WALT DISNEY:FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS+PRICE ACTION|NEXT TARGET|LONG🔔Over the past 18 months, investments in the Walt Disney Company have been very risky. Virtually every aspect of the company's business has been severely limited or even halted at various points because of the pandemic. At present, it appears that Disney's recovery will be a mixed success.
Disney management made the right decisions early in the crisis when it took steps to shore up its balance sheet by suspending dividends and raising new capital and accelerating the expansion of its Disney+ streaming TV service. But risks remain, and it's worth examining whether they can be overcome to help the stock outperform the S&P 500 index over the next 10 years, as it has in the past.
The irony of the recent conflict between Disney and "Black Widow" star Scarlett Johansson has not gone unnoticed by investors. The award-winning actress sued Disney, claiming that her contract was breached when the company released the long-awaited movie for purchase on Disney+ at the same time as the theaters.
Since the lawsuit was announced, Disney's stock price has fallen for five straight days, dropping nearly 4 percent, a far greater potential blow to profits than what Johansson claims she did not receive in compensation for her work. The company's streaming service, considered the only shining star during a painful pandemic when user numbers exceeded expectations, has suddenly become a new and very public risk.
In the first six months of 2021, Disney's share of the direct-to-consumer media and entertainment segment grew 65% year over year. This was driven in large part by growth in the Disney+ segment. As of April 3, the company had increased the service's paid subscribers to 103.6 million in just 18 months after its launch. However, growth began to slow in the last quarter, which disappointed investors.
Now the situation has become even more complicated as Disney argues that the lawsuit has no merit. But even if the company wins the dispute on legal grounds, it could cause negative publicity among movie fans and also change the company's film distribution strategy.
The streaming strategy and its potential to boost future profits have received much publicity since the launch of Disney+, but the overall business still relies heavily on Disney theme park operations. Before the pandemic, the parks segment generated 38% of revenue in the fiscal year ended Sept. 28, 2019. In the first six months of 2021, that share of total revenue dropped to 21% as the parks opened slowly and with some capacity constraints.
Now the delta variant is causing a new spike in COVID-19 cases. As a result, Disney has reinstated the mandatory use of masks for all theme park visitors in the U.S. over the age of 2, and business recovery in the parks has become more uncertain. Another area of the company's business affected by the pandemic condition is, of course, Disney's cruise business. Undoubtedly, the risks to the company remain as long as the pandemic continues.
Investing in any stock involves risks, and those risks are unique. The company currently believes it will operate at a Disney+ profit in the fiscal year 2024, but this is not a given. Without knowing how the rest of the business will evolve, it is difficult to determine a short- or even medium-term stock valuation.
However, the company has proven that it can succeed over the long term. As mentioned earlier, it has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 Index over the past decade.
At some point, the pandemic will officially end. Also, at some point, Disney will feel confident enough to either recover its dividend or use its excess cash flow to invest in the business -- or a combination of both.
Long-term investors should feel confident that the brand will remain strong enough to support any future direction of the business. That brand and the diverse businesses built around it are what make an investment in Disney worth the risk in a portfolio built for the long term. The company will report its fiscal third-quarter earnings today, and then investors will have an update on the success of all segments of the company.
