DIS Second WindA second wind is apparent at the top of the second scallop (curve in yellow)
This may push the price to the previous rejection point in red
Really does look like an appetizing long from here
The 200MA demonstrates this second wind
Disney
DIS ER run up DIS ER run up ... after a month long correction, Disney is getting close to breaking out of this downtrend channel and looking to make a push back to ATH. Watching for a clean break of the downtrend with an increase in volume and a hold above 173.50 to confirm reversal. With Strong growth in the streaming service and as they continue to push out great news with new film plans (marvel, star wars, etc) I'm very optimistic on DIS er!
For option contracts I am Looking at 180C for 2/19. (liquid contract: medium risk/ high reward)
$DIS doesn't look good hereHello my dear padawans of the charts. I hope everybody had a good weekend and is ready to start what promises to be a good week for the markets given the amount of (good) stocks that are reporting earnings this week. DIS is not among of them, but its ER is coming soon on 02/11. Of course things can change, specially with earnings around the corner (and Disney+ getting so many subscribers), but things are not looking good for DIS here. It is looking weaker than in my previous analysis (link below).
TECHNICALS
In my previous chart DIS was above the long term resistance. However, it failed to stay there. It is now below that resistance and struggling to move back up. It found support on the 14/21 emas but didn't move much to the upside. It is sitting on the 21-ema now after having broken below it a few times. Other things to take into account:
1. MACD crossed over bearish and is moving down to the 0 level. If it crosses below it could be very bearish.
2. The 14 ema is about to cross bearish under the 21 ema, another potentially strong bearish signal.
2. ADX is curling down very sharply, meaning the current uptrend is getting weak.
3. -DI is moving up while +DI is moving down, meaning a change in sentiment is happening.
4. RSI is still above the 50 level--where it is sitting--but has been moving down steadily
5. The gap was still not filled. Gaps don't need to be filled necessarily but since DIS reached ATH and is in retracement, it seems that this is an exhaustion gap, which most of the times is filled.
BEARISH SCENARIO
If DIS keeps going down, it will probably find support on the 50ema and some fib levels on the way, so expect price action there and even reversal depending on other factors. If you are a long term holder I think anywhere on/below the 50ema is a good buy opportunity. Keep in mind that the price could fill the gap and continue going lower but if you are in for the long term this should not scare you. You would still be getting the stock at a discount from ATH. You can DCA your way into it as well. (Not financial advise).
NEUTRAL/BULLISH SCENARIO
DIS could benefit from potential euphoria generated by the earnings of big players this week and continue its sideways move (or even move up). Given the indicators, I am bearish in the short term but there are other forces on the market that cannot be ignored.
Again, keep in mind earnings is right around the corner, so plan to trade around it as well in the coming weeks.
Safe trades my friends!
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Flag Pattern on DIS, We are ready to execute this setupToday, we will show our view on DIS; let's start with the Weekly view:
The price is above two key channels, and we don't spot any other Dynamic resistance zone for the price
On the 4hs chart:
We can see a clear Flag pattern supported on the secondary broken ascending channel. Based on the Fibo extensions we can draw, we expect a bullish movement first towards 200 and then 225
The green line represents our activation level for the setup; We will set our stop loss below the Flag pattern and break even when the price reaches a risk-reward ratio of 1:1
Disney's price on a crossroadHolidays are over and it is time to get back into the markets, refreshed and with new strength.
I am making another revision of Disney as the price on Friday closed at the internal trend support and played out the small bearish flag. Volumes were higher than Thursday as there were 12.23M shares traded against 8.951M shares on the day before Friday. The activity had increased before the weekends, but with that dip buying before the close, it looked more like long position covering.
Now two options are on the table that will be crucial if confirmed by the price action.
1. Price dips inside the $165 - $169 zone and we may see potential trend-reversing price action;
2. The zone holds and Disney'sprice resumes inside the uptrend with the broader market;
Be cautious on the first trading day after the break.
An optimistic future for DIS As vaccines continue to roll out and talks on potential shutdowns to come, entertainment stocks continue to rally. Overall Im still bullish on Disney. News Recently announced operating hours through out now to March. and as Cinema stocks continue to get bashed with this pandemic, Dis streaming service continues to grow. Post pandemic world will be very optimistic for Mickey Mouse. I'm looking at PT of 190 on the breakout of the triangle, under 175 we can see possible bounce near 172 to complete an a-e correction. 200 Mental target
Will AMC do what GME did?One of the largest theater chains in the world took a beating with their financials due to this pandemic. If you are optimistic and enjoy the cinemas, you could think that with vaccines and a possible healthier post-pandemic world, where everything goes back to normal... that AMC can recover. Which is certainly why I have this in my long term investing portfolio. However this is very risky as they are on the brink of bankruptcy, a major business plan revision would be needed. Now... recently it was up nearly 7% Friday with no related news to the business... over 100 million volume came in (3-4x avg vol), this could be the pump situation that happened with GME and we could see a big move coming shortly so this gives couple lotto options that i would consider
1) Buy shares here, sell at the possible resistance I have on the chart or ride it up to my pt (medium risk: low reward)
2) $1C for 1/2023 now around 200$ (I'm already in, low risk: high reward leap)
3) $3C 1/29 .42 lotto or $5C 1/29 .23 (low risk: high reward)
Disclaimer: Im not a financial advisor
DIS on support of trendline and 21-emaHello my young padawans. Behind the scenes of the EV frenzy, biotechs, and SPACS the good old DIS has discretely (maybe no so discretely if you look at the past month but sort of behind the scenes) made its move up and reached new ATH on the hopes of vaccine and prophylactics, and other branches of the conglomerate such as Disney+. If you have been buying throughout the pandemic like I did you should be sitting very comfortably now.
It seems though that the spike up lost a little of its steam. After the peak DIS dropped a little and has been trading sideways for a few days. Today it breached the long term trendline (yellow) and found support on the 21-ema on the daily. The price closed above the trendline, which is a good sign but other indicators are not very positive:
1. MACD is curling down with bearish crossover of MA and signal;
2. ADX is curling down fast as well which shows the trend is getting weaker;
3. +DI and -DI are converging bearish (red line moving up and green line moving down; quite sharply actually)
4. There is a gap that has not been filled yet
This doesn't mean the price will go down but there is a slight bearish bias at the moment. A pullback would be an opportunity to start a position of add more if you already have one, or at least that is what I am doing.
Safe trades!
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***The ideas shared here are my opinion, not financial advise to place trades. Please do your own research before buying/selling stocks***
Update on Disney: price stalling at the topsIn my previous post, I've mentioned that Disney is dangerously high and that technicals are screaming for a correction. Some time has past and the price is still stalled around the highs. RSI has already dipped quite below the 70 line and MACD's crossover is spreading wider. The histogram is increasing as well. We have a small subdued bearish flag (the figure marked in red lines) that with Yesterday's close it has been breached, though not with a strong intention. Two key zones (the squares in blue) remain to be passed to speak about testing the trend and eventual reversal of that uptrend. The target of the figure is implying for a potential move towards the gap level and the trend support zone.
$DIS DailyRsi overbought, with bearish macd cross. Large gap below, does it get filled? Will enter short on a break below 169.68. Gap fill coincides with 50d as well.
Disney reaching it's peak?$DIS - waiting for price action to confirm a potential correction;
RSI divergence and in OB zone;
MACD divergence and a bearish crossover;
Leading way ahead of the SPX as a reference.
DIS to 190?Levels annotated on the chart, Ive updated Disney the past few weeks and almost every week is new ath, Set a tight stop loss as its at all time highs and looks to be coming to an end of its parabolic move, If Dis+ continues to display great news and brings in new content Dis can keep pushing and create new highs. Mickey giving us Disney Land money!
DIS is Santa Mouse coming out this week? Disney had some good movement last week, looking for some nice movement this week with the Santa rally. Look for an entry near my wave c correction, we could see a dip or it could ignore that wave c and have a bullish push pm. Look for an entry near 171.11 under that we could go for that gap fill down at 170.48. Major breakout of 175.84 and we'll see ATH again!
Safe plays: 175C 180C (1/8, 1/15)
lotto play/ day trade: 175C, 180C (12/31) very risky lotto 185C 12/31 .17c
160 in Jan 2021?I expect DIS to consolidate or start the drop during the last week of December.
I look for a low to be formed by week of Jan 11, 2021 (target 153-160). Alternatively, with positive market conditions, we could see a final rally to 185 in Jan, before the drop to 153-160 in Feb 2021 close to earnings.
EPS still negative, so I don't expect earnings anticipation to prove to be a positive catalyst at this stage.
Good luck!
DIS 12/21/2020 LongDIS gapped up on heavy volume over a significant level that it was bumping up against & has spent six days digesting these higher prices.
I bought a half-sized position on Monday (12/21/20) when the market gapped lower due to a new COVID strain mutation in the U.K. I believe that the market is over COVID & has been for some time. Unless there is a negative development on the vaccine front, Pumpin' Powell is going to be able to continue inflating the asset bubble. The DIS pullback also coincided nicely with a bounce off of the 9-day EMA.
My initial stop is below the low of the gap-up day. I'm looking to add larger size on a break of Monday's highs circa $172. I would also be willing to add on a false break & quick reclaim of Monday's lows, at which point I would move stops up to just below the false break.
DIS flagging 175 incoming (intra day update)DIS finally moving could see another leg up during power hour, needs to hold 173.50
DIS Can it keep pushing?Shorting DIS doesn't last long, one thing I've learned is to never short the mouse! the Mickey cult is ridiculous. Good reversal today, bounce right off my .786 at 167.98. The only reason we went down yesterday was because the price downgrade but Bears premiums were crushed today. We could see another leg up to 188.50 by next week. Potential price upgrade tomorrow could help this momentum carry, on top of the great plans Disney has with marvel and Disney+. Great things in the future for Disney and once parks open up ill be super bullish.
My plan: 180C 12/24 (great OI and Vol)
Key levels:
Support: 169.29, under 165.36 i can see a bounce near 163,
Resistance 177.47
$DIS The volume goes crazy up when Disney gaps upI Bought Disney before the pandemic, it went crazy down since then and was hard to hold it but luckily I believed in the company and averaged out at the lower price, Finally, it paid off.
Don't FOMO Buy -- Follow the Mickey Mouse Years - Cycle Analysis
Disney is exploding on big news today (December 12). But don't get in now. Follow the cycle.
NYSE:DIS usually peaks around 60 days before earnings according to the cycles.... December 12 is exactly 60 days before earnings.
Blue Chanel: Disney's safest (and most sensible) bullish entry would be when Disney returns in the blue channel marked. Disney moved in this channel from 1998 to 2000, until it broke down. Disney only returned in this bullish channel by 2014 and has maintained the bull run in this channel fairly consistently since then. I believe Disney will return back in this channel by April 2021.
I like Disney, I'm long-term bullish on the company, but not at the price it is trading at right now.
Don't let Mickey steal your money, traders.
Good luck!
