Disruptive
TSLA - Bullish 2022 option flowTSLA recently reported great earnings on Oct 20th and beat both eps (20%) and revs (5%). ER killed option premiums, unless you bought ITM
There was a massive buy order friday for the Feb 2022 $925 calls for $60 million total value.
TSLA is 9.5% of cathie woods ARKK fund.
We are in blue sky breakout territory, so that's what this $60 mill option flow is betting on. Maybe, they get upgrades next week?
LMND. This Insurance Disruptor will DOUBLE in the Next 3 Months!NYSE:LMND is the new and promising tech company in the insurance market. It's beyond promising; it's already a product with proven scalability and disruptive features to the aging insurance business model. Lemonade follows a creative insurance model. To understand this, consider the conventional insurance business model where companies are incentivized to NOT approve claims of their customers. That's because less money given to customers means more profits for the shareholders. This places you, the customer, and them in a constant state of dispute. It is a flawed business model. Lemonade flips that around and removes the incentive completely by introducing one simple rule. Their profit margin is fixed. They will always take 25% of what you pay. The remaining 75% will be used either to cover claims, or to be donated to a charity organization of your choice. This way, they have no incentive to deny your claim. At the same time, you have no incentive to claim more than what you think is fair because you will be reducing what goes to the charity of your choice.
On top of that, Lemonade is a tech company that employs Artificial Intelligence to manage claims. You will be surprised, and perhaps you shouldn't be, how well an AI can catch a fraudster trying to falsely claim some insurance money. This already cuts the cost by a huge margin and allows for faster growth and better scalability.
Currently, Lemonade has proven that their platform works and that it can expand. They are slowly covering more areas than just pet insurance and household insurance. They are expanding to more states in the US and countries around the world. And all of that at a minimal cost of human resource. And the brilliant thing is that the more they expand, the more data they will have to train their AI, and the more accurate and efficient the process would be. That is what disruption looks like. It's new. It flips the model around. It works. It cuts cost by a big margin. It scales. It grows before you even know it. Think Apple, Amazon, Tesla.
Now after this brief introduction, let's get into the chart. I've drawn this ascending channel a week ago and I am surprised that it is holding price this well. This shows strong demand added to the higher lows in RSI. I believe this momentum will accelerate in the coming few months. I've drawn targets based on Fibonacci of the most recent swing.
According to the channel and the Fib levels, this stock can reach $222 by 22 Feb. That's 80% gain in 48 days. I believe that in 90 days, this stock will have doubled, and by the end of the year it will have 5X'd. This is a stock to buy and hold, not a stock to trade. Good luck!
Big move coming when $TSLA wakes upTA,
- Volatility contraction pattern(VCP)
- Volatility reducing= Supply drying up(see previous 2 instances). 35% drop followed up by a 24% drop and the latest, a 9% drop.
- Short term trend breakout but lacked sufficient volume
- Trendline support
-Oversold for Tesla standards
-Longer it consolidates, more explosive the move
-RS improving
FA,
- Read Elon's book
Entry : Break of 462 for a trade /Now for long term
ARKK high buying pressureAfter hitting its final long long term support line, ARKK has finally bounced off the support. The buying pressure was so strong that it reclaimed its previous support at the 87.75 level. The RSI tells the same story. Expect a continued uptrend, until it hits the top of the channel, At which point we will either see the price breakout or fall back to the floor.
Also, Watch for the RSI to hit either trendline to get an idea of which way the price is headed. In the past, the RSI hitting a support level has been bullish for the ETF. When the RSI has the the long term resistance line, it has always been bearish in the short-medium term. The worst drop In Price, after the RSI hit resistance, was right below the March lows.
As for fundamentals, I like this etf because it has been a top performer, as far as ETFs go, for the past year. I also like this etf because it gives you good exposure to Tesla, without directly investing in the riskiness of Tesla. Even I admit TSLA could be trading at pretty high valuations, so it helps that this etfs invests in other “disruptive companies” such as Square (SQ).
Fastly : Wyckoff Pattern springLooks like Fastly is at spring on Wyckoff Patterns.
Likely catalyst to push it over the last point of support could be any news from Tik Tok acquisition or a short squeeze
Link : school.stockcharts.com
Concerns,
- Head and shoulders
- High volume on red days compared to green
I'm long Fastly.
Origin protocol: Catch a falling knife?Bit of a knife catch
Simple TA,
- Demand tail at trendline support with lower volume. Go to the 4H chart and see what I mean. The volume is actually decreasing signalling a reduction in supply.
- Higher lows.
Concerns,
- Could fall further so invest with money you're willing to lose. High risk high reward.
- When it falls, usually price declines for 2-3 days so might be better waiting till it shows some sign of recovery
An alternative way to play $GWGR and $IIPR. #420FA,
- 6.8% dividend
- $IIPR 10% weighting
- $GWGR 9.56% weighting
- Cannabis > alcohol
- Cannabis has the potential to disrupt big tobacco
- Lower stigma + more acceptance in society
- Gary Vee
TA,
- Reversing long term downtrend
-Daily MACD cross
- Short term moving average crossover
Nice play to get exposure to $IIPR and $GWGR.
Let's go 'Higher'.
$DDOG finally pulls back. Holding a key level.FA,
- Revenue up 87% YOY
- DBNRR(net retention rate) above 30%
- 63% of customers using 2 or more products
- Customers with ARR of $100k+ grew +89% YOY.
- Guidance of 62% revenue growth this quarter and 54% a full year.
- Gross margin>70%
- Rule of 40 fulfilled. 80% revenue growth- 4% EBIT margin = 76%.
- Good financial health
- Covid tailwinds
TA,
- The red levels are the daily levels. Daily candle rejected strongly( long-tail) off 72.15 and both the preceding candles closed above 75.00.
- Daily 120EMA
- RSI oversold
Price could very well go further down from here. I would look at entering again at the mid-'60s if so.
$WZR: Fintech hype+ Solid uptrendFA,
- FinTech Revolution (WZR left behind while the punters bet on BNPL)
- Loan origination spikes 48% in June 2020. Consistent uptrend
- Wisr Ecosystem up 52%
- 42.4 Million in Cash
- Great vision: Improve financial wellness in Australians.
- Strong support from NAB
- Good management team including CEO Anthony Nantes
- Cool name and logo ( It’s vital for long term success, Ask Peter Lynch)
TA,
- 5EMA and 10EMA above 150EMA
- Bottom trendline of Strong uptrend
- Ascending triangle( WZR has historically broken out higher from ascending triangles)
- Volume consolidation
- Strong monthly level support(white)
- RSI not overbought (RSI<50)
ILLUMINA (ILMN) potential breakout over resistance $372ILMN is one of the highest conviction picks by ARKK investments (ARKK). They invest in disruptive technology that could potentially change the world.
Another pick Invitae(NVTA) has a similar pattern and broke out recently.
Level exhaustion at the $372 level and a potential accumulation zone. A daily close above 372 would be bullish.
An overall bullish sentiment with the price well above the moving averages.
Some key metrics I looked at,
3Y revenue growth: 13.89%
ROIC: 14.22%
P/CF: 48.54
P/S: 15.48
DCF value: $162 (Simply Wall street)
PEG: 2.2X
Future growth: 26.8%
Historical growth: 17.6%
Rule of 40 = net margin + revenue growth = 29+13= 42 (42>40, OK)
Potential tailwinds,
- Leader by market share (More than 90%)
- Relatively new industry
- Covid19 accelerating genome revolution and health trends
- The decline in cost curve
NIO Bouncing Off Hard SupportPlenty of bad news coming out on this one. Cancellation of a factory in China, reduced government funding for electronic vehicle (EV) development, and profitability going ever into the abyss.
If this thing behaves anything like TSLA, we could see a nice bounce here. But why?
The EV space is rife with optimism and hope due to the disruptive nature of its products. Much like the internet disrupted traditional brick-and-mortar retailers and telecommunications companies, electronic vehicles threaten to disrupt traditional gas-powered transportation. Looking back on the performance of Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and the like over the past two decades, and considering their role in disrupting and creating markets, it is no wonder why investors associate electronic vehicles with a potentially bright future of massive returns. Disruption creates opportunity to take or create markets.
Yet there still remains the fundamental problem of profitability. If a company cannot turn a profit, how can it hope to be successful? Looking into the past, Amazon itself was unprofitable for the first 14 years that it was listed on the stock exchange, yet it was able to survive and thrive on the back of debt financing, steadily increasing its revenue and expanding its supply of collateral (equity). Regardless of the negative fundamental picture for new and disruptive companies, and the risk it poses on their survival, investors often look at them as massive opportunities.
For a stock like this, throw fundamentals out the window - this is the realm of human psychology. Hope, fear and greed will drive the price into insane extremes, and timed correctly, can be quite profitable. The only fundamental here is this: can it continue to acquire debt?
With all of that said, there is a setup to go long here. Hard support sits around 5.5 with plenty of upside on hopes and dreams beyond.