DISNEY Revisiting a 10 year Support LineThis Technical Analysis is on Disney (DIS), on the 2 Week timeframe.
Our Current Price action is TESTING SUPPORT on this MASSIVE Decade Long SUPPORT LINE.
The 1st time we have ever tested SUPPORT on this was September 29th, 2014.
Highlighted by the RED circles, everytime we've tested this we've had some sort of Price Bounce.
The Most massive gains were from the Bottom of the COVID Crash to the TOP @ approx. $202.00
A Gain of about 154%.
It was also a more evident time to buy as the RSI gave hints along with some other indicators.
Another one being the GOLDEN CROSS where 2 week 21 EMA CROSSED Above 2 week 50 SMA .
Whats happening now?
Currently our 2 week candle, has not yet closed. It will do so August 14th. We will give more clues then. If we maintain support thats GOOD, If we see ourselves below it, and CONFIRM BELOW that would be VERY BAD. This would mean we have broken a 10 year SUPPORT LINE.
We have also had a DEATH CROSS, which is when 21 EMA CROSS below the 50 SMA. This often times causes price to fall as we've recently seen. The moving averages currently seems like there pointing downwards, indicating that price can still drop more.
I would like to see the Moving Averages to flatten out at 180 degrees. To have this happen price needs to bounce from here.
Price is also currently in a downward channel.NOTE how the lower trend line of the channel is below the MAJOR RESISTANCE.
It can be possible that we test this.
Notice the BLACK ARROWS on the RSI and MACD. If you relate them to the lower trend line of the downward channel on Price action. This shows a BULLISH DIVERGENCE. Which is a sign of potential BULLISH MOVE UP.
Bullish Divergence = When Price action shows LOWER LOWS but the indicators show HIGHER LOWS. Usually means price is lagging behind the indicators and eventually PRICE will increase to catch up to the indicators. In normal instances, price moves in sync with indicators.
If PRICE moves BELOW the SUPPORT, its possible we touch this area indicated by the BLACK ARROW, which coincides with the horizontal black line that touches the previous candle wicks. This would put the BULLISH DIVERGENCE at play. Look to see in the upcoming weeks what happens.
Some danger signs are seen in the indicators:
RSI -> Currently our ORANGE RSI Line as moved below the BLACK Moving Average. If you look left it has always been associated with price drops. If we continue to stay below, risk of price drop remains.
MACD-> Notice how the size of the GREEN histograms have been decreasing, indicating a slow down on MOMENTUM. If we don't see bigger GREEN histograms print, next likely thing is the appearrance of RED Histograms which will indicate increased probability of PRICE going down.
ADX -> Highlighted zone shows RED LINE above GREEN. This indicates that bearish momentum is present. As long as RED line is ABOVE GREEN, likelyhood of bearish momentum and price falling is probable.
CONCLUSION:
Disney has reached the CRITICAL SUPPORT line for the 5th time in the 10 year history of this SUPPORT LINE. Everytime when it did so as seen in previous history, its been known to be decent area to BUY. Is it a good area to buy? In my opinion its hard to tell in this moment. For one, we should wait till the close of this CURRENT 2 week candle on the 14th of August. Something to note, everytime we test a trendline, support or resistance, each time it gets weaker. Keeping this in mind, with the warning signs in the indicators and a potential BULLISH DIVERGENCE, a scenario that can be possible: we break it, to test the lower trend line of the Downward channel, only to have prices MOVE BACK UP. But its important to state that this doesn't have to happen either. We need to be patient and observe what is to come in the coming weeks. Zooming into the smaller timeframes, can also give more concrete short-term clues on direction. Stay tuned for updates on other timeframes.
Thank you for your time! Please do support this idea and my work by boosting, following and commenting. Follow for updates and ideas on other trade-ables.
If you have any questions do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. When trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
