$ARKG - Weekly TF AnalysisThe macro count is pretty clear. We're below the 38.2% fib of the impulsive move from the covid lows, and approaching the 50% fib as well as the bottom of the channel. The weekly RSI is lower then even the covid lows of march 2020. In fact the RSI hasn't been this low since inception in 2016.
As with all of ARK's ETF's these are long term plays. If you want biotech exposure, this is a great time to buy this ETF.
Ask yourself, do you think the healthcare industry is likely to be more profitable over the next 5 years or less profitable? Do you think innovations in gene editing, DNA sequencing and mRNA technology is going to increase or have we peaked in this era of perpetual covid?
Disruption
$ARKK - Weekly TF analysis-Primary W4 target zone (38.2 - 50)
-Nearing channel bottom
-Reached 1st fib target for Y leg of W4 (-23.6)
-Confluent support of 38.2 fib and channel bottom
-Weekly RSI at march 2020 covid lows
-Downside risk defined at 72.50
From the looks of it, we might be nearing a bottom on growth stocks. Keep in mind this is a weekly chart so if we do continue down, it could drag out for another few weeks. However, downside risk is defined at the 50% fib, at 72.50.
I would start building a position from here and continue building as long as ARKK is above 72.5. ARK's time horizons are 5 years, and market jitters will last 5 months, maybe a year if we're really fucked.
Ask yourself, did Cathie Wood and her team suddenly become stupid over night, or does the market work in cycles?
LMND. This Insurance Disruptor will DOUBLE in the Next 3 Months!NYSE:LMND is the new and promising tech company in the insurance market. It's beyond promising; it's already a product with proven scalability and disruptive features to the aging insurance business model. Lemonade follows a creative insurance model. To understand this, consider the conventional insurance business model where companies are incentivized to NOT approve claims of their customers. That's because less money given to customers means more profits for the shareholders. This places you, the customer, and them in a constant state of dispute. It is a flawed business model. Lemonade flips that around and removes the incentive completely by introducing one simple rule. Their profit margin is fixed. They will always take 25% of what you pay. The remaining 75% will be used either to cover claims, or to be donated to a charity organization of your choice. This way, they have no incentive to deny your claim. At the same time, you have no incentive to claim more than what you think is fair because you will be reducing what goes to the charity of your choice.
On top of that, Lemonade is a tech company that employs Artificial Intelligence to manage claims. You will be surprised, and perhaps you shouldn't be, how well an AI can catch a fraudster trying to falsely claim some insurance money. This already cuts the cost by a huge margin and allows for faster growth and better scalability.
Currently, Lemonade has proven that their platform works and that it can expand. They are slowly covering more areas than just pet insurance and household insurance. They are expanding to more states in the US and countries around the world. And all of that at a minimal cost of human resource. And the brilliant thing is that the more they expand, the more data they will have to train their AI, and the more accurate and efficient the process would be. That is what disruption looks like. It's new. It flips the model around. It works. It cuts cost by a big margin. It scales. It grows before you even know it. Think Apple, Amazon, Tesla.
Now after this brief introduction, let's get into the chart. I've drawn this ascending channel a week ago and I am surprised that it is holding price this well. This shows strong demand added to the higher lows in RSI. I believe this momentum will accelerate in the coming few months. I've drawn targets based on Fibonacci of the most recent swing.
According to the channel and the Fib levels, this stock can reach $222 by 22 Feb. That's 80% gain in 48 days. I believe that in 90 days, this stock will have doubled, and by the end of the year it will have 5X'd. This is a stock to buy and hold, not a stock to trade. Good luck!
Lemonade is the future of insuranceLMND is my favourite investment stock lately, as it has a lot of potential, it's going to disrupt the insurance market with it's totally new and innovative strategy and operation method. This is the fintech in banking (like Revolut or N26) or a Tesla in cars or the smartphone itself in communication! Seriously, I'm not hyping the stock, do some research and as you understand, you'll get convinced pretty quick. So definitely disruptive and much much more efficient and way smarter than the whole insurance industry in and out. Read about it and you'll see. It's not a trading setup, but a long term investment idea (3-5 years for me at least) but would be better for 10+ years. Might take time to spread worldwide but investors and the whales too might discover it soon and you'll find yourself in the "I'm late again" situation as it was with Tesla and NIO with lots and lots of investors. So, Lemonade is going to be huge.
I have an entry point of $47 but I could accumulate 2 times so far @ $86, @ $118 and @$107 just now at this current pull back again, but if you are thinking long term, you can buy any time when it's a red day or whenever you have spare money, don't even bother with technicals, as I said, it's a long term investment and it can brake out abruptly.
My experience tells me that even though I know how to do technical analysis, the fundamental analysis is much much more important in investing (and I'm not talking about day trading here). Because if I didn't do any trades during this year, but only investments according to my original ideas I would have much more profit by now, even after a year, such short period of time (as of today my performance for this past exactly 12 months is +209% and I'm in a correction just now). So no, I'm complaining, because I'm not, but just saying if I didn't work at all, but only invest according to my ideas, I would have about 3x more profit just now (better not count). Oh and I never got lucky so far. Not even once during these several hundreds of trades. Quite the opposite, whenever I did something out of sentiment or by a gut feeling, I lost on it. Can you imagine? So, technical analysis pays out but investing pays more if you know the right time for the right stock. Not easy, so I give you some insight below if interested.
Here's below my little summary so you get the picture about my thinking. Also I show all my ideas with numbers so you see how I did and would invest in such environment:
Probably I’ll post this text several times (under each ticker) that I mention below, as the meaning of the writing necessitate it.
Introduction and the mindset:
8-10% of my wealth is in the US stock market, other almost 90% in real estate in Europe. As for the stocks, you got to have a diversified portfolio in my opinion. As my experience tells me you can be lucky sometimes and you also gonna be unlucky at any given time (and unexpected all the time). So one can not count on luck and/or feelings (I call it being on Hope-ium). This is the reason for the need of diversification, especially in this unprecedented (word of 2020, right?) environment. Lots of analysts say the market is overvalued, stock prices are overstretched (the SPY and tech at least). I think this is partially true and it does matter sometimes, it does not matter too much other times and/or instances as you’ll see soon below. OK, too much talk already, I will show you my portfolio and talk about my ideas with numbers, entry points, targets and even risks.
My past fundamental ideas (as for reputation, not a bluffer):
In 2019 I only had 2 ideas, both based on my fundamental analysis and they were for investment (so, not for short term trade ideas). Tesla and Bitcoin. For TSLA my entry plan and buying advice was @ $426 in December (pre-split price, so if you are new, divide it by 5). For BTC I stated that I recon we have to wait for the beginning of 2020 (according to my plan it was most likely for about February) and buy the expected dip - according to my readings - at $5500. Of course Covid came and things got crazy, but we didn’t expect that. Lots of losses and learning, but here I share some useful thoughts and ideas. I learned technical analysis, but these fundamental ideas born according to my own research, also I didn’t know any known influencer back then.
My recent/actual ideas and how to do it:
I divide my stock portfolio for 5 sectors in a way that if even 3 or 4 of them fails, the other 1 or 2 will pay out so much, I wouldn’t mind and never lose. My sectors watched: 1.REIT (they will pay dividends) 2.Energy (they will recover) 3.Commodities (we need them whatever happens) 4.Biotech (necessity too) 5.Insurance (self explanatory). The SPY is driven by tech, so I left it out for now (with a small exception), as no need to risk now, because tech is a bit overstretched at the moment and even if it’s going way higher, my ideas will too. But if tech is not going higher, I will still make profits (hence the so called ‘K-shape recovery’). Not easy to do this in such overvalued levels but not everything is expensive and also note, that not every cheap stock is going to die off, so the main buying habit of mine is what George Gammon likes also: “I buy a dollar for fifty cents” if I may quote him here. This idea means that I buy according to the actual (and my own) valuation, plus the current stock price of the company and not according to the momentum or the horde, in other words the ‘best performers’ according to popular Youtubers, similar influencers (or the mainstream media for that matter), as history shows that the majority loses and the minority wins (at least during those crazy unprecedented times like now when soon everyone is in the stock market examples I analysed: 1929, 2000, 2008). Doesn’t that tell you that it would be wiser to be on the side of Michael Burry during the 2008 stock market rally instead of everyone else? Yeah, I know, it’s not easy and also, “this time will be different” :D But jokes aside, I believe at least in a way this time it actually could be different, the task is to understand fundamentals, think a lot and make smart decisions based on your own research. And the more you read and think, the closer you might get to some advantage and solution that will pay off highly likely in every possible scenario in the future.
Why and how? A simple enough hint of mine for example is, if a stock is a ‘top performer’ that fact might actually mean it already did what we expected from it to do (otherwise why the term?), so you kind of could already be late, but you would never know. This is when FOMO comes in to play, beware! Sure, you can be lucky and participate in a bubble just like how it was with Yahoo in 1999-2000 but only afterwards (years later) could you for sure realize that it wasn’t a good idea to buy in around 1999 as you didn’t sell at the top (2nd of January, 2000) did you? Even though the “long term fundamentals” that they talked about back then, they all turned out to be 100% true, because tech went higher for sure, Apple is still a winning company, we are surrounded with computers, smartphones and it's all tech and internet and websites, we still use yahoo mail every day and listen to yahoo finance and so on. Tech is cool and king. Still, the dot com bubble was bad and painful for the majority. See, everyone was right except for the ones who bought in at the high prices because of FOMO. As you see now, those ‘top performers’ worked very well for those who bought in at the bottom or even half way to the top for swing trades (but that was just before you heard about them and not really any time later). So, the problem is that no one ever knows when is the top of a bubble or any kind of run up that is driven by sentiment if it’s not a slow and steady growth corresponding both the fundamentals and financials in other words the real growth of a company. So the solution is to better find one that is trusted and/or have future and not going bankrupt soon and is beaten down to the ground. That’s when you buy in. Warren teaches this too, but this is my own thinking and just a coincidence that the old man says it too. So, I reveal here all my stocks and investment picks that I either bought and/or had planned or advised to buy so far with my first entry prices during 2020 (not placed in order of any sort, but just random). The majority is investment for 3-5 years the exceptions are the swing trades (I mark them “swing trade” as they are not investments):
TSLA again @ $358 (pre split); NYMT @ $1; IVR anywhere below $4; NIO anywhere below $5 (swing trade); HEXO @ $0.74 (pre split); ASTC @ $1.82 (swing trade); CDEV @ $1; LMND @ $47; TXMD @ $1.2; LXRX @ 1.93; GNW @ $3.26 (swing trade); WPG @ $1 (pre split); CRSP @ $60; gold below $1700; AAL @ $10 (swing trade); AMC @ $2.84 (swing trade); BTC @ $5500 for investment (and was swing trade too, from $7000 to $9000 because I had to pay property tax and did it from the profit).
CVS attempting rising wedge breakoutCVS has been testing the upper trend line of its rising wedge, which it has breached a couple times in the last two days. The last three days have also seen heavy call option buying activity. CVS has a very bullish 9.4/10 Equity StarMine rating, and it's rated as extremely undervalued by S&P Capital IQ.
Investors are betting, in part, that CVS will benefit from the bankruptcy of Fred's, a major competitor. CVS is also now going to be selling a CBD (cannabis) product from SocialCBD. Plus, CVS has big plans to open 50 HealthHUB stores, low-cost clinics that will leverage artificial intelligence as a diagnostic tool. This could help disrupt the cost bubble in the healthcare industry.
I don't know that the rising wedge will necessarily break today, but I do think that CVS should see continued strength in the coming year. This is a good long-term buy and hold.
Reinventing the grocery industry, INS ecosystem.Online grocery shopping is growing fast and the market is ready for disruption.
Personally I like going to the store to pick up my groceries, however, online grocery is hypeable and I've purchased some INS for a very reasonable price.
Fundamental
The goal of INS is to connect manufacturers and consumers , in a decentrailzed way.
Sounds very exciting. Though, I have no idea if they will be able to steal a piece of the market and put this project into a succesful reality.
But INS got hypefactor, its on the right exchanges & its very new.
41.5M raised in token sale. In fact, it raised its hard cap limit . Token sale ended on December 25.
Today we are sitting at 128M marketcap.
Considering that the limit was reached, and that INS got added to exchanges when we had blood in the streets, I believe I got a good price :)
The founders of INS also founded Instasmart.
With 200+ employees & over 100,000 orders delivered!
Shortly put, this could be a sleeping giant, but I am keeping my expecations at reasonable levels.
If you want to read more on INS, I recommend this article from Retail Week:
"Retail Week Live: INS founder Peter Fedchenkov – What will grocery look like without the grocers?"
Technical
Very new chart, hard to make any TA from it.
Put up a fib tool, and setting target to about 3-4x from here :)
I bought a couple days ago at 4.7 USD and notified Koinworld.
DAO´dWell, needless to saj. The DAO quite disrupted our pan there... Pah!
I do not share the overly negative reactions to this pretty much "minor" (in crypto standards) incident which has been managed and handled very professional by the Ethereum developers. Nayways, ATH is obv canceled in the projected time period. Quite the contrary, values in the low 1400s seem to have become the destination under the current circumstances.
Looking for a nice short entry...
Target: low 1400s
Happy Tarding... And be kind to one another..
