has been on my watch-list for a while. During the pandemic because of the Disney+ services and as a re-opening trade with regards to the Theme parks.
The headlines around the Delta variant clearly has muted the price action of DIS quite a bit and the stock has been trending sideways since topping out in March this year.
Fundamental Highlights:
P/E at 82.5 seems very high but then the theme park closures has impacted earnings and thus driven the PE up
Rev. per Share has been strong thanks to Disney+ service demand during the pandemic
Capital Spending per share remains at the 5y average which in my eyes is solid given the pandemic
Positive FCF shows that the company is able to generate cash even if the parks are closed
Dept / Equity seems solid and not overly leveraged
Disney has not payed dividends since 2019 which is understandable and acceptable
Conclusion: The fundamentals seem solid which is confirmed by current analyst ratings and a price target of $210 according to IBKR analyst consensus.
Technicals
Since the highs in March 21 the stock has retracted and bottomed out around $170 with multiple confirmations at that level
Formation of a descending Wedge formation, indicating a positive outbreak potential
Narrow regression band indicates indecisive trading
Failed wedge breakout in the Aug 15/16 trading session, however lower leg has confirmed support
RSI neither overbought nor oversold confirming doll-drum territory
MACD show no clear indication either and has not done so since May
Resistance band around 190-195
Conclusion: DIS seems bound to make an outbreak of the current pattern in a not too distant future. There seems to be strong buying interest in the $170 area. A breakout above the wedge into the resistance level of 190-195 seems likely. Further upside possible but it will require momentum which could be helped by a positive earnings Q2/Q3 earnings report.
My Strategy
Seeking exposure around current levels, might be early but I am confident with the current support levels
A combination of Long Stock and a Risk Reversal
Stock @ Market, SL 170 / TP 209
Risk Reversal Long C Jan 22 210 / Short P Jan 22 150
All feedback, suggestions and input is highly appreciated
*** Disclaimer: I tend to use both Fundamental and Chart Analysis for the evaluation of my investments. I act as an investor, not a trader with a 9 months or more time horizon. The above represents my personal opinion. I write these postings as a trade log for myself. Conduct your own research before taking any positions and do not invest what you can't loose***
WALT DISNEY:FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS+PRICE ACTION|NEXT TARGET|LONG🔔Over the past 18 months, investments in the Walt Disney Company have been very risky. Virtually every aspect of the company's business has been severely limited or even halted at various points because of the pandemic. At present, it appears that Disney's recovery will be a mixed success.
Disney management made the right decisions early in the crisis when it took steps to shore up its balance sheet by suspending dividends and raising new capital and accelerating the expansion of its Disney+ streaming TV service. But risks remain, and it's worth examining whether they can be overcome to help the stock outperform the S&P 500 index over the next 10 years, as it has in the past.
The irony of the recent conflict between Disney and "Black Widow" star Scarlett Johansson has not gone unnoticed by investors. The award-winning actress sued Disney, claiming that her contract was breached when the company released the long-awaited movie for purchase on Disney+ at the same time as the theaters.
Since the lawsuit was announced, Disney's stock price has fallen for five straight days, dropping nearly 4 percent, a far greater potential blow to profits than what Johansson claims she did not receive in compensation for her work. The company's streaming service, considered the only shining star during a painful pandemic when user numbers exceeded expectations, has suddenly become a new and very public risk.
In the first six months of 2021, Disney's share of the direct-to-consumer media and entertainment segment grew 65% year over year. This was driven in large part by growth in the Disney+ segment. As of April 3, the company had increased the service's paid subscribers to 103.6 million in just 18 months after its launch. However, growth began to slow in the last quarter, which disappointed investors.
Now the situation has become even more complicated as Disney argues that the lawsuit has no merit. But even if the company wins the dispute on legal grounds, it could cause negative publicity among movie fans and also change the company's film distribution strategy.
The streaming strategy and its potential to boost future profits have received much publicity since the launch of Disney+, but the overall business still relies heavily on Disney theme park operations. Before the pandemic, the parks segment generated 38% of revenue in the fiscal year ended Sept. 28, 2019. In the first six months of 2021, that share of total revenue dropped to 21% as the parks opened slowly and with some capacity constraints.
Now the delta variant is causing a new spike in COVID-19 cases. As a result, Disney has reinstated the mandatory use of masks for all theme park visitors in the U.S. over the age of 2, and business recovery in the parks has become more uncertain. Another area of the company's business affected by the pandemic condition is, of course, Disney's cruise business. Undoubtedly, the risks to the company remain as long as the pandemic continues.
Investing in any stock involves risks, and those risks are unique. The company currently believes it will operate at a Disney+ profit in the fiscal year 2024, but this is not a given. Without knowing how the rest of the business will evolve, it is difficult to determine a short- or even medium-term stock valuation.
However, the company has proven that it can succeed over the long term. As mentioned earlier, it has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 Index over the past decade.
At some point, the pandemic will officially end. Also, at some point, Disney will feel confident enough to either recover its dividend or use its excess cash flow to invest in the business -- or a combination of both.
Long-term investors should feel confident that the brand will remain strong enough to support any future direction of the business. That brand and the diverse businesses built around it are what make an investment in Disney worth the risk in a portfolio built for the long term. The company will report its fiscal third-quarter earnings today, and then investors will have an update on the success of all segments of the company.