Disney
DIS - Disney+ Bull FlagFans of Disney are excited by the debut of the Disney+ streaming service tomorrow (I'll be watching The Mandalorian) but a bull flag seems to have been taking shape on the weekly chart since March. We have to see if it can break out of the flag pattern or if it needs another bit of consolidation first. Also, notice how the stock has found support along the 200-day EMA & the 50-day EMA more recently.
$167 is my initial price target, which is the 100% Fibonacci Extension level. My next target would be $176 which is around the price level suggested by the bull flag pattern.
DISNEY Momentum Strategy|End of Cycle[MEDIUM-TERM]TREND ANALYSISDisney(DIS) : Series on Equities #2 (3-4 minutes read)
This will be a short and simple T.A, just because it's Disney . Their ratios, products, management etc, speak for themselves and their fundamentals. I will just go through the technicals- most of the fundamental risks that aren't idiosyncratic to Disney are covered in my previous posts(Links #1&2) .
Since the 2009 lows, Disney has outperformed the market by quite a margin( about 900% up to be precise ). Let's get on with the technicals. There are three main structural support areas: 115(primary), 90-80(Recession Primary), 65-70(0.618 Fib) . Disney is currently in a textbook example of Elliott wave extensions, where it hit the targets for each wave with maximum precision . As a usual momentum continuation from Wave III, Disney entered a momentum channel that's currently ongoing. Recently, Disney hit the top of the channel (2.62 EW extension), that is one of the targets for Wave V.
Supplemental Quarterly chart 14 Q's EMA key bullish trendline support
Obviously, this implies a bullish trend continuation, and yet I am short? To me it's quite a straightforward question, how far up can Disney go, and is the risk worth it? The answer to that question, in my opinion is that at this point of the cycle(Link #2), the risk is just not worth it . To make my point clear, this is a decision tree from TESLA (TSLA) that could also be applied to Disney. You can read more about it in my next post about Tesla.
Tesla Decision Tree and four major Auto Manufacturers' stock performances since Trump took office.
To wrap this post up, obviously the decision tree is very simplified and in reality it's much more complex than that( the events aren't mutually exclusive ). At some point the momentum channel for Disney is going to break down . Although, this might just be a good opportunity to buy for the long term . Considering how current trends are moving and how people spend their leisure time in entertainment and gaming, without a doubt, Disney as one of the market leaders, will continue to grow in the long term.
This is it for Disney(Dis), hope that it's useful. If you found the TA interesting and aligned to your analysis, don't be so reserved- give this post a thumbs up or comment your view on Disney.
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1. FedEx(FDX) Fundamental Analysis:
2. Fed Rates Supercycle study:
Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money.
ROKU - Will it fill the gap?Today's market showed some breath, specially for software. Which is normally a growth>value story.
$118 is the closing gap resistance.
Important market sentiment:
Tomorrow October 4th will be a deciding move, as we get the employment report before the open (8:30am ET).
With recent continued weak manufacturing data, this employment data could tell us if a recession is coming, and more importantly (short-term), if the FOMC is going to cut rates again.
The market has the cut now priced with a probability of 90% at the end of this month.
$DIS cofirmed Head and Shoulders; expect more downsideVolume analysis matches up beautifully with the H&S, and there's also a bearish divergence on the RSI too. All of this points to a reversal. The measured move of the H&S pattern has price falling to $115 which should act as pretty strong support, and this also falls on a important trend line as well. Holding & confirming this as support is cruciall if price is to continue upward
H&S pattern forming on DIS, could head lower.Disney (DIS) is currently forming an H&S pattern, which is generally a topping formation pattern. Based on what I see, I think Disney could retrace down toward 117.50-120; as it would coincide with a gap in the price action (around 117.50 or so) and it would test a potential bullish S/R flip around that 120 zone that acted as resistance for awhile, as shown by the red box.
-This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.
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Disney Head and Shoulders Reversal + Buy zoneA couple major things for this chart. 1. The Head and shoulders pattern signifying a break of the support line that has been tested multiple times recently. 2. The declining volume with price rising = bearish. 3. The 26 Week EMA being tested for the 3rd time. As well as a gap that needs to be filled (on the daily chart, we're looking at the weekly) at around $118-126. I would expect a pullback to the .618 Fib zone. And would be looking for potential long entries there.
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